List Mgmt. List within a list 2.0 (players 25 and under)

[HARKER]

This is how I see it and the gaps have to be filled, either from inside or outside

HBF: Said it a few times but from what we have, I'd go Deluca.
HFF: Let's say Martin...just because.
FP: Ideally Papley.

I know I haven't included a few players but I wouldn't bank on all of them.
Do though see at least BSilvagni, Gibbons and Cottrell having a say in things and Schumacher a little further behind, for opportunity as much as anything.

 

[ferrisb]

Everything can be expressed as a an option or a sum of options - according to Black and Scholes etc ..

mature recruit has characteristics of lower risk to expected return V developing player who has more time and greater volatility realted to any demonstrated level of expected return

More successful sides (hawthorn/geelong) have thrown more dollars and high draft picks on developed players in order to benefit from (relatively) lower risk for a given level of expected performance AND (at the same time) invested in less developed players whose currency was (relatively) lower ( low draft picks ) - by providing development time....geelong are excellent at cutting players who they dont rate - despite evidence that players have ability....

The developed player(s) strategy or top up strategy - relies on a core of existing players, and ability to pay what is required and the ability to attract what is required.

Richmond and Bulldogs are (to me) more interesting....

Doggies ( for their ability to stock pick/find under developed players and develop them quickly) and Richmond - who are 'finding' players by looking outside the box - how/why/ did so many Clubs miss Sydney Stack? who is this new bloke ex prisoner they are bringing in? Richmond have been very creative...see the gun Sudanese ( forget his name) kid that is killing it after only 8 games...

there isn't a player at Richmond who is allowed to miss tackles consistently or not run each way or be below par in basic skill execution and still get a gig in AFL....they are at this stage because they have built genuine depth on their list and competition for places...hasn't happened overnight either.

Wouldn't mind some call options on some of our players. Lots of time value left in them too!

Your post is something that I have thought about a lot.

Do you pay 2 x 1sts for a top line player or keep the firsts and try to draft your own? You may end up with 1 as good as the star. Or none. Or two.

Do you draft a speculative ruckman with pick 50? Or do you not waste your time and effort and instead wait for someone else to take the risk and then pick up a proven performer with pick 20?

And even if you could find the perfect trade-offs, it's not that simple as there's secondary impacts.

Does recruiting another kid make you too heavy in that age bracket? Does a mature recruit lead to pushing out an existing best 22 player? Is overpaying for a key player justified where it improves the output of other players too?

I think this is mostly 'science' but there's still a bit of an 'art' to it too.

 

[JuddgementDay]

So, I ran a thread on this at the start of 2018 and thought it was time to revisit with a discussion of where our 'yoof' is at.

How many young ones do we have?
What positions do we have covered? Or not?
What is the quality of what we have?
What are we missing in our list demographic? Who is at risk of being squeezed out?

Here is how I see our current players 25yo and under (Docherty and younger FYI).

View attachment 721501

Ideally this thread is used more as a high level discussion of the questions I asked above. But if you want to argue that Setterfield is better than Fisher for example or Stocker should be red - not yellow - then don't let me stop you.

EDIT: Made some minor tweaks to classifications

Is there a missing Silvagni?

 

[ferrisb]

Is there a missing Silvagni?

BSOS!!!!

My bad.

Thank you for pointing that out. Even bigger thank you as now my Other list is symmetrical

 

[ferrisb]

The best part about this list is that the core positions are stacked with superstar/future superstar and high level best 22 players.

Key position players look sorted long term, and we are reasonably stocked with good midfield prospects making up the core of our team.

This bodes well for us in that it is easier and far less expensive to trade for a best 22 small forward or defender than it is to acquire a good key forward entering their prime. It is also less detrimental to the team playing stop gap half forwards than it is in the midfield or key positions.

I look at this list of young talent and am extremely encouraged by our future.

It's almost as if SOS deliberately recruited KPPs.

THEN a bunch of midfielders.

And THEN he is looking to finish off with a few finishing touches.

