Political Discussion part #2 - Let’s go out for 10 Big Macs at the Engadine Maccas!!

[PrideOf]

You can also add when someone changes from one party to another.

Yep. It's pretty simple really. If you run at an election with a party platform, you see that through until the next election cycle like you said you would.

You want to step away from that, that's fine. But here's the bill.

 

[Vader]

Old Billy Shortpants is the Libs gift that keeps giving with his preferred Prime Minister numbers plummeting and Turnbull's on the rise after Billy's week from hell.

Either you, or The Australian, is only telling half the story (as usual).

Shorten's personal popularity is down. The ALP's 2PP is up - from 52-48 to 54-46.

 

[Vader]

Yeah right, I'm sure Paul Barry is very objective whilst holding 69,556 shares in left wing media Organisation Crikey....can't say I've ever heard or seen that disclosed in the credits. Perhaps you can point me to where Media Watch has discredited a Crikey article under Paul Barry's tenure?

http://www.abc.net.au/mediawatch/transcripts/s3758251.htm
That's all a quick google search of the mediawatch website turned up. A few other articles that mentioned Crikey, but that was the only one in which he took them down. Not a lot, given how long he's been the face of the show.

 

[Markthirtytwo2]

N/A = Not available in SA, O = producing zero, as you can see at that time there was a large deficit between what was being produced and demand. Battery was drawing power [Charging] at that time.

Edit : Hopefully the wind will pick up over there soon....

No but the sun is shining. And by the looks, we can buy some wind power from WA, so no probs.

 

[Markthirtytwo2]

Barely any wind in SA this afternoon or for that matter Australia, with the SA wind turbines contributing a miniscule 27 MW at 12.40PM EST and SA sucking on the teat of the coal states to meet demand......and burning plenty of that dastardly fossil fuel GAS.

You know having a close look at this chart, it is pretty damning that states like NSW and to a lesser extent WA either use none or little hydro when they have large water districts like the Snowy and the Ord. Then there is Qld where at least a quarter of the state has been in drought conditions but still using it.

To me this graph proves that governments have not/are not utilising their resources as they should.

 

[Vader]

No but the sun is shining. And by the looks, we can buy some wind power from WA, so no probs.

WA & NT aren't part of the national energy market. There's no connection between them and the Qld/NSW/Vic/ACT/SA/Tas network.

 

[Vader]

You know having a close look at this chart, it is pretty damning that states like NSW and to a lesser extent WA either use none or little hydro when they have large water districts like the Snowy and the Ord. Then there is Qld where at least a quarter of the state has been in drought conditions but still using it.

To me this graph proves that governments have not/are not utilising their resources as they should.

Methinks you don't really understand how it works...

The Ord is located way up in the Kimberley. To a certain extent it's a white elephant. It doesn't/can't provide water or electricity to the bulk of the WA population, which is largely in the SW corner of the state. The sheer distances involved make getting water/power to the SW uneconomical (at best). As a result it only provides water & power to a relatively small area in the NE corner of the state.

Similarly, the Snowy hydro scheme is not there to provide baseload power. It's used to provide peak load power, and they then pump the water back up the hill during the off-peak periods - noting that Bicks' snapshot was taken at an off-peak time.

 

[Vader]

Bullshit!

Facebook is blocked by uBlock, so I have no idea what you're quoting. I'm assuming it's the Newspoll result, which has Labor ahead 51-49 (same as before the budget).

The 54/46 result I was referring to is the Fairfax/Ipsos poll:
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/po...bor-in-budget-tax-battle-20180513-p4zf29.html

 

[Markthirtytwo2]

Methinks you don't really understand how it works...

The Ord is located way up in the Kimberley. To a certain extent it's a white elephant. It doesn't/can't provide water or electricity to the bulk of the WA population, which is largely in the SW corner of the state. The sheer distances involved make getting water/power to the SW uneconomical (at best). As a result it only provides water & power to a relatively small area in the NE corner of the state.

Similarly, the Snowy hydro scheme is not there to provide baseload power. It's used to provide peak load power, and they then pump the water back up the hill during the off-peak periods - noting that Bicks' snapshot was taken at an off-peak time.

I know where they are and have been on tours at both. That being said, it was quite a while ago, yet even then the touring people indicated at both places that in the ensuing years it is hope that they will provide not only water but power to Perth and at least Wollongong.

