Mega Thread Coronavirus & the AFL - Stage 4 Restrictions in Place in Vic - Part 3

[Gralin]

This is part Three.

Part One can be found here -

Mega Thread - Coronavirus & the AFL - season postponed. (Thread part 1 - cont in part 2, link in thread)

This is part 1 of this thread. Continued in Part 2: https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/coronavirus-the-afl-season-postponed-part-2.1237935/

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Part Two can be found here -

Mega Thread - Coronavirus & the AFL - season postponed. Part 2 * CONTINUED ABUSE WILL NOT BE TOLERATED *

https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/pages/covid-stats-australia/

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Part 4 can be found here:

Mega Thread - Coronavirus & the AFL - Stage 4 Restrictions in Place in Vic - Part 4

This is part Four. Part One can be found here - https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/coronavirus-the-afl-season-postponed.1236651/unread Part Two can be found here -...

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Australian stats page:

Australian Coronavirus Stats

Latest COVID-19 stats from Australia.

www.bigfooty.com

 

[Run n Spread]

"herd immunity" has failed miserably elsewhere.

Where? While New York and Sweden had massive spikes in ICUs and deaths they have been on the decline. In essence they took a hit in one go.

What we are doing is following a pattern. Unless we can fully eradicate then we are just delaying the inevitable. The Chief Health officer just said the virus hasn't mutated. So we are just drip feeding and prolonging the pain.

If enough people can build herd immunity they can act as a barrier to the elderly and vulnerable. Instead by locking everyone under the one bubble together the second restrictions are lifted it takes off like a bushfire.

Where Sweden and NYC stuffed it was by not shutting nursing homes and putting Covid patients in them.

Now while no one wants permanent lung damage I would actually be open to mixing risk getting the virus quarantine and immunity is created. (Like an 80s Chicken pox Party on steroids).

The only other way is to cleanse it totally. I think a) It is too contagious and you would need Stage 100 to do it. Like panic buy and lock down. Face it Stage 3 is non nonsensical. You go to work on PT, mix with 100s but than can't see anyone else? How is that when you critically think actually doing anything?

The Virus is here for ever. A vaccine may not come. Virus eradication can take 5 years. Even keeping our borders shut that long is nigh on impossible given we are dependent on the rest of the world to survive as a 25 million population.

Sure you can fine the bejeebus out of people (some won't care/can afford it) or jail them then you just spread it through the jails and the workers who are needed there.

I'm curious Bomberboyokay what would your strategy be? Not in terms of political management or Law and Order but how to manage this thing? Because imo lockdowns won't work long term. We will go flat surge lock down for years.

 

[Kangapirate]

Half assing is about right to describe the situation down here right now, today everyone is out and about like nothing is happening.

 

[SaintsSeptember]

Stop over thinking it dude seriously, everyone knows how sickness works and how it can be transferred, it always been like that and it will always be like that, you can't avoid people for the rest of your life unless you barricade yourself inside your home but what type of life would that be, does seem any point does it.

Yeah well just stay on your side of the Yarra.

Not over thinking it, but you are under thinking it.
Not planning on avoiding anyone . But i can go a few weeks without snuggling strangers.
I can listen to random idiots on the net, or listen to the government.
There are plenty of other states , where its not so shitty.

 

[Run n Spread]

The Swedish approach - which I assume everyone argues for as the balanced 'herd immunity' approach - puts it 5th in terms of death poll per capita, and is still far away from herd immunity. And their economy is as much in the toilet as their neighbours anyway.

They currently have 74,000 cases. Assuming (very very optimistically) that the true number of cases is 10x that (which not even Les thinks is accurate), that's still only about 7% of the population infected, or way way below the 60% threshold for herd immunity to start working.

The correct approach is lockdown, and if you take the chance, go for elimination. A place like New Zealand is now business as usual as a result of their serious approach to purging COVID from it's shores.

And if elimination doesn't work than what? Eventually 75% of people get it anyway (according to the link) https://theconversation.com/herd-immunity-wont-solve-our-covid-19-problem-139724 opposed to 90% which is herd immunity anyway. All you do is delay the inevitable.

Also some data even shows the HIF may be even 20%. https://www.stanforddaily.com/2020/...-19-curve-could-be-naturally-self-flattening/

In that case we should've stayed open in March and closed during Winter.

Just curious why a debate can't at least be had. Even in Parliament instead of Lock Down everyone off the streets. That potentially will kill 1000s in directly and stuff us for years to come.

