Analysis 2019 List, Game Plan and Best 22?

[caesar88]

I wonder how many of our new or as yet untried players we can expect to get debut games this year. I guess it will be influenced by the performance of senior players, the numbers of injuries we cop during the year and the form the untried players exhibit in the ressies.

The general expectation seems to be that Blakey and RowyaBoat will get starts as well as the three blokes we recruited from other Clubs.

Who else do folk think may get a crack?

I like the look of Zac Foot but looking at his size alone tells me he'd struggle if thrown in this year, ditto McInerney. Aside from the two you mentioned, it's inevitable Ling will get a crack if he's ready to. But that's just about it, unless there is a Papley-esque bolter in the bunch that we don't know about yet, or someone like Stoddart has a Florent-esque second year.

 

[Grand Uncle Horace]

I like the look of Zac Foot but looking at his size alone tells me he'd struggle if thrown in this year, ditto McInerney. Aside from the two you mentioned, it's inevitable Ling will get a crack if he's ready to. But that's just about it, unless there is a Papley-esque bolter in the bunch that we don't know about yet, or someone like Stoddart has a Florent-esque second year.

Of course ...smacks noggin ... I had totally forgotten about Ling.

Absolute bolters would be Bell or Joels ASmartey.

Both showed a bit in the ressies last year. Amartey has terrific athleticism and endeavour but may lack game smarts, which are bloody hard to teach. Bell has neat disposal and composure, suggesting game smarts.I hope both those kids continue their development.

 

[caesar88]

Of course ...smacks noggin ... I had totally forgotten about Ling.

Absolute bolters would be Bell or Joels ASmartey.

Both showed a bit in the ressies last year. Amartey has terrific athleticism and endeavour but may lack game smarts, which are bloody hard to teach. Bell has neat disposal and composure, suggesting game smarts.I hope both those kids continue their development.

Yeah they are probably my two picks of 'the rest', if only because they each bring something we're lacking, Bell hard runners in the midfield, Amartey athletic talls.

 

[Punts]

Sounds of it paps will be playing a lot more in the midfield

 

[caesar88]

Ridiculous as far as I'm concerned and I don't think my mind's going to be changed haha

 

[Grand Uncle Horace]

He will be good but then will get smashed. He is just the wrong size. As opposed to a Daniels he is full bore and opens himself to getting thumped. Makes me worry for his longevity. Of course the fwd line would suffer too.

 

[caesar88]

I did the ladder predictor (which the AFL site finally brought back early!) and I had us finishing ninth, sliding in and out of the top 8 basically every month or so, at one point reaching as high as 4th, but at another reaching as low as 13th. The top 8 I had was Collingwood, Hawthorn, Richmond, Melbourne, the Bulldogs, West Coast, Adelaide and Essendon. We'll be equal on points with West Coast, Adelaide and Essendon but will miss out on percentage.

FWIW, I go OK with forecasting the future. I predicted Bin Laden's death 2 days before it happened!

 

[TheMase]

I don’t mind Papley in the midfield from time to time. Brings a bit of energy to the contest, a bit like McGlynn used to.

 

[Grand Uncle Horace]

I don’t mind Papley in the midfield from time to time. Brings a bit of energy to the contest, a bit like McGlynn used to.

I do. The comparison with McGlynn is unfortunate. Papley is a smart effective footballer worth his place in the team.

 

[TheMase]

I do. The comparison with McGlynn is unfortunate. Papley is a smart effective footballer worth his place in the team.

He is and I don’t question that. Best 22 no doubts about it. Can you explain why it is an unfortunate comparison? Both aggressive and had good goal sense and are of a similar size. Their output is fairly similar too (McGlynn probably slight ahead overall at this stage but I would expect Papley to become the better player over time). McGlynn at Sydney average more disposals, more tackles, more marks and only slightly less goals. Early days for Papley but as I said I would expect him to surpass that in time.

With Ronke, Menzel, Hayward and Papley as potential small to medium forwards, I personally flagged a while ago that at least one of them will need to spend some time in the midfield or they might find one of them out of the 22 for a midfielder.

 

[Grand Uncle Horace]

He is and I don’t question that. Best 22 no doubts about it. Can you explain why it is an unfortunate comparison? Both aggressive and had good goal sense and are of a similar size. Their output is fairly similar too (McGlynn probably slight ahead overall at this stage but I would expect Papley to become the better player over time). McGlynn at Sydney average more disposals, more tackles, more marks and only slightly less goals. Early days for Papley but as I said I would expect him to surpass that in time.

