2023 - A year of regression before the final ascent...

[WilloTree]

We did have a good season. But there's more than a little irony in us talking about Geelong being dependent on Hawkins when we look like being utterly reliant on two of the least reliable players on our list over the past two seasons in Fyfe and Taberner.

Our trade season brings some optimism in the form of Jackson. I think Geelong have done a bit better than that personally.

I'm certainly not in the camp that says we are reliant on Fyfe and Taberner. They contributed about half a season between them this year.

I'd say if we're talking about our most important players, it's Brayshaw and Serong for mine.

 

[theGav56]

I'm certainly not in the camp that says we are reliant on Fyfe and Taberner. They contributed about half a season between them this year.

I'd say if we're talking about our most important players, it's Brayshaw and Serong for mine.

Talking about forwards there Willo but agree about the young leaders.

 

[poshman]

We did have a good season. But there's more than a little irony in us talking about Geelong being dependent on Hawkins when we look like being utterly reliant on two of the least reliable players on our list over the past two seasons in Fyfe and Taberner.

Our trade season brings some optimism in the form of Jackson. I think Geelong have done a bit better than that personally.

Agree and expecting Amiss to go from barely any impact to needing to kick 25-30 goals.

A lot of big questions next season. We will have a more difficult draw and Carlton, Port and Saints will be pushing up the ladder. Dogs will be improved as well. Although their list balance will be interesting.

 

[blue shark]

I agree with the thrust of this but also think that when Hawkins is no longer there, they will drop off very quickly. Whilst they'll retain Cameron, they won't be able to replace Hawkin's output at the price he costs them now or get even close to it.

Hawkins is the only one I look at where there isn't already 1 or 2 guys on the list or even already in the B22 where you can point to them and say "he'll slide in nicely behind XXX."

No argument about the rest though...of the older boys...
Dangerfield - replaceable, and pretty easily so. (Atkins, Parfitt, Bruhn, Knevitt Pick 7 etc)
Selwood - harder to replace but still doable but the replacement will cost more eventually. (Atkins, Parfitt, Bruhn, Knevitt, Pick 7 etc)
Duncan - replaceable. (Guthrie, Bowes, O'Connor and others)
Tuohey - replaceable (same list as Duncan).
Smith - replaceable albeit harder than some others on the list (Close, Holmes, Whyte etc also some from the Dangerfield/Selwood list).
Rohan - already replaced (Henry, Dempsey, you, me, my daughter, that poodle down the road).
Stanley - very replaceable (Ceglar, Neale, some other stiff they make good enough).

Yes they have Esava but he's not going to get close to Hawkins output and he's the only one looking likely. Anyone they can bring in to get Hawkins output is going to cost them a truckload. He'll be the one that causes the largest immediate drop-off I reckon. The rest has been really well covered by their list team but they're also easier gaps to fill.

Shannon Neale? Structurally they will be ok.

 

[WilloTree]

Talking about forwards there Willo but agree about the young leaders.

Oh, most important forwards are Taberner and Schultz, and it's not even close.

I'm hoping Amiss and Freddy can close the gap a bit. Some good signs from both of them last season

Fingers crossed.

 

[blue shark]

The other side of the coin is which players are set to take the competition by storm?
The players in that 50 game bracket, which we have quite a few.
The only downside I saw this year was when we tried to slow the play centre and forward.
That slow play and bombing to Lobb must be addressed, but if we take the game on more lookout.
The addition of O'Meara, Jackson, also gives us options in the middle, which includes both attacking
or defensive plans.
The overall balance has been addressed, we lost one forward and gained two.

 

[jusjoshin]

The other side of the coin is which players are set to take the competition by storm?
The players in that 50 game bracket, which we have quite a few.
The only downside I saw this year was when we tried to slow the play centre and forward.
That slow play and bombing to Lobb must be addressed, but if we take the game on more lookout.
The addition of O'Meara, Jackson, also gives us options in the middle, which includes both attacking
or defensive plans.
The overall balance has been addressed, we lost one forward and gained two.

Won't be bombing it to Lobb any more...

 

[WilloTree]

Won't be bombing it to Lobb any more...

Bombing it to Walters?

