Is Steven Wells seriously past it?

Remove this Banner Ad

P

Pomsta

All Australian
Veteran
Jun 10, 2010
969
1,787
Stuck at Home
AFL Club
Richmond
Other Teams
Wolves, 49ers
I was looking at the Trade Jordan Clark thread and thinking that Geelong can't afford to trade any of their young players. When you look at the list you see that there are very few players under 25 that are any good. So I thought that I'd look at Geelong's last 10 drafts.
From 2011 onwards I would rate Jordan Clark about the 5th best player picked in the National Draft after Menegola, Parfitt, Stewart and Kelly. I would also rate Henry and Blicavs from the rookie draft ahead of him. Out of those players only Parfitt was straight out of the Juniors.
Has there been a worse drafter of kids in the last decade? I realise that Geelong don't get high picks but most teams have decent kids picked after the 1st round. Chris Scott gets blamed for not playing kids but if Wells picks duds who is really at fault?
 
Clark is done. Bin him.

Not Wells fault when they can barely get a game. Have been the best side in terms of consistency over a decade so there's little chance to play kids. When they contribute (e.g. Henry, O'Connor) they get picked and play. Not much chance for development. He has mucked up top picks, that said.
 

Log in to remove this ad.

Yeah his drafting and trade record since the late 00s has not been great, admittedly the Cats haven't had access to juicy first round picks, but even then he has wasted them on busts like Cockatoo
, Lang, Smedts and others I have forgotten to mention.
No one can deny his Great work in the past, but it feels like The Cats need a change and a fresh face in charge of their list management going forwards
 
Pomsta said:
I was looking at the Trade Jordan Clark thread and thinking that Geelong can't afford to trade any of their young players. When you look at the list you see that there are very few players under 25 that are any good. So I thought that I'd look at Geelong's last 10 drafts.
From 2011 onwards I would rate Jordan Clark about the 5th best player picked in the National Draft after Menegola, Parfitt, Stewart and Kelly. I would also rate Henry and Blicavs from the rookie draft ahead of him. Out of those players only Parfitt was straight out of the Juniors.
Has there been a worse drafter of kids in the last decade? I realise that Geelong don't get high picks but most teams have decent kids picked after the 1st round. Chris Scott gets blamed for not playing kids but if Wells picks duds who is really at fault?
Click to expand...

So you would rate Jordan Clark ahead of these current AFL players? Picked by Wells in the drafts you mentioned (last two drafts too early to tell and excluding the players you already mentioned):

Linc McCarthy
Jed Bews
Joel Hamling
Jake Kolo
Josh Walker
Nakia Cockatoo
Ryan Gardiner
Jermaine Jones
Quinton Narkle
Esava Ratagolea
Zach Guthrie
Sam Simpson
Darcy Fogarty
Gryan Miers

Jordan Clark who can't get a regular game at AFL level....
 
The 747 said:
So you would rate Jordan Clark ahead of these current AFL players? Picked by Wells in the drafts you mentioned (last two drafts too early to tell and excluding the players you already mentioned):

Linc McCarthy
Jed Bews
Joel Hamling
Jake Kolo
Josh Walker
Nakia Cockatoo
Ryan Gardiner
Jermaine Jones
Quinton Narkle
Esava Ratagolea
Zach Guthrie
Sam Simpson
Darcy Fogarty
Gryan Miers

Jordan Clark who can't get a regular game at AFL level....
Click to expand...
Honestly, from the little I've seen of Clark, yes I would.
 
The 747 said:
So you would rate Jordan Clark ahead of these current AFL players? Picked by Wells in the drafts you mentioned (last two drafts too early to tell and excluding the players you already mentioned):

Linc McCarthy
Jed Bews
Joel Hamling
Jake Kolo
Josh Walker
Nakia Cockatoo
Ryan Gardiner
Jermaine Jones
Quinton Narkle
Esava Ratagolea
Zach Guthrie
Sam Simpson
Darcy Fogarty
Gryan Miers

Jordan Clark who can't get a regular game at AFL level....
Click to expand...
The major issue is this is a list of the "better" players after the top 4. Only Miers, Bews and Ratagolea get, or got in most cases, regular games for Geelong.
 
It's been poor development, the choices are always a bit of hit and miss when you don't have any top 10 picks, but Geelong in the past 10 years have missed the mark more often than not..This year Geelong has 30, 32 and 34 along with 52.
Could be slim pickings again?
 
Pomsta said:
The major issue is this is a list of the "better" players after the top 4. Only Miers, Bews and Ratagolea get, or got in most cases, regular games for Geelong.
Click to expand...

My issue with your post is that you think Jordan Clark is better than regular AFL players. A secondary issue is that looks be a fairly long list of AFL standard players drafted with rubbish picks (and that list leaves out rookie solutions).
 
The 747 said:
So you would rate Jordan Clark ahead of these current AFL players? Picked by Wells in the drafts you mentioned (last two drafts too early to tell and excluding the players you already mentioned):

Linc McCarthy
Jed Bews
Joel Hamling
Jake Kolo
Josh Walker
Nakia Cockatoo
Ryan Gardiner
Jermaine Jones
Quinton Narkle
Esava Ratagolea
Zach Guthrie
Sam Simpson
Darcy Fogarty
Gryan Miers

Jordan Clark who can't get a regular game at AFL level....
Click to expand...
Linc McCarthy is bordering on A grade nowadays, probably the big 'what if'?
 

(Log in to remove this ad.)

Pomsta said:
I was looking at the Trade Jordan Clark thread and thinking that Geelong can't afford to trade any of their young players. When you look at the list you see that there are very few players under 25 that are any good. So I thought that I'd look at Geelong's last 10 drafts.
From 2011 onwards I would rate Jordan Clark about the 5th best player picked in the National Draft after Menegola, Parfitt, Stewart and Kelly. I would also rate Henry and Blicavs from the rookie draft ahead of him. Out of those players only Parfitt was straight out of the Juniors.
Has there been a worse drafter of kids in the last decade? I realise that Geelong don't get high picks but most teams have decent kids picked after the 1st round. Chris Scott gets blamed for not playing kids but if Wells picks duds who is really at fault?
Click to expand...

Interesting analysis.

Could say similar about Hartley at Richmond. Outside of Vlaustin who was a single figure pick (reward for being sh*t) Richmond have just Bolton, Balta and Graham left that I would rate as average AFL footballers or better taken in the national draft over the same time period.

As for Wells his 2011 draft haul is actually impressive: McCarthy, Bews and Blicavs as effectively rookie selections and Hamling as a mid range pick. Not Wells' fault Hamling and McCarthy we're both poached with deal lengths too long for Geelong to reasonably match.

No one would disagree that Geelong's draft hauls from 2012-2015 were underwhelming, however all those drafts were pretty weak from where Geelong started picking from. I mean you can bag the Darcy Lang selection all you want but it's not as though Luke Dunstan, Blake Acres and Lewis Taylor would have been much better - the players we were criticised on passing on at the time.

Finally our 2016 draft has IMO been the catalyst for our last three top four finishes. Parfitt, Stewart, Henry and O'Connor should be top 10 players for us in 2022 if not already and are entering their prime.

Wells has actually improved his strike rate with late picks and in the rookie draft over the last 10 years and continues to fare well with picks in the 20's and 40's but has struggled to find a winner with picks in the 15-19 range and in the 30's.
 
TheBigLeftBoot said:
Interesting analysis.

Could say similar about Hartley at Richmond. Outside of Vlaustin who was a single figure pick (reward for being sh*t) Richmond have just Bolton, Balta and Graham left that I would rate as average AFL footballers or better taken in the national draft over the same time period.

As for Wells his 2011 draft haul is actually impressive: McCarthy, Bews and Blicavs as effectively rookie selections and Hamling as a mid range pick. Not Wells' fault Hamling and McCarthy we're both poached with deal lengths too long for Geelong to reasonably match.
Click to expand...

They also did extremely well with their rookie picks as well though. They picked up 4 premiership players from just one rookie draft (2014 - Short, Castagna, Lambert and Soldo). And getting Grimes in the pre-season draft will go down as one of the great "what were the clubs smoking at the time" moments.
 
Wells not the problem.

Chris Scott is myopic. Blinkered. Like a dog on a bone.

Can look beyond one week.

Chris has ****ed the club for a decade.

Bookmark this post.
 
TheBigLeftBoot said:
Interesting analysis.

Could say similar about Hartley at Richmond. Outside of Vlaustin who was a single figure pick (reward for being sh*t) Richmond have just Bolton, Balta and Graham left that I would rate as average AFL footballers or better taken in the national draft over the same time period.

As for Wells his 2011 draft haul is actually impressive: McCarthy, Bews and Blicavs as effectively rookie selections and Hamling as a mid range pick. Not Wells' fault Hamling and McCarthy we're both poached with deal lengths too long for Geelong to reasonably match.