With Ronke, Menzel, Hayward and Papley as potential small to medium forwards, I personally flagged a while ago that at least one of them will need to spend some time in the midfield or they might find one of them out of the 22 for a midfielder.

I was not a McGlynn fan, though I appreciate many here were. Papley for me at least is already a considerable upgrade. He reads the game better, channels his aggression more appropriately and uses the ball very well.

 

[caesar88]

He is and I don’t question that. Best 22 no doubts about it. Can you explain why it is an unfortunate comparison? Both aggressive and had good goal sense and are of a similar size. Their output is fairly similar too (McGlynn probably slight ahead overall at this stage but I would expect Papley to become the better player over time). McGlynn at Sydney average more disposals, more tackles, more marks and only slightly less goals. Early days for Papley but as I said I would expect him to surpass that in time.

With Ronke, Menzel, Hayward and Papley as potential small to medium forwards, I personally flagged a while ago that at least one of them will need to spend some time in the midfield or they might find one of them out of the 22 for a midfielder.

Or they could all be in the team as, I dunno, a functioning forward line maybe? Crazy I know to think that six guys can all work together in the one forward line.

 

[Grand Uncle Horace]

Was thinking about how our midfield might stack up at bounces and what the rotations may look like.

The first bounce may look like
a. Kennedy - primary see ball get ball role
b. Parker - bull in china shop, also see ball get ball
c. Heeney - receiver, run and distributor

Rotations through a,b and c:
a. Mills
b.Dawson
c. Hewett

Others
Clarke, Jones, Papley could rotate through the c role

 

[TheMase]

Or they could all be in the team as, I dunno, a functioning forward line maybe? Crazy I know to think that six guys can all work together in the one forward line.

What about a functioning midfield? Everyone is telling me this has been our biggest issue....?

No resting mids in the forward line at all?
Mids have to go to the bench for a rest?

What if we have to play two rucks due to the new rules? Reid will be playing whether you like it or not...

We need a deeper midfield...

 

[caesar88]

What about a functioning midfield? Everyone is telling me this has been our biggest issue....?

No resting mids in the forward line at all?
Mids have to go to the bench for a rest?

What if we have to play two rucks due to the new rules? Reid will be playing whether you like it or not...

We need a deeper midfield...

I don’t think Papley will help with that. Additions like Mills, Clarke, Blakey, Rowbottom and increased midfield time for Jones will help, so we shouldn’t have to compromise our forward line to fix the midfield.

 

[TheMase]

I don’t think Papley will help with that. Additions like Mills, Clarke, Blakey, Rowbottom and increased midfield time for Jones will help, so we shouldn’t have to compromise our forward line to fix the midfield.

None of those guys can play forward predominantly and make a minor contribution to the midfield, perhaps aside from Blakey who won’t be playing midfield in the short term.

I hardly see how Papley running a few midfield minutes and Parker or Heeney resting forward for a change up is going to compromise our forward line.

Going to have to agree to disagree....

 

[HighReeve]

Smith Grundy Rampe
Lloyd Aliir Mills
Heeney Parker Jones
Florent Reid Franklin
Papley Menzel Hayward
Sinclair Kennedy Hewett

Cunningham Dawson Ronke McVeigh

Very tough exercise but thats what I've got for now, with around a dozen fighting for the bench spots.
Hopefully progresses into a quicker, more skillful team through the year.

 

[caesar88]

Smith Grundy Rampe
Lloyd Aliir Mills
Heeney Parker Jones
Florent Reid Franklin
Papley Menzel Hayward
Sinclair Kennedy Hewett

Cunningham Dawson Ronke McVeigh

Very tough exercise but thats what I've got for now, with around a dozen fighting for the bench spots.
Hopefully progresses into a quicker, more skillful team through the year.

I'm hoping the same. Ideally by the second half of the year, a Ling or a Stoddart would be in McVeigh's place, Melican would be in Grundy's place, and maybe even Naismith will have put pressure on Sinclair's spot. May just make us that tiny bit more dynamic

 

[HighReeve]

I'm hoping the same. Ideally by the second half of the year, a Ling or a Stoddart would be in McVeigh's place, Melican would be in Grundy's place, and maybe even Naismith will have put pressure on Sinclair's spot. May just make us that tiny bit more dynamic

yeah have the same, tho can't see Ling or Stoddart being apart of finals O'Riordan hopefully hcan have a big year, allowing us to conserve McVeigh for end of year. Same with Melican, hoping at least 15 games for him, allowing more flexibility. maybe try and get more inside fiftys out of McVeigh at times, replacing Jacks old guy role.
Sinclair I doubt I'll ever rate but given Reids history it doesn't seem unlikely that he'll line up at full forward sometimes tho if Reid won't be there for finals, I'd rather us look at going with a more mobile line up at this stage.

