Mega Thread Coronavirus & the AFL - Stage 4 Restrictions in Place in Vic - Part 3

[Gralin]

This is part Three.

Part One can be found here -

Mega Thread - Coronavirus & the AFL - season postponed. (Thread part 1 - cont in part 2, link in thread)

This is part 1 of this thread. Continued in Part 2: https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/coronavirus-the-afl-season-postponed-part-2.1237935/

www.bigfooty.com

Part Two can be found here -

Mega Thread - Coronavirus & the AFL - season postponed. Part 2 * CONTINUED ABUSE WILL NOT BE TOLERATED *

https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/pages/covid-stats-australia/

www.bigfooty.com

Part 4 can be found here:

Mega Thread - Coronavirus & the AFL - Stage 4 Restrictions in Place in Vic - Part 4

This is part Four. Part One can be found here - https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/coronavirus-the-afl-season-postponed.1236651/unread Part Two can be found here -...

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Australian stats page:

Australian Coronavirus Stats

Latest COVID-19 stats from Australia.

www.bigfooty.com

 

[the harry]

Thats what i thought here - but a lot of folk over 60 will want it to be either gone completely or a vaccine before they will attend matches. And i dont blame them.

This is what has happened with Eagles games yeah? Low take up by the older members who don't want to risk going.

 

[Major Colvin]

It's not crazy talk at all. The government is hellbent on this being how we live until something changes like an effective treatment or vaccine. It is blatantly obvious. Have you not listened to anything they've said since March? They are hellbent on having us live miserably like this until they think it is appropriate for normality to return. When or if that will ever happens, who the fu** the knows?

Corona is not like catching the flu and I'm not sure why 5-6 months later you and others are saying this.

Footy is f’ed in Victoria for the foreseeable future as far as I can tell. I've given up any hope of being able to go to a packed footy game in Melbourne.

I've recently come to this realisation as well. I think 2022 is the best we cant hope for in terms of attendance at the footy in Victoria returning to any semblance of normality (albiet it will still be different), but that is dependent on a lot of things going right.

 

[juss]

222 new cases in VIC today, a great sign that things are working. 13 days ago we had 725 new daily cases, so to cut those down to the numbers today is a great result.

 

[juss]

Why not? There is an AFL competition happening right now without games and crowds in Victoria

Hello 400 VIC players and other club staff, so everything is cool for 2021, except we probably need to lay a bunch more of you off, and probably cut down the salaries a bit more, and you guys will probably spend the season interstate in accommodation again, you're all cool with that yeh?

Don't think the AFL can get this to fly again for the entire 2021. But I don't think it will get to that.

 

[PP34]

Hello 400 VIC players and other club staff, so everything is cool for 2021, except we probably need to lay a bunch more of you off, and probably cut down the salaries a bit more, and you guys will probably spend the season interstate in accommodation again, you're all cool with that yeh?

Don't think the AFL can get this to fly again for the entire 2021. But I don't think it will get to that.

Yeah I can’t see the players from any states wanting to hub again next season. They already whinged enough this season.

 

[HTT]

I think testing will get expanded to allow asymptomatic testing soon. The regular cold/flu viruses would be totally squashed now, so there aren’t as many people getting symptoms of anything and therefore aren’t getting tested. If there’s testing capacity, we need to be using it.

 

[swingdog]

I've recently come to this realisation as well. I think 2022 is the best we cant hope for in terms of attendance at the footy in Victoria returning to any semblance of normality (albiet it will still be different), but that is dependent on a lot of things going right.

This epidemiologist supports that notion.

'Stage 2 for a long while': Epidemiologist warns Victorians to get used to COVID-normal life

A Melbourne epidemiologist warns Victoria is likely to linger between stage 2 and stage 3 coronavirus restrictions "for a long while" as the state's second wave continues its slow decline.

www.abc.net.au

I'd be interested to see whether community sport gets back. I could see some, like cricket, where contact is minimal making it, but maybe not footy. Thinking ahead to what that means for future drafts, imagine trying to select new players if there's no private school comps or junior comps.

 

[Atomboy]

Yeah I can’t see the players from any states wanting to hub again next season. They already whinged enough this season.

Hopefully the Saints hub out of Noosa very year from now on. Been awesome.

 

[Major Colvin]

This epidemiologist supports that notion.

'Stage 2 for a long while': Epidemiologist warns Victorians to get used to COVID-normal life

A Melbourne epidemiologist warns Victoria is likely to linger between stage 2 and stage 3 coronavirus restrictions "for a long while" as the state's second wave continues its slow decline.

www.abc.net.au

I'd be interested to see whether community sport gets back. I could see some, like cricket, where contact is minimal making it, but maybe not footy. Thinking ahead to what that means for future drafts, imagine trying to select new players if there's no private school comps or junior comps.

