Analysis “Hawthorn are middle of the road at best” discussion

[Dr.J]

Warning - Massive generalization follows.

Hawthorn destroyed both Westcoast and GWS with massive pressure on the ball carrier.
It requires 4 quarter commitment both mental and physical.
Geelong worried Richmond for a half applying a similar form of pressure but were unable to maintain it for four quarters.
GWS applied the same game plan against the Pies and held on despite running out of steam in the last quarter.

Whist that style can bring success against all but the very best, it's bloody hard to maintain.
So in summary when we play that way we can beat anyone but when the application wanes we're bog average.
(Noting that that physical pressure mode is virtually impossible to maintain for an entire game let alone an entire season).

We need to improve both our list and our skill levels to make up for the times when we're not at max grunt.
In the meantime our coach overcomes many of our deficiencies by clever use of tactics and multiple game plans.

 

[dixyland]

How many time does it need to be pointed out that our finishing position was dictated to by our poor start to the season when we had multiple players injured mid-game.

Continually stating that we finished 9th and therefore we are at best a middling team with no context to how our season started and what team we ended up being is absurd.

I’ll post more data later, but here’s how the squiggle saw all clubs at the end of the season. Look at where the “middle of the road at best” Hawks are rated.

View attachment 751332

Stop thinking that people don't understand the premise of the question. You have just ranted on about the same rubbish. People understand but don't agree with your narrative. Middle of the road teams beat those above, around and below and lose to the same. Stop being offended by reasonable people saying reasonable things.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Stop thinking that people don't understand the premise of the question. You have just ranted on about the same rubbish. People understand but don't agree with your narrative. Middle of the road teams beat those above, around and below and lose to the same. Stop being offended by reasonable people saying reasonable things.

Right, and that’s why they continually miss the context of the discussion, eh?

 

[MasterSamurai]

How many other middle of the road teams beat even half as many finalists this year ?

Were Geelong the best team and Brisbane 2nd best team?

Do you feel like you backed yourself in to a corner and rather than admitting it have doubled down ?

Is this a joke?

 

[Billyc]

This thread is so petty.

I regret that I posted in it, though admittedly my posts were on a different thread discussing trades and list improvement, before being plonked here with the self-serving title and subjected to 7 pages of inane pedantry.

In short everyone here pretty much agrees that Hawthorn played some good footy in the back half of 2019 and some poor and inconsistent footy during the season. We finished 9th, haven’t won a final in 4 years and need to improve the list to finish higher and win finals.

There almost seems to be no meaningful disagreement save for the pedantic interpretation of a couple of words. It is mind-numbing pettiness.

 

[MasterSamurai]

How many time does it need to be pointed out that our finishing position was dictated to by our poor start to the season when we had multiple players injured mid-game.

Continually stating that we finished 9th and therefore we are at best a middling team with no context to how our season started and what team we ended up being is absurd.

I’ll post more data later, but here’s how the squiggle saw all clubs at the end of the season. Look at where the “middle of the road at best” Hawks are rated.

View attachment 751332

Not too dissimilar to the finish in 2017 . We’re two years in and we’ve slightly improved since.

 

[Davo23]

This thread is so petty.

I regret that I posted in it, though admittedly my posts were on a different thread discussing trades and list improvement, before being plonked here with the self-serving title and subjected to 7 pages of inane pedantry.

In short everyone here pretty much agrees that Hawthorn played some good footy in the back half of 2019 and some poor and inconsistent footy during the season. We finished 9th, haven’t won a final in 4 years and need to improve the list to finish higher and win finals.

There almost seems to be no meaningful disagreement save for the pedantic interpretation of a couple of words. It is mind-numbing pettiness.

And you’ve missed the point completely!

.

 

[MasterSamurai]

How do you continue to miss the point here?

At best, middle of the road. At best.

At best we beat 3 of the preliminary finalists.

At best we beat 1 of the 2 grand finalists this year by 89 points with a combined percentage of 232.84.

At best we were the difficult side to score against and to move the ball against offensively, as rated by both Champion Data and Squiggle.

View attachment 751327

View attachment 751326

At worst we were a middle of the road side, at best we were very much competitive - it was more the point that we finished in a middle of the road position for a few other reasons.

I’m not missing the point mate.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

This thread is so petty.

I regret that I posted in it, though admittedly my posts were on a different thread discussing trades and list improvement, before being plonked here with the self-serving title and subjected to 7 pages of inane pedantry.

In short everyone here pretty much agrees that Hawthorn played some good footy in the back half of 2019 and some poor and inconsistent footy during the season. We finished 9th, haven’t won a final in 4 years and need to improve the list to finish higher and win finals.

There almost seems to be no meaningful disagreement save for the pedantic interpretation of a couple of words. It is mind-numbing pettiness.

Ironic post is ironic.

 

[Endorphin Machine]

Bulldogs
Swans
Melb
*
St Kilda
These are teams we should not have lost to.
Also, bloody Brisbane continued their wood on us.

