AFL 2021 AFL Round 1

[Robo87]

Last bets for Richmond/Carlton

2.5u - Cripps over 25.5 disposals - $1.85 - lads
Carlton’s clear best player, no concern of a tag, always brings the heat to this fixture and has a cracking track record against the Tigers. Very surprised to see this one this low, would’ve probably expected a 24.5 for reduced quarters so snapping this one up!

5u - Walsh 25+ disposals - $1.85 - 365
5u - Walsh under 27.5 disposals - $1.82 - lads
Taking a middle opportunity here. Already backing Walsh 25+ earlier in the week, but this one stands out at value, 27.5 is slightly too high here, and by taking both of these bets we are only risking 0.9units to win a max of 8.35 units if disposals land on 25, 26, or 27. Don’t take the bet if you can’t get both bets on.

Tailing 2u Cripps over 24.5 @1.87 on Pb

 

[Ohh Ok]

Tailing 2u Cripps over 24.5 @1.87 on Pb

Damn my impatience, was just about to start work and thought PB wouldn’t release their odds until later this arvo. That’s an unreal spot. Can’t believe they’ve got that low.

 

[Ohh Ok]

Also Ladbrokes have their disposal markets all over the place. Have Walsh as their highest line but have him ranked 5th out of 8 in their most disposals market at $6. Can grab $6.50 at SB

 

[iluvparis]

FADING THE HYPELORDS - Week 1

I won POTY last year by fading the hypelords and backing the one good team in the comp (Richmond). Things look pretty evenly priced in Rd 1 but am going with the hypelord fade of the Saints in week 1.

SGM - GWS v St Kilda
GWS H2H
Membrey AGS
J Kelly 20+ Disposals
@ 2.10

 

[OhhDeledio]

dusty 25+ @ 1.85 b365
had a big pre season and looks fitter than ever. averaging 29.8 in his last 5 vs carlton, incl a 24 in the shortened game. coming off 23 touches from 64% tog against collignwood last week. 30+ @4.50

dusty 25+
walsh 20+
lynch to kick a goal in both halves
riewoldt ags
richmond win
@4.86 lads

 

[juss]

Agree on principle but i'm concerned adding Bris if it's in teaming rain and they prefer to run and gun.

Nothing wrong with safety first when punting, but a top 4 team and predicted contender shouldn't have any trouble in round 1 at home against a likely bottom 5 team rain, hail or shine.

 

[Ohh Ok]

said no more but gotta take it


2.5u Martin 25+ 365 $1.85
Gotta back dusty after news of Cotchin out. Massive ore season and looking set to play more midfield this year

 

[Atavistic]

Anyone like Jordan Clark

6

Jordan Clark

Age

25

Ht

185cm

Wt

83kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

13.7

4star

K

9.4

4star

HB

4.3

3star

M

4.2

4star

T

2.6

4star

MG

172.0

3star

D

12.5

3star

K

8.5

3star

HB

4.0

3star

M

4.0

4star

T

1.5

2star

MG

172.0

3star

D

12.2

3star

K

10.4

4star

HB

1.8

2star

M

3.4

4star

T

2.4

4star

for disposals? Got 29 against Essendon, and he's $2.50 for 20+, $6 for 25+ and $15 for 30+ vs Adelaide. At SB. Confirmed starter.

Did anyone else here get on this:


Been hammered in today.

 

[LionsOrDieTrion]

Richmond 4+ goals a quarter @$14

 

[OhhDeledio]

 

[burge13]

FADING THE HYPELORDS - Week 1

I won POTY last year by fading the hypelords and backing the one good team in the comp (Richmond). Things look pretty evenly priced in Rd 1 but am going with the hypelord fade of the Saints in week 1.

SGM - GWS v St Kilda
GWS H2H
Membrey AGS
J Kelly 20+ Disposals
@ 2.10

From my observation, the dogs have been hyped way more than the saints. What is your hypelord criteria? How scientific is this hypelord model?

 

[OhhDeledio]

View attachment 1079843

this same multi gets about 14.50 at both lads and sb, and thats with baker 20+ instead of 15 aswell.

 

[freo_leo29]

Woah bet365 offer decent odds for SGM, shame they are one of the worst for banning us

 

[Shinboner '07]

Underestimate North at your own peril. This will be upset of the season!

 

[mouncey2franklin]

Is McDonald under an injury cloud?

Not that I know of. But he is the only player in the back six I'd think could do the job on Orazio.

To be fair, I don't know anything about Corr. He might also be good.

 

[maskmcgee]

Carlton have given up the first 5 or 6 goals in the opener the last 4 times or so, right?

 

[iluvparis]

From my observation, the dogs have been hyped way more than the saints. What is your hypelord criteria? How scientific is this hypelord model?

Haven’t seen many hyping the dogs except against Collingwood. People tipping the aints to finish top 8? Plz

The model is my multi year expertise at identifying hypelords

 

[squeaky1000]

Bet365 bet builder
Dusty 25+, Edwards 20+, Walsh 20+, Baker 15+, McIntosh 10+, tigers h2h $8

 

[tangolikelama]

Prestia 20+
Cripps 20+
Dusty 25+
Edwards O/22.5+
Curnow O/21.5+
Riewoldt AGS
Lynch 2+

@14.75

 

[demon_fanatic]

Any josh caddy

22

Josh Caddy

Age

33

Ht

186cm

Wt

87kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

17.0

4star

K

9.2

4star

HB

7.8

5star

M

3.6

4star

T

3.5

5star

CL

2.5

4star

D

13.5

3star

K

7.5

3star

HB

6.0

3star

M

4.8

4star

T

1.5

2star

CL

0.7

3star

D

14.0

4star

K

10.0

4star

HB

4.0

3star

M

4.2

4star

T

4.0

5star

CL

1.8

4star

fantasy or sc markets? Should get a fair bit of it moving up ground and no cotchin,also be determined to hold his spot

 

[Torpedro]

We've just lost Matt Crouch

5

Matt Crouch

Age

30

Ht

181cm

Wt

85kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

28.4

5star

K

12.0

4star

HB

16.4

5star

M

3.3

3star

T

3.9

5star

CL

4.8

5star

D

24.9

5star

K

9.7

4star

HB

15.1

5star

M

2.4

3star

T

2.4

3star

CL

4.4

5star

D

21.2

5star

K

10.4

4star

HB

10.8

5star

M

4.4

4star

T

3.4

5star

CL

2.0

4star

. Get on Geelong 40+ 2.75 B365

 

[LionsOrDieTrion]

Rich -5.5 first quarter
20+ Dusty Cripps Walsh
Storm
Addo-Carr ATTS
Parra to score over 7.5 points

SB boosted 12.33

 

[ashley12]

This is $2.05 on Ladbrokes for a goal. No market on him for 2+ unfortunately, the highest price is McIntosh at $5.80. Have had a nibble for 1U.

--------------------

Jayden Short looks to have been crunched in on Ladbrokes for possessions markets but not yet for DreamTeam. Therefore I have the following bets on

1U: Short most DT points in his group $6.50 (vs Walsh, D.Martin, Curnow, Cripps, Nankervis, Setterfield, Prestia). For comparison he is $3.50 vs a similar group for most disposals.
2U: Short $2.15 to beat Walsh DT
2U: Short $1.90 to beat Ed Curnow DT

------------------------

Teams wise I like the look of the various big favourites to win and for Geelong to cover. I think its a print for Geelong with JC and TH to go huge.

Short now $1.62 to beat Curnow and almost a flip vs Walsh. Nice to see we got one in good to start the season.

 

[Bostonian]

Have sportsbet got rid of the 15 possession lines for multis?

Can't seem to see them.

 

[Mazza1234678]

Oh god Nathan Brown

22

Nathan Brown

Age

37

Ht

196cm

Wt

99kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

8.8

2star

K

3.9

2star

HB

4.9

4star

M

2.7

3star

T

1.8

4star

No current season stats available

D

6.4

2star

K

3.2

2star

HB

3.2

3star

M

1.8

2star

T

2.8

5star

has Castagna in his SGM

FML