Bluemour Discussion Thread X

[KohPhi]

He isn't being looked at in isolation like that. Basically we want Walsh, Adelaide want pick #1.

Walsh would be a fantastic addition to our club.. my question though is if it's common knowledge that we will take Walsh, why doesn't Adelaide just deal with GC for pick 2?

Edit; unless they know GC want Lukoscius as well. Carry on.

 

[FlowersByIrene]

The thing that doesn’t stick for me is why Freo drafted him if he presented as a flight risk? Surely such risks would have been flagged during their interview with him?

Backed themselves in and lost. I do it almost every weekend on the old sportsbet

 

[BuxbaumBixby]

Lots more talk about Shiel coming to us. Next years First round will do it. GWS need Salary Cap relief. I am hoping where there is smoke there is fire. He would be a great get and really help us in 2019

Shiel McGovern and Pick One (Walsh) is a great start to the off season

Looking at the GWS list ... with the emergence of Himmelberg (and to a lesser extent Bonar) .... the obvious place to start in terms of salary cap relief would be Patton wouldn't it? Wondering if we end up having to do some sort of package deal again where we get something we don't really want in order to get Shiel.

 

[CJMB]

Fish is averaging 20 touches a game this year. Not a huge leap to 25 one would think ….

This year he's averaged 19.2 and 10 of his 17 games were 19 or less possessions. Even if we disregard his last game (9 possessions) he'd still have to up his increase his output by ~26% to hit that 25 average.

It's a sizable jump. Not saying he can't do it, and definitely saying I don't want it to happen, I just think maybe it's best to temper our expectations a touch.

The jump from 12 to 19 for his second season is nothing to sneeze at and should be commended. For mine, being realistic, if he can lift his general output by about 10% and take his 'floor' up to about a 17 then I'll be stoked and he'll be averaging about 22. 22 from Fisher is going to be bloody noticeable and probably something opposition coaches will be cognisant of...

 

[Iamcarlton]

A few thoughts...

We need Pick 1 for Sam Walsh.

Quite confident we aren’t getting a pre-first round priority pick. I believe it will be mid-first round.

McGovern is a great get. There (was) another Victorian team in the mix but you can basically lock it in. JSOS? Kerr? Please, stop. McGovern is 50x better than any of those names.

McGovern’s value is much closer to a mid-first round (& even end-of-first round) PP than Pick 1, so that would be the starting point. Once you start talking Pick 1, it becomes the most valuable asset (by far) in the trade. It then becomes less a case of us trading for McGovern and more a case of Adelaide trading for Pick 1. Then, the same principle applies - it will take an unprecedented bounty to prise Walsh from SOS’ grasp. We aren’t Gold Coast.

2019 1st is in play to get deals done. Very valuable asset.

Looking at it with tunnell vision of course Mcgovern is better he's had 3 more years development and plays in a side that has an AFL standard midfield .
In 2 years time will the gap have closed between the 3 .
In Kerrs case a player that has played 4 senior games if given enough opportunity the gap will have closed significantly imo .
So therefore does it become a wasted high pick when we have Charlie and Harry locking down the key forward posts for the next 10 years .

 

[Soapy V]

Looking at the GWS list ... with the emergence of Himmelberg (and to a lesser extent Bonar) .... the obvious place to start in terms of salary cap relief would be Patton wouldn't it? Wondering if we end up having to do some sort of package deal again where we get something we don't really want in order to get Shiel.

Not for me. I don't rate him and he is injury prone. I think our salary cap deals are in the past

 

[majesticseacapt]

Not for me. I don't rate him and he is injury prone. I think our salary cap deals are in the past

Agreed, Harry is coming along nicely, Charlie will be something special and if we get mcgovern then Patton offers nothing.

 

[HereComesJuddy]

If Cerra is on the table this year, i expect thats where either our mid 2018 pp or our 2019 1st will go. Feel SOS will want a group of kids relatively the same age to grow together. Add Walsh to the mix and we now have:
Dow
Cerra
Walsh
SPS
LOB
Fisher

All extremely close in age.

There's a part of me that is wondering if SPS wants to get back to WA. Definitely dont want to lose him, but can't shake this feeling.

 

[F_therest]

A few thoughts...

We need Pick 1 for Sam Walsh.

Quite confident we aren’t getting a pre-first round priority pick. I believe it will be mid-first round.

McGovern is a great get. There (was) another Victorian team in the mix but you can basically lock it in. JSOS? Kerr? Please, stop. McGovern is 50x better than any of those names.