However, I’m pretty optimistic for next year given TOM back, natural improvement in our younger players, draft, and our superb coach and support staff.
We’re still building!

 

[Zack]

Warning - Massive generalization follows.

Hawthorn destroyed both Westcoast and GWS with massive pressure on the ball carrier.

We do have a weird record of beating the eventual premiers each year with the exception of Richmond lately.

 

[Harper_Hawk]

It feels as though this thread is a reflection of both our frustration of where we are and our expectation of where we should be. The reality is we were very successful over the last decade. We are now dealing with the fallout of that and how do we rebuild as a club psychologically to take us back to the top again. It may take longer than we think... and maybe another 5 or even 10 years till we win another flag. They are hard to win...Clarkson has spoilt us and given us unrivalled expectation.

 

[Brant]

Bulldogs
Swans
Melb
*
St Kilda
These are teams we should not have lost to.
Also, bloody Brisbane continued their wood on us.

However, I’m pretty optimistic for next year given TOM back, natural improvement in our younger players, draft, and our superb coach and support staff.
We’re still building!

Eagles (1st game) is the one we should have won. Kicked ourselves out of it. 2nd game vs Brissie similar.

 

[flinchfree]

Just catching on to one of the points being made to justify the call of our current state first team...
To the point, we lose to crappy teams, ergo we can only be marginally better than those same teams.

Loss Footscray
Loss Richmond

Common denominator? Well no, you'd be wong, because these teams finished out of the finals and below us...
In 1983. When we won the flag.

In 89' we lost to a pretty terrible Brisbane late in the year, a year in which we won 19 games...

I don't really get the 'but we should beat X if were any good' argument.
Yes it can feel galling to lose to a lower ladder team, but each week is both a game in isolation where professional players from both teams have a chance to be at their best, or not, and then also a game that is part of a progression or history that includes form, injuries, changes to team balance, outside influences (eg Roughy's crazy difficult last 3 years, and he wouldn't be the only one of the team to have personal travails), etc.

If it's me, what I want to know is how do we look at our best, and how does that translate against the bigger performing teams. If the first 22 can run out and play some glorious, tough, winning football, and the ceiling is plenty high enough to be competitive when everyone wants it most, then consistency and belief and luck and maturation is what I'm looking for to know we have a chance at winning it all.

If the teams best is juuuuust ok, rarely filled with highs, is always just grinding, is piloted by a coach who's out of his depth, has players showing dissension, is ageing and without much behind it, has people wanting to leave - not for more opportunity, but to get away from a stinking ship, is unable to develop young players, makes draft decisions that regulary hurt (all teams miss here and there), has management that is floundering and uncertain, and repeats all this and more over multiple seasons....THEN I know it's time to get worried.

I'd argue we do most of the above really well, since Clarko took over.
The seamless transition that everyone seems to want from one winning string to another cannot happen in this Draft equalization time and space, when we have to continually take the lowest graded kids and turn them into winners on the field no matter what.
We are ******* amazing at that, but it gets short shrift here on the board.

We are not middle of the road, we had a middle of the road season. There's a giant difference.
We're building, and developing, and contrary to what some here have said, I reckon we have enough high level young talent in the pipe to continue building and adding to, but they're seasoning right now.
Don't reckon we are plateauing and heading for tough times of stagnation, reckon we're dangerous, very bloody dangerous.

Look forward to seeing who's right in the next 24 months.

 

[HODGEYROAD]

It's funny when people discuss improvement from younger players which can well happen, but lots of people act like other clubs younger players won't get better also. Facts are we may play finals next year but unless we improve the list greatly we won't be going far in September as has been the case in the last 4 seasons.

 

[KermitJagger]

It's funny when people discuss improvement from younger players which can well happen, but lots of people act like other clubs younger players won't get better also. Facts are we may play finals next year but unless we improve the list greatly we won't be going far in September as has been the case in the last 4 seasons.

It's not just improvement from players. Consider our list and the rapid rate of turnover we've had.

Since 2016, the following bolded players in our best 22 from the last game this year are new to the system (i.e. only started playing seniors properly from 2016 onwards)

FB: Shaun Burgoyne; James Frawley; James Sicily
HB: Blake Hardwick; Ben Stratton; Daniel Howe
C: Ricky Henderson; Jaeger O'Meara; Tom Scully
HF: Paul Puopolo; Tim O'Brien; Isaac Smith
FF: Luke Breust; Jack Gunston; Ben McEvoy
FOL: Jonathon Ceglar; Liam Shiels; James Worpel
I/C: Conor Nash; Chad Wingard; Jack Scrimshaw; Oliver Hanrahan

13 out of 22 players out there, not including Tom who would make it 14.

Other top line teams like Geelong, Richmond and West Coast have an established core of players that have been there for years. We've essentially had to replace that in our own team which means that we can dip a bit as we establish that familiarity and teamwork quotient. Particularly in our midfield, which is all newer faces save for Shiels.