Imagine if he had planned it that way

 

[JustaBattler]

Wouldn't mind some call options on some of our players. Lots of time value left in them too!

Your post is something that I have thought about a lot.

Do you pay 2 x 1sts for a top line player or keep the firsts and try to draft your own? You may end up with 1 as good as the star. Or none. Or two.

Do you draft a speculative ruckman with pick 50? Or do you not waste your time and effort and instead wait for someone else to take the risk and then pick up a proven performer with pick 20?

And even if you could find the perfect trade-offs, it's not that simple as there's secondary impacts.

Does recruiting another kid make you too heavy in that age bracket? Does a mature recruit lead to pushing out an existing best 22 player? Is overpaying for a key player justified where it improves the output of other players too?

I think this is mostly 'science' but there's still a bit of an 'art' to it too.

Yep you are right to have all those good questions - answers changing from team to team and time to time based on where each is at...

List management/ portfolio management isn't an equilibrium model type situation - which is why (some) portfolio managers get paid the big bucks...

 

[FitzroyBlueBagger]

Hey great thread Ferrish
I think our list has been built beautifully with only a few types missing atm
There's a few on your best under25 team that i think will be moved on over the next 2years
Lang Garlett Polson Kerr Lebois Goddard imo aren't quite up to it
Schumaker and O'Dwyer need more time to access, Cottrell i like already think he'll be up to it Owies looks good..
List needs a few areas filled that it is noticeably lacking
1. At least two quality small/medium forwards-quick and dangerous
2. At least two quality small/medium defenders-quick & attacking/rebounding
3. At least one quality young ruckman 22-24yrs ready to cover Kruezer in case he's injured
4. A 200cm plus development key defender to play on the monster forwards of the comp down the track...

 

[Jabba73]

Notes

• Ages are not as of today; pretty sure was at round 1, 2019
• Have tried to pick players in their preferred positions, but doesn't always work perfectly
• Unproven is defined as unproven at AFL level
• There's a little bit of projection going on; eg McKay is not a superstar (but projects to be). Stocker should be red under my definition, but he's obviously rated much higher
• Going backwards: I think Williamson (green to yellow) and Garlett (yellow to red) are the main ones to go backwards. Williamson would be green if not for injuries
• Gibbons: I know he has been selected every week this year, so you could call him best 22. But he's arguably not as safe long-term as Fisher, Setters, O'Brien etc

Stocker will be a gun player. Not too many dual sided skilled players who love the rough stuff.

Bit like LOB, when the team learns where they are capable of putting a pass, the leads will get better and more creative.

It is a matter of time, he will be elite.

 

[Magruder]

Everything can be expressed as a an option or a sum of options - according to Black and Scholes etc ..

mature recruit has characteristics of lower risk to expected return V developing player who has more time and greater volatility realted to any demonstrated level of expected return

More successful sides (hawthorn/geelong) have thrown more dollars and high draft picks on developed players in order to benefit from (relatively) lower risk for a given level of expected performance AND (at the same time) invested in less developed players whose currency was (relatively) lower ( low draft picks ) - by providing development time....geelong are excellent at cutting players who they dont rate - despite evidence that players have ability....

The developed player(s) strategy or top up strategy - relies on a core of existing players, and ability to pay what is required and the ability to attract what is required.

Richmond and Bulldogs are (to me) more interesting....

Doggies ( for their ability to stock pick/find under developed players and develop them quickly) and Richmond - who are 'finding' players by looking outside the box - how/why/ did so many Clubs miss Sydney Stack? who is this new bloke ex prisoner they are bringing in? Richmond have been very creative...see the gun Sudanese ( forget his name) kid that is killing it after only 8 games...

there isn't a player at Richmond who is allowed to miss tackles consistently or not run each way or be below par in basic skill execution and still get a gig in AFL....they are at this stage because they have built genuine depth on their list and competition for places...hasn't happened overnight either.

The last paragraph is why I reckon Dow should be called “developing”.

 

[Duigan Alley34]

It's almost as if SOS deliberately recruited KPPs.

