AFL 2021 AFL Grand Final (Macrae is a spud thread)

[Jonsyd1]

Dogs were lucky to beat an injured Lions team by a point a couple weeks ago, the team Melbourne beat by 5 goals the week before. I don’t really see how Melbourne are at any significant disadvantage going into this, they should be fresh.

Think I’ll also be loading up on the Dees.

 

[demon_fanatic]

Throw in the unders and Dees 1-39 and I would love this.

why do you like the unders.. 155 seems quite low on a fast deck and perfect weather, they had two shocking games on the eye during the year one in the wet too and that still made like 140

 

[54Dogs]

Dogs were lucky to beat an injured Lions team by a point a couple weeks ago, the team Melbourne beat by 5 goals the week before. I don’t really see how Melbourne are at any significant disadvantage going into this, they should be fresh.

Think I’ll also be loading up on the Dees.

These things can go both ways.

Port beat Cats by 50
Dees beat Cats by 80
Dogs beat Port by 70

I think it will be a genuine coin flip, 1/1 through the year and probably the single 2 best performances of any teams this year in both Prelims. Should be a cracker imo

 

[iluvparis]

These things can go both ways.

Port beat Cats by 50
Dees beat Cats by 80
Dogs beat Port by 70

I think it will be a genuine coin flip, 1/1 through the year and probably the single 2 best performances of any teams this year in both Prelims. Should be a cracker imo

High level benchmark Carlton played them in back to back weeks for 16 and 26 point defeats - nothing between them on that metric either.

 

[Hava Alle]

why do you like the unders.. 155 seems quite low on a fast deck and perfect weather, they had two shocking games on the eye during the year one in the wet too and that still made like 140

Perfect weather? Still 9 days out. Sideways rain today in Perth according to Gary Lyon on SEN. Praying the pressure is immense. Both good pressure teams. 145 pts round 11 and 150 pts in round 19. Added GF pressure and a close-ish game should wipe off another 10-20 pts imo.

 

[54Dogs]

Praying the pressure is immense. Both good pressure teams. 145 pts round 11 and 150 pts in round 19.

It should be, teams will both be nervous early which should pull scoring down a bit. Both good defensively

 

[demon_fanatic]

Perfect weather? Still 9 days out. Sideways rain today in Perth according to Gary Lyon on SEN. Praying the pressure is immense. Both good pressure teams. 145 pts round 11 and 150 pts in round 19. Added GF pressure and a close-ish game should wipe off another 10-20 pts imo.

perfect sunny weather 2 days either side of Saturday means should be fine even if things change by a day or two... next sign of any weather is LATE TUESDAY after the grand final

 

[HTPunter]

I aasume
Petracca, Oliver, Gawn if Dees win.
Bont, Macrae, Smith if Dogs win.

Are the standouts for Norm Smith. Really hard to see someone winning it if one of those 3 has a good game, let alone standout. You'd assume Macrae & Oliver are going to go 30+, Bont and Petracca only need 25 & 2, Smith doesn't need huge disposals and gets loose in the forward line, and Gawn is man of the moment.

However, I don't mind Lever, Viney & Dale.
Last year there was top 3 finishes and I'll be on those guys when the odds come out.
I think Dees will win - Martin will negate Gawn somewhat (or at least reduce his dominance).

I also think Fritsch is the best shout to kick 3+, win or lose, and will be on him most goals. Doggies share it, Brown should have Keath, Pickett is going to have an array of smalls around him once it hits the deck, and Fritsch can get out the back easy enough even in a loss for a couple of cheapies. If the Dees are on top he'll fill his boots though.

 

[benji21]

Doggies best 1st quarter team in the comp, The loss against melb they got jumped and couldn't come back, the win they got a nice lead in the first quarter and carried it through.
If dogs are going to win think they must win the first quarter
Going with Dogs lead every quarter at 4.20.

 

[54Dogs]

Doggies best 1st quarter team in the comp, The loss against melb they got jumped and couldn't come back, the win they got a nice lead in the first quarter and carried it through.
If dogs are going to win think they must win the first quarter
Going with Dogs lead every quarter at 4.20.

Might be worth dutching this with a Dees wire to wire, if they lead early it might be the same as the game early in the yr

 

[The_Steadier]

Looks like you can't multi it which is a shame, but max gawn

11

Max Gawn

Age

32

Ht

209cm

Wt

110kg

Pos.

Ruck

Career

Season

Last 5

D

14.1

4star

K

7.4

3star

HB

6.7

4star

CL

2.8

4star

HO

35.3

5star

D

18.5

4star

K

11.5

4star

HB

7.0

4star

CL

3.5

4star

HO

29.2

5star

D

8.4

3star

K

3.6

2star

HB

4.8

4star

CL

1.0

3star

HO

15.6

5star

to go goalless @ 1.96 topped up @ TS is a banger.

(Softcaulks haven't set a market for bailey smith

6

Bailey Smith

Age

23

Ht

185cm

Wt

86kg

Pos.

M/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

18.3

5star

K

8.5

3star

HB

9.8

5star

M

2.3

2star

T

3.8

5star

CL

2.7

4star

D

19.8

5star

K

9.6

4star

HB

10.2

5star

M

1.8

2star

T

3.2

4star

CL

3.2

4star

D

14.8

4star

K

7.6

3star

HB

7.2

5star

M

2.0

3star

T

3.4

5star

CL

1.6

4star

goals).

 

[jikost]

Think backing Gawn to go goalless is a risk not worth taking tbh. Stef Martin looked a bit cooked against Port and gave away 5 free kicks to Scott Lycett

29

Scott Lycett

Age

31

Ht

203cm

Wt

102kg

Pos.

Ruck

Career

Season

Last 5

D

12.6

3star

K

6.3

2star

HB

6.3

4star

CL

2.6

4star

HO

19.0

5star

D

11.3

3star

K

5.7

2star

HB

5.7

3star

CL

4.2

5star

HO

24.7

5star

D

8.2

2star

K

3.6

2star

HB

4.6

4star

CL

0.4

3star

HO

5.0

5star

so Max could easily pick up a cheapie near the goal square from a ruck infringement even if he doesn't score from general play. I prefer Cody Weightman

3

Cody Weightman

Age

23

Ht

179cm

Wt

75kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

6.5

2star

K

4.0

2star

HB

2.5

2star

M

2.0

2star

T

1.0

3star

G

1.0

4star

D

6.5

1star

K

4.0

1star

HB

2.5

2star

M

2.0

2star

T

1.0

2star

G

1.0

4star

D

6.5

2star

K

4.0

2star

HB

2.5

3star

M

2.0

3star

T

1.0

3star

G

1.0

4star

the little s**t to kick 2+ at better odds. He's been studying Hunter and Macrae closely and has mastered the art of drawing free kicks lowering his body at the perfect moment.

 

[54Dogs]

It's a reasonable interest bet given before last weekend he was goaless 15/24 this yr

 

[jikost]

It's a reasonable interest bet given before last weekend he was goaless 15/24 this yr

Think the odds are about right. He's hit the scoreboard 14/20 since round 3 so he's had his chances. Personally, unless their name is Gary Rohan I hate backing players to go goalless. It makes watching the match unbearable as anytime the ball goes near them you think your bet is about to be cooked. At least with a train there is hope it'll come through with 120 minutes of opportunity.... half way into the last quarter you begin to think Josh Battle isn't kicking 6+ @ $2000 but for a brief moment there...

 

[The_Steadier]

Think the odds are about right. He's hit the scoreboard 14/20 since round 3 so he's had his chances. Personally, unless their name is Gary Rohan I hate backing players to go goalless. It makes watching the match unbearable as anytime the ball goes near them you think your bet is about to be cooked. At least with a train there is hope it'll come through with 120 minutes of opportunity.... half way into the last quarter you begin to think Josh Battle isn't kicking 6+ @ $2000 but for a brief moment there...

Big GF, usually low scoring affairs when close.
He's usually kicked a snag in big dees scores (85+ points)

I think him not kicking one of the dees ~9 goals is a ~1.40 or better proposition personally as I see it being a tight GF.

 

[ShaunWDT]

Big GF, usually low scoring affairs when close.
He's usually kicked a snag in big dees scores (85+ points)

I think him not kicking one of the dees ~9 goals is a ~1.40 or better proposition personally as I see it being a tight GF.

I struggle to see them not using Gawn as a forward asset when hes just torn a side to shreds in a Prelim doing it, especially when the Dogs lack genuine quality key defenders, actually think hes a pretty good bet for multiple goals to be honest.

 

[The_Steadier]

when hes just torn a side to shreds in a Prelim doing it

He's kicked goals in thrashings and large scores, only once kicked a goal this year in a low dees score.

Sounds like you're confident the GF will be high scoring and/or a dees thrashing?

 

[2121]

Pickett my smokey for the medal 5 snags and a attempted hanger that he doesn't touch the ball and the ump calls play on.

 

[the_big_sav]

ATS
brown (10/12)
fritsch (20/23)
petrecca (18/24)
pickett (21/24)
mcdonald (15/22)
neal bullen (11/24)

weightman (14/15)
naughton (22/24)
bont (15/25)
smith (10/25)

15 dispoals
brayshaw (19/24)

20 disposals
viney (8/14)
salem (19/23)

bont (22/25)
daniel (19/24)
smith (19/25)

25 disposals
oliver (23/25)

macrea (25/25)

ive mixed these around some sgm. going on my multis this year, macrae or oliver is the leg that will miss.

 

[a_fighting_fury]

Sorry mate I heard none of that

View attachment 1235428

 

[Ohh Ok]

It’s here! Always love betting the GF as the bookies always throw a few extra markets our way. These are the markets that I’ve hit early in the week. Have also shared what I’ve gotten on with the specials TABtouch are offering.

Melbourne vs Western Bulldogs
2.5u - Viney over 21.5 disposals - $1.80 - SB
Not expecting massive numbers but comes into this one off the back of a finals campaign that boasts a 28 and 34 disposal game. A little like Macrae, the attention is all on the two gun mids in Oliver and Pertracca which frees Viney up. Has gone to the second most CBAs of any Melbourne player behind Oliver and ahead of Pertracca in the finals campaign which really highlights Melbourne’s intent to have him on the ball. Judging by where other bookies have him priced for 20+ I’m expecting this one to go out to 22.5/23.5, bet365 even put out 24.5 and although the unders has been smashed on that why it highlights their opinion of him.

5u - Duryea 15+ disposals - $1.62 - 365
Is a juicy 20/24 (83%) for the season on 15+ having cleared both times vs the Dees this year. Really should be closer to $1.20.


2u - Bailey Smith

6

Bailey Smith

Age

23

Ht

185cm

Wt

86kg

Pos.

M/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

18.3

5star

K

8.5

3star

HB

9.8

5star

M

2.3

2star

T

3.8

5star

CL

2.7

4star

D

19.8

5star

K

9.6

4star

HB

10.2

5star

M

1.8

2star

T

3.2

4star

CL

3.2

4star

D

14.8

4star

K

7.6

3star

HB

7.2

5star

M

2.0

3star

T

3.4

5star

CL

1.6

4star

AGS - $2.02 - TopSport
Think it would be absolutely rude to ignore this guys goal scoring form. The full house of doggies midfielders has allowed him to get higher up the ground.

TABtouch Specials
$50 - Macrae Norm Smith - $10 - TABtouch
The value is there and he looks to be the safest money back play. Always goes unnoticed as the attention is always with Libba and Bont, whilst Demons have been operating with defensive type wingers thus negating the impact of Smith and Treloar. Will likely have big numbers if the Dogs get the win. Need 33 disposals for cash back which is easily possible.

$50 - McDonald First Goal Scorer - $14 - TABtouch
A bit more of a lottery, but like McDonald to pop up and snag one early for us. Has been a bit quiet in recent weeks but is the second key forward for Melbourne which is important as these are the guys that have been damaging the dogs this year. Needs to get second or third goal for money back.

 

[toenail11]

Sportsbet BYO
Both teams to kick 2 goals each quarter
@6.50

And 3 goals each @91

Of course could be a grind but surely worth a go. 26 and sunny over here on Sat

 

[Jammer]

Hard to split them but I just cannot back the Dee's with this lead in.
0ne game in 28 Days ( and you could argue that only half of that was at an intense level )

I have my concerns based purely on a grossly unfair
finals fixture they could get jumped and not get back into it.

I appreciate this is hard to imagine after seeing what they did to the Cats
However I remember the Crows in their 2017 prelim. and the Swans 2014 Prelim looking just
as impressive. The following week they were done half way thru the 2nd qrt.


1 unit Dogs win $2.32 Betfair
1/2 unit Dogs to win by over 24.5 $8 Betfair

 

[Ohh Ok]

2.5u - Macrae over 32.5 disposals - $1.90 - SB
Tracks nicely at 14/25 for the season but more importantly has games of 36 and 38 vs Melbourne this year. As is always the case with Macrae, he is the one that goes unnoticed or ignored amongst a plethora of gun midfielders at the dogs. Libba and Bontempelli will likely receive attention from Harmes/Viney, whilst Dunkley has been deployed in defensive roles recently, and Smith, Treloar, and Hunter will go head to head with Brayshaw and Langdon who are both playing roles as defensive wingman. The other thing that is the beauty of Macrae is his lightning quick hands, he tends to get the handballs away in tight congestion where other players opt to ride the tackle. Definitely the midfielder that you can count on in getting a lot of the ball. Definitely can not argue with his form this finals series averaging a massive 37 disposals a game.

3.5u - Bontempelli 25+ disposals - $1.72 - SB
Happy to drop an extra unit on this one and take this instead of the 25.5 on offer. Was getting 28.5 for him earlier in the season which makes this line the absolute bottom for him, has gone over in 19/25 games this year. Was concerns around his fitness due to the knee injury sustained against Brisbane but he still managed to achieve a match high 23 CBAs against Port the following week. With that game being put to bed early, the bulldogs were able to manage their champ and give him 73% TOG, his lowest since an injured game in 2015. Along with that he’s had the week off which is massive in terms of recovery for a guy with injury concerns. Line is down due to a last four of 15, 23, 29, 20 but in the biggest game of the year I expect him going full throttle. Had 30 and 31 this year in Melbourne.

 

[Ohh Ok]

Have also decided that because it’s grand final I’m going to do three same game multis. Each multi will be of a different risk; low risk, medium risk, high risk. Have worked it so I only need to hit one to be in the profits. Hit two or three and we’re absolutely laughing. High risk multi to come later in the week.

Same Game Multis
5u - Low Risk SGM - $1.70 - TAB
- Langdon 15+, 23/23 (100%), very high TOG%
- Hunter 15+, 23/24 (96%), 27 and 26 vs Melbourne in 2021.
- Petracca 20+, 24/24 (100%), season low of 23.
- Macrae 25+, 25/25 (100%), the loose doggies mid.
- Oliver 25+, 22/24 (92%), “riskiest” leg, 33 and 38 on the dogs this year, expecting him to bring his A game and an inspired effort after his second place in the Brownlow.

2.5u - Medium Risk SGM - $3.75 - SB
- Duryea 15+, As previously mentioned.
- May 15+, excluding injured games is 16/20. Two of those misses being in the wet. Had 22 in the dry and 14 in the wet vs the Bulldogs this year. Will get to take kick ins and should be an experienced and calm head for his team.
- Weightman AGS, has been prolific for the dogs kicking 26.13 in his 15 games this season, only going goalless in one.
- Pickett AGS, has had a strong season kicking 40.28 in his 24 games. Is somewhat of a selfish player and will always have a crack at goals. Bloke oozes class and confidence so don’t expect him to shy up on the big stage.