Opinion Pick 1... is Cam Rayner

[M Malice]

Meh. I watched that video earlier and as soon as I saw that I knew some posters would have a few things to say about it. The reality is 90% of draftees would "ideally" remain in their home state with family and friends. There are exceptions of course e.g. I reckon Matho was probably keen to move interstate and experience something new.

The reality is we have to go for the best talent and if that is Rayner we need to draft him. The reason being that you never know how draftees will react/settle once here anyway. Schache being the prime example as someone who seemed genuinely excited at the prospect of joining the Lions and 2 years later he is a Western Bulldog. Guys like LDU might send all the signals that they are happy to move to Brisbane, however, once here they may not like it. Rayner seems to be a confident young man who settles in well with whichever team he is placed in(I think Luke Power mentioned he has fit in seamlessly with all the teams he's played for e.g. Academy, Vic Metro ect.).

If we were to select Rayner or any of the other prospects for that matter, we should partner them up with former number 1 draft pick Luke Hodge to mentor them. With guidance/mentorship/leadership from the likes of Fagan/Beams/Zorko/Hodge I can really see guys like Rayner/LDU thriving and loving it here.

I agree with you lionshine, I have more of a concern with his often spoken about lack of endurance, if our recruiters see it as genetic and not fixable I can't see us selecting him.

Chris Fagan- We need mids who can get it on the inside and spread, your hybrid type.

 

[Kernel Kurtz]

Not a fan of what Cameron Rayner has to say near the end of this video.

"Ideally you'd like to stay in Melbourne but if I'm going to go interstate, ..,yer just play footy..so wouldn't change that at all".

Anyone else bur Rayner .
Rayner just put up a massive red go home light on his head and unless we are looking top 4 in 2 years he is not going to be here.
He's too entitled for me and not a pure mid.
LDU or Dow or..... .

 

[lionshine]

Anyone else bur Rayner .
Rayner just put up a massive red go home light on his head and unless we are looking top 4 in 2 years he is not going to be here.
He's too entitled for me and not a pure mid.
LDU or Dow or..... .

I wonder if Rayner has even ever been to Brisbane. He may come up here, fit in really well with the playing group, love the city/warmer weather, find a GF and absolutely love it here all in spite of initially preferring to stay in VIC. Meanwhile LDU may be excited to move to Brisbane, however, once here, struggle to fit in and end up seeking a move e.g. Schache. The point being I think we need to stop worrying about all the go home factor and over analysing all the little comments/quotes published in the media and instead just go for the best available player. Majority of our top draft picks want to leave anyway. We may as well just back ourselves in, go with the best talent, hope they stay, and if they do leave we hopefully get decent compensation. The club will be kicking themselves if they take a lesser talent to try and mitigate the go home risk and then have that player end up requesting a trade home anyway.

 

[Elixuh]

Once people say we shouldn’t draft a player because they are sending red flags, what is the logic behind saying we should therefore take player X? How can they be assessed as any more likely to stay?

 

[The Bear]

Of course Rayner wants to go pick 1. It gives more bargaining power for better contracts down the track. He is not worth us picking him number 1. Carlton, yes. Brisbane, no.

 

[Unique Name]

How much easy would it be if:
1st rounders = 4yr initial contract.
2nd rounders = 3yr intial contract.
3rd and after = 2yr inital contract.

 

[bungalow_bill]

How much easy would it be if:
1st rounders = 4yr initial contract.
2nd rounders = 3yr intial contract.
3rd and after = 2yr inital contract.

Would make little difference as contracts mean zilch if a player wants out. What is needed is fairer comp when a player leaves and this applies to all teams. The best way is to not allow players to nominate a club.

 

[Voss the boss]

To not pick people as they are flight risks doesn't sit with me at all. Take the gamble pick him up and see what happens. Now is the time to do it as we have a heap of young talent. If ever one was to stay it would be now as there is clear path moving forward with leaders in charge.

 

[jackess]

To not pick people as they are flight risks doesn't sit with me at all. Take the gamble pick him up and see what happens. Now is the time to do it as we have a heap of young talent. If ever one was to stay it would be now as there is clear path moving forward with leaders in charge.