 

[Keyter]

Smith or McVeigh only one of them, not 2. Age/injury/form - one of them, will get one of them......imo

 

[caesar88]

yeah have the same, tho can't see Ling or Stoddart being apart of finals O'Riordan hopefully hcan have a big year, allowing us to conserve McVeigh for end of year. Same with Melican, hoping at least 15 games for him, allowing more flexibility. maybe try and get more inside fiftys out of McVeigh at times, replacing Jacks old guy role.
Sinclair I doubt I'll ever rate but given Reids history it doesn't seem unlikely that he'll line up at full forward sometimes tho if Reid won't be there for finals, I'd rather us look at going with a more mobile line up at this stage.

Interesting point about McVeigh, because he is really on borrowed time. His physicality is non-existent now, his foot-skills aren't the best in the team anymore, and he lacks pace. The only thing keeping him in the best 22, and still a handy contributor, is his level-headedness and composure in traffic, something can only really come from 300 games of footy. But if you take him away from that half-back line where that composure is so valuable, and try and push him up the ground for more inside 50s, will he just be pummelled into the ground like a tackling dummy? I think it's either hold that half-back general spot down or it's bust for McVeigh.

 

[caesar88]

I'm not concerned about our list, or our best 22, because I think it's worthy of a flag. I believe less-talented teams than ours have won flags in recent years, and so my belief in our boys is sky-high atm. How those players are used though is a whole different story and will be the number one thing I look out for in 2019. The back-line is self-explanatory. They have an organic bond that comes from some of our most experienced warriors and established leaders all being in that part of the team, and it's where I think we'll see the biggest personnel change this year (any of Melican, O'Riordan, Ling, Stoddart, Maibaum could find themselves in the side) so I'm expecting struggles here and there, but that's OK with me. The midfield, again, some new faces will be in there, but that's needed, so I'm aware it will take time. IMO our strongest area in personnel is our forward line, which makes it all the more frustrating that it was such a struggle for us in 2018.

It will be interesting seeing if Buddy, Reid and Sinclair play in the same forward line. I sure as hell hope not. I'm not even sure I want two of them in the same forward line, let alone three. On paper it looks like a good forward line, but IMO it kills our mobility and unpredictability going inside 50. Some on here like to attribute our dysfunctional attacking set-up to Reid's absence, and not having Sinclair be able to play forward in his stead, that having those two marking targets up forward, and instead having a bunch of young'n's, is what made it so hard for us to get clean entries. What made it hard for us to get clean entries was our total lack of adjustment in game plan to the personnel we had at our disposal.

We had Buddy, and the only other tall was the youngest lad in the competition. The rest were smalls (Hayward, Papley, Ronke) and a rotating mid (Jack, Parker, Heeney). But instead of lowering our eyes to find those targets, we just continued with the long bomb and kick-and-hope methodology. More than anything it's the trademark of all of our losses over the last five or so years, yet this year we did it more than ever, despite having less talls than we ever had in that period. Aaron ******* Sandilands wouldn't be able to get clean hands to it when it's coming in 30m in the sky with no sense of aim, direction or purpose. So we can bring back the all-important Reid and even get Sinclair back to his preferred position of forward/ruck. I predict the situation will only get worse. Because they won't have any more luck than the 2018 forwards did at getting clean, direct entries inside 50, and all we'll succeed at doing is basing the game around the talls even more. Until we actually learn to play in a way that's advantageous for our forwards, I think our forward set-up will continue to plague us regardless of how much improvement comes from defence and the midfield.

 

[connolly]

I'm not concerned about our list, or our best 22, because I think it's worthy of a flag. I believe less-talented teams than ours have won flags in recent years, and so my belief in our boys is sky-high atm. How those players are used though is a whole different story and will be the number one thing I look out for in 2019. The back-line is self-explanatory. They have an organic bond that comes from some of our most experienced warriors and established leaders all being in that part of the team, and it's where I think we'll see the biggest personnel change this year (any of Melican, O'Riordan, Ling, Stoddart, Maibaum could find themselves in the side) so I'm expecting struggles here and there, but that's OK with me. The midfield, again, some new faces will be in there, but that's needed, so I'm aware it will take time. IMO our strongest area in personnel is our forward line, which makes it all the more frustrating that it was such a struggle for us in 2018.