 

[banzai]

Where? While New York and Sweden had massive spikes in ICUs and deaths they have been on the decline. In essence they took a hit in one go.

What we are doing is following a pattern. Unless we can fully eradicate then we are just delaying the inevitable. The Chief Health officer just said the virus hasn't mutated. So we are just drip feeding and prolonging the pain.

If enough people can build herd immunity they can act as a barrier to the elderly and vulnerable. Instead by locking everyone under the one bubble together the second restrictions are lifted it takes off like a bushfire.

Where Sweden and NYC stuffed it was by not shutting nursing homes and putting Covid patients in them.

Now while no one wants permanent lung damage I would actually be open to mixing risk getting the virus quarantine and immunity is created. (Like an 80s Chicken pox Party on steroids).

The only other way is to cleanse it totally. I think a) It is too contagious and you would need Stage 100 to do it. Like panic buy and lock down. Face it Stage 3 is non nonsensical. You go to work on PT, mix with 100s but than can't see anyone else? How is that when you critically think actually doing anything?

The Virus is here for ever. A vaccine may not come. Virus eradication can take 5 years. Even keeping our borders shut that long is nigh on impossible given we are dependent on the rest of the world to survive as a 25 million population.

Sure you can fine the bejeebus out of people (some won't care/can afford it) or jail them then you just spread it through the jails and the workers who are needed there.

I'm curious Bomberboyokay what would your strategy be? Not in terms of political management or Law and Order but how to manage this thing? Because imo lockdowns won't work long term. We will go flat surge lock down for years.

They are saying now that the antibodies disappear in a pretty small amount of time making herd immunity unlikely. So you wont get coronavirus twice in a few months but you may be able to get it again not too long after.

 

[SaintsSeptember]

288 cases. At what point do you just say f it and lets go herd immunity?
We can't lock down forever and if this thing is contagious through something air borne there really is no way to stop it.
12 in ICU but we have 4500 beds. Do we trust we flattened the curve beefed the hospitals enough and let it go gradually?
This is still the surge from opening up. Unless we eradicate it (can take 10 years) this will just repeat once the next lock downs lift. And we cycle back to another one. Furthermore some businesses like pubs, restaurants are no longer viable if social distancing is the new norm.

All on the wrong side of the Yarra.

You need 50% exposure to get any herd immunity. That's when people start dying . Do the maths 288 in a million.
It is contageous through something airborn. Spit. Stop breathing peoples spit. Stop crapping on about herd immunity like its some clever idea.
Its what happens when all the ones who are going to die, die, the immune herd is what's left.
Some of the rats are immune to rat poison. After you kill all the rats the few that are left have Herd immunity.

We never opened up much. Gatherings of 5 people was the rule. We had parties with 100s apparently.

 

[SaintsSeptember]

"herd immunity" has failed miserably elsewhere.

It works, its just that people chicken out after they find out how many are going to die. Stalin would have loved Herd immunity.

 

[M Malice]

It's time.

 

[Asapartyhat]

Getting back to the AFL and the coronavirus topic of this thread and ignoring all the other discussion as I do.

The postponement of stage five of restriction lifting in WA means crowds capped at 30,000 for AFL games at optus.Personally I'm ok with that .Though its a shame as 40,000 tickets have been sold for Eagles v Fremantle which was set to be a celebration event for all the hard work and sucess WA has had over covid -19. .Not surprised Victoria has managed to **** it up though.

 

[SaintsSeptember]

This is happening everywhere. I'm from a town in Country SA and at my local last night a lady was saying she met a couple with 2 kids who had admitted to sneaking across the border from Victoria. Using a backroad of some sort. Absolutely ridiculous.

The thing is we are an island and could quite easily eliminate the virus from australia if we went hardcore lockdown for 6 weeks or so and everyone did the right thing, then just entirely close the borders until the rest of the world fixes their sh*t.

But instead they mickey mouse the lockdowns and people create facebook groups to get around police checkpoints

The imposed restrictions were fine.
Its the fact that people are not following them is the problem.

So security guards breached the rules and got it.
Then they joined up with heaps of other people breaching the rules who got it.

 

[Run n Spread]

They are saying now that the antibodies disappear in a pretty small amount of time making herd immunity unlikely. So you wont get coronavirus twice in a few months but you may be able to get it again not too long after.

Wouldn't that therefore make a vaccine impossible?

This becomes like malaria which does have some vaccines but they aren't seen as having high efficacy.

 

[Senor M]

Getting back to the AFL and the coronavirus topic of this thread and ignoring all the other discussion as I do.

