Opinion Pick 1... is Cam Rayner

[Elixuh]

There's got to be a sliding scale of most to least risk. You can't go to the extreme of saying that because one or 2 are risky, then it doesn't matter who we draft. That's going from one extreme to the other.

I was making an observation and did not say we should draft anyone.

While the sliding scale might look and sound nice in theory (and in some cases will work) how will you account for variables which are outside of your control and which you are unaware of (eg most draftees are not going to say get stuffed). They may be silent on the point and not share their true feelings. In these cases the model is broken and doesn’t really demonstrate anything reliably.

I just find it interesting that people see a draftee say Blah blah blah which raises red flags and then immediately say we should therefore draft player Y without accounting for player Ys likelihood of hanging round.

Sent from my i-Phone.

 

[pulpdriver]

Geese, l keep going back and forth between Rayner, Dow and LDU.

Rayner
Positives: Confident (can't take any more introverted players), star potential
Weaknesses: Endurance question marks, more forward than mid

LDU
Positives: Proper midfielder, big and strong and exactly what out club needs, might be keen to come and stay with surf and house over here.
Negatives: Laid back attitude (questions marks over his ability to get the most out of himself imo), ceiling not as big as Rayner or Dow

Dow
Positives: Inside-Out midfielder which is what Fagan is looking for, burst of speed when getting a clearance, Danger-like
Negatives: Skinny, so will take a few seasons to get strength up.

Interview would have been a huge deciding factor in which one to grab

How so? I'd say he's the most ready to go of the big 3, particularly in regards to playing midfield, but I don't think that necessarily correlates to having limited scope for growth.

 

[a mayes ing]

How so? I'd say he's the most ready to go of the big 3, particularly in regards to playing midfield, but I don't think that necessarily correlates to having limited scope for growth.

Dow and LDU are producing close to the same level iirc. Dow is much faster but alot skinnier than LDU, can you imagine what Dow would be like when he puts on a few Kgs. Plus l just think those inside bulls are easier to find later in the draft whereas those clearance players with bursts of speed are rare and needed to be snapped up

 

[luthor]

Not a fan of what Cameron Rayner has to say near the end of this video.

"Ideally you'd like to stay in Melbourne but if I'm going to go interstate, ..,yer just play footy..so wouldn't change that at all".

But what is unknown is what question he is replying to.

That video is obviously edited to make it sound like Rayner is giving a monologue about himself, whereas the "interviewer" would no doubt be putting a series of questions to him, none of which you as the listener get the benefit of hearing.

It's a bit similar to when Pike cracked the sads when he "heard" that Fagan said Cameron would be welcome at the Lions.

But all Fagan did was respond honestly to a direct question that was put to him.

It's about the context.

There's a huge gulf between responding to questions and issuing unsolicited statements

 

[pulpdriver]

Dow and LDU are producing close to the same level iirc. Dow is much faster but alot skinnier than LDU, can you imagine what Dow would be like when he puts on a few Kgs. Plus l just think those inside bulls are easier to find later in the draft whereas those clearance players with bursts of speed are rare and needed to be snapped up

I don't think Dow is that much faster than LDU, LDU's speed gets underrated imo. From what I've seen I do think LDU has a lot better inherent decision making and is a much quicker thinker than Dow though. Those sorts of instincts are hard to teach. I reckon all 3 could easily be the best of the draft and have just as much growth as each other.

 

[lioninthesand]

Geese, l keep going back and forth between Rayner, Dow and LDU.

Rayner
Positives: Confident (can't take any more introverted players), star potential
Weaknesses: Endurance question marks, more forward than mid

LDU
Positives: Proper midfielder, big and strong and exactly what out club needs, might be keen to come and stay with surf and house over here.
Negatives: Laid back attitude (questions marks over his ability to get the most out of himself imo), ceiling not as big as LDU or Dow

Dow
Positives: Inside-Out midfielder which is what Fagan is looking for, burst of speed when getting a clearance, Danger-like
Negatives: Skinny, so will take a few seasons to get strength up.

Interview would have been a huge deciding factor in which one to grab

Just because of Schache we can't put a blanket ban in introverted players.

It is the entitled, cocky types (for the sake of a stereo type) that are more likely to leave.