McGovern’s value is much closer to a mid-first round (& even end-of-first round) PP than Pick 1, so that would be the starting point. Once you start talking Pick 1, it becomes the most valuable asset (by far) in the trade. It then becomes less a case of us trading for McGovern and more a case of Adelaide trading for Pick 1. Then, the same principle applies - it will take an unprecedented bounty to prise Walsh from SOS’ grasp. We aren’t Gold Coast.

2019 1st is in play to get deals done. Very valuable asset.

Thanks trp.

Agree about McGovern being miles better than Kerr and jsos who are very much unproven.

My only concern is just that he has had an injury plagued past and not sure he's worth the money and trade assets I assume he will cost. A bit inconsistent as well, thoufh still on the young side.

Also I guess I'm influenced by current trend seemingly being smaller forward lines are working best. With mcgov we will obviously go the three talls with McKay and curnow as well...though I get they are all mobile so could work well.

Need to move casboult on...next year we could have silly amount of key forwards/rucks...mcgovern, McKay, curnow, casboult, Kerr, jsos, Bsos, tdk, kreuzer, Phillips, lobbe.

Key forwards/rucks shouldn't take a quarter of our list.

 

[Gethelred]

Not for me. I don't rate him and he is injury prone. I think our salary cap deals are in the past

I'd be inclined to agree, but I really do think that, at some point over the next ten or so years, Jon Patton is going to show up a lot of people. He might do it for one season, he might do a Hawkins and go from being a genuine scrub to winning his team a flag and being the dominant FF for a period of 4 or so years, but at some point he'll get a bit of continuity, and a bit of confidence in his body. To this point, we've only seen how he plays when he can't rely on his knees to let him turn around, ergo he has the turning circle of the Spirit of Tasmania; goes for the mark, and cannot follow up on his work once it hits the deck.

If he regains anything resembling a bit of continuity and confidence that his knees aren't going to desert him if he turns sharply, look out. He'd be a completely different player.

 

[ferrisb]

Don't be a smart arse ... I live in Osaka, Japan and for its worth I don't watch every game of AFL. I try to watch as many games of Carlton as I can and I certainly don't have the time or inclination even to be hanging out on the Crows board. I just asked some innocent questions, hoping to get some helpful and informative answers ... I certainly don't expect ridicule or a condescending reply. I thought we were all supporting the same team ... but if you can't say something polite or civil, don't bother to respond !!!

I have lived in Melb my whole life and hardly give a F about other teams

 

[ferrisb]

From 10am Monday October 8 - 8.30pm Wednesday October 17

I'm looking at flights, thinking New York

I don't want to alarm you, Stam the man. But I think they have internet in New York.

 

[Soapy V]

If Cerra is on the table this year, i expect thats where either our mid 2018 pp or our 2019 1st will go. Feel SOS will want a group of kids relatively the same age to grow together. Add Walsh to the mix and we now have:
Dow
Cerra
Walsh
SPS
LOB
Fisher

All extremely close in age.

There's a part of me that is wondering if SPS wants to get back to WA. Definitely dont want to lose him, but can't shake this feeling.

Plus Shiel (25) would be great, Cripps is 23, Kennedy 21 and Curnow is 28. Good balance with skills and age

 

[Soapy V]

I'd be inclined to agree, but I really do think that, at some point over the next ten or so years, Jon Patton is going to show up a lot of people. He might do it for one season, he might do a Hawkins and go from being a genuine scrub to winning his team a flag and being the dominant FF for a period of 4 or so years, but at some point he'll get a bit of continuity, and a bit of confidence in his body. To this point, we've only seen how he plays when he can't rely on his knees to let him turn around, ergo he has the turning circle of the Spirit of Tasmania; goes for the mark, and cannot follow up on his work once it hits the deck.

If he regains anything resembling a bit of continuity and confidence that his knees aren't going to desert him if he turns sharply, look out. He'd be a completely different player.

Big players with knee issues worry me. He wasn't quick or agile to start with

 

[ferrisb]

Props for the MP contribution but its more like this, where Cleese is SOS and Palin is Reid #schooled

No it isn't.....

 

[CJMB]

Just having a bit of a stab in the dark here...

Ignoring Shiel for now, but say we want Walsh, Cerra, Brodie & McGovern and guess (I could be off here) that they're obtainable with 3, 6, 13 & 20 respectively, or 6109 points using that system.

We've currently got 1, 24, 25, 65, & 73 which 4640 points, probably only allows 3 or the 4 above (after some pick trading/shuffling). Drop in a mid first PP and we're getting pretty close to 6000 points so getting close to possible.

