AFL 2019 - AFL Round 17

[RooTed]

#AFL #bettingtips

R17 Leans

WCE -17.5- Coll o158.5
Syd -21.5- Carl u158.5/160.5
Haw-13.5- Fre u156.5/157.5
Ess-NM+2.5 u166.5/172.5
GC-Adel -32.5 u155.5/158.5
Geel -43.5- STK o158.5
Rich-GWS +13.5 o158.5
WB-Melb +11.5 u167.5/170.5
Port-BL No Leans 8.5 164.5/165.5

GL

 

[TheScream]

1U each on Freo +14.5 and H2H / Plus 2U on Neither team to score 90 @1.95
3U North @ 2.05

 

[NonPhixion]

Some early spots:
Hayward 2+ @3.30, 3+ @10 b365
Wingard 2+ @2.60 Sb
Pendles 20+, Gaff 25+, WHE ATGS, WC win @3.30 sb

added WHE 2+ @4.50... couldnt help myself, teased me for too long

 

[JuniorWatch]

Some early spots:
Hayward 2+ @3.30, 3+ @10 b365
Wingard 2+ @2.60 Sb
Pendles 20+, Gaff 25+, WHE ATGS, WC win @3.30 sb

Hayward tailed.
Some fun ones...
Milera 3+ $10
Ratugolea 3+ $10
M. Kennedy 3+ $21
b365

Some value...
B. Brown 3+ North win $4.5
T. Hawkins 4+ Cats win $3.75
Kennedy 3+ WC win $3.5
Lads

 

[mookieb]

Got WC at -8.5 but even now wondering how Coll are going to score with Shepherd a good match for De Goey and McGovern and Barrass likely to dominate Cox and Mihocek.

Also surprised NM aren't favs given they have won 5 of their last 6 by 20+ points. Bellchambers out so they'll get flogged in the ruck and both Heppell and Hurley under injury clouds.

 

[targett]

 

[BuddysBiggestFan]

Some early spots:
Hayward 2+ @3.30, 3+ @10 b365
Wingard 2+ @2.60 Sb
Pendles 20+, Gaff 25+, WHE ATGS, WC win @3.30 sb

You’d want odds of $10 on that Wingard bet. The guy has been rubbish this year.

 

[RooTed]

#AFL #bettingtips

R17 Fri Night

.5u #AFLEaglesPies TGS u158.5 $1.90 TAB

Expect it to be tight with Eagles win (might take 1-39). Was going over but can't see Pies kicking enough or Eagles winning by lots?

GL

 

[targett]

Got WC at -8.5 but even now wondering how Coll are going to score with Shepherd a good match for De Goey and McGovern and Barrass likely to dominate Cox and Mihocek.

Also surprised NM aren't favs given they have won 5 of their last 6 by 20+ points. Bellchambers out so they'll get flogged in the ruck and both Heppell and Hurley under injury clouds.

Yeah Id keep $10 at -8.5

 

[Ohh Ok]

Should be a safe bet;
4u WCE SU, Pendlebury 20+, Shuey 20+, Gaff 25+ $1.88 (SB)

 

[NonPhixion]

You’d want odds of $10 on that Wingard bet. The guy has been rubbish this year.

Ye hasn’t been in any form, but with the forward line on paper, he looms as a key target imo. Think b365 nailed the odds for this market, so see a little value

 

[mookieb]

Yeah Id keep $10 at -8.5

Line was -8.5 which reflects HGA only. Pies in terrible form, missing key players, match up poorly against WC and game plan starting to look ordinary. Line only going to move one way.

Hopefully everyone got on at -8.5 and -12.5 after the game with their $10 and we can all meet up and eat free pizza.

 

[targett]

Collingwood have been strong plays as an underdog for a long time. Since 2012 they are a quality 25-11 against the spread getting two-plus goals. Interstate getting more than two goals, the Magpies are a remarkable 11-1 against the spread.
West Coast have covered just three of nine at home off a win of 60-plus points while non-interstate favourites of more than two goals off conceding 50 or fewer cover at just 46%.

 

[Jugada]

Collingwood have been strong plays as an underdog for a long time. Since 2012 they are a quality 25-11 against the spread getting two-plus goals. Interstate getting more than two goals, the Magpies are a remarkable 11-1 against the spread.
West Coast have covered just three of nine at home off a win of 60-plus points while non-interstate favourites of more than two goals off conceding 50 or fewer cover at just 46%.

Confirmation bias is strong with these selective stats

 

[Atavistic]

Got WC at -8.5 but even now wondering how Coll are going to score with Shepherd a good match for De Goey and McGovern and Barrass likely to dominate Cox and Mihocek.

Also surprised NM aren't favs given they have won 5 of their last 6 by 20+ points. Bellchambers out so they'll get flogged in the ruck and both Heppell and Hurley under injury clouds.

Heppell wasn't even named to play.

 

[targett]

Confirmation bias is strong with these selective stats

Betfair Analyst
CURRENT RESULTS
Total Units Staked: 48
Total Units Returned: 54.60
ROI: 13.75%

 

[Jugada]

Betfair Analyst
CURRENT RESULTS
Total Units Staked: 48
Total Units Returned: 54.60
ROI: 13.75%

Have no idea what this is supposed to mean

 

[targett]

Have no idea what this is supposed to mean

Im sure you will figure it out

 

[Jugada]

Im sure you will figure it out

Doubtful

 

[JuniorWatch]

He's saying that his analysis (on AFL and racing i'm guessing) has returned him 13.75% profit of the money he has gambled.

As an aside: is it possible to get these statistics (as you've done from betfair targett ) from other agencies like Sportsbet?

 

[targett]

He's saying that his analysis (on AFL and racing i'm guessing) has returned him 13.75% profit of the money he has gambled.

As an aside: is it possible to get these statistics (as you've done from betfair targett ) from other agencies like Sportsbet?

Its betfairs Afl anylist . If you took all betfairs tips this year these are the results.Those stats BF quoted would only be a small part of the selection process.

 

[iluvparis]

He's saying that his analysis (on AFL and racing i'm guessing) has returned him 13.75% profit of the money he has gambled.

As an aside: is it possible to get these statistics (as you've done from betfair targett ) from other agencies like Sportsbet?

Probs just the winning side of losing hedges

 

[Jugada]

He's saying that his analysis (on AFL and racing i'm guessing) has returned him 13.75% profit of the money he has gambled.

As an aside: is it possible to get these statistics (as you've done from betfair targett ) from other agencies like Sportsbet?

The overall results don't take away from the fact those stats are still extremely shoehorned

 

[JuniorWatch]

The overall results don't take away from the fact those stats are still extremely shoehorned

That would depend on whether the analyst is weighing up the same type of data equally from week to week wouldn't it?
But i see what you're saying. The stats he's mentioned are very specific to be given heavy consideration.

 

[tombomb]

Collingwood have been strong plays as an underdog for a long time. Since 2012 they are a quality 25-11 against the spread getting two-plus goals. Interstate getting more than two goals, the Magpies are a remarkable 11-1 against the spread.
West Coast have covered just three of nine at home off a win of 60-plus points while non-interstate favourites of more than two goals off conceding 50 or fewer cover at just 46%.

I just have an image of Lisa outlining her NFL selections to Homer.