THEN a bunch of midfielders.

And THEN he is looking to finish off with a few finishing touches.

Imagine if he had planned it that way

Yep, medium term pain for long term gain.
The foundation is set now, it should be so much easier to rebuild and replenish on the run and be a long term force.

 

[Blue and Blue]

So, I ran a thread on this at the start of 2018 and thought it was time to revisit with a discussion of where our 'yoof' is at.

How many young ones do we have?
What positions do we have covered? Or not?
What is the quality of what we have?
What are we missing in our list demographic? Who is at risk of being squeezed out?

Here is how I see our current players 25yo and under (Docherty and younger FYI).

View attachment 721558

Ideally this thread is used more as a high level discussion of the questions I asked above. But if you want to argue that Setterfield is better than Fisher for example or Stocker should be red - not yellow - then don't let me stop you.

EDIT: Made some minor tweaks to classifications

I nominate this for most colourful POTY.
Nice use of complementary and analgous colour..........

 

[therubbernub]

And my left <private body part> for a small defender....

dont flatter yourself

 

[thylacine60]

stupid thread.......

 

[Yubby]

Plow feels like he's been around forever and he's only 24!!

Amazing how many of them are currently in our 22 also.

Personally I think you pay what you need for specific role players which doesn't necessarily mean they have to be expensive. Then if a premium is available you pay the price to upgrade to the premium who has the better output, eg a coniglio.

My worry is that we really need another 1 or 2 gun midfielders for the future outside of Walsh and Cripps and whether our talent can reach the height we want. Will a Dow or SPS or Fish rise to the level of the best sides 3rd & 4th best midfielder... eg 1 of Beams, pendles treloar sidebottom... or a Kelly, coniglio, whitfield, Taranto, hopper etc.

 

[Magruder]

Plow feels like he's been around forever and he's only 24!!

Amazing how many of them are currently in our 22 also.

Personally I think you pay what you need for specific role players which doesn't necessarily mean they have to be expensive. Then if a premium is available you pay the price to upgrade to the premium who has the better output, eg a coniglio.

My worry is that we really need another 1 or 2 gun midfielders for the future outside of Walsh and Cripps and whether our talent can reach the height we want. Will a Dow or SPS or Fish rise to the level of the best sides 3rd & 4th best midfielder... eg 1 of Beams, pendles treloar sidebottom... or a Kelly, coniglio, whitfield, Taranto, hopper etc.

Setters, LOB, Dow in that order will.

Cripps, Walsh, Setterfield, O’brien, Dow, Fisher, SPS, Silvagni

Actually projects well, but yea 1 more bona fide A grade mid required.

 

[BrisbaneCFC]

Gibbons has gotten better as the season has gone on. Fantastic pick up for someone who cost us nothing

If only he spent his time in midfield instead of up forward.

 

[GapInIkonPark]

As I see it before recruits ...

FB. Plowman. Weitering. ***
HB. Marchbank. ***. Docherty.
C. O’Brien. SPS. Williamson.
HF. Fisher. Charlie. Cuningham.
FF. Gibbons. McKay. McGovern.

R. ***. Cripps. Walsh.

I. Setterfield. Dow. JSOS. ***.

E. Kennedy. TDK. Macreadie. Stocker.

Not proven ... Schumacher. BSOS. Finbar. Lang.
Not sold ... Polson. Kerr. Garlett.

 

[Carlton1234]

As I see it before recruits ...

FB. Plowman. Weitering. ***
HB. Marchbank. ***. Docherty.
C. O’Brien. SPS. Williamson.
HF. Fisher. Charlie. Cuningham.
FF. Gibbons. McKay. McGovern.

R. ***. Cripps. Walsh.

I. Setterfield. Dow. JSOS. ***.

E. Kennedy. TDK. Macreadie. Stocker.

Not proven ... Schumacher. BSOS. Finbar. Lang.
Not sold ... Polson. Kerr. Garlett.