The postponement of stage five of restriction lifting in WA means crowds capped at 30,000 for AFL games at optus.Personally I'm ok with that .Though its a shame as 40,000 tickets have been sold for Eagles v Fremantle which was set to be a celebration event for all the hard work and sucess WA has had over covid -19. .Not surprised Victoria has managed to fu** it up though.

Damn... #VICBIAS strikes again

 

[JackOutback]

288 cases. At what point do you just say f it and lets go herd immunity?

Only if you don't want to visit any other state in Australia and want to see your tourism industry wither and die. No one else is going herd immunity on Victoria's say-so.

 

[Run n Spread]

All on the wrong side of the Yarra.

You need 50% exposure to get any herd immunity. That's when people start dying . Do the maths 288 in a million.
It is contageous through something airborn. Spit. Stop breathing peoples spit. Stop crapping on about herd immunity like its some clever idea.
Its what happens when all the ones who are going to die, die, the immune herd is what's left.
Some of the rats are immune to rat poison. After you kill all the rats the few that are left have Herd immunity.

We never opened up much. Gatherings of 5 people was the rule. We had parties with 100s apparently.

But gatherings of even 5 will not stop it. It will still spread and when you eventually open up. Like it has now.
WTF rat poison can only infect one rat at a time completely different argument. You can't breath peoples spit FFS.

Herd immunity is what happens when the healthy develop immunity and act as a barrier to the rest who are vulnerable. Its not an idea it's a pattern as with any virus. Locking everyone into together is the worse thing you can possibly do. (Unless you can be confident of eradication). All you are doing is keeping a virus active and slowly bubbling until we re open and it explodes again. Rinse and repeat.

If all it takes is 1 guard shagging someone they shouldn't have or a few parties to blow this thing up again and require a re lock down then the policy needs at least a consideration.

 

[Forward Press]

And if elimination doesn't work than what? Eventually 75% of people get it anyway (according to the link) https://theconversation.com/herd-immunity-wont-solve-our-covid-19-problem-139724 opposed to 90% which is herd immunity anyway. All you do is delay the inevitable.

Also some data even shows the HIF may be even 20%. https://www.stanforddaily.com/2020/...-19-curve-could-be-naturally-self-flattening/

In that case we should've stayed open in March and closed during Winter.

Just curious why a debate can't at least be had. Even in Parliament instead of Lock Down everyone off the streets. That potentially will kill 1000s in directly and stuff us for years to come.

If a vaccine comes along in say December, then you've essentially sacrificed thousands for nothing. No health gain, no social gain, no economic gain. There are dozens of various real life studies and examples around the world showing that even 'business as usual' somewhat kind of countries (eg much of USA, Sweden, Brazil etc) still have economies experiencing recessions as severe as those with the strictest lockdowns.

I don't buy the idea that delaying the spread as much as you can hoping for a vaccine is a forlorn hope - either health wise or economically.

 

[pablo668]

I'm no scientist, but I'm really intrigued that the virus can lurk below testing detection levels and then become active again in the right conditions. A bit like herpes and aids

That's what Viruses do. They are incredibly small and hard to detect. Scientists/people in labs often find they are there by putting what they think is infected blood etc in a medium, then waiting a set amount of time and checking back to see if the medium has been consumed or infected or whatever.
To actually see them directly they need really powerful electron microscopes and such.

I guess it doesn't help that this virus has a two week lag time before symptoms show and that some people are asymptomatic.
There have been times with different viruses where the people looking for them have gone back to old samples they thought were clean only to find out the virus was actually there all along.

Read David Quammens book, Spillover.

 

[parsons nose]

That's what Viruses do. They are incredibly small and hard to detect. Scientists/people in labs often find they are there by putting what they think is infected blood etc in a medium, then waiting a set amount of time and checking back to see if the medium has been consumed or infected or whatever.
To actually see them directly they need really powerful electron microscopes and such.

I guess it doesn't help that this virus has a two week lag time before symptoms show and that some people are asymptomatic.
There have been times with different viruses where the people looking for them have gone back to old samples they thought were clean only to find out the virus was actually there all along.

Read David Quammens book, Spillover.

I’ve Read that book- eerily prophetic.

 

[Pessimistic]

All on the wrong side of the Yarra.