What concerned me about the article was this section:


While other states like Queensland are in a safe enough position to open stadium events like sports matches to crowds, Professor Baxter believes it is unlikely Victoria will get to that stage.

"If we can get to elimination then maybe that will be us too, but I'm not sure we can do that.

"We won't be able to be like other states."

At risk of sounding like a broken record, the Australian Federal government's position on COVID always has been suppression, not elimination. This etxract suggests that Victoria (and perhaps NSW) should shoulder the burden of suppressing the virus within its borders for an indefinite period of time (until there is a vaccine, which again, will not ensure eradication of the virus). I don't see how that's workable.

 

[Monkey King]

Learn from your mistakes, and those of others, and don’t repeat them. That’s the only point I’m making.

But I didn't make any mistakes.

What am I supposed to have learned from others exactly? To not **** people in quarantine? Not hire untrained security guards to secure quarantined individuals? To not wander around in public while waiting for test results? Yeah, like, I kinda knew all this already.

 

[juss]

Is anyone else worried that at a certain point (certainly not yet), Australia needs to consider what we do if no vaccine is found.
We can't restrict people's lives and freedoms indefinitely from now until the end, but admittedly that decision is a long way away.

 

[nick1408]

This epidemiologist supports that notion.

'Stage 2 for a long while': Epidemiologist warns Victorians to get used to COVID-normal life

A Melbourne epidemiologist warns Victoria is likely to linger between stage 2 and stage 3 coronavirus restrictions "for a long while" as the state's second wave continues its slow decline.

www.abc.net.au

I'd be interested to see whether community sport gets back. I could see some, like cricket, where contact is minimal making it, but maybe not footy. Thinking ahead to what that means for future drafts, imagine trying to select new players if there's no private school comps or junior comps.

The problem is not what sports make it back but the people making the decisions. While I agree with you that cricket is minimal contact there is no guarantee the people know the sport well enough to make an informed decision. All you need is someone who doesn't know the sport well that says "nope!" and it's off. And is there enough knowledge of all the sports played in Victoria? Any trugo players in Government?

Then there are going to be the sports that miss out "Why did cricket get accepted but not baseball? MCC conspiracy!!!!"

I must say - I hope cricket does get back though - I am missing it!

 

[kranky al]

This is what has happened with Eagles games yeah? Low take up by the older members who don't want to risk going.

Eagles members are pretty old because you are basically waiting for them to die to get a ticket.

And yeah lots of the older folk are just giving it the big nope.

The ticketing arrangements are a pita too - its like trying to get finals tix

 

[Pessimistic]

Now we find most current cases are genomically linked to two infections in hotel quarantine . Mostly from one family. A report says the first detained family manager fell ill 9th may and the family then fell sick, moved on 15 may. On 25th authorities became aware there was community transmission

lockdowns began in late June.

i would have had questions.

how many returned travellers with infections were successfully quarantined?

was this family tested (were people routinely tested) and if so would they have had earlier warning to isolate them further (its unfair to other returned travellers to be kept in close proximity to them)

when did medically trained staff become involved with cases?

I guess the ‘did they get offered ADF personnel and did they use them’ argument is a bit sidelined now (unless off course they were medical ADF personnel)

 

[mcnulty]

But I didn't make any mistakes.

What am I supposed to have learned from others exactly? To not fu** people in quarantine? Not hire untrained security guards to secure quarantined individuals? To not wander around in public while waiting for test results? Yeah, like, I kinda knew all this already.

This is bizarre. I’m not addressing you personally. Would’ve thought that was obvious.

 

[swingdog]

The problem is not what sports make it back but the people making the decisions. While I agree with you that cricket is minimal contact there is no guarantee the people know the sport well enough to make an informed decision. All you need is someone who doesn't know the sport well that says "nope!" and it's off. And is there enough knowledge of all the sports played in Victoria? Any trugo players in Government?

Then there are going to be the sports that miss out "Why did cricket get accepted but not baseball? MCC conspiracy!!!!"

I must say - I hope cricket does get back though - I am missing it!

That was certainly the case in the UK with Boris and his cricket ball as a 'vector of disease' dribble, before somebody put him right.

 

[Monkey King]

This is bizarre. I’m not addressing you personally. Would’ve thought that was obvious.

The problem with ubiquitous pronouns like "they" is that it addresses everybody.

