balmainforever
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AFL 2023 Grand Final - Collingwood vs Brisbane
- Thread starter balmainforever
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- Jun 16, 2018
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$26 for Cameron and $51 for Bailey both seem like overs for the NS. Will take a punt on both.
If the Pies win then fair enough, I've done my dough.
Seems like a 50-50 match to me.
Suppose Brisbane win, is Cameron only a 1-in-13 chance of getting the NS? Or Bailey a 1-in-25 chance?
Cameron kicked 6 and 4 in his two matches against the Pies this year.
Bailey kicked 2.1 and had 18 touches against Collingwood a few weeks ago.
The NS is different to the Brownlow, inside mids still get first look but defenders, forwards, and outside mids are a chance.
---
Lake 2013 key back (20 touches)
Cyril 2015 small forward (18 touches 2 goals)
Johannisen 2016 half back (33 touches, six clangers)
Smith 2022 wingman (32 touches, 3 goals)
---
I thought both Cyril and Johannisen were very lucky to win it, but that's the NS for you.
Once they announce the judges, if I see a star forward, or a look-at-me pundit on the list, I'm loading up on Cameron / Bailey
If the Pies win then fair enough, I've done my dough.
Seems like a 50-50 match to me.
Suppose Brisbane win, is Cameron only a 1-in-13 chance of getting the NS? Or Bailey a 1-in-25 chance?
Cameron kicked 6 and 4 in his two matches against the Pies this year.
Bailey kicked 2.1 and had 18 touches against Collingwood a few weeks ago.
The NS is different to the Brownlow, inside mids still get first look but defenders, forwards, and outside mids are a chance.
---
Lake 2013 key back (20 touches)
Cyril 2015 small forward (18 touches 2 goals)
Johannisen 2016 half back (33 touches, six clangers)
Smith 2022 wingman (32 touches, 3 goals)
---
I thought both Cyril and Johannisen were very lucky to win it, but that's the NS for you.
Once they announce the judges, if I see a star forward, or a look-at-me pundit on the list, I'm loading up on Cameron / Bailey
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Cyril's first quarter was insane, he played a part in every goal kicked and the game was pretty much done at quarter time.
One of those games where you needed to see him play live to understand as opposed to the post game stats.
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* it
Collingwood -4.5
Collingwood -4.5
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so does dunkley get put on de goey?
Some stats to complement Mouncey's post regarding the Norm Smith;
Lions BOG's were:
Neale x 7 [Nth, GWS, GC, Syd, Rich, Coll, StK]
Ashcroft x 2 [Melb, Freo]**
Andrews x 2 [StK, Geel]
Daniher x 2 [Ess, Port]#
Cameron x 1 [Coll]
Coleman x 1 [Carl]#
Dunkley x 1 [Carl]
Gunston x 1 [WCE]
McCluggage x 1 [Adel]
Pies BOG's:
N.Daicos x 7 [Port, StK, Ess, Adel, GC, WB, Freo]
Mitchell x 3 [Adel, Car, Ess]
De Goey x 3 [Geel, Nth, GWS]#
J.Daicos x 1 [Geel]
Mihocek x 1 [Syd]
Adams x 1 [Rich]
Elliot x 1 [Port]
Cox x 1 [GWS]
Sidebottom x 1 [Melb]#
** - Injured
# - Best on ground in a final, from match report
Early value for the Lions include-
Coleman @ 34 SB/PB, 41 TAB/365, was clearly best on against Carlton last week, polled votes in rounds 16, 23 & 24, so very much in form. Knocking on the door.
McCluggage @ 13 SB/TAB/PB, 15 365, best on in round 22 & arguably in the QF Port win had Joe not kicked 5, likes to bob up for goals as well when he gets off the leash. Genuine contender.
Andrews @ 26 SB/365, 34 TAB/PB, best on twice late in the season, 2 votes round 17 as well, thought he was huge against Carlton last week as well. Well regarded in footy circles, and has the credentials.
Rayner @ 51 PB, 41 SB/TAB/365, Kicked 4.1 against the Pies in round 4 and although he wasn't awarded votes last night for his effort he was seen by most to be Brisbane's best by the rest of the footy world. A repeat performance in a winning side should cause enough hysteria to see him bring it home.
For the Pies, besides Nick @ 5 PB & the in form De Goey @ 5's-
Mitchell @ 34 SB/TAB/PB, best on 3 times including round 24, 31 touches against the Lions in round 23. Needs to step up on last couple of runs.
Sidebottom @ 34 SB/TAB/PB, 41 365, was huge against Melb a few weeks back, 24 touches last week & polled in a couple games early in the season. Could defiantly menace.
Crisp @ 26 SB/TAB/PB/365, in form atm, kicks huge goals, polled 2 votes in round 24 & Collingwood's 2nd best in each of the finals games according to match reports, listed on the ball last couple of games too. Among their leading players.
I'll personally stay away from bagmen Charlie, Joe & Jamie off the back of Fritsch not getting the medal after his 6 goal haul, although Jamie might tempt some @51. Golden boy Lachie Neale might be worth staying off, there's defiantly some discontent around him winning the Brownlow, as possibly a result of N.Daicos missing games. Centreman Dunkley @ 13 PB, 12 SB, is in form atm & among the Lion's best in both finals. The temptation to reward the affable and 'hard done by' young N.Daicos @ 5 PB could reach an all time high, especially if he plays anywhere near his best. He was possibly Collingwood's best in his one encounter with the Lions back in Round 4. Smart money option if you're leaning towards the Pies imo.
Also jumped on the BetR promo for the Lions @100, just laid 1U each on Andrews, McCluggage, Coleman, Dunkley, Rayner and N.Daicos for some coverage, will do a couple of multi's after the teams are announced.
Good luck punting this Saturday everyone!
Lions BOG's were:
Neale x 7 [Nth, GWS, GC, Syd, Rich, Coll, StK]
Ashcroft x 2 [Melb, Freo]**
Andrews x 2 [StK, Geel]
Daniher x 2 [Ess, Port]#
Cameron x 1 [Coll]
Coleman x 1 [Carl]#
Dunkley x 1 [Carl]
Gunston x 1 [WCE]
McCluggage x 1 [Adel]
Pies BOG's:
N.Daicos x 7 [Port, StK, Ess, Adel, GC, WB, Freo]
Mitchell x 3 [Adel, Car, Ess]
De Goey x 3 [Geel, Nth, GWS]#
J.Daicos x 1 [Geel]
Mihocek x 1 [Syd]
Adams x 1 [Rich]
Elliot x 1 [Port]
Cox x 1 [GWS]
Sidebottom x 1 [Melb]#
** - Injured
# - Best on ground in a final, from match report
Early value for the Lions include-
Coleman @ 34 SB/PB, 41 TAB/365, was clearly best on against Carlton last week, polled votes in rounds 16, 23 & 24, so very much in form. Knocking on the door.
McCluggage @ 13 SB/TAB/PB, 15 365, best on in round 22 & arguably in the QF Port win had Joe not kicked 5, likes to bob up for goals as well when he gets off the leash. Genuine contender.
Andrews @ 26 SB/365, 34 TAB/PB, best on twice late in the season, 2 votes round 17 as well, thought he was huge against Carlton last week as well. Well regarded in footy circles, and has the credentials.
Rayner @ 51 PB, 41 SB/TAB/365, Kicked 4.1 against the Pies in round 4 and although he wasn't awarded votes last night for his effort he was seen by most to be Brisbane's best by the rest of the footy world. A repeat performance in a winning side should cause enough hysteria to see him bring it home.
For the Pies, besides Nick @ 5 PB & the in form De Goey @ 5's-
Mitchell @ 34 SB/TAB/PB, best on 3 times including round 24, 31 touches against the Lions in round 23. Needs to step up on last couple of runs.
Sidebottom @ 34 SB/TAB/PB, 41 365, was huge against Melb a few weeks back, 24 touches last week & polled in a couple games early in the season. Could defiantly menace.
Crisp @ 26 SB/TAB/PB/365, in form atm, kicks huge goals, polled 2 votes in round 24 & Collingwood's 2nd best in each of the finals games according to match reports, listed on the ball last couple of games too. Among their leading players.
I'll personally stay away from bagmen Charlie, Joe & Jamie off the back of Fritsch not getting the medal after his 6 goal haul, although Jamie might tempt some @51. Golden boy Lachie Neale might be worth staying off, there's defiantly some discontent around him winning the Brownlow, as possibly a result of N.Daicos missing games. Centreman Dunkley @ 13 PB, 12 SB, is in form atm & among the Lion's best in both finals. The temptation to reward the affable and 'hard done by' young N.Daicos @ 5 PB could reach an all time high, especially if he plays anywhere near his best. He was possibly Collingwood's best in his one encounter with the Lions back in Round 4. Smart money option if you're leaning towards the Pies imo.
Also jumped on the BetR promo for the Lions @100, just laid 1U each on Andrews, McCluggage, Coleman, Dunkley, Rayner and N.Daicos for some coverage, will do a couple of multi's after the teams are announced.
Good luck punting this Saturday everyone!
This happens in Brownlow too though in isolation, play the Norm Smith out 200 times and inside mids will win more often as they are the better players usually.
One thing that is fairly consistent is all but 2 winners in last 20 seasons have had a 3 vote game in the Brownlow that year. (Hodge & Lake exceptions)
Its a pretty easy award to narrow down a list of contenders, some may appear value but really the chance they actually win when their team does is so slim.
The list for Collingwood is much smaller than the list for Brisbane given the wide variety of goal kickers who could jag 4+ for Brisbane.
fpm84
Brownlow Medallist
Crisp @26 (Dabble)
Bailey @34 (B365)
Coleman @67 (Dabble)
Bailey @34 (B365)
Coleman @67 (Dabble)
moore 34
mitchell 34
elliott 51
it's a media voted award, they wont vote anything too crazy but it's fun to dream
mitchell 34
elliott 51
it's a media voted award, they wont vote anything too crazy but it's fun to dream
I'll be having a nibble at Isaac Quaynor @ 81s. Will be given a big task defensively, if he can win his matchup, chime in a few intercept marks and provide his usually dash and beautiful ball use he'll be in with a big shot for a media voted award.
Yeh I'd be avoiding De Goey at such short odds.. Dunkley is such a great defensive mid.. De Goey will have his moments but I don't think will go crazy with Dunks on him.. Josh Daicos could be a chance if he starts getting hot on the wing and kicks a few.. he's due for a game with a goal or multiples... Also agree on Crisp and Tom Mitchell being great chances at their odds due to the heat on DE Goey...
the value is gone out of Coleman due to his breakout game for the mainstream to see.. Pies will be all over him... definately value in Pies Quaynor and Moore if they start taking huge intercept marks...
I'll also take Ginnivan at around 140-1 if he somehow gets a start.. loves the huge occasion (anzac medalist) and showed what he can do in a full game late season vs Essendon (albeit)
the value is gone out of Coleman due to his breakout game for the mainstream to see.. Pies will be all over him... definately value in Pies Quaynor and Moore if they start taking huge intercept marks...
I'll also take Ginnivan at around 140-1 if he somehow gets a start.. loves the huge occasion (anzac medalist) and showed what he can do in a full game late season vs Essendon (albeit)
i really dont think lions have anyone that can even keep up with de goey tbh, hes not going to be stationary at the stoppage for dunkley to hang to him, and outside of dunks the lions mids arent exactly noted big men tacklers. hes gonna blitz through them every stoppage imo
Frampton training up forward in match simulation according to SEN
Lets hope its only simulation , Selection will be interesting. Adams left track early but still has Thursday to prove himself . Ginnivin could be a likely starter Saturday .
Last edited:
Hava Alle
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SGM free hit on TAB $50 max.
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Can’t go past the Pies with that crowd factor. If they are down at 3qt I will hammer the live ML
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Pies are 16-0 this season when leading at 3QT
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I meant if Collingwood aren’t leading at 3QT I will be tempted to live bet them. May just put some on the Pies to be trailing at HT/3QT and win bets instead
balmainforever
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Not quite a free hit.
Bonus bet back if it loses.
GROTTO
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Min leg $1.10 and must combine for $2 or more. TAB
AFL Grand Final Same Game Multi Special: *Bonus Bet capped at stake up to $50. Each leg must be placed on markets in Same Game Multi (SGM). Minimum leg price $1.10 & combined SGM price $2. Available once per person on first eligible losing standalone SGM placed online on the AFL Grand Final game played 30/09/2023. No multi, bonus, cash out, partial cash out or live bets qualify. Promo T&Cs apply.
GROTTO
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Was LIVE Norm Smith Betting on last year during the game?
I was too drunk at QT at the GF BBQ I attended last year to know.
I was too drunk at QT at the GF BBQ I attended last year to know.
Adams officially ruled out by pies GM.
I really can't see pies losing this, it just seems like it's going to be their flag from a long way out. Everyone has bought in to the mcrea way.
Lions are 1 from their last 15 at the MCG, and that was against Melbourne in a final last year where it felt like Melbourne threw it away. It will be about 85 thousand collingwood supporters out of 100, Brisbane are just going to be absolutely shell shocked.
The blues absolutely pantsed them with their pressure in the first quarter last week and the pies will be able to do that for a lot longer.
Apart from Lachie neale their midfield drops away very quickly.
I think $1.75 for pies is an absolute gift, and I'm going to have a good go at pies 40+ at $6
Unfortunately for the neutral supporter I think this will be a disappointing grand final.
Would be happy for Brisbane to prove me wrong and show some ticker
Lions are 1 from their last 15 at the MCG, and that was against Melbourne in a final last year where it felt like Melbourne threw it away. It will be about 85 thousand collingwood supporters out of 100, Brisbane are just going to be absolutely shell shocked.
The blues absolutely pantsed them with their pressure in the first quarter last week and the pies will be able to do that for a lot longer.
Apart from Lachie neale their midfield drops away very quickly.
I think $1.75 for pies is an absolute gift, and I'm going to have a good go at pies 40+ at $6
Unfortunately for the neutral supporter I think this will be a disappointing grand final.
Would be happy for Brisbane to prove me wrong and show some ticker
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