There's not much separating us and the best teams besides that.

 

[flinchfree]

It's funny when people discuss improvement from younger players which can well happen, but lots of people act like other clubs younger players won't get better also. Facts are we may play finals next year but unless we improve the list greatly we won't be going far in September as has been the case in the last 4 seasons.

Agree, they will have young players who will get better....but will they end up being better as a team?
That's when your coaches, managers, leaders have most affect.
Kennedy.
Parkin.
Jeans.
..............Clarko.
There's a pattern I see, and it's not just that those above coaches/legends had good players.
Every team has good players.

The above men turned those many players from all walks into something more than young players who got better, through development, or how they were played, or when they were played, or how their buttons needed to be pressed, or what game plan would make a difference, or or or...if I had all the answers I'd be coaching and making history and alot of money.

If you took our players and put them in St Kilda colors, would you bank on them getting not just better but finding a way?
What about taking St Kilda's list and having Clarko coach them...think they might turn into something more than the sum of their parts?

Alot of opp supporters didn't think our team was that good over the 4 recent premierships.
What did you think?
Yes good players, but also coached up to become immortals of the Club through their acts, the fullest expression of their talents and their will.

I like these guys as a base to go again.
Hardwick/Scrimshaw/Sicily/Impey/Jiath
Jaeger/Titch/Wingard/Worpel/Finn (;-)
Breust/ML/TOB/Nash/Walker/Gunno
Big Boy/Ceglar

It's a very good core of likely talent with loads of upwards potential, how many other clubs do you like their core better? More than 3-4?
From there it's about coaching, taking away what the opposition does well and highlighting your strengths.
Think we've won a number of premierships in our history when another team was considered to have more talent, then again I think constitutional make up is talent and NONE have ever had the constitution of the Hawthorn Football Club.

 

[Pessimistic]

On the title.

I must be blind to the ‘....so we need to fire sale some of our best players’ subtitle. Theres plenty of discussions already on that subject.

I do note that the top teams which are therefore not middle of the road havent fire saled good players recently.

And they all have a sprinkling of over 30 players too

 

[dixyland]

Right, and that’s why they continually miss the context of the discussion, eh?

I think it's more of a you thing. Everyone else is seeing nuance and you are blindly repeating the same tripe.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

I think it's more of a you thing. Everyone else is seeing nuance and you are blindly repeating the same tripe.

And you’ve added nothing to this thread at all apart from cheap shots, so either give it a rest or get in the bin.

 

[KermitJagger]

I think it's more of a you thing. Everyone else is seeing nuance and you are blindly repeating the same tripe.

Because it's a point worth discussing. "At best" changes the context of the statement completely.

Were Hawthorn a middle of the road side this year? Yes, we were. We finished 9th.

Were we middle of the road at best? No, we weren't. We had a winning record against Top 8 sides, and a cumulative percentage of over 200 against one of the grand finalists.

The fact that anyone argues against that means you're missing the nuance.

 

[SuperSic]

At best we were a top 4 side. However, at worst we were a bottom 4 side. Hence we finished 9th.

I fully expect the worst performances to improve next season with some handy additions, more maturity and players gelling more. Bringing the bottom performances up will have us better than middle of the road in 2020.

 

[Adelaide Hawk]

Other top line teams like Geelong, Richmond and West Coast have an established core of players that have been there for years. We've essentially had to replace that in our own team which means that we can dip a bit as we establish that familiarity and teamwork quotient. Particularly in our midfield, which is all newer faces save for Shiels.

There's not much separating us and the best teams besides that.

What DOES separate us from those teams is our neurotic compulsion to lose to teams like St.Kilda, Melbourne, North Melbourne, Essendon, Sydney and the Bulldogs, not to mention scraping in for a 5 point win over Carlton. You cannot lose to all those teams and think you're up with the leaders.

 

[dixyland]

Because it's a point worth discussing. "At best" changes the context of the statement completely.

Were Hawthorn a middle of the road side this year? Yes, we were. We finished 9th.

Were we middle of the road at best? No, we weren't. We had a winning record against Top 8 sides, and a cumulative percentage of over 200 against one of the grand finalists.

The fact that anyone argues against that means you're missing the nuance.

At their best is a one game thing. At their best they beat some good teams, and Geelong too. You are right about that. But that is a small sample size.

Long term trends show at best. A 22 game sample proves they were middle of the road.

 

[Slick]

At their best is a one game thing. At their best they beat some good teams, and Geelong too. You are right about that. But that is a small sample size.

Long term trends show at best. A 22 game sample proves they were middle of the road.

The bolded is correct. The 22 game sample shows a club who's results were middle of the road. But it doesn't necessarily show a club who is middle of the road at best. I'm not sure how people keep glossing over these words in the context of the conversation. They are the most important words in the whole sentence when having this debate.

It's also a futile debate btw