It will be interesting seeing if Buddy, Reid and Sinclair play in the same forward line. I sure as hell hope not. I'm not even sure I want two of them in the same forward line, let alone three. On paper it looks like a good forward line, but IMO it kills our mobility and unpredictability going inside 50. Some on here like to attribute our dysfunctional attacking set-up to Reid's absence, and not having Sinclair be able to play forward in his stead, that having those two marking targets up forward, and instead having a bunch of young'n's, is what made it so hard for us to get clean entries. What made it hard for us to get clean entries was our total lack of adjustment in game plan to the personnel we had at our disposal.

We had Buddy, and the only other tall was the youngest lad in the competition. The rest were smalls (Hayward, Papley, Ronke) and a rotating mid (Jack, Parker, Heeney). But instead of lowering our eyes to find those targets, we just continued with the long bomb and kick-and-hope methodology. More than anything it's the trademark of all of our losses over the last five or so years, yet this year we did it more than ever, despite having less talls than we ever had in that period. Aaron ******* Sandilands wouldn't be able to get clean hands to it when it's coming in 30m in the sky with no sense of aim, direction or purpose. So we can bring back the all-important Reid and even get Sinclair back to his preferred position of forward/ruck. I predict the situation will only get worse. Because they won't have any more luck than the 2018 forwards did at getting clean, direct entries inside 50, and all we'll succeed at doing is basing the game around the talls even more. Until we actually learn to play in a way that's advantageous for our forwards, I think our forward set-up will continue to plague us regardless of how much improvement comes from defence and the midfield.

If Buddy goes down with a chronic or long term injury, Sinclair would be a good option at centre half forward where he played for Port. He is stronger than McCartin, a better kick and a better mark. This would also open up the possibility of playing Cameron as a second ruck/forward. We don't know the effect of the rule change but possibly two rucks will be required. With Menzel in a forward pocket we could have real marking power on the forward line something we have lacked in recent years. Longmire has preferred a small tackling forward line with tackling pressure keeping the ball in the forward line for turnovers with midfielders drifting into the forward line and flying for marks in packs. Parker averages one screamer for about 10 attempts. Better to play Heeney as a genuine midfielder this year also. Nothing wrong with kicking long into a forward line that has big blokes who can actually take a mark in a pack.

 

[Tedeski]

The only thing keeping him in the best 22, and still a handy contributor, is his level-headedness and composure in traffic

Yep! Those two things would get him a gig at any club in the AFL for season 2019 & people want him gone because perhaps they are sick of the same bloke running around in the red & white for so long.
Whether you like it or not, he is & will be known as a club legend, being our p'ship captain but the guy is still in our best 5 players for the two most important attributes you have mentioned above.
As far as I'm concerned, it's up to one of the young players to come along & take his spot off him but until then, or when he has a major drop off in multiple consecutive games, Macca plays. It's quite a simple decision for the club to make as long as Macca performs to the club's satisfaction & thus far, they gave him another contract for this season. So as supporters, let's just give a club legend the chance to do his thing again whilst contracted.

 

[Wolftone]

This is where I can't follow your logic. IMO, if we come across a team that's better than us, for whatever reason, then we should find a way to win. That's how we got the win in the 2012 GF. That's how we got past most of the top 8 multiple times last year despite being in the middle of a rebuild and having injuries to many of our experienced key position players. We are known as the team who "find a way to win". I'm proud of that. If you want to see inexperienced, desperate and experimental coaching I can recommend a host of bottom dwelling teams who do it better than us. They have the occasional huge win that you seem to crave.

The game plan will evolve alongside the evolution of the team personnel. You must have the experience and skills required to execute any game plan. The type of recruiting that the Swans have chosen is probably the clearest indicator of where the game plan is going but, whether you like it or not, there will always be a plan B to close down the game and regroup if the other team is getting on top of us.

The trouble with our plan B is it no longer works. Look at Suns, Bombers and GWS games for evidence. If we gert sucked into playing that sort of game we will get flogged and often.

If your defensive game plan is organised on a flood then you are in trouble. The defensive game plan must be designed to get out of defense by a series of tactics that work. None of our defensive action when the panic button was pushed was at all about this. It was flood, flood, flood and with no dam pressure outlet to let the water out. To be a successful, by this I mean win premierships, team as different from a successful club, you need to design tactics around your personnel that allow them an outlet out of defense once the ball is in that area. Flooding was never a good way to do this. It might keep the scoring low but the scoring is still being done by the opposition.