Analysis 2018 List Management discussion Part 1 (continued in Part 2 - see OP for link)

[Masqualero]

Imo you can put Kerridge in the same boat as Casboult whereas there are a lot of people that just dont want to admit/acknowledge the improvement both have made to their games .
Casboult with his goalkicking and Kerridge with his disposal .
Yes Kerridge still makes some errors like every other player but has cleaned up his disposal and decision making enormously since returning to the senior side .
And as such has been a valuable contributor to the side . Especially as he also adds a terrific work ethic and fitness level that in general we lack in our side due to the amount of youngsters we play each week .
If this changes again then sure he will need to be moved on .

He is playing a role at the moment and is doing ok at it, he's doing what we need at least and we don't have a better option at the moment.

I don't see a role for him in a better side, you can't have that many skill errors at his experience.

Its not as though its an early days Curnow who racks it up and although his kicks were ugly they were going to the right spots.

He's a great player, I just don't think he is AFL level though.

Just keep in mind there is a reason our team is where they are on the ladder, I think some people on this board forget that sometimes.

 

[BRADLESTICKS]

Amazing that Gibbs and Murphy our two best and most consistent players for the last decade still get underrated around here, I don’t see how they could have done much more for the club with the limited support around them.

Everything is always their fault, they will be accused of being the shooters on the grassy knoll next, it is a massive cop out to blame these two instead of the real problem which was the drafting and development that we had around them

 

[SkyhorseTamer]

Thats right...The 'development issue" Carlton carries around its neck is somehow forgotten with Crippa. We drafted him, we developed him into the player he is today. We've done it with Crippa, so lets do it with Dow, LOB, Weitering et al.

Champions succeed in any environment. Crippa is a champion.

 

[katmanblue]

Lukosius for the Blues.

You forgot the '4 Eva'

On [device_name] using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Iamcarlton]

He is playing a role at the moment and is doing ok at it, he's doing what we need at least and we don't have a better option at the moment.

I don't see a role for him in a better side, you can't have that many skill errors at his experience.

Its not as though its an early days Curnow who racks it up and although his kicks were ugly they were going to the right spots.

He's a great player, I just don't think he is AFL level though.

Just keep in mind there is a reason our team is where they are on the ladder, I think some people on this board forget that sometimes.

Yes injuries and the management of our playing group .
Im not concerned about our playing group as it is talented but does have missing pieces that need attending to . Nor concerned about individual players such as Kerridge etc as that will play out in time .
I have more concerns off the field and our competency as a club starting from the head coach to the fitness staff/medical team and our head of football as to whether they are making the right decisions to enable our side/players to put its best foot forward .
And will they make the same mistakes next year .

 

[Soapy V]

Thats why i said get lynch. Trade pick 1 to adelaide for currently pick 10 and pick 11 (sloane compo) and a swap of later picks. Get mids.

We bring in a gun forward. We get mids. We surely can balance our tpp. That part is the easier of it all

We aren’t chasing Lynch and IMO not what we need

 

[95bluemember]

Thats right...The 'development issue" Carlton carries around its neck is somehow forgotten with Crippa. We drafted him, we developed him into the player he is today. We've done it with Crippa, so lets do it with Dow, LOB, Weitering et al.

Rubbish, Cripps is an instinctive footballer I'm sure we didn't developed his 'flick over the shoulder' handball the kid just had "it" from the get go. We have a terrible record of player development!!!

 

[95bluemember]

Amazing that Gibbs and Murphy our two best and most consistent players for the last decade still get underrated around here, I don’t see how they could have done much more for the club with the limited support around them.

Everything is always their fault, they will be accused of being the shooters on the grassy knoll next, it is a massive cop out to blame these two instead of the real problem which was the drafting and development that we had around them

I think you forgot left out a very important word "was" with these 2 players, same applies to Daisy.
Two gun players in for Daisy and Murphy would make the world of difference. I'll start taking SOS alot more seriously once Daisy is shown the door....Mick's love child should have been sent packing with him!

 

[Soapy V]

I think you forgot left out a very important word "was" with these 2 players, same applies to Daisy.
Two gun players in for Daisy and Murphy would make the world of difference. I'll start taking SOS alot more seriously once Daisy is shown the door....Mick's love child should have been sent packing with him!

It's all part of the list turnover until we get where we need to be. By end of the draft this year our list will be very close to where we want it with only modest changes each year after.

