2017 Draft thread

[bungalow_bill]

Still don't see any real reasons NOT to take Rayner.

The main "fear" about him seems to be by association.....ie he's Vic Metro

Brayshaw is also Vic M - ironically it's the two Vic C boys who have question marks next to them

 

[scoman]

Slowly starting to warm to the Raynor idea. Hopefully the strong personality is a positive and he fits in well, embraces South East Queensland and helps lead us up the ladder. If the club is confident he will thrive up here then he becomes the clear number one, despite the questionable midfield capabilities. Long live Earl Ragnor.......... I mean Raynor.

Not keen on Brayshaw as it seems to be only recently, and interestingly once the football season finished that he has suddenly joined the top five conversation, let alone pick one.

 

[a mayes ing]

Still don't see any real reasons NOT to take Rayner.

The main "fear" about him seems to be by association.....ie he's Vic Metro

Well along with the ? marks about flight risk, it was also the fact that he has endurance ? marks and if he is going to be able to get enough endurance to play in the midfield
We need mids not half forwards

 

[Lazza16]

Thats interesting indeed S.M. You may also like to factor in this inside info.I got today.Interviews are proceeding as we speak. Dow,surprisingly to me for some reason,is considered the most likely go home risk,and that is now very much against him.Rayner, has limitations at present,but presented verywell,and it is thought he is very suited to the off field and socialisation factors.He is liked by his team mates. On the other hand LDU,is seen as quiet,and maybe lacking drive.Concerns also after Scache, and personality type.The big mover ,is Brayshaw,who ticks all boxes and not many do in this draft,for our needs.He understands the job,is a dedicated professional, from a family who knows what its like,and is ready to play as contracted,and make a life for himself.even in Brisbane apparently! Cerra, Bailey and Clarke remain of interest,the latter two not first picks of course...I guess.Ballenden should be after pick three,given the only clubs who might need him have such early picks...they wont be using them on him.

No mention of Bonar?

 

[BuntonRules]

Slowly starting to warm to the Raynor idea.S Hopefully the strong personality is a positive and he fits in well, embraces South East Queensland and helps lead us up the ladder. If the club is confident he will thrive up here then he becomes the clear number one, despite the questionable midfield capabilities. Long live Earl Ragnor.......... I mean Raynor.

Not keen on Brayshaw as it seems to be only recently, and interestingly once the football season finished that he has suddenly joined the top five conversation, let alone pick one.

Yeah. If our no. 1 is going to go home, it might as well be the best 1. Pick 21 is better than pick 27.

 

[M Malice]

Well along with the ? marks about flight risk, it was also the fact that he has endurance ? marks and if he is going to be able to get enough endurance to play in the midfield
We need mids not half forwards

Yep, I'll leave the go home worries to our staff, I'm far more concerned with his ability to overcome his endurance problems.

 

[luthor]

If we are really following the draft for talent ideology we must take Rayner.

He's the consensus best talent avaiable.

Ortherwise Fagnob need to change the catchcry to draft by geography or draft by needs

 

[jackess]

If we are really following the draft for talent ideology we must take Rayner.

He's the consensus best talent avaiable.

Ortherwise Fagnob need to change the catchcry to draft by geography or draft by needs

It would be naive to think that we don’t factor in the likelihood of a prospect wanting to return home.

 

[luthor]

It would be naive to think that we don’t factor in the likelihood of a prospect wanting to return home.

Fair enough.

But I'm still puzzled about why there is a perception that Rayner is a bigger flight risk than say Dow, LDU or Brayshaw, especially when Rayner is said to have presented very well at interviews.

 

[jackess]

Fair enough.

But I'm still puzzled about why there is a perception that Rayner is a bigger flight risk than say Dow, LDU or Brayshaw, especially when Rayner is said to have presented very well at interviews.

I think it’s just rumours with a perception that he has a massive ego that will require him to be part of a massive Vic club

 

[Comeback Lions]

If we are really following the draft for talent ideology we must take Rayner.

He's the consensus best talent avaiable.

Ortherwise Fagnob need to change the catchcry to draft by geography or draft by needs

I'm really not convinced that there's any consensus... and even if there is it's just among journalists. We really don't know what the professional list people think. And what other people think should not affect our decision making at all...

 

[Hollow Knight]

Rayner pls thx.

 

[luthor]

I think it’s just rumours with a perception that he has a massive ego that will require him to be part of a massive Vic club

I just don't follow this argument

All these guys have to have a big ego to even think they can make it in the AFL.

Voss, Fyfe, Aker, Pav, Kerr, J Brown, Tredrae, J. Kennedy (SYD), J. Kennedy (WCE) to name a few off the top of my head didn't need to be part of a massive Vic club to massage their egos.

Team and /or personal success did that well enough for them

 

[jjami15]

Thats interesting indeed S.M. You may also like to factor in this inside info.I got today.Interviews are proceeding as we speak. Dow,surprisingly to me for some reason,is considered the most likely go home risk,and that is now very much against him.Rayner, has limitations at present,but presented verywell,and it is thought he is very suited to the off field and socialisation factors.He is liked by his team mates. On the other hand LDU,is seen as quiet,and maybe lacking drive.Concerns also after Scache, and personality type.The big mover ,is Brayshaw,who ticks all boxes and not many do in this draft,for our needs.He understands the job,is a dedicated professional, from a family who knows what its like,and is ready to play as contracted,and make a life for himself.even in Brisbane apparently! Cerra, Bailey and Clarke remain of interest,the latter two not first picks of course...I guess.Ballenden should be after pick three,given the only clubs who might need him have such early picks...they wont be using them on him.

That’s interesting about Dow and there was some noise just after he had done his shoulder that he had said that he didn’t want to leave Vic but I think Brett Andersen might have been asked this on Twitter. I read an article about the Brayshaw’s eldest brother being in the army and the impactit it has done the younger boys (was mainly centered around Angus). I was always of the belief that it would come down to the interviews. Happy to hear about Clarke and Bailey. Getting some grunt and toughness into our club would be great.

 

[carnthemlions]

That’s interesting about Dow and there was some noise just after he had done his shoulder that he had said that he didn’t want to leave Vic but I think Brett Andersen might have been asked this on Twitter. I read an article about the Brayshaw’s eldest brother being in the army and the impactit it has done the younger boys (was mainly centered around Angus). I was always of the belief that it would come down to the interviews. Happy to hear about Clarke and Bailey. Getting some grunt and toughness into our club would be great.

Carlton have visited Dow in Swan Hill and Paddy's preferred club is also Carlton.

Source plays VAFA footy with his older brother.

I saw this on the Carlton board.

 

[briztoon]

I saw this on the Carlton board.

Thought Paddy said this morning on SEN he was a North fan.

If Dow goes to Carlton, they're going to have a very good young midfield.

 

[13Beast]

That doesn't seem to mean that they get drafted earlier on the night than in the phantoms. Here I've compared the academy/FS players in HPN's Consensus Phantom Drafts from 2015 and 2016 to their actual position on draft night:
View attachment 431359

(I didn't include the 2014 draft as the different bidding system made academy picks a lot more predictable).

Even if you were to eliminate Sproule as an outlier (consensus at 42.9, eventually prelisted as a cat B rookie, counted at the bottom of the ND+PSD+RD), academy/fs bids come an average two picks after their phantom consensus position.

Love me a good spreadsheet

 

[a mayes ing]

Thought Paddy said this morning on SEN he was a North fan.

If Dow goes to Carlton, they're going to have a very good young midfield.

Yep. We are always going to be compared with them because we are starting together. But l think long term they will have the better team unfortunately. Their key defensive posts are done. Curnow looks awesome. Their midfield will be pretty darn good with a few more additions but more from other teams. And l still think we are going to be losing players every now and then

 

[briztoon]

So it's Andrew Brayshaw with pick 1 in the National Draft, and Hamish Brayshaw with pick 1 in the Rookie Draft.

 

[Bjorn Again]

So it's Andrew Brayshaw with pick 1 in the National Draft, and Hamish Brayshaw with pick 1 in the Rookie Draft.

Hamish had a great season in 2017 and I would not expect him to last until rookie draft. His game in round 18 was probably the best by any player this year in TAC, including all the potential #1's. 5 goals, 30 disposals.

 

[Johnny Bananas]

The big mover ,is Brayshaw,who ticks all boxes and not many do in this draft,for our needs.He understands the job,is a dedicated professional, from a family who knows what its like,and is ready to play as contracted,and make a life for himself.even in Brisbane apparently!

All this noise about Brayshaw sounds ominous. I want Rayner here, but if the club feel they must go with a true midfielder at #1 it sounds like it'll be Brayshaw. No big weaknesses and has leadership skills.

 

[jjami15]

Hamish had a great season in 2017 and I would not expect him to last until rookie draft. His game in round 18 was probably the best by any player this year in TAC, including all the potential #1's. 5 goals, 30 disposals.

If Ballenden gets bid on at 19 we have enough points that we can use pick 53 on Hamish. Could he be gone by then? Maybe but in all seriousness I would have no problems with the club taking this action. We have our own different issues i here and we have to think differently. That means getting Thomas Berry next year.

Yep. We are always going to be compared with them because we are starting together. But l think long term they will have the better team unfortunately. Their key defensive posts are done. Curnow looks awesome. Their midfield will be pretty darn good with a few more additions but more from other teams. And l still think we are going to be losing players every now and then

I agree with this. Whoever appointed SOS made a great choice with his connection with GWS and eventhough some have been a miss he certainly has brought back some that will be very good players.

Rayner pls thx.

Have no issues with this and actually think that eventhough he likes to enjoy himself sometimes you just have to take the punt. He’s a kid and in the right environment he would learn what it takes and I reckon we’ll get there. Have heard via some sources that our young boys like to enjoy themselves (nothing sinister, just being young) and as they mature this could actually bring them closer together. Didn’t hurt Geelong in 00’s.

 

[irish]

With all this chatter about kids dictating almost which state they get drafted too the AFL has let a monster grow. They need to step in perhaps make it a 4 year no refund contract for first rounders , this mummy boy mentality has to be cut short , not only for us but all clubs

The leaking of hear say that particular kids want to play for clubs that have lower picks to add doubt about the go home factor needs to be squashed right now.

 

[WhiteLionFeva]

I just don't follow this argument

All these guys have to have a big ego to even think they can make it in the AFL.

Voss, Fyfe, Aker, Pav, Kerr, J Brown, Tredrae, J. Kennedy (SYD), J. Kennedy (WCE) to name a few off the top of my head didn't need to be part of a massive Vic club to massage their egos.

Team and /or personal success did that well enough for them

I think there is a difference between ego and confidence in your ability. I think most of the 18 year olds that make it have the latter rather than the former. The ego maybe comes later, as the names you mentioned would suggest. I agree with you that if a player has an ego it doesn't require a big club, just an audience and a stage.

 

[The Bear]

That doesn't seem to mean that they get drafted earlier on the night than in the phantoms. Here I've compared the academy/FS players in HPN's Consensus Phantom Drafts from 2015 and 2016 to their actual position on draft night:
View attachment 431359

I'll take some more of that pick 14 goodness, thanks!

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2015-10-30/25-days-to-the-draft-meet-the-tall-and-agile-eric-hipwood