No one would disagree that Geelong's draft hauls from 2012-2015 were underwhelming, however all those drafts were pretty weak from where Geelong started picking from. I mean you can bag the Darcy Lang selection all you want but it's not as though Luke Dunstan, Blake Acres and Lewis Taylor would have been much better - the players we were criticised on passing on at the time.

Finally our 2016 draft has IMO been the catalyst for our last three top four finishes. Parfitt, Stewart, Henry and O'Connor should be top 10 players for us in 2022 if not already and are entering their prime.

Wells has actually improved his strike rate with late picks and in the rookie draft over the last 10 years and continues to fare well with picks in the 20's and 40's but has struggled to find a winner with picks in the 15-19 range and in the 30's.
Click to expand...

As mentioned by Partridge, limiting analysis of Richmond’s drafting over the last decade to the National Draft alone means you are not crediting the club for the recruitment of Soldo, Lambert, Castagna, Short, Baker, Stack, Pickett,

But your appraisal of the National Draft performance since 2011 omits:

Brandon Ellis - a dual flag player who landed a 5 year x $600k contract at the Suns.
Daniel Rioli - a triple flag small forward who at 24 has been moved successfully to the half back line.
Kamdyn McIntosh - a double flag role player on the wing who has been very solid for the club in 125 matches so far
Daniel Butler - who is a premiership player at Richmond who made the AA squad in 2020 at St Kilda
Oleg Markov - currently best 22 at the Suns
Nathan Broad - triple flag player who was thought by many to be leading our B&F before injured mid season 2021
Jack Higgins - currently best 22 St Kilda

And like Geelong but perhaps even moreso, a big array of as yet unexposed players Ross, Collier-Dawkins, Cumberland, Ralphsmith, Martyn, Ryan, M Rioli Jnr, Nyuon, Dow, Miller from the last 4 drafts as well as Coleman-Jones who is getting tidy longish term offers from other clubs.

I think the OP is too harsh on Wells, whose performance in comparison to other clubs seems fine to me from draft picks taken. I don’t think it stands to reason that he is the driving force behind the Cats all in on trading for experienced players policy. That appears more likely to be Scott to me, and I suspect it is frustrating some potentially good drafting from Wells and his team.

It seems to me that to have a strong list, and given you don’t trade your picks too often, you need to come up with about 2 average and above AFL best 22 players per year to be successful. And within that you need to find about 2 top class players every 5 years or so. I think the Tigers have done this and more comfortably over the last 10 years. The Cats to me would likely have done so, but instead have given away too many picks for players they can only expect about 5-6 seasons max from at a decent level of output. Where you trade these 5-6 season max guys in it means you need to double your strike rate, so you need to find closer to 4 new players every season who are average or better top 22 players. Then add to that every time you trade a top 20 type pick for a Stanley, Touhy, Henderson you reduce your chances of finding the 2 top class players you need to bring in every 5 years or so.
 
Pomsta said:
I was looking at the Trade Jordan Clark thread and thinking that Geelong can't afford to trade any of their young players. When you look at the list you see that there are very few players under 25 that are any good. So I thought that I'd look at Geelong's last 10 drafts.
From 2011 onwards I would rate Jordan Clark about the 5th best player picked in the National Draft after Menegola, Parfitt, Stewart and Kelly. I would also rate Henry and Blicavs from the rookie draft ahead of him. Out of those players only Parfitt was straight out of the Juniors.
Has there been a worse drafter of kids in the last decade? I realise that Geelong don't get high picks but most teams have decent kids picked after the 1st round. Chris Scott gets blamed for not playing kids but if Wells picks duds who is really at fault?
Click to expand...

I think you really need to show us who has been selected and at what pick for us to make this assessment (particularly given you've been through the drafts and done the analysis).

For comparative analysis, a traffic light system (red= delisted/bust, orange=fringe/ok, Green= good selection) or a points based system would also be helpful (as all recruiters make errors).

a points based system I've used before is:

AA level player:
Top 20 pick: 1.5 points
Pick 20-40: 3 points
Pick 40+: 4.5 points

Best 22:
Top 20 pick: 0 points
Pick 20-40: 1 point
Pick 40+: 2 points

Not best 22/delisted:
Top 20 pick: -2 points
Pick 20-40: -1 point
Pick 40+: 0 points

Then divide by total number of selections.

Not perfect but can be useful to compare recruiting between clubs over certain periods.