You need 50% exposure to get any herd immunity. That's when people start dying . Do the maths 288 in a million.
It is contageous through something airborn. Spit. Stop breathing peoples spit. Stop crapping on about herd immunity like its some clever idea.
Its what happens when all the ones who are going to die, die, the immune herd is what's left.
Some of the rats are immune to rat poison. After you kill all the rats the few that are left have Herd immunity.

We never opened up much. Gatherings of 5 people was the rule. We had parties with 100s apparently.

Hmm. got me thinking how easy it would be to roadblock the bridges over the Yarra. Theres about 24 to warrandyte and probably as many footbridges

 

[pablo668]

Yeah the whole 'Herd Immunity' argument.
That's basically, you've had a good run Grandma, sorry.

Another way of thinking about herd immunity, get an image in your head of all the people you know and like/love, you know, friends and family.
How many and which ones are you willing to see die? All for the great Ponzi scheme we call the economy, or to be able to go to the pub or for the footy to keep going?

That possibly comes across as overly emotive, but that it what we are looking at.
Other arguments tend to drag in different statistics and state how low the chances are supposed to be, but this is misleading too. It's not unlike work safety in a way.These days workers of all types are forced to jump through heaps of hoops on the chance of something bad happening, paperwork, ppe, phone calls, all sorts. The rationale behind it all though is not the chances of something going wrong, so much as the consequences if something goes wrong.

You can't buck the system with workplace safety, you get fired if you do, I'm not sure why so many want to buck the system with Public Health.

 

[jatz14]

If a vaccine comes along in say December, then you've essentially sacrificed thousands for nothing. No health gain, no social gain, no economic gain. There are dozens of various real life studies and examples around the world showing that even 'business as usual' somewhat kind of countries (eg much of USA, Sweden, Brazil etc) still have economies experiencing recessions as severe as those with the strictest lockdowns.

I don't buy the idea that delaying the spread as much as you can hoping for a vaccine is a forlorn hope - either health wise or economically.

The death rate is falling considerably as better treatments are worked out. Getting it now is much better than getting it 3 months ago. getting it in 3 months will be much better than getting it now.

Just going `**** it, its out now, lets not bother anymore` is going to kill people, even if lockdown now just mean the same number of infected later on. Less will die.

 

[Tiger Toffee]

Yeah well just stay on your side of the Yarra.

Not over thinking it, but you are under thinking it.
Not planning on avoiding anyone . But i can go a few weeks without snuggling strangers.
I can listen to random idiots on the net, or listen to the government.
There are plenty of other states , where its not so shitty.

Government is going to keep locking you down every time there is an outbreak, when will enough be enough or are you happy to let the government strip months or years away from your life, the clown is going to extend this lockdown, that you can take to the bank. The way this country is acting one would think we are top 10 in the world and not 70 odd.

As for staying on the other side of the Yarra, you are obviously a northerner then, no infections in my neck of the woods but according to mister m we need to pull our heads in because we can't be trusted.

 

[Sterge]

Government is going to keep locking you down every time there is an outbreak, when will enough be enough or are you happy to let the government strip months or years away from your life, the clown is going to extend this lockdown, that you can take to the bank. The way this country is acting one would think we are top 10 in the world and not 70 odd.

As for staying on the other side of the Yarra, you are obviously a northerner then, no infections in my neck of the woods but according to mister m we need to pull our heads in because we can't be trusted.

1 new infection on the peninsula today.

Maybe time to stop being so ignorant and staring at the whales.

 

[Senor M]

Government is going to keep locking you down every time there is an outbreak, when will enough be enough or are you happy to let the government strip months or years away from your life, the clown is going to extend this lockdown, that you can take to the bank. The way this country is acting one would think we are top 10 in the world and not 70 odd.

As for staying on the other side of the Yarra, you are obviously a northerner then, no infections in my neck of the woods but according to mister m we need to pull our heads in because we can't be trusted.

The behaviour of individuals in my local LGA hasn't been specifically discussed in the past two daily press conferences by Daniel Andrews & Shane Patton

 

[Tiger Toffee]

The behaviour of individuals in my local LGA hasn't been specifically discussed in the past two daily press conferences by Daniel Andrews & Shane Patton

0, i repeat 0, whats that number again 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

 

[Senor M]

0, i repeat 0, whats that number again 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

I'm not debating the numbers--- all I'm suggesting is that the Mornington Peninsula is in lockdown despite those numbers because there's a track record of people in that region not following health advice RE: lockdowns (both with residents breaking quarantine restrictions in March and then people Whale watching yesterday).

Why do you think that the Mornington Peninsula & whale watching has been mentioned in the Daily Press conferences twice in the past two days?