Daisy has been more than handy this year especially with the injuries. I don't see him on the list next year as we will make 8-10 changes and with hopefully a better run with injuries he's not needed. He also won't get any better or quicker and I see him struggling to play a full season.

Murphy I hope stays. Been a good Captain through the tough times and I can see him being a very good small forward/wing as we get better. Having him up forward with McKay Kerr Charlie LeBois etc is a bonus. IMO he is a very underrated goalkicker. Like to see him have some success.

Next year if our "experienced" players are Murphy Curnow Kruezer Cripps Docherty Rowe/ASOS Plowman Jones we are in a good spot. We will also add a couple of ready made very good players. By then Weitering Charlie Marchbank SPS Fisher Jack Lang Kennedy Williamson are ready to step up and become consistent influential AFL players.

 

[Cutz]

Rubbish, Cripps is an instinctive footballer I'm sure we didn't developed his 'flick over the shoulder' handball the kid just had "it" from the get go. We have a terrible record of player development!!!

All Crippa was when we drafted him was a kid with a heap of talent ( like all kids that get drafted-they're talented young footballers that need to work in the gym and develop an AFL tank) and some height. No one saw the contested beast he was to become now. No one. He grew a few more centimeters and started to find his way. I'm seeing the same learning curve for Fisher, and Dow. Dows learning curve has been amazing, & JSOS to a lesser extent appears to be moving forward albeit a tad slower than the rest. Look at McKay-Another example of a player who is producing just a little more than he has last year..getting a few more games , slotting one or 2 a game. He got dropped over the weekend, and Ill bet it wont be the last time. The point is...the learning curve has to keep rolling upwards.

The point is this...I dont care what we've been like in the past, I care about what and how we develop for the future, thats why Im on this list management thread all day. This is a FULL LIST REBUILD...there's gonna be pain...but when it comes together...this site will go in complete and utter meltdown.

 

[JustaBattler]

When you trade out developed proven AFL quality players in order to gain some currency ( picks) to commence a total rebuild you enter unknown territory. There are three major variables impacting on the rate of success in the equation.

1. Management of the whole process
2. Unknown ability of replacement players under development to be developed
3. Unexpected constraints and setbacks

1. Management of Process

In my mind there is no doubt that SOS brings a better systemic approach to list management. However, a better approach to previous regime - doesn't equate to guaranteed success.
In my mind Bolton is a better alternative to Malthouse. Better than Malthouse too doesn't equate to guaranteed success.
Both SOS and Bolton (shorthand for their teams) are operating under a significant constraint and that is lack of total control over development platform - ie Carlton unlike most of its competitors do not control their own VFL/Reserves team.

2. Unknown ability of players to be developed

Each and every player will have different physical and mental capability to be developed into high quality AFL player. Some of the players chosen have come to Carlton carrying negative physical indicators - Marchbank/Kennedy/Lang/Pickett have all come to Carlton previously injured and requiring surgery. Smedts is another example.
Some players develop physical injury which needs to be managed: McKay/Williamson are two obvious examples but Polson/SOJ have had to be repaired, whilst SPS has had pre-season injury constraining physical development. MacCreadie has been injury prone in 2018.
Docherty/Rowe/ASOS/Byrne are examples of more mature players who copped severe injury constraining their input into team development - Murphy can be added to list this year - as was Cripps and Ed Curnow last year.

So in context of management of process - player ability/bad luck - limits the capability to even plan for a development regime as far as coaching and teaching a game plan goes.

3. Unexpected constraints and setbacks

List management might have plan A,B and C in place to improve the balance and capability of the list - but ultimately, access to required player types is not a given. eg There is no doubt that Carton was seeking to bolster its midfield stocks and running ability at the end of season 2017 via trade. However, targeted players decided against joining Carlton - for whatever reason and in the end Carlton got (only) Kennedy and Lang - both of whom have been unavailable for most of the year to date.

Pre-season planning and game plan development looked to be on track for an exciting year of progress. the JLT games and Richmond game had Carlton poised to make huge strides in development as far as adding a genuinely dangerous rebound game - unexpected injury to keep players has taken a full half year of development away from Carlton - as well as placing massive pressure on fit but under age and under developed players to perform week in week out.

I think that the process of rebuild is a process in itself - looking at other Clubs who have gone through similar challenge - indicates that the 66 game rebuild scenario is nothing more than a minimum time period to work to - an aspiration.