 

[HTT]

I don't see why we can't chase elimination in Victoria. Why go from 500 cases a day to 10 and then go 'nah, thats the best we can do, don't worry about it now'
Obviously its super difficult to keep the virus out forever, we will probably need further lockdown periods - but it seems like that's the case with suppression too.
To me the only difference seems to be that between lockdowns you get to go to the footy (etc.) if you go for elimination.

 

[mcnulty]

The problem with ubiquitous pronouns like "they" is that it addresses everybody.

Ok feel free to take it personally then. No skin off my nose.

 

[nick1408]

Look on the bright side - influenza is more or less non-existent in Victoria this year. 10 cases a week apparently. Sutton said you're more likely to have Coronavirus than the flu if you have the symptoms

 

[Forward Press]

Look on the bright side - influenza is more or less non-existent in Victoria this year. 10 cases a week apparently. Sutton said you're more likely to have Coronavirus than the flu if you have the symptoms

Another benefit would be a drastically reduced road toll, pollution and congestion, deaths and hospitalisation from other contagious diseases etc that come about from simply having less people going about their business.

Is anyone else worried that at a certain point (certainly not yet), Australia needs to consider what we do if no vaccine is found.
We can't restrict people's lives and freedoms indefinitely from now until the end, but admittedly that decision is a long way away.

When the treatments get better and better and the health, aged care, logistics etc sectors improve then we and the rest of the world will definitely move into the 'live with it' phase. For now, though, it's better to keep kicking the can down the road because if a vaccine comes along, it at least means we have reduced the amount of avoidable deaths as much as is feasible. I think at the moment the fatality rate for those with the virus has halved since the beginning of the pandemic at the start of 2020.

 

[juss]

Another benefit would be a drastically reduced road toll, pollution and congestion, deaths and hospitalisation from other contagious diseases etc that come about from simply having less people going about their business.



When the treatments get better and better and the health, aged care, logistics etc sectors improve then we and the rest of the world will definitely move into the 'live with it' phase. For now, though, it's better to keep kicking the can down the road because if a vaccine comes along, it at least means we have reduced the amount of avoidable deaths as much as is feasible. I think at the moment the fatality rate for those with the virus has halved since the beginning of the pandemic at the start of 2020.

Agree, we will get better at managing it, but I don't think the next phase can hinge on a vaccine. The "live with it" might need to come sooner, especially if no vaccine is available. Certainly not for 2020 though.

 

[Major Colvin]

Is anyone else worried that at a certain point (certainly not yet), Australia needs to consider what we do if no vaccine is found.
We can't restrict people's lives and freedoms indefinitely from now until the end, but admittedly that decision is a long way away.

We should be preparing for the prospect of not having a vaccine and now. Otherwise, we are putting ourselves at the mercy of an outcome we have no control over.

We are also erroneously extrapolating that a vaccine will eliminate the virus, when most likely it wont. It is always best to assume the worst and plan accordingly, particularly when the desired or hopeful outcome is outside your control.

I don't see why we can't chase elimination in Victoria. Why go from 500 cases a day to 10 and then go 'nah, thats the best we can do, don't worry about it now'
Obviously its super difficult to keep the virus out forever, we will probably need further lockdown periods - but it seems like that's the case with suppression too.
To me the only difference seems to be that between lockdowns you get to go to the footy (etc.) if you go for elimination.

I've changed my tune on this in recent weeks, where I too was extolling elimination, but having seen the minor resurgency in NZ I realise, an elimination strategy will leave society more exposed to mass outbreaks, because we wouldnt be fortifying our society against the extreme likelihood the virus will re-emerge. We need to adopt the post-COVID mindset and accept this is a very clear demarcation in hisory.

Besides, the Federal government's policy is suppression, not elimination. They should be accompanying that objective with an actual plan - widespread, affordable and rapid testing in workplaces and tracing (which has been a complete bust at this point - the Covidsafe app is useless).

 

[kranky al]

Agree, we will get better at managing it, but I don't think the next phase can hinge on a vaccine. The "live with it" might need to come sooner, especially if no vaccine is available. Certainly not for 2020 though.

Before you get to live with it you want to check the long term effects reasonably thoroughly

Because they arent looking great for a good percentage of the population

 

[The 747]

Hello 400 VIC players and other club staff, so everything is cool for 2021, except we probably need to lay a bunch more of you off, and probably cut down the salaries a bit more, and you guys will probably spend the season interstate in accommodation again, you're all cool with that yeh?

Don't think the AFL can get this to fly again for the entire 2021. But I don't think it will get to that.

So if they cancel the season do all of those people get paid?