RBP: Nic Newman
CHB: Hopefully MacReadie or Goddard can start to take over this spot. But for now its Jones's spot.
Ruck: At the Moment its Kreuzer, but will be TDK in another year or two's time.
4th Insterchange: Personally I'd give the last spot to One of Kennedy, Williamson or Stocker

 

[LemmingMaster]

Rucks are something you should steal from other clubs if you can.

 

[HARKER]

It's almost as if SOS deliberately recruited KPPs.

THEN a bunch of midfielders.

And THEN he is looking to finish off with a few finishing touches.

Imagine if he had planned it that way

Plenty wouldn't have gone along with that principle, as some see it as a 'Always draft the best player' situation.
Whilst there is some truth in that, discounting needs can come back to bite.

SOS clearly targeted talls and manufactured a scenario where three can be taken within the top 12.
Those three (Weitering, CCurnow and McKay) are now KPP's in our best team. Could have we done better? Did SOS just luck it in? I don't think so.


EDIT: More than any single periphery player that has to make it for us, is Macreadie.
I'm starting to worry that we may not see the best of him and his game just hasn't developed yet, but what we saw in Macreadie early on, is what we'll need in the not too distant future.

 

[ferrisb]

stupid thread.......

You are a giant D..........word thread proponent....

 

[Soapy V]

Manton

 

[Duigan Alley34]

Rucks are something you should steal from other clubs if you can.

I don't think there's anything wrong to develop your own if you like a prospect, as we're doing with TDK. But the timing and situation does have to be monitored. If we had picked up TDK 2 years before we did he would probably be putting his hand up for a trade this offseason and we would be getting peanuts on our investment because of limited exposed form.

Thankfully TDK's readiness is probably going to coincide with the ending stages of Kreuzer's career so will give him a good chance to be our lead ruck in the future.

 

[CJMB]

As I see it before recruits ...

FB. Plowman. Weitering. ***
HB. Marchbank. ***. Docherty.
C. O’Brien. SPS. Williamson.
HF. Fisher. Charlie. Cuningham.
FF. Gibbons. McKay. McGovern.

R. ***. Cripps. Walsh.

I. Setterfield. Dow. JSOS. ***.

E. Kennedy. TDK. Macreadie. Stocker.

Not proven ... Schumacher. BSOS. Finbar. Lang.
Not sold ... Polson. Kerr. Garlett.

FB. Plowman. Weitering. Docherty
HB. Stocker Marchbank. Williamson.
C. O’Brien. Setterfield. SPS.
HF. Fisher. Charlie. Cuningham.
FF. Gibbons. McKay. McGovern.

R. TDK Cripps. Walsh.

I. Dow. JSOS. Kennedy Macreadie/Lang


Then there's the possibility (ignore the likelihood of each individual case for now) that we add some more names to the List Within A List, Part II: Lister Harderer... Cogs (same draft as Doc), The Smear, DCameron, Martin, Butler, etc.

 

[Soapy V]

As I see it before recruits ...

FB. Plowman. Weitering. ***
HB. Marchbank. ***. Docherty.
C. O’Brien. SPS. Williamson.
HF. Fisher. Charlie. Cuningham.
FF. Gibbons. McKay. McGovern.

R. ***. Cripps. Walsh.

I. Setterfield. Dow. JSOS. ***.

E. Kennedy. TDK. Macreadie. Stocker.

Not proven ... Schumacher. BSOS. Finbar. Lang.
Not sold ... Polson. Kerr. Garlett.

My team

B: Docherty Weitering Plowman
HB: SPS Macreadie Williamson
C: Cuningham Cripps O'Brien
HF: Stocker McKay Dow
F: McGovern Charlie Gibbons
Foll: TDK Setterfield Walsh
Int: Marchbank Kennedy Fisher Jack
Plus: Schumacher Newman Goddard DeLuca BSOS Cottrell Owies

What I see is great talent. We need to now keep adding quality and depth and competitions for spots
This also doesn't include Kruezer Murphy Curnow Jones Casboult who could keep playing for several years yet