 

[Purpletown]

Bombing it to Walters?

Hopefully Sonny will have a growth spurt over the off season then.

 

[Bigger]

Been home sick, so I've watched 2022 games from Rds 1-6. First thoughts? all our Departers are quite a loss.

They played at least serviceable, at best very good games. And goals win games, so how not to slide in 2023 without Lobb and his season tally of 36.24?

Then I had second thoughts, and cheered up.

Did some highly sophisticated (!) goal analysis to show our Mozzie fleet is at least more accurate on goal than the Lobbster. Adding goals+behinds to get accuracy %, Lobb was least accurate at 60%, same as Sonny Walters. No surprise Tabs was tops at over 74% (23.8 from just 13 games). But Fantastic Freddy not far behind at 69% accuracy (28.14 from 22 games compared to Rory's 21) and noble Shoota was 63% accurate over 23 games.

True, Lobb's big crustacean claws took 60 potential goal-grabs compared with Shoota's 49 and Freddy's 42. But give the non-Lobbs some more and better delivery, and add Amiss, Jackson, and hopefully Corbett, and Lobb's your no-account Uncle!

For better delivery, I'm looking at JOM and Fyfey, maybe also Jackson. And btw, the somewhat maligned (though not by me) Brandon Walker is an exquisite deliverer of low bullet passes into the F50...

After shitting the bed in the semi and taking out more an entire stable than just the one mare, most people are going to lose their minds when I suggest that one thing I would like to see is the somewhat maligned Brandon Walker play further up the ground.

He's fast, tough, can run all day, has a positively goosfying sidestep and shimmy and he delivers well.

 

[SHill Shall]

Oh, most important forwards are Taberner and Schultz, and it's not even close.

I'm hoping Amiss and Freddy can close the gap a bit. Some good signs from both of them last season

Fingers crossed.

Providing he stays healthy, I can easily see Amiss averaging 1.5 goals a game over 20 games. Especially with our improved midfield and ruck combo.

 

[Wobbly Punt]

Shannon Neale? Structurally they will be ok.

Structurally I agree. Structurally so were we when Pav went, we had Tabs and then augmented that with Lobb...its not just a structural issue, it's about output as well.

I did think of Neale and mentioned Esava but don't see either getting near the impact that Hawkins has. The bigger point I was making is that even if they do get to his level, and together or individually they might, they won't be doing it at the absolute massive bargain Hawkins is giving Geelong at the moment.
Its not so much that the production of Hawkins can't be replaced, its losing the combination of the output at his coin that will cause the biggest shift. What he is being paid is ridiculously low for what he provides. He's apparently on less than half of what Lobb was on for us this past season. Whately on SEN went on about it a few times this year. It's a massive advantage for them from a list management and culture point of view. It helped them keep the Cameron cost down too.

Not every impact KPF on the market will be a keen farmer though and if they develop Esava or Neale in to the impact players that Cameron and Hawkins are, they'll be paying much more for them which then makes the rest of the things they've done this year much harder.

It doesn't make what Geelong has done from a list management point of view any less impressive either. Taking advantage of your advantages is not easy and they're making the most of them which is to their credit. Counter that with the advantages Essendon have for example. Despite having profile, recruiting and money advantages over most of the league, they've managed them about as well as a crack addict would manage a briefcase of found cash.

 

[freo1997]

Tabs or Treacy have to kick 40 plus.

Just need one of them to have a good year.

 

[Purpleheart_56]

Structurally I agree. Structurally so were we when Pav went, we had Tabs and then augmented that with Lobb...its not just a structural issue, it's about output as well.

I did think of Neale and mentioned Esava but don't see either getting near the impact that Hawkins has. The bigger point I was making is that even if they do get to his level, and together or individually they might, they won't be doing it at the absolute massive bargain Hawkins is giving Geelong at the moment.
Its not so much that the production of Hawkins can't be replaced, its losing the combination of the output at his coin that will cause the biggest shift. What he is being paid is ridiculously low for what he provides. He's apparently on less than half of what Lobb was on for us this past season. Whately on SEN went on about it a few times this year. It's a massive advantage for them from a list management and culture point of view. It helped them keep the Cameron cost down too.

Not every impact KPF on the market will be a keen farmer though and if they develop Esava or Neale in to the impact players that Cameron and Hawkins are, they'll be paying much more for them which then makes the rest of the things they've done this year much harder.

It doesn't make what Geelong has done from a list management point of view any less impressive either. Taking advantage of your advantages is not easy and they're making the most of them which is to their credit. Counter that with the advantages Essendon have for example. Despite having profile, recruiting and money advantages over most of the league, they've managed them about as well as a crack addict would manage a briefcase of found cash.

How things are at Geelong,very soon players are going to start PAYING, just to play for Geelong.

 

[SiempreFreo]

After shitting the bed in the semi and taking out more an entire stable than just the one mare, most people are going to lose their minds when I suggest that one thing I would like to see is the somewhat maligned Brandon Walker play further up the ground.

He's fast, tough, can run all day, has a positively goosfying sidestep and shimmy and he delivers well.

In fact that's the most mindful thing I've read all day.

Semi aside, what I'm noticeing in my re-watch of season 2022 is how quick and deft Brandon is by hand and foot, whether creating play or recovering (usually well) from a mini-blunder. Light on his feet that one.

(And the semi, so what, our fortunes weren't ever going to rest on his teenage shoulders. Our good midfield were in fact outbodied and outplayed. End of.)

 

[theGav56]

The other side of the coin is which players are set to take the competition by storm?
The players in that 50 game bracket, which we have quite a few.
The only downside I saw this year was when we tried to slow the play centre and forward.
That slow play and bombing to Lobb must be addressed, but if we take the game on more lookout.
The addition of O'Meara, Jackson, also gives us options in the middle, which includes both attacking
or defensive plans.
The overall balance has been addressed, we lost one forward and gained two.

Despite having beaten Geelong I think we need to improve significantly to compete with them because they have improved over the draft period.

We have gone sideways with a fuzzy asterisk next to Jackson. Jaeger will be handy given the midfielders we've lost.

You highlighted Taberner and Schultz as our most important forwards. Schultz may make their best 22 I guess. And I am sure any club would welcome Amiss to their list.

I don't see Geelong as being in any kind of inevitable decline. If we are going to get to a Premiership we need to take it from them. I think that is a significant justification for going hard at Jackson as a potential weapon for us.

 

[theGav56]

Structurally I agree. Structurally so were we when Pav went, we had Tabs and then augmented that with Lobb...its not just a structural issue, it's about output as well.

I did think of Neale and mentioned Esava but don't see either getting near the impact that Hawkins has. The bigger point I was making is that even if they do get to his level, and together or individually they might, they won't be doing it at the absolute massive bargain Hawkins is giving Geelong at the moment.
Its not so much that the production of Hawkins can't be replaced, its losing the combination of the output at his coin that will cause the biggest shift. What he is being paid is ridiculously low for what he provides. He's apparently on less than half of what Lobb was on for us this past season. Whately on SEN went on about it a few times this year. It's a massive advantage for them from a list management and culture point of view. It helped them keep the Cameron cost down too.

Not every impact KPF on the market will be a keen farmer though and if they develop Esava or Neale in to the impact players that Cameron and Hawkins are, they'll be paying much more for them which then makes the rest of the things they've done this year much harder.

It doesn't make what Geelong has done from a list management point of view any less impressive either. Taking advantage of your advantages is not easy and they're making the most of them which is to their credit. Counter that with the advantages Essendon have for example. Despite having profile, recruiting and money advantages over most of the league, they've managed them about as well as a crack addict would manage a briefcase of found cash.

We have advantages of our own. Chapman, O'Driscoll and Amiss all have significant personal/family reasons for being long termers for us for starters irrespective of whether they want to be farmers or not. They may want to be SpudShed franchise holders though.

If our club's success is going to be determined by being unable to match what other clubs provide as off-field support then that's on us, and disappointing.

 

[BStaff17]

In fact that's the most mindful thing I've read all day.

Semi aside, what I'm noticeing in my re-watch of season 2022 is how quick and deft Brandon is by hand and foot, whether creating play or recovering (usually well) from a mini-blunder. Light on his feet that one.

(And the semi, so what, our fortunes weren't ever going to rest on his teenage shoulders. Our good midfield were in fact outbodied and outplayed. End of.)

Walker was still 19 years old all of last season.

Quite incredible when you think about it as it felt like he is 21-22.

 

[theGav56]

Walker was still 19 years old all of last season.

Quite incredible when you think about it as it felt like he is 21-22.

It is incredible. What's his ceiling? Going to be great to find out.

 

[Purple Suit]

Despite having beaten Geelong I think we need to improve significantly to compete with them because they have improved over the draft period.

We have gone sideways with a fuzzy asterisk next to Jackson. Jaeger will be handy given the midfielders we've lost.

You highlighted Taberner and Schultz as our most important forwards. Schultz may make their best 22 I guess. And I am sure any club would welcome Amiss to their list.

I don't see Geelong as being in any kind of inevitable decline. If we are going to get to a Premiership we need to take it from them. I think that is a significant justification for going hard at Jackson as a potential weapon for us.

You are forgetting about Geelong's natural arc. They averaged 28 years, so all the old timers that didn't retire are going to get slower & more injury prone. Sure, they added a bit of talent but with less hunger and a bit less luck I can see them not getting close next year. Think Richmond 2022.

On the flip side, our team's natural arc is to get faster and stronger. If we call the trade period even, then we get improvement from the extra year all of our stars get closer to their prime. Fyfe & Tabs would struggle to have worse seasons so think things could easily see us go past Geelong. I won't be losing sleep over them, although there will no doubt be another challenger or three to contend with if we want to pinch one early.

 

[theGav56]

You are forgetting about Geelong's natural arc. They averaged 28 years, so all the old timers that didn't retire are going to get slower & more injury prone. Sure, they added a bit of talent but with less hunger and a bit less luck I can see them not getting close next year. Think Richmond 2022.

On the flip side, our team's natural arc is to get faster and stronger. If we call the trade period even, then we get improvement from the extra year all of our stars get closer to their prime. Fyfe & Tabs would struggle to have worse seasons so think things could easily see us go past Geelong. I won't be losing sleep over them, although there will no doubt be another challenger or three to contend with if we want to pinch one early.

Right. So the same thing people have been saying for years eh. They have just shown in the last trade period that as a club they are hungry as well as the ability to sustain regular appearances every finals season.

Taberner wouldn't even get a game at Geelong, and would at best be depth for them if he had a list spot. Do we have a forward who would be in their best 6? I'm not even certain what our forward best 6 looks like. It would be difficult to see us going past them until that is evened up.

 

[oldgoat]

You are forgetting about Geelong's natural arc. They averaged 28 years, so all the old timers that didn't retire are going to get slower & more injury prone. Sure, they added a bit of talent but with less hunger and a bit less luck I can see them not getting close next year. Think Richmond 2022.

On the flip side, our team's natural arc is to get faster and stronger. If we call the trade period even, then we get improvement from the extra year all of our stars get closer to their prime. Fyfe & Tabs would struggle to have worse seasons so think things could easily see us go past Geelong. I won't be losing sleep over them, although there will no doubt be another challenger or three to contend with if we want to pinch one early.

when you are 21 another seasons 22 games is what you need...
when you get to 28, not so much...

 

[Mags98]

Right. So the same thing people have been saying for years eh. They have just shown in the last trade period that as a club they are hungry as well as the ability to sustain regular appearances every finals season.

Taberner wouldn't even get a game at Geelong, and would at best be depth for them if he had a list spot. Do we have a forward who would be in their best 6? I'm not even certain what our forward best 6 looks like. It would be difficult to see us going past them until that is evened up.

tbf theres maybe one or two tall forwards who get into geelongs side

 

[theGav56]

tbf theres maybe one or two tall forwards who get into geelongs side

Yes you're right. Plus last season they added an elite small forward (for nothing) and this season a medium forward (for peanuts).

 

[FDH16]

Tabs or Treacy have to kick 40 plus.

Just need one of them to have a good year.

Taberner has been in the system for a decade.

He's never kicked over 40 in a season, he won't start now.

Treacy is not going to get close to 40, let alone 30.

Amiss & Jackson will need to the heavy lifting.