 

[SizeMatters]

Dow and LDU are producing close to the same level iirc. Dow is much faster but alot skinnier than LDU, can you imagine what Dow would be like when he puts on a few Kgs. Plus l just think those inside bulls are easier to find later in the draft whereas those clearance players with bursts of speed are rare and needed to be snapped up

It's a winning situation to be in. A Pendlebury, Murphy or Martin?

 

[a mayes ing]

Just because of Schache we can't put a blanket ban in introverted players.

It is the entitled, cocky types (for the sake of a stereo type) that are more likely to leave.

I just feel like the introverted types will find it difficult to leave their home and live in Brisbane (partly why l am worried about Clug). Whereas the extroverted types they are more willing, outgoing and adventurous, also more likely to make firends maybe (Matho). Plus, it wasn't just because of homesickness that l am not a fan of introverted types, l feel that we are starting to get a team of hard at it players that will get up in the opposition's faces, introverted types won't do it or find it much more difficult to.

 

[luthor]

Just because of Schache we can't put a blanket ban in introverted players.

It is the entitled, cocky types (for the sake of a stereo type) that are more likely to leave.

I wouldn't have though Aish, Longer or even Polec would likely be derscribed as entitled AND cocky.

Prince Aish of Souf-orstralya seems to fit the the entitled mould but cocky?.....he never did enough to be cocky about anything.

 

[dlanod]

Interesting looking at the results Bishop posted in his thread, Rayner's agility and 20m sprint numbers (although this was just pre-season testing) don't stand out either.

That... is not impressive. I can see why he's pegged as a forward more than a mid.

Having seen none of them I'm hitching my wagon to LDU. Who cares if he sounds like a premix?

 

[dlanod]

I just feel like the introverted types will find it difficult to leave their home and live in Brisbane (partly why l am worried about Clug). Whereas the extroverted types they are more willing, outgoing and adventurous, also more likely to make firends maybe (Matho). Plus, it wasn't just because of homesickness that l am not a fan of introverted types, l feel that we are starting to get a team of hard at it players that will get up in the opposition's faces, introverted types won't do it or find it much more difficult to.

FWIW Brisbane, as an introverted AFL player, would be awesome compared to the hell of having random nuffies coming up to you every day you tried to you shopping or anything. Introverted is not the same as requiring nearness of friends and/or family.

 

[Malifice]

I'm hearing LDU is chronically injured, a shit bloke, and a massive flight risk.*

If you get the chance, please let Freo know as well.

In all seriousness though, who do you blokes reckon you're taking?







* May not be true

 

[pulpdriver]

I'm hearing LDU is chronically injured, a shit bloke, and a massive flight risk.*

If you get the chance, please let Freo know as well.

In all seriousness though, who do you blokes reckon you're taking?







* May not be true

I think LDU is the perfect fit for us but I think we'll need to get closer to the draft before our intentions start becoming clearer.

 

[Malifice]

I think LDU is the perfect fit for us but I think we'll need to get closer to the draft before our intentions start becoming clearer.

Reckon I'd take LDU over Raynor personally at this stage. There is something about him. My only concern is he's a big boy playing against kids, and has a little bit of Rhys Palmer/ Daniel Rich/ Powell Pepper about him (developed kids smashing less developed ones always look great in the U18's).

He could turn out one of those 'ready to play round one, dominate first year, and then be overtaken' types. Or he could improve from where he's at and be the next big thing. I reckon at his worst, he'll be a good player, and at his best, the best from the draft by a long way, so I'd take the risk.

Arguments can be made for Dow and Cerra as well, but I cant see you blokes taking either of them at 1 (although I hear you blokes do have a preferrence for the Vic Country boys over Metro).

Im hoping one of Raynor or LDU (preferably) falls to us at 3.

 

[M Malice]

Reckon I'd take LDU over Raynor personally at this stage. There is something about him. My only concern is he's a big boy playing against kids, and has a little bit of Rhys Palmer/ Daniel Rich/ Powell Pepper about him (developed kids smashing less developed ones always look great in the U18's).

He could turn out one of those 'ready to play round one, dominate first year, and then be overtaken' types. Or he could improve from where he's at and be the next big thing. I reckon at his worst, he'll be a good player, and at his best, the best from the draft by a long way, so I'd take the risk.

Arguments can be made for Dow and Cerra as well, but I cant see you blokes taking either of them at 1 (although I hear you blokes do have a preferrence for the Vic Country boys over Metro).

Im hoping one of Raynor or LDU (preferably) falls to us at 3.

Great point re the bigger bodied boys dominating in the juniors, might be a good reason for us to take Paddy Dow, plenty of upside once he puts on a bit of beef.

That skinny junior selected at pick 20 Nathan Fyfe did OK once he filled out.

 

[MSB ROYS]

It's a bit similar to when Pike cracked the sads when he "heard" that Fagan said Cameron would be welcome at the Lions.

But all Fagan did was respond honestly to a direct question that was put to him.

It's about the context.

I was wondering Martin Pike was worried about Cameron coming to Brisbane...

 

[Scubaveg]

Probably put Ainsworth as an example of a top 3 draft pick that genuinely wanted to come to play for the Lions.
Not many like him I know , but there has to be some sort of feel about a player whether he is about himself or a big picture, and whether that picture could be Brisbane.
Just a little underwhelmed about getting pick 1 due to our problems I guess.
So take that on board and I go as far as saying any player in the top 5 category I'd take if he suited our needs and expressed a genuine desire to play for us.
we all know the southern clubs are going to chase our top 1 pick no matter who he is.
The super star thing doesn't impress me , I think there is the Selwood types out there are more down to earth, that's who imo we want .

Josh Schache says hi.


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[luthor]

I was wondering Martin Pike was worried about Cameron coming to Brisbane...

Oops.....Pyke

Marty Pike would have been a lot scarier cracking the sads.....just ask M.Bowers

 

[Kernel Kurtz]

Josh Schache says hi.


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

Ha ha yeh he would, nice boy that shashe.

 

[Skoob]

I was making an observation and did not say we should draft anyone.

While the sliding scale might look and sound nice in theory (and in some cases will work) how will you account for variables which are outside of your control and which you are unaware of (eg most draftees are not going to say get stuffed). They may be silent on the point and not share their true feelings. In these cases the model is broken and doesn’t really demonstrate anything reliably.

I just find it interesting that people see a draftee say Blah blah blah which raises red flags and then immediately say we should therefore draft player Y without accounting for player Ys likelihood of hanging round.

Sent from my i-Phone.

Opinions can only be formed on the 'evidence' before someone though. No-one knows all of the variables. No-one. But if one candidate has "red flags" then that of course impacts opinions of suitability, while another player shows no concerns. That doesn't mean there aren't concerns lurking. If I offer you the choice of 2 cars by showing you a photo, and one of them has rust hanging out the doors, that is a red flag. The interior of the other could be absolutely ****ed, but you're making a choice on the photo you're shown.
The other side of that coin is that what one sees as a "red flag", might not be huge concern for others. People see flag colours differently. My point is that it can be valid to form an opinion of preference based on flags. Good recruiters don't just have an eye for talent or understanding of statistics. Like many professions, the best have a knack for 'gut feel' as well, and those feelings come from a high ability to read the flags, red or green.
Those flags are also an inexact 'science', so you're right in saying the absence of red flags doesn't promise anything from the alternatives, but it is still an absence of a perceived negative.

 

[Lazza16]

Pike knows Charlie is a top gun ready to fire.....

 

[Malifice]

That skinny junior selected at pick 20 Nathan Fyfe did OK once he filled out.

Thats your flipside argument as well. Blokes like Constable and Coffield who are bigger bodied or taller blokes that can roll into the midfield like Bont or Fyfe or Cripps. Players who arent racking up massive numbers in the u18'se (looking good but lacking wow factor) that dominate at the higher level.

 

[TheZork]

Post Trade Week- (Will do a Full Phantom Draft later in the week)

This is based off gut feel/inside info/guess work -- it's not an exact science. Happy to justify selection etc.

Have wipped up 'Others" in about 5 minutes due to work commitments. If there's a spelling/grammar error, apologies!

Pick 1: Brisbane Lions: Luke Davies-Uniacke
Others: Paddy Dow seems like the only other contender for the No.1 pick, with everything I hear suggesting Rayner isn't the Lions no.1 (he isn't the consensus No.1 around the place either)

Pick 2: Fremantle: Adam Cerra
Others: Freo have liked Cerra for a long time and I thought Pick 5 they'd consider him, but now may grab him at 2. Andrew Brayshaw another they've watched and liked throughout the year. Too early to consider Brander/Naughton. Already have a lot of Rayner 'types' - Dow could be considered too.