It was believed during those times that science and technology would provide to make that possible.

Bit like the Collins Class submarines that I worked on actually.

 

[Vader]

How convenient for you, last night's May 13 Newspoll was 51 ALP - 49 LNP 2PP as was also published in the Australian.

True to a point. I hadn't taken into account that The Australian were only going to mention their own Newspoll, not Fairfax/Ipsos.

It's still cherry picking. They still chose to focus on the good news for the Coalition, ignoring the bad news. Not exactly balanced reporting, though nobody expects balance from a Murdoch rag.

Newspoll shows no-change. Ipsos shows a 2-pt swing to Labor. Depending on which poll you prefer, it's either bad news, or very bad news, for the Coalition. They were banking on a bounce leading into the next election. At best they got nothing, at worst, Labor trumped them and sent them backwards.

 

[Vader]

I know where they are and have been on tours at both. That being said, it was quite a while ago, yet even then the touring people indicated at both places that in the ensuing years it is hope that they will provide not only water but power to Perth and at least Wollongong.

It was believed during those times that science and technology would provide to make that possible.

Bit like the Collins Class submarines that I worked on actually.

Wollongong?

The Ord is never going to provide power to Perth. The transmission losses, combined with the cost of building the transmission line, will never make it workable. I can see the Ord providing power for the mines in the Hammersleys, and the refineries at Dampier. For all I know it probably already does. It's never going all the way to Perth.

 

[Vader]

LOL

A SMH sponsored Ipsos poll taken from 1200 respondents from the Marrickville/Newtown electorate doesn't fool too many. 1200 respondents......

Dear God you're biased. Newspoll is unbiased, yet Ipsos takes its entire sample from Marrickville/Newtown? That's stupid, even by your low standards.

 

[Markthirtytwo2]

Wollongong?

The Ord is never going to provide power to Perth. The transmission losses, combined with the cost of building the transmission line, will never make it workable. I can see the Ord providing power for the mines in the Hammersleys, and the refineries at Dampier. For all I know it probably already does. It's never going all the way to Perth.

Like I said this was back in the 70s or early 80s. Hindsight is such a wonderful thing.

If this was China it would be done.

 

[Vader]

Newspoll result mentioned in this article:
https://www.theguardian.com/austral...to-turn-around-turnbulls-governments-fortunes

I don't have a problem with The Australian ignoring the Fairfax/Ipsos poll, particularly given that it's been released the same day as their own Newspoll. It's only natural that they would focus on the poll which they pay for.

My issue is with the lack of balance. They're very quick to tout Shorten's poor preferred PM result. They're strangely silent on the Coalition's lack of post-budget bounce in the 2PP result.

 

[Vader]

Like I said this was back in the 70s or early 80s. Hindsight is such a wonderful thing.

If this was China it would be done.

Even China wouldn't do it. The problem is Australia's unique geography. The Ord is just a hell of a long way from anywhere. Kununurra is over 3200km from Perth, no matter which route you take, and there's not a lot between the two.

I've just looked at the map. Even connecting the Ord to the Hammersley Ranges and Dampier/Karratha requires a 2000km long line. That's the equivalent of going from Adelaide to the WA border, and back again.

It's just not going to be economically feasible to connect it to the SW corner of the state.

 

[Vader]

You do realise since 2015 Newspoll isn't administered by The Australian/Murdoch?

It is administered independently by Galaxy Reserach with the results published in the Australian

http://www.galaxyresearch.com.au/

They still pay to use it, and rarely refer to any of the other polls in any of their stories. Not much different to Fairfax/Ipsos, who rarely refer to Newspoll.

 

[Markthirtytwo2]

Even China wouldn't do it. The problem is Australia's unique geography. The Ord is just a hell of a long way from anywhere. Kununurra is over 3200km from Perth, no matter which route you take, and there's not a lot between the two.

I've just looked at the map. Even connecting the Ord to the Hammersley Ranges and Dampier/Karratha requires a 2000km long line. That's the equivalent of going from Adelaide to the WA border, and back again.

It's just not going to be economically feasible to connect it to the SW corner of the state.

Bet 10 years ago, people would be saying that China couldn't build their own islands in the South China Sea either.

 

[Vader]

I have absolutely no problems with that dichotomy at all.