Right now the Club is probably slightly behind its own personal targets and indicators- for reasons mainly out of its own control. However, an accelerated improvement judged by wins against opponents can occur in second half of season - but a few wins wont mean much in teh context of having completed a rebuild. Adequate let alone ample coverage of positions will require some significant new player additions - on top of drafting to maintain sustainable long term age profile.

 

[Metalcrusher]

When you trade out developed proven AFL quality players in order to gain some currency ( picks) to commence a total rebuild you enter unknown territory. There are three major variables impacting on the rate of success in the equation.

1. Management of the whole process
2. Unknown ability of replacement players under development to be developed
3. Unexpected constraints and setbacks

1. Management of Process

In my mind there is no doubt that SOS brings a better systemic approach to list management. However, a better approach to previous regime - doesn't equate to guaranteed success.
In my mind Bolton is a better alternative to Malthouse. Better than Malthouse too doesn't equate to guaranteed success.
Both SOS and Bolton (shorthand for their teams) are operating under a significant constraint and that is lack of total control over development platform - ie Carlton unlike most of its competitors do not control their own VFL/Reserves team.

2. Unknown ability of players to be developed

Each and every player will have different physical and mental capability to be developed into high quality AFL player. Some of the players chosen have come to Carlton carrying negative physical indicators - Marchbank/Kennedy/Lang/Pickett have all come to Carlton previously injured and requiring surgery. Smedts is another example.
Some players develop physical injury which needs to be managed: McKay/Williamson are two obvious examples but Polson/SOJ have had to be repaired, whilst SPS has had pre-season injury constraining physical development. MacCreadie has been injury prone in 2018.
Docherty/Rowe/ASOS/Byrne are examples of more mature players who copped severe injury constraining their input into team development - Murphy can be added to list this year - as was Cripps and Ed Curnow last year.

So in context of management of process - player ability/bad luck - limits the capability to even plan for a development regime as far as coaching and teaching a game plan goes.

3. Unexpected constraints and setbacks

List management might have plan A,B and C in place to improve the balance and capability of the list - but ultimately, access to required player types is not a given. eg There is no doubt that Carton was seeking to bolster its midfield stocks and running ability at the end of season 2017 via trade. However, targeted players decided against joining Carlton - for whatever reason and in the end Carlton got (only) Kennedy and Lang - both of whom have been unavailable for most of the year to date.

Pre-season planning and game plan development looked to be on track for an exciting year of progress. the JLT games and Richmond game had Carlton poised to make huge strides in development as far as adding a genuinely dangerous rebound game - unexpected injury to keep players has taken a full half year of development away from Carlton - as well as placing massive pressure on fit but under age and under developed players to perform week in week out.

I think that the process of rebuild is a process in itself - looking at other Clubs who have gone through similar challenge - indicates that the 66 game rebuild scenario is nothing more than a minimum time period to work to - an aspiration.

Right now the Club is probably slightly behind its own personal targets and indicators- for reasons mainly out of its own control. However, an accelerated improvement judged by wins against opponents can occur in second half of season - but a few wins wont mean much in teh context of having completed a rebuild. Adequate let alone ample coverage of positions will require some significant new player additions - on top of drafting to maintain sustainable long term age profile.

That's a pretty damn fine post JAB

 

[pinot]

Lukosius for the Blues.

he's a good kid that will take at least three years to come good and then its a maybe. Like Jack Watts.

I'd like us to trade pick 1 for a proven under 25 A grader and couple of picks back.

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

He is playing a role at the moment and is doing ok at it, he's doing what we need at least and we don't have a better option at the moment.

I don't see a role for him in a better side, you can't have that many skill errors at his experience.

Its not as though its an early days Curnow who racks it up and although his kicks were ugly they were going to the right spots.

He's a great player, I just don't think he is AFL level though.

Just keep in mind there is a reason our team is where they are on the ladder, I think some people on this board forget that sometimes.

I think the problem is he is our 14-18 best player when really he should be our 20-22
If we had another 4 A grade players in our side and were pushing for top 4 I would much prefer him in the side over the vast majority of our kids ATM. The problem is he will never be good enough to carry players but I think he could easily play a roll in a good side coming off the bench.

 

[pinot]

I think the problem is he is our 14-18 best player when really he should be our 20-22
If we had another 4 A grade players in our side and were pushing for top 4 I would much prefer him in the side over the vast majority of our kids ATM. The problem is he will never be good enough to carry players but I think he could easily play a roll in a good side coming off the bench.

