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Pressure Gauge 2018
- Thread starter BuffDog
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Gone Critical
Moderator
- Moderator
- #52
I voted GWS
The way they developed their list was asute and they have put together talent everyone envies. That sort of list if it goes unrewarded will be a millstone. Each year they dont win pressure will mount
The way they developed their list was asute and they have put together talent everyone envies. That sort of list if it goes unrewarded will be a millstone. Each year they dont win pressure will mount
Gone Critical
Moderator
- Moderator
- #53
Think this is pretty right. As a Collingwood supporter 2017 and heading into 2018 we do with little expectation. I think there is an expectation we don't have a very talented list and questions marks hang on Bucks. Even the pressure on Bucks will drop I think as i dont see anyone much expecting him to improve. Feels a bit we are bogged for a few seasons yet and hopefully can rebuild something better down the track.
Proper Gander
Owl whisperer and secret agent
- Feb 15, 2015
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Media being media though, pies will have to work through a fair bit of external pressure particularly if you have some early losses. I fully expect the usual weekly where are they at thinkpieces from the Sun and the Age. Mind you it’s something the coach and players are fairly accustomed to at this point so they will probably survive.
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Gone Critical
Moderator
- Moderator
- #55
Think even the media has toned down on the Pies last season or so. I think our start will be difficult with Richmond, Adelaide, GWS and Essendon in the first six weeks likely losses, Hawthorn we are a chance against but they have a great record against us and Carlton the only match you would be confident in. If we are 1:5 or 2:4 theseason is shot very early. Bucks could easily go early in that setting and the club would set themselves to a rebuild with a drop in pressure.
Pressure Gauge 2018:
---Top Tier - (Expected to seriously challenge for the flag/top 4)
1. GWS - We all know they're talented but the rumblings will just get louder each year they don't taste success. Plus their list was always going to get targeted for players because they had amassed so much talent but in this era with a salary cap its not possible to hold it together indefinitely. Anything less than a premiership is probably a failure.
2. Sydney - Externally expectations for this team are really high. However I put them a bit below GWS because they've had recent success and they look to have a lot of talented youth that aren't in their prime yet. So even if they don't get the job done next year, they'll still fancy themselves in the next few years. They do have some older players that are important but I think they have a few more good years left in most of them.
3. Port - They invested heavily into making them a contender in the next year or two. Now's the time for them.
4. Adelaide - Could easily argue they were the best team for most of the year. Didn't get the job done. They've now added Gibbs as the high profile and expensive recruit to round out the midfield which now looks like a strength more than a weakness.
5. Richmond - Won their premiership last year? Do they still have the hunger?
6. Geelong - Their top end is amazing - even though perhaps we aren't sure how much to expect from Ablett next year. They only have so many years with their guns though. The youth coming through is more role players than stars. Probably need to strike sooner rather than later.
---Next Tier expected to make finals
7. Melbourne - They should have made finals last year but it didn't happen for them. Internally, externally a finals appearance is a non-negotiable. I think top 4 is a possibility.
8. Essendon - I would have had Essendon lower but the off-season recruiting has raised expectations internally and externally. Winning a final is what we should be aiming for. That said - I don't think there would be a massive backlash if we failed to do so which is why I put us under Melbourne.
9. St Kilda - I think externally most of us have given up on the St.Kilda list but internally they would be expecting finals. Tough to rate.
10. Western Bulldogs - Last year we all thought we were seeing the rise of two great young teams in Bulldogs and GWS. Now expectations are uncertain on the Bulldogs. Their supporters are still mollified by their previous flag so that's why they aren't higher on the list.
--Expected to improve in general
11. Collingwood - Their direction is uncertain and has been for a while. Buckley's future is still a topic of discussion. Finals a clear aim last year so they would have be again this year.
12. Brisbane - They have been down for a long time and their supporters would like to see them off the bottom. I reckon they'll get their wish.
13. Freo - Fit Fyfe should help a bit. Generally expected to be better and a smokey for the finals.
14. Hawthorn - Won't be happy with their last year. But do they have enough talent on the list to do something about it?
15. West Coast - To be honest I think their list needs a bit of work and they will probably decline a bit. They should come close to the 8 though.
--Well conditioned to accept finishing bottom if it happens
16. Carlton - Every year they finish bottom is a good year because draft picks and every year they do better they are on their way to a flag. Every year is a good year to be a Carlton supporter.
17. Gold Coast - expected to be near the bottom.
18. North Melbourne - expected to be near the bottom.
---Top Tier - (Expected to seriously challenge for the flag/top 4)
1. GWS - We all know they're talented but the rumblings will just get louder each year they don't taste success. Plus their list was always going to get targeted for players because they had amassed so much talent but in this era with a salary cap its not possible to hold it together indefinitely. Anything less than a premiership is probably a failure.
2. Sydney - Externally expectations for this team are really high. However I put them a bit below GWS because they've had recent success and they look to have a lot of talented youth that aren't in their prime yet. So even if they don't get the job done next year, they'll still fancy themselves in the next few years. They do have some older players that are important but I think they have a few more good years left in most of them.
3. Port - They invested heavily into making them a contender in the next year or two. Now's the time for them.
4. Adelaide - Could easily argue they were the best team for most of the year. Didn't get the job done. They've now added Gibbs as the high profile and expensive recruit to round out the midfield which now looks like a strength more than a weakness.
5. Richmond - Won their premiership last year? Do they still have the hunger?
6. Geelong - Their top end is amazing - even though perhaps we aren't sure how much to expect from Ablett next year. They only have so many years with their guns though. The youth coming through is more role players than stars. Probably need to strike sooner rather than later.
---Next Tier expected to make finals
7. Melbourne - They should have made finals last year but it didn't happen for them. Internally, externally a finals appearance is a non-negotiable. I think top 4 is a possibility.
8. Essendon - I would have had Essendon lower but the off-season recruiting has raised expectations internally and externally. Winning a final is what we should be aiming for. That said - I don't think there would be a massive backlash if we failed to do so which is why I put us under Melbourne.
9. St Kilda - I think externally most of us have given up on the St.Kilda list but internally they would be expecting finals. Tough to rate.
10. Western Bulldogs - Last year we all thought we were seeing the rise of two great young teams in Bulldogs and GWS. Now expectations are uncertain on the Bulldogs. Their supporters are still mollified by their previous flag so that's why they aren't higher on the list.
--Expected to improve in general
11. Collingwood - Their direction is uncertain and has been for a while. Buckley's future is still a topic of discussion. Finals a clear aim last year so they would have be again this year.
12. Brisbane - They have been down for a long time and their supporters would like to see them off the bottom. I reckon they'll get their wish.
13. Freo - Fit Fyfe should help a bit. Generally expected to be better and a smokey for the finals.
14. Hawthorn - Won't be happy with their last year. But do they have enough talent on the list to do something about it?
15. West Coast - To be honest I think their list needs a bit of work and they will probably decline a bit. They should come close to the 8 though.
--Well conditioned to accept finishing bottom if it happens
16. Carlton - Every year they finish bottom is a good year because draft picks and every year they do better they are on their way to a flag. Every year is a good year to be a Carlton supporter.
17. Gold Coast - expected to be near the bottom.
18. North Melbourne - expected to be near the bottom.
- May 20, 2014
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In such a weak era, subsequently proven with very ordinary teams winning the last two flags, I think 100% they were justified in their top up approach and I think they have done it pretty well overall.
Yeah Stanley for pick 21 isn't great for example, but effectively that was a Stanley and Christensen straight swap and both have been injury inflicted disappointments at their new clubs. Cats supporters spewed on draft night when the Saints took the highly rated Goddard with the pick, who hasn't amounted to anything either, then now in hindsight instead pick good player x who was taken after pick 21 as the player they missed out on instead.
It just doesn't work that way in practice though. You can't rebuild with middle of the road first rounders like the ones Geelong have traded, you find good players in the teens but you need that very top end talent from the top 10 to win flags. Take Martin and Cotchin out of the Tigers, Bont and Macrae and Boyd (when it counted) out of the Dogs, Hodge Buddy and Rough out of the Hawks, Selwood Bartel Corey Ottens Hawkins (would have been pick #1 if not f/s) out of the cats etc etc.
Geelong haven't had access to those sort of players in the draft since 2006. Sure they could have bottomed out instead of trading but IMO worth the shot at the stumps when Selwood/Hawkins/Taylor are still around and the competition quality has been diluted to cat piss levels. In an 18 team competition is it still possible to build from scratch through the draft? Carlton are trying the Geelong method of 99/01 trading out players for picks and trying to bring a big group through together. It worked 20 years ago but is it now obsolete in the FA era? Be very interesting to see how it pans out at the Blues.
The list management strategy has been spot on for mine. The thing that hasn't been is the coaching. Have they wasted the top up plan with Scott as coach? Next year is really the crunch year for him, he can still pull it out of the fire, but if he can't put together a semi functioning forward structure and avoid being 8 goals down at quarter time over and over again then topping up has been a waste of time. If Clarkson was coach the last two years for example, what could have been....
Anyway, rightly or wrongly, I think the only way Scott comes under pressure is if they miss finals outright so yeah I don't think Geelong are the right fit for this thread.
Bigeasy
I'm here for the buffet
I voted StKilda, they could go either way next year but i think their list has massive holes and will finish outside of the 8 again. Richo to be axed mid year.
The list demographics of the Swans are not actually that bad so bottoming out isn't something that is needed but I do agree that the Swans have blown it the last 6 years or so as we have consistently been one of the best teams in the competition the last 6 years but have had nothing to show for it.
- May 20, 2014
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It took a couple of years after the introduction of the new teams, the draft concessions and the dilution of the draft, 18 teams picking each draft rather than 16, for it to flow through. I'd say 2014 it really started to bite. That is when teams like Freo, WC, Bulldogs have had one good fluke run making it to the grand final and then not backing it up again. Richmond to join the club next year.
Totally disagree with this part. I can't even remember the last time Geelong have finished lower than 12th. Similar with Sydney and Adelaide. All three teams have managed to put a list together which range from often being there abouts for a flag (Adelaide) to having one of the most successful eras in the AFL (Geelong).
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- May 20, 2014
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Geelong's flags were built around the 99/01/02 drafts then got a leg up with Selwood and Hawkins two top 10 players effectively in the same draft in 06. Along with Ottens a number #2 draft pick traded in from another club those are the players that won Geelong flags 07-11.
Since 11 Geelong have still had that spine around Selwood, Hawkins and Harry Taylor who was one of those good picks in the teens as an exception but what has cost them more than anything in finals since then is just not having enough elite players. They've been professional as **** and red lined through the home and away season and developed handy players from later picks but when it comes to the crunch in finals they haven't had enough of the top end elite draft talent that still have another gear left to shift up to in September.
Adelaide haven't won a flag and Sydney have been as underwhelming as Geelong in finals since 2012.
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Saying Collingwood have the best midfield in 2017 according to Champion Data didn't help.
I wouldn't count on the pressure to not come if you lose as many as you're predicting. Going to be another big year in the press, as Collingwood sell news papers
- Aug 23, 2011
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Geelong have gone all in with the Ablett recruitment. Harry’s getting old, Selwood and Hawkins are 30 next year. Time’s ticking. They need to deliver after their weak prelim efforts the last 2 years.
Port have gone all in as well, although they have more time on their side than the Cats, so a 2018 Premiership isn’t critical. Both the Crows and Port could go deep this year, so if either one falls apart while the other has a good year, the fans will be out with pitchforks. Sir Kenneth has had 5 years now. Pressure will be on.
I’ll take a different angle and say the Suns and Lions need to pull their fingers out. Both clubs have been rabbles for a long time and need to start winning some games.
There is very little pressure on Richmond from the supporter base. There is very little expectation from the footy community too. If they slide out of the 8 there will be criticism but the fans will still be satisfied after 30 years of pain.
Port have gone all in as well, although they have more time on their side than the Cats, so a 2018 Premiership isn’t critical. Both the Crows and Port could go deep this year, so if either one falls apart while the other has a good year, the fans will be out with pitchforks. Sir Kenneth has had 5 years now. Pressure will be on.
I’ll take a different angle and say the Suns and Lions need to pull their fingers out. Both clubs have been rabbles for a long time and need to start winning some games.
There is very little pressure on Richmond from the supporter base. There is very little expectation from the footy community too. If they slide out of the 8 there will be criticism but the fans will still be satisfied after 30 years of pain.
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The only people that gifted Richmond a flag were the Cats, Giants and Crows players through their piss weak finals efforts.
WaynesWorld19
Post-Human
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- Banned
- #70
Through your unfair home advantage regarding us. GF won’t be moved so I’ll give you Adelaide.
- Aug 23, 2011
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Geelong have played 1 final at Kardinia Park in their entire history.
And they lost.
To Freo.
But nah it’s so unfair that you had to play a home final at a ground where you play all your home finals, including the following week against the Swans. Odd that the ground didn’t hold the Cats back in the semi, although I’m sure you’ve convinced yourself that it was a neutral venue.
From the 99/01 and 02 drafts the lowest pick Geelong had was pick 7. Not exactly a "high end pick". Back then that would have indeed considered well and truely a mid range first rnd selection with a 16 team competition and probably even considered on the crusp of a mid range selection with 18 teams. Even Selwood was a number 7 selection. Geelong in the end haven't had a top 3 selection (which they picked) in the draft playing for them.
Adelaide haven't won a flag since 2000 but have made the finals 11 of the last 17 years. At the very least they gave themselves a chance on a regular basis. I wouldn't say Sydney have been underwhelming, it would be arrogant to. Sydney have won the flag twice since 2005 and made the grand final 5 times since then. Sure not the success of Geelong and Hawthorn since then, but it's better than pretty much every other team in that period. Even then, Sydney only has one less premiership than Geelong in that period and one more Grand Final appearance than Geelong had.
GWS - There is still so much time for them to produce but the external pressure gauge is in the red and with such a young group its hard for them not to feel it!
Port - what they have done has brought the pressure onto themself!
Geelong - Have done exactly what Port have done except over a few more years and with two Prelim heartbreaks, both the internal and external pressure gauges have now moved into the red!
Sydney - I think they have higher expectations of themselves than whats coming externally, and that is a lot!
Adelaide - Still one of the best teams in the comp and with that tag comes expectations to produce!
Whilst their 2018 ceiling is not as high, StKilda, Collingwood and Melbourne will all be feeling the pressure to produce finals for their fans!
Port - what they have done has brought the pressure onto themself!
Geelong - Have done exactly what Port have done except over a few more years and with two Prelim heartbreaks, both the internal and external pressure gauges have now moved into the red!
Sydney - I think they have higher expectations of themselves than whats coming externally, and that is a lot!
Adelaide - Still one of the best teams in the comp and with that tag comes expectations to produce!
Whilst their 2018 ceiling is not as high, StKilda, Collingwood and Melbourne will all be feeling the pressure to produce finals for their fans!
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- May 20, 2014
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There is a big difference between having pick 7 and having pick 15.
Pick 7 you still have a shot at an elite mid or an elite key forward to build a side around. Selwood and Dangerfield case in point. Those kind of elite juniors don't slip beyond the top 10 very often. The odd example like a late developing Fyfe but not enough to go around 18 teams or for one club to pick multiple elite mids or key forwards required outside the top 10.
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- Jan 17, 2013
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GWS under the most pressure.