Failing that (given it takes some time), just a list of who they've picked at what pick is really needed to fully understand how well or poorly their recruiting is going.
 
We added Parfitt, Stewart, Henry, O'Connor, Ratugolea, Z. Guthrie, Simpson and Narkle in the 16 draft.
8 blokes who've played in a PF or GF for Geelong. The best defender in the comp, 1 bloke looking a chance to be AA at some stage and 2 good AFL players, along with a few useful (potentially even better) types.

Outside that draft, we've had a really poor decade in both the National and Rookie drafts.
 
Guardian Hawk said:
I think you really need to show us who has been selected and at what pick for us to make this assessment (particularly given you've been through the drafts and done the analysis).

For comparative analysis, a traffic light system (red= delisted/bust, orange=fringe/ok, Green= good selection) or a points based system would also be helpful (as all recruiters make errors).

a points based system I've used before is:

AA level player:
Top 20 pick: 1.5 points
Pick 20-40: 3 points
Pick 40+: 4.5 points

Best 22:
Top 20 pick: 0 points
Pick 20-40: 1 point
Pick 40+: 2 points

Not best 22/delisted:
Top 20 pick: -2 points
Pick 20-40: -1 point
Pick 40+: 0 points

Then divide by total number of selections.

Not perfect but can be useful to compare recruiting between clubs over certain periods.

Failing that (given it takes some time), just a list of who they've picked at what pick is really needed to fully understand how well or poorly their recruiting is going.
Click to expand...

Quick go.

2017: 4.5 from 6 players
2016: 15.5 from 11 players
2015: 2 from 7 players
2014: -2 from 7 players
2013: -1 from 9 players
2012: -2 from 3 players
2011: 6 from 9 players

Don't know if that's any good. Doesn't seem great.
 
Ricky Vaughn said:
Quick go.

2017: 4.5 from 6 players
2016: 15.5 from 11 players
2015: 2 from 7 players
2014: -2 from 7 players
2013: -1 from 9 players
2012: -2 from 3 players
2011: 6 from 9 players

Don't know if that's any good. Doesn't seem great.
Click to expand...

Your average is 0.44 which is very low comparatively. Although given your draft numbers I assume that includes rookie draft selections? When I've used this system in the past, these are "bonus points" but are not counted as part of 'number of draftees'.

You can obviously see that your 2012-2015 period was terrible. 2016 has gone some way to making up for that with a very handy draft.
 
Guardian Hawk said:
Your average is 0.44 which is very low comparatively. Although given your draft numbers I assume that includes rookie draft selections? When I've used this system in the past, these are "bonus points" but are not counted as part of 'number of draftees'.

You can obviously see that your 2012-2015 period was terrible. 2016 has gone some way to making up for that with a very handy draft.
Click to expand...

I included rookies, they are also the source of quite a few points.

2018 looks to be a bust also, but thought I'd give that some time.
 
Guardian Hawk said:
Your average is 0.44 which is very low comparatively. Although given your draft numbers I assume that includes rookie draft selections? When I've used this system in the past, these are "bonus points" but are not counted as part of 'number of draftees'.

You can obviously see that your 2012-2015 period was terrible. 2016 has gone some way to making up for that with a very handy draft.
Click to expand...

Out of interest, who are the clubs that have done really well by this measure?

On Wells, like all things on BF (and AFL in general), it is overhyped. He is neither as good as some people like to make out or as poor as some people like to make out. What he is good at is finding AFL players with late or rookie picks.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

PowerfulPies2023
Top 20 Past Players you've seen in your life time?
2
Replies
48
Views
2K
PowerfulPies2023
PowerfulPies2023
PerthBoy86
One thing premiership winners do well that isn't talked about much
Replies
2
Views
615
PerthBoy86
PerthBoy86
Chadwiko
Rules Is there a rule preventing an AFL club having a past-player adopt a gun rookie to make them eligible for father-son?
Replies
23
Views
2K
Viceregal
Viceregal
JD888
Past or present players and journos on BF
2
Replies
31
Views
3K
Soggy2112
Soggy2112
S
The 5 Day Break is it a disadvantage or not ?
Replies
0
Views
144
speedpeck23
S
BigVic
If you could change one result from the past, what would be?
2 3 4
Replies
80
Views
3K
VinnieB
VinnieB
L_W_P
  • Article
Steven May's mark - What will the AFL do?
2 3 4
Replies
99
Views
5K
HugeJohnson
HugeJohnson

Remove this Banner Ad

Back
Top