Kerridge is underrated we need workhorses in the team that has some tricks and runs hard and goes in hard all day. Every player makes mistakes his disposal is above average

 

[The Bighouse]

I’m really positive that we have a great group of kids.

We need to cut
Mullett
O’Shea
Graham
Byrne**
McDaid
ASOS
Shaw
.

Agree with the youngsters but McDaid, really; a Cat B development year (effectively, doesn’t take up a list spot apart from another Irish prospect) who has been injured for most of the season.

Needs a chance to play. Some decent disposal should be something to look forward to after the bye.

 

[Masqualero]

I think the problem is he is our 14-18 best player when really he should be our 20-22
If we had another 4 A grade players in our side and were pushing for top 4 I would much prefer him in the side over the vast majority of our kids ATM. The problem is he will never be good enough to carry players but I think he could easily play a roll in a good side coming off the bench.

Maybe but he would need to increase his inside work to be effective, possibly a Sewell type role in a good side.

To the bolded, that would depend on the balance of the team, can't really say who would fit better until you can see who is available.

Kerridge is underrated we need workhorses in the team that has some tricks and runs hard and goes in hard all day. Every player makes mistakes his disposal is above average

Sorry but I disagree, you could argue he is an average kick but he is too inconsistent to be considered a good kick or above average.

 

[pinot]

Maybe but he would need to increase his inside work to be effective, possibly a Sewell type role in a good side.

To the bolded, that would depend on the balance of the team, can't really say who would fit better until you can see who is available.


Sorry but I disagree, you could argue he is an average kick but he is too inconsistent to be considered a good kick or above average.

that's your unaccounted bias against a Carlton player which I take issue.

Who would you prefer Kerridge or Greenwood - Kerridge is a year younger and in a poor team

https://www.footywire.com/afl/footy...d2=2&type=A&pid1=3665&pid2=4151&fid1=S&fid2=S

 

[LanceRomance]

that's your unaccounted bias against a Carlton player which I take issue.

Who would you prefer Kerridge or Greenwood - Kerridge is a year younger and in a poor team

https://www.footywire.com/afl/footy...d2=2&type=A&pid1=3665&pid2=4151&fid1=S&fid2=S

Surely you keep Kerridge? He has been very durable and has improved massively.

Just needs to hit the scoreboard

 

[gab213]

All Crippa was when we drafted him was a kid with a heap of talent ( like all kids that get drafted-they're talented young footballers that need to work in the gym and develop an AFL tank) and some height. No one saw the contested beast he was to become now. No one.

The club had a good idea of what it was getting when it selected Cripps at the draft, concerns about his lack of fitness is what meant he was still available at pick 13, so yes he needed to develop a tank.


And Blues chief recruiter Shane Rogers says the West Australian midfielder has a "Diesel Williams-like brain", revealing Carlton identified Cripps as their No. 1 target months ago.



http://www.heraldsun.com.au/carlton...s/news-story/514e1172ead5291eb83125c8878ce0d1

 

[Styxx]

If the season ended todaywe have picks 1, 23 and 28.

Three inside the top 30 which isn't too bad.

 

[Cutz]

The club had a good idea of what it was getting when it selected Cripps at the draft, concerns about his lack of fitness is what meant he was still available at pick 13, so yes he needed to develop a tank.


And Blues chief recruiter Shane Rogers says the West Australian midfielder has a "Diesel Williams-like brain", revealing Carlton identified Cripps as their No. 1 target months ago.



http://www.heraldsun.com.au/carlton...s/news-story/514e1172ead5291eb83125c8878ce0d1

Yep..He still needed work. Work that some might call development. We and he did that. He came on. We can develop. Re the above quote ..The only player Ive ever seen that had a brain even remotely like Diesel was Sam Mitchel. Even he wasn't even half as good as possibly the greatest mid who ever played the game. Im 47 years old, and seen some Carlton rippers...But Diesel was some thin else !!

 

[HarryFlashman]

If Casboult comes back and plays some good footy, what’s he worth on the open market pick wise?

 

[LanceRomance]

If Casboult comes back and plays some good footy, what’s he worth on the open market pick wise?

Whatever someone pays for him

 

[The Bighouse]

If the season ended todaywe have picks 1, 23 and 28.

Three inside the top 30 which isn't too bad.

I believe at the bye mark is where it should end. We’ll take them, thanks.