2023 - A year of regression before the final ascent...

[mightymouse75]

If we are doing ok with injury next year we should be up to it in finals again.
Lobb was injured for a chunk of the year and 30 goals isn't anything elite

 

[blue shark]

If we are doing ok with injury next year we should be up to it in finals again.
Lobb was injured for a chunk of the year and 30 goals isn't anything elite

Which clubs in the bottom 8 are seriously going to wrestle a club out of finals?
Carlton, Port?
Most finals contenders have better lists, or were active.
Sydney could be broken and the Buddy deal could really flatline.
While the bottom 4 looks to have some serious competition.

 

[Purple Suit]

Which clubs in the bottom 8 are seriously going to wrestle a club out of finals?
Carlton, Port?
Most finals contenders have better lists, or were active.
Sydney could be broken and the Buddy deal could really flatline.
While the bottom 4 looks to have some serious competition.

I recon Gold Coast could be a chance too.

Saints imploding, all though Ross Lyon would at least get effort or revolt if his methods are out dated.

Collingwood could have the 2nd year blues & start losing close games.

A lot of unknowns. Geelong is anchient & might lose the fire / get injured a lot but I wouldn’t write them off.

 

[FreoRicci]

Which clubs in the bottom 8 are seriously going to wrestle a club out of finals?
Carlton, Port?
Most finals contenders have better lists, or were active.
Sydney could be broken and the Buddy deal could really flatline.
While the bottom 4 looks to have some serious competition.

Carlton and Port, exactly.
Don’t forget Richmond. Massive midfield acquisitions.
Bulldogs could slide. Melbourne with that forward line, are in trouble

 

[greatgatsby]

Carlton definite improvers, Gold Coast too. Richmond might improve, but if so it'll be a dead cat bounce. Port's acquisitions look good on paper but I suspect they might have chemistry problems. Can't get a grip on the Bulldogs and Dees, chance they might both slide. Six teams no chance of finals.

 

[myfreodom]

Carlton definite improvers

Said every single year for the past decade. Will it finally come true?

 

[CapitalA]

I think there's much more chance of us missing Meek next year than saying I wish Lobbster was still here.

Doubt it, we will have Jackson to fill in if Darcy gets injured. We only needed Meek because Lobb didn't wanna ruck and/or tabs was injured so he was our only experienced kpf.

 

[greatgatsby]

Said every single year for the past decade. Will it finally come true?

You would think so - the talent is there for a top four finish. The worrying issues from their POV are that they lack on-field leadership and the coach may also be out of his depth at that level.

 

[theGav56]

I think a big part of how we go next year will be based on the improvement of other teams. I don't necessarily think we'll regress, but other teams will improve. I do agree though that 2024 will be the year we should have high expectations. I think 2023 will be a more even season. So much luck with injury is needed. Any given team is only a few injuries to key personnel away from having a bad year.

For 2023

• I expect Port to improve a lot - they had a bad year with injury and just bad luck after a slow start. I still think they're a top team and their inclusions in trade week will help enormously.
• I expect Richmond to again challenge strongly. With Martin being fit and their trade inclusions, they'll be a strong chance.
• I expect Carlton to be around the mark again as well with their expected development.
• I think the dogs will improve. They've lost Dunkley, their best mid, but i think Liam Jones will strengthen them down back, and Lobb will obviously help and allow them to put Naughton down back a bit when they're in trouble. Even if they dont make the finals, they'll still need respect and be tough to beat on their day.
• Adelaide showed to be dangerous this year. At home they'll be a handful.
• Gold Coast will be mid range and take a few scalps, especially with King back up forward.
• Melbourne, Geelong, Collingwood, Sydney will again be top teams
• I dont know how Essendon will go. They could really challenge if Scott gets them humming, or could go the other way for a year. Still I think they have some upside.

So that 10-12 teams (including us) i think that could not necessarily challenge for the flag, but at least be hard to play on any given day and should be aiming strongly for finals. I think the easy beats will be the Hawks, Giants, North, Saints and the Eagles, though Derbies are always tricky (and i think the Eagles will improve a little next year with less injuries etc).

Going to be an interesting year, and our new ins will certainly take time to gel i would think.

All good, but the competition may as well go into hibernation until Geelong realistically go into decline. And that's a little way off.

 

[freo1]

All good, but the competition may as well go into hibernation until Geelong realistically go into decline. And that's a little way off.

Geelong are certainly amazing, but only a few bad injuries away from being brought back. they'll still be a top team, but we still beat them on their own dung hill this year, Hawkins has just had surgery on a foot injury, Selwood retiring, Dangerfield and Cameron are a little injury prone. Like i say I think they'll be a leader of the comp, but they wont be untouchable.

 

[dominguez]

All good, but the competition may as well go into hibernation until Geelong realistically go into decline. And that's a little way off.

It can turn pretty quickly. Melbourne from the 2021 GF until round 10 this year looked unstoppable and multiple flags looked to be on the cards then the wheels fell off.

I won't be surprised if Geelong miss the GF next year. I'm not betting that'll happen, but won't be surprised.