On a personal level, Shorten lost out big time. His sliminess was at its most blatant and obvious, and his personal popularity took a nose dive (with Turnbull's skyrocketing in response).

On a party level, there's little doubt that Labor came through the Budget period with an offering which was preferred by the bulk of the voting public.

 

[Vader]

Aside from his Newspoll remark I can't either...

It's hard to see any of the Greens' preferences going to the Coalition. Strangely though, Odd Notion supporters seem to have an each way bet. Their preferences favour the Coalition, but the ALP get a lot more of them than you'd logically expect.

The voters are trending away from the major parties with their primary votes, but our voting system means that it still boils down to 2PP, which is why a relatively low primary vote can rise dramatically in terms of 2PP.

 

[Vader]

It seems Political Commentator Van Onselen sees it a little different. You know that bloke that had a spot on the SkyNews until he moved on in 2018 and is now a regular on the ABC's Insiders and the Drum, and more recently has hosted the Drum and Matter Of Fact programs.

https://www.theaustralian.com.au/op...p/news-story/a05ac20fd7250fff51d321911c46fcba

Newspoll: Pressure may intensify on Bill Shorten’s leadership

No, I don't watch Insiders or The Drum, and Sky TV is only marginally better than Fox News. I can't say that I've even heard of Van Onselen.

How does any of this contradict what I said?

I find it amusing that he's willing to take the Fairfax/Ipsos poll's margin of error into account, but not Newspoll's. If Fairfax's maximum up side error margin is almost the same as Newspoll's headline figure, then Newspoll's down side error margin is similarly the same as Fairfax's headline figure. Strange that Van Onselen only mentions the figure which is more positive to the Coalition.

I'm not sure that I can agree with his final conclusion either. Turnbull may have a low approval rating, but he's still rated more highly than pretty much any of the Coalition's leadership alternatives. Is he a drag, if he's widely seen by the voting public as being the Coalition's least worst option?

In contrast, I do agree that Shorten is a huge drag on Labor. As you've said repeatedly, he's Turnbull's greatest electoral asset. Unlike the Libs, the ALP do have some other alternatives who poll better than Shorten, starting with Albanese. Unfortunately, KRudd's parting gift to the ALP was a system which makes it virtually impossible to depose the leader, without losing an election first.

There's no doubt that Shorten's personal rating has taken a hit as a result of the S44 debacle. He staked his personal reputation on it, with his "rolled gold promise", only to have the HC throw it back in his face. He'd played dirty politics, and it came back to bite him big time. Shorten made Turnbull look good in contrast, which is why people suddenly felt more "satisfied" with him as PM.

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

Either you, or The Australian, is only telling half the story (as usual).

Shorten's personal popularity is down. The ALP's 2PP is up - from 52-48 to 54-46.

Imagine the 2PP if the ALP dumped Shorten for Albanese!

 

[Cap]

On news radio this morning there was an interview with the former head of newspoll.

Was very interesting, he did mention that they know that their poll (atleast when he was there) had a one and half point bias towards Labor.

So a 49/51 lead would in effect be 0.5?

 

[PrideOf]

Imagine the 2PP if the ALP dumped Shorten for Albanese!

Imagine the ALP if they dumped Shorten for anyone. Shame they're bound by union politics to select their leaders.

 

[Vader]

Imagine the ALP is they dumped Shorten for anyone. Shame they're bound by union politics to select their leaders.

Unfortunately, KRudd left the ALP with a parting gift - a rule change which makes it almost impossible to dump an underperforming leader mid-term. They have a leadership ballot after every losing election, but other than that the leader pretty much has a job for life.

The Coalition would be looking at near annihilation if Albanese was the Labor party leader. Shorten is keeping the Coalition on life support.

 

[PrideOf]

Unfortunately, KRudd left the ALP with a parting gift - a rule change which makes it almost impossible to dump an underperforming leader mid-term. They have a leadership ballot after every losing election, but other than that the leader pretty much has a job for life.

The Coalition would be looking at near annihilation if Albanese was the Labor party leader. Shorten is keeping the Coalition on life support.

Yep. Shorten is to the Libs what Marshall was to the Labs down here.

And that was another of KRudd's brilliant ideas that flew so well around a conference table, but made life worse once released into the wild.