I'd look for characteristics like being independent and mature.

 

[lionshine]

Who is Rayner's manager? Apparently his manager said he thinks 1st round draftees should receive an initial 4 year contract or something along those lines which could bode well for us in terms of getting Rayner to sign an extension in his first pre season like the Suns successfully did with Ainsworth.

 

[WhiteLionFeva]

Although we should be looking to take the best talent, I think the top four are so even that the perceived go home risk must become a consideration. Having said that, the only one of these that really excites is Rayner, with Dow a clear second.

 

[Kernel Kurtz]

Once people say we shouldn’t draft a player because they are sending red flags, what is the logic behind saying we should therefore take player X? How can they be assessed as any more likely to stay?

Probably put Ainsworth as an example of a top 3 draft pick that genuinely wanted to come to play for the Lions.
Not many like him I know , but there has to be some sort of feel about a player whether he is about himself or a big picture, and whether that picture could be Brisbane.
Just a little underwhelmed about getting pick 1 due to our problems I guess.
So take that on board and I go as far as saying any player in the top 5 category I'd take if he suited our needs and expressed a genuine desire to play for us.
we all know the southern clubs are going to chase our top 1 pick no matter who he is.
The super star thing doesn't impress me , I think there is the Selwood types out there are more down to earth, that's who imo we want .

 

[jackess]

Probably put Ainsworth as an example of a top 3 draft pick that genuinely wanted to come to play for the Lions.
Not many like him I know , but there has to be some sort of feel about a player whether he is about himself or a big picture, and whether that picture could be Brisbane.
Just a little underwhelmed about getting pick 1 due to our problems I guess.
So take that on board and I go as far as saying any player in the top 5 category I'd take if he suited our needs and expressed a genuine desire to play for us.
we all know the southern clubs are going to chase our top 1 pick no matter who he is.
The super star thing doesn't impress me , I think there is the Selwood types out there are more down to earth, that's who imo we want .

Maybe we should have offered the Suns pick 1 for Ainsworth?

 

[Gadzorks]

Not a fan of what Cameron Rayner has to say near the end of this video.

"Ideally you'd like to stay in Melbourne but if I'm going to go interstate, ..,yer just play footy..so wouldn't change that at all".

Post that on lions _ insider please.

 

[Gadzorks]

Meh. I watched that video earlier and as soon as I saw that I knew some posters would have a few things to say about it. The reality is 90% of draftees would "ideally" remain in their home state with family and friends. There are exceptions of course e.g. I reckon Matho was probably keen to move interstate and experience something new.

The reality is we have to go for the best talent and if that is Rayner we need to draft him. The reason being that you never know how draftees will react/settle once here anyway. Schache being the prime example as someone who seemed genuinely excited at the prospect of joining the Lions and 2 years later he is a Western Bulldog. Guys like LDU might send all the signals that they are happy to move to Brisbane, however, once here they may not like it. Rayner seems to be a confident young man who settles in well with whichever team he is placed in(I think Luke Power mentioned he has fit in seamlessly with all the teams he's played for e.g. Academy, Vic Metro ect.).

If we were to select Rayner or any of the other prospects for that matter, we should partner them up with former number 1 draft pick Luke Hodge to mentor them. With guidance/mentorship/leadership from the likes of Fagan/Beams/Zorko/Hodge I can really see guys like Rayner/LDU thriving and loving it here.

Hodge is here for 2 years. Hmmmm

 

[briztoon]

Maybe we should have offered the Suns pick 1 for Ainsworth?

lol I thought the exact same thing when I read the post you replied to.

 

[BulldogMurray]

How much easy would it be if:
1st rounders = 4yr initial contract.
2nd rounders = 3yr intial contract.
3rd and after = 2yr inital contract.

Was thinking long the same lines the other day however, a 4 yr contract for a Richard Tambling or some other spud? You are stuck with a dud. If you go back over the drafts since 2009 (that's as far as I looked) you will see the draft really is a lottery. Many misses in the first and second rounds and gems later in the draft.

 

[dlanod]

Post that on lions _ insider please.

I think that's not what that thread is for... and that's before going into assuming our recruitment team wouldn't have had more in-depth interviews with the guy.

 

[Kernel Kurtz]

Maybe we should have offered the Suns pick 1 for Ainsworth?

If we didn't pick up Charlie I wouldn't be upset by that .
Only thing is with Rocky gone , kind of need a top shelf mid.

 

[Gadzorks]

I think that's not what that thread is for... and that's before going into assuming our recruitment team wouldn't have had more in-depth interviews with the guy.

I know. Like many other fans I find the thought of being dumped by good young players stressful. Gotta work on my confidence levels. Can't wait till I hit the 'go, why on earth would they leave the lions?' level.

 

[Skoob]

Once people say we shouldn’t draft a player because they are sending red flags, what is the logic behind saying we should therefore take player X? How can they be assessed as any more likely to stay?

There's got to be a sliding scale of most to least risk. You can't go to the extreme of saying that because one or 2 are risky, then it doesn't matter who we draft. That's going from one extreme to the other.

 

[Skoob]

To not pick people as they are flight risks doesn't sit with me at all. Take the gamble pick him up and see what happens. Now is the time to do it as we have a heap of young talent. If ever one was to stay it would be now as there is clear path moving forward with leaders in charge.

Between 2001 & 2013, we lost 12 out of 15 first round picks. We've lost a couple more since then. History tells us that we need to consider the risk more than Melbourne based clubs, generally. While not picking players doesn't sit well with you, ignoring the reality doesn't sit well with me. If we continue to blindly trust the best pick we get each year to stay, then the pattern will repeat and we are wasting our time. We just need to be cleverer.
As I said in my reply to Elixuh, that doesn't mean we assume everyone will leave, but about mitigating the risk by watching for warning signs and paying more attention to psych profiles and player maturity, history etc.

 

[carnthemlions]

I agree with you lionshine, I have more of a concern with his often spoken about lack of endurance, if our recruiters see it as genetic and not fixable I can't see us selecting him.

Chris Fagan- We need mids who can get it on the inside and spread, your hybrid type.

Interesting looking at the results Bishop posted in his thread, Rayner's agility and 20m sprint numbers (although this was just pre-season testing) don't stand out either.

Sorry for the delay mate! All these results are from preseason bar Brayshaw's - which are his combine results for 20m + agility.

20m:
Dow - 2.916s
LDU - 2.980s
Rayner - 2.982s
Brayshaw - 3.00s
D.Fogarty - 3.04s
Cerra - 3.051s
Constable - 3.052s
Clark - DNT

Agility:
Dow - 8.046s
LDU - 8.132s
Fogarty - 8.46s
Brayshaw - 8.30s
Rayner - 8.579s
Constable - 8.601s
Cerra - DNT
Clark - DNT

Beep:
Brayshaw - 15.6 beep (preseason)
Dow - 13.13 beep
LDU - 13.8 beep
Cerra - 13.7 beep
Fogarty - 12.10 beep
Constable - 12.9 beep
Rayner - 11.10 beep
Clark - DNT

 

[a mayes ing]

Geese, l keep going back and forth between Rayner, Dow and LDU.

Rayner
Positives: Confident (can't take any more introverted players), star potential
Weaknesses: Endurance question marks, more forward than mid

LDU
Positives: Proper midfielder, big and strong and exactly what out club needs, might be keen to come and stay with surf and house over here.
Negatives: Laid back attitude (questions marks over his ability to get the most out of himself imo), ceiling not as big as LDU or Dow

Dow
Positives: Inside-Out midfielder which is what Fagan is looking for, burst of speed when getting a clearance, Danger-like
Negatives: Skinny, so will take a few seasons to get strength up.

Interview would have been a huge deciding factor in which one to grab

 

[SDG72]

To not pick people as they are flight risks doesn't sit with me at all. Take the gamble pick him up and see what happens. Now is the time to do it as we have a heap of young talent. If ever one was to stay it would be now as there is clear path moving forward with leaders in charge.