 

[Purple Suit]

Geelong are certainly amazing, but only a few bad injuries away from being brought back. they'll still be a top team, but we still beat them on their own dung hill this year, Hawkins has just had surgery on a foot injury, Selwood retiring, Dangerfield and Cameron are a little injury prone. Like i say I think they'll be a leader of the comp, but they wont be untouchable.

They are bloody old too. Just as our team in naturally coming into their prime & should improve, the cats are over the hill and will naturally get slower or more injured as a group.

The stars aligned for them last season, I doubt it happens again but their home cheat ground gives them some easy wins so probably still make finals.

 

[blue shark]

That was similar to The Cats flag in 2007. Then the Hawks stole one in 08.
Sure if their bigger mature bodies cope, but it’s always harder once you become
the hunted.
A different gameplan, mindset could unravel their plans.
One thing is for sure two flags in a row have been won in the midfield with one
team totally capitulated.
Our boys mindset isn’t that weak, and the only. guy to standup was Worner.
We won’t be bullied, and it’s why the Cats/Hawks rivalry was good footy.

 

[WilloTree]

All good, but the competition may as well go into hibernation until Geelong realistically go into decline. And that's a little way off.

 

[Bigger]

That was similar to The Cats flag in 2007. Then the Hawks stole one in 08.
Sure if their bigger mature bodies cope, but it’s always harder once you become
the hunted.
A different gameplan, mindset could unravel their plans.
One thing is for sure two flags in a row have been won in the midfield with one
team totally capitulated.
Our boys mindset isn’t that weak, and the only. guy to standup was Worner.
We won’t be bullied, and it’s why the Cats/Hawks rivalry was good footy.

99 times out of a hundred I agree with everything you say but this time you have the purple specs on. We got bullied by the Pies.

 

[blue shark]

99 times out of a hundred I agree with everything you say but this time you have the purple specs on. We got bullied by the Pies.

This year for sure, but you can make a case for O’Meara, Jackson and even new recruit Fyfe to strengthen the midfield next year.
Then I don’t think anybody is going to intimidate Erasmus
I think we can learn a lot from Collingwood, most teams we can at least beat once a year.

 

[theGav56]

It can turn pretty quickly. Melbourne from the 2021 GF until round 10 this year looked unstoppable and multiple flags looked to be on the cards then the wheels fell off.

I won't be surprised if Geelong miss the GF next year. I'm not betting that'll happen, but won't be surprised.

I don't bet (okay I offered a Bintang bet with wako) but Geelong will be a comfortable favourite for the flag. Do you think otherwise?

Their list management has done an incredible job and they have emerging depth with development in them ready to step in as required. They have just brought in 3 ready to go young players in the trade period and will add a top 10 pick.

The idea that they are dependant on Hawkins, Dangerfield and others is pretty ignorant. Injuries impact all clubs but Geelong look as ready as any to cover that eventuality.

 

[theGav56]

View attachment 1539836

Incredible game and brilliant result. Outstanding game from Acres probably the key, plus Lobb's work forward.

 

[Bigger]

Darcy Tucker

13

Darcy Tucker

Age

29

Ht

184cm

Wt

83kg

Pos.

D/M

Career

Season

Last 5

D

15.9

4star

K

8.3

3star

HB

7.6

5star

M

3.3

3star

T

3.3

5star

MG

239.7

4star

D

14.0

3star

K

8.5

3star

HB

5.5

3star

M

2.6

3star

T

3.3

4star

MG

240.5

4star

D

14.4

4star

K

8.0

3star

HB

6.4

4star

M

3.0

3star

T

2.8

5star

MG

234.8

4star

also had the best game of his life in that one.

 

[WilloTree]

Incredible game and brilliant result. Outstanding game from Acres probably the key, plus Lobb's work forward.

I'd expect a few 'ins' from that game.

Out: Mundy, Lobb, Acres, Logue
In (from): Chapman, Taberner, Fyfe, Darcy, Young, O'Meara, Jackson, Corbett.

 

[Wobbly Punt]

I don't bet (okay I offered a Bintang bet with wako) but Geelong will be a comfortable favourite for the flag. Do you think otherwise?

Their list management has done an incredible job and they have emerging depth with development in them ready to step in as required. They have just brought in 3 ready to go young players in the trade period and will add a top 10 pick.

The idea that they are dependant on Hawkins, Dangerfield and others is pretty ignorant. Injuries impact all clubs but Geelong look as ready as any to cover that eventuality.

I agree with the thrust of this but also think that when Hawkins is no longer there, they will drop off very quickly. Whilst they'll retain Cameron, they won't be able to replace Hawkin's output at the price he costs them now or get even close to it.

Hawkins is the only one I look at where there isn't already 1 or 2 guys on the list or even already in the B22 where you can point to them and say "he'll slide in nicely behind XXX."

No argument about the rest though...of the older boys...
Dangerfield - replaceable, and pretty easily so. (Atkins, Parfitt, Bruhn, Knevitt Pick 7 etc)
Selwood - harder to replace but still doable but the replacement will cost more eventually. (Atkins, Parfitt, Bruhn, Knevitt, Pick 7 etc)
Duncan - replaceable. (Guthrie, Bowes, O'Connor and others)
Tuohey - replaceable (same list as Duncan).
Smith - replaceable albeit harder than some others on the list (Close, Holmes, Whyte etc also some from the Dangerfield/Selwood list).
Rohan - already replaced (Henry, Dempsey, you, me, my daughter, that poodle down the road).
Stanley - very replaceable (Ceglar, Neale, some other stiff they make good enough).

Yes they have Esava but he's not going to get close to Hawkins output and he's the only one looking likely. Anyone they can bring in to get Hawkins output is going to cost them a truckload. He'll be the one that causes the largest immediate drop-off I reckon. The rest has been really well covered by their list team but they're also easier gaps to fill.

 

[Kapow!!!]

99 times out of a hundred I agree with everything you say but this time you have the purple specs on. We got bullied by the Pies.

The biggest thing I took from that semi was the striking similarities it shared with the Geelong vs Brisbane and Sydney games in the following 2 weeks...only one of those games did the physically and tactically dominated teams manage to fight it out and, when given chances, keep themselves almost in the game. I think there's a bit of spine to this group that, for the first time, doesn't have me instinctively thinking the worst.

Realistically I don't expect us to improve all that much and infact may slip due to those aforementioned sides improving and our slight list restructure. But I don't necessarily think we're going to be quite as inexplicably awful despite having the talent as we were under Connolly. I think there's a bit too much ticker with this group to completely suck. If we slide it's because we genuinely were overtaken.

 

[theGav56]

I'd expect a few 'ins' from that game.

Out: Mundy, Lobb, Acres, Logue
In (from): Chapman, Taberner, Fyfe, Darcy, Young, O'Meara, Jackson, Corbett.

We did have a good season. But there's more than a little irony in us talking about Geelong being dependent on Hawkins when we look like being utterly reliant on two of the least reliable players on our list over the past two seasons in Fyfe and Taberner.

Our trade season brings some optimism in the form of Jackson. I think Geelong have done a bit better than that personally.

 

[theGav56]

I agree with the thrust of this but also think that when Hawkins is no longer there, they will drop off very quickly. Whilst they'll retain Cameron, they won't be able to replace Hawkin's output at the price he costs them now or get even close to it.

Hawkins is the only one I look at where there isn't already 1 or 2 guys on the list or even already in the B22 where you can point to them and say "he'll slide in nicely behind XXX."

No argument about the rest though...of the older boys...
Dangerfield - replaceable, and pretty easily so. (Atkins, Parfitt, Bruhn, Knevitt Pick 7 etc)
Selwood - harder to replace but still doable but the replacement will cost more eventually. (Atkins, Parfitt, Bruhn, Knevitt, Pick 7 etc)
Duncan - replaceable. (Guthrie, Bowes, O'Connor and others)
Tuohey - replaceable (same list as Duncan).
Smith - replaceable albeit harder than some others on the list (Close, Holmes, Whyte etc also some from the Dangerfield/Selwood list).
Rohan - already replaced (Henry, Dempsey, you, me, my daughter, that poodle down the road).
Stanley - very replaceable (Ceglar, Neale, some other stiff they make good enough).

Yes they have Esava but he's not going to get close to Hawkins output and he's the only one looking likely. Anyone they can bring in to get Hawkins output is going to cost them a truckload. He'll be the one that causes the largest immediate drop-off I reckon. The rest has been really well covered by their list team but they're also easier gaps to fill.

The Geelong board see Neale as a forward not a Stanley replacement. Will wait and see on that one. They could also elect to draft Jeffries at pick 7 rather than a mid. But I think Hawkins has 2 more seasons, and we would dream of having a forward as influential as Cameron.

 

[SiempreFreo]

Been home sick, so I've watched 2022 games from Rds 1-6. First thoughts? all our Departers are quite a loss.

They played at least serviceable, at best very good games. And goals win games, so how not to slide in 2023 without Lobb and his season tally of 36.24?

Then I had second thoughts, and cheered up.

Did some highly sophisticated (!) goal analysis to show our Mozzie fleet is at least more accurate on goal than the Lobbster. Adding goals+behinds to get accuracy %, Lobb was least accurate at 60%, same as Sonny Walters. No surprise Tabs was tops at over 74% (23.8 from just 13 games). But Fantastic Freddy not far behind at 69% accuracy (28.14 from 22 games compared to Rory's 21) and noble Shoota was 63% accurate over 23 games.

True, Lobb's big crustacean claws took 60 potential goal-grabs compared with Shoota's 49 and Freddy's 42. But give the non-Lobbs some more and better delivery, and add Amiss, Jackson, and hopefully Corbett, and Lobb's your no-account Uncle!

For better delivery, I'm looking at JOM and Fyfey, maybe also Jackson. And btw, the somewhat maligned (though not by me) Brandon Walker is an exquisite deliverer of low bullet passes into the F50...