Pick 3: Carlton: Paddy Dow
Others: Picking a 'full-time' midfielder might see them grab Dow or LDU/Cerra if available. Darcy Fogarty another name that doesn't go away - but they might hope that he gets past North at 4 & to their next Pick at 10. Andrew Brayshaw would also be a candidate.

Pick 4: North Melbourne: Cam Rayner
Others: Have had multiple people mention to me over the last 96 hours that North are fans of Fogarty - but he's not someone I'd take this early. X-Factor Rayner should appeal to build their future around, Stephenson's strong 2nd 1/2 to the year might see him considered too.

Pick 5: Fremantle: Andrew Brayshaw
Others: Some people close to Brander continue to suggest that Freo have been right into them - some in the know say Naughton is another they might take, others say he isn't going to be considered. Brayshaw seems the best fit here.

Pick 6: Collingwood: Nicholas Coffield
Others: They might consider Naughton as a tall defender - but Coffield makes sense here as the best available. Aiden Bonar's strong 2nd half to the year will make him appeal heavily. They were the first club to speak to Nathan Murphy earlier in the year, but it's too early for him.

Pick 7: St Kilda: Jaidyn Stephenson
Others: Best available here - Saints will grab a slider if a tall goes above them.

Pick 8: St Kilda: Aiden Bonar
Others: Best available here - Saints will grab a slider if a tall goes above them but couldn't see Bonar being overlooked. Might look at Dandenong Stingrays teammate Hunter Clark. Saints were keen to add another KPD - but they may wait til next year after grabbing Logan Austin in trade week.

Pick 9: Western Bulldogs: Aaron Naughton
Others: Hands down the hardest pick inside the top 10 - who do they take? They've liked Nathan Murphy, but could hope he gets later. Fogarty would have to be a chance too. Small forward like Jack Higgins another.

Pick 10: Carlton: Darcy Fogarty
Others: Charlie Constable is one that SOS would take, while some sources say this is the furthest Bonar will get with the Blues unlikely to let him get past.

Pick 11: GWS: Jack Higgins
Others: Everyone linking them with Higgins makes me worried that this pick might not be as easy as it seems, especially when they could've grabbed Ainsworth last year and took Taranto. Watch this space with GWS.

Pick 12: Adelaide: Hunter Clark
Others: Best available, would grab D.Fogarty surely if he gets through.

Pick 13: WCE: Oscar Allen
Others: They need mids - but there isn't a suitable option here. Allen next best player on the board and a WA prospect. Clark would fit the bill if he slides. Constable's running in WA might be an issue - but he could be a project midfielder if they can get him up to speed.

Pick 14: Sydney: Nathan Murphy
Others: Seems the best fit here for the Swans - can play at either end. Constable another candidate.

Pick 15: Brisbane: Charlie Constable
Others: Best available here - but the fear could be that he is gone before this pick & it'd be very hard to see who the Lions grab at Pick 15. They also have Pick 18 - might look to take an outside mid or add some speed such as Petruccelle or Lochie O'Brien. Unlikely to take a tall with Ballenden's bid coming in the 20s.

Pick 16: Western Bulldogs: Ed Richards
Others: Murphy will be there man if the Swans don't take him. Could they take Gryan Miers this early? Richards' speed will appeal, as could Jack Petruccelle. Good chance to bid on Naish.

Pick 17: Richmond: Jarrod Brander
Others: Best fit to grab a tall. If Oscar Allen gets here that'd make sense - think Sam Hayes will be grabbed at their next pick, but he has a lot of work to be done on his running. Naish bid could come at Pick 16 - otherwise they'll be able to use Pick 20 as well. Lot of talk Richmond like Noah Balta too.

Pretty interesting to hear about LDU/Dow and Rayner not being in consideration. I've changed my opinion a million times but after watching the interview where Rayner see's himself as more of a forward (we need a midfielder), plus the potential go home factor, plus his poor testing results compared to Dow and LDU (not just endurance but speed and agility), I reckon we'd be mad not to go LDU/Dow. Rayner might end up being the best player in the draft but its a risk we're not in the position to make.

 

[luthor]

Much as I like the idea of drafting Rayner, for now my gut feelling is that we will take either LDU or Dow.

Now it becomes a question of do you draft for NOW or for the longer term?

If the former ,take LDU if the latter take Paddy.

Based (again) on nothing other than video highlights and "expert" commentary, PD looks to me like he might have a higher ceiling than LDU.

 

[briztoon]