Could we do Shiel for a future first with something coming back, maybe a late 3rd or super early 4th in that 45-55 range. That's probably enough to get our remaining picks (after trades/shuffling) to a position where we might be able to make those first 4 names happen (along with maybe BSOS & Collins or someone at the tail end of the draft).

If we trade picks a few times to help other clubs we might be able to make a bit of a 'profit' on them, like our 16+40 for WBD 28+30+future 3rd (worst case scenario if the dogs finished first we still would have got a 23% increase on points, currently looking like we'll get nearly 40%) or any trade involving #1 which might effectively have a margin put on it if there's some competition o (or Ade get desperate).

Out: 2019 1st, 1, 12, 24, 25, 65, 73 (before PP & comp picks shuffle numbers, CBF adjusting for that)
In: Shiel, Walsh, Cerra, Brodie, McGovern, Collins, Silvagni

Good mix of additionas across the park:
Shiel: inside-outside/burst & spread
Walsh: balanced, accumulator
Cerra: balanced, classy user
Brodie: inside bull
McGovern: 3rd tall/HHF/swingman
Collins: KPD/intercept def
Silvagni: project tall defender

Not sure if my player valuations are on point or not, but I think something like this is possible. How probable? who knows...

 

[Gethelred]

Big players with knee issues worry me. He wasn't quick or agile to start with

I know, and I don't want him traded to us; we've talented KPF's already, without the knee issues.

I just think the majority have completely written him off, and there's a better chance than is commonly thought that he'll get some continuity at some point. Right now, the game doesn't suit players like him, but who's to say that the game may not change, or that after a string of performances he finally starts to play at the level he's only hinted at to this point?

Two years ago, Jaeger O'Meara was a risk too egregious to take. Now, he's borderline AA, and he's got more football to play before he even reaches his peak. People write off that which they don't see, and memories are too short as far as I'm concerned.

 

[DollarsandSense]

If Cerra is on the table this year, i expect thats where either our mid 2018 pp or our 2019 1st will go. Feel SOS will want a group of kids relatively the same age to grow together. Add Walsh to the mix and we now have:
Dow
Cerra
Walsh
SPS
LOB
Fisher

All extremely close in age.

There's a part of me that is wondering if SPS wants to get back to WA. Definitely dont want to lose him, but can't shake this feeling.

Drooooooool
Throw in Cripps... OMG.

 

[BuxbaumBixby]

Not for me. I don't rate him and he is injury prone. I think our salary cap deals are in the past

I'm not suggesting that we "Go for Patton" .... just that in order to deal with GWS for Shiel we might need to take some of their baggage again.

 

[F_therest]

I'm not suggesting that we "Go for Patton" .... just that in order to deal with GWS for Shiel we might need to take some of their baggage again.

Take scully if taking 'baggage'.
Patton would be total waste of money and list spot if we get McGovern.

 

[Soapy V]

I'm not suggesting that we "Go for Patton" .... just that in order to deal with GWS for Shiel we might need to take some of their baggage again.

I understand but Patton wouldn't cost nothing and I think we are past that

 

[BuxbaumBixby]

I know, and I don't want him traded to us; we've talented KPF's already, without the knee issues.

I just think the majority have completely written him off, and there's a better chance than is commonly thought that he'll get some continuity at some point. Right now, the game doesn't suit players like him, but who's to say that the game may not change, or that after a string of performances he finally starts to play at the level he's only hinted at to this point?

Two years ago, Jaeger O'Meara was a risk too egregious to take. Now, he's borderline AA, and he's got more football to play before he even reaches his peak. People write off that which they don't see, and memories are too short as far as I'm concerned.

I wouldn't be surprised to see Patton finish out his career behind the ball.

.... and stop using words like 'egregious'

 

[F_therest]

loving the rumours, but would love to hear us linked with some small/medium forwards...huge area of need right behind midfield.

Wright, Pickett, garlett, polson, lebois doesn't even come close to being acceptable.

Someone like melksham who only cost melbourne mid second rounder and kicked 4 goals on the weekend.

 

[ferrisb]

Paris unfortunately, is a dump these days.

I hear Paris is a pisser these days!

 

[Weitbricks]

I'm not suggesting that we "Go for Patton" .... just that in order to deal with GWS for Shiel we might need to take some of their baggage again.

I agree that Patton likely to get squeezed out but can’t see us taking him when a team like the Gold Coast would have more interest and something to offer.