Matthew Guy. Can a mediocre leader with a 3rd rate team win government?

[The Punter]

Is the IPA an extreme right organisation?

It's further to the right that it was, and it's too far right for my tastes. The dalliances with cookerism and the like would never have washed there 20 years ago.

 

[kalex6251]

epstein suggesting pesutto won by 1 vote .... not the decisive victory he or the lib party more generally would have hoped for

[edit] wonder if pesuttos 1 vote victory was reliant on those whose seats havent been called by the vec yet

[edit 2]

 

[HurleyHepsHird]

Summary: people who wouldn't vote for Pesutto won't vote for Pesutto.

This take strikes me as distinctly lacking in hummanity.

Again, it isn't just politics, there was a large segment of the community that was vilified and alienated.

The idea of simply pivoting to a new "strategy" is borderline sociopathic, if that's how the current Liberal party views this and a litany of other social indiscretions it believes it can just paper over.

 

[Gralin]

Presuming you were meant to tag the other Ned - not the first time this has happened.

My take on the Victorian Election - I am really preturbed that the Labor campaign team have won landslides off the back of that 'He's the Liberal's cuts guy!' ad not once but twice. This would be akin to the Liberals winning in a landslide off the back of the 'hole in your budget' ads. Mediocre work such as this shouldn't be rewarded.

However - I do love that of all the things the Libs could have run a campaign angle on - their main attack line for a good 6-8 weeks was 'CaN YoU BeLiEvE LaBoR Is BuIlDiNg A TrAiN LiNe!!'. Well, yes actually - that is kind of why state governments exist. Of all the things you could attack Andrews on this was one of the stupidest. Considering how the votes played out in seats impacted by said train line it seems like it was just as effective strategy as spending 6-12 months trying to dog whistle their way to the last election win by whipping up a not even thinly veiled racist fear campaign. For all the navel-gazing the Libs love to do after losing I do wonder if they might ever consider that appealing to people's worst tendencies might not always work.

yeah sorry Ned

 

[kalex6251]

^^^ (in response to hurleyhepshirds post above)

if frydenberg thought it appropriate to use federal parliament to brand albo as some unhinged socialist based on university essays, then its only fair and reasonable to question pesutto over his direct/indirect/silent endorsement of the african gangs attack

just proves the most fragile glass jaws in all of politics are those of the conservative right

 

[HurleyHepsHird]

^^^ (in response to hurleyhepshirds post above)

if frydenberg thought it appropriate to use federal parliament to brand albo as some unhinged socialist based on university essays, then its only fair and reasonable to question pesutto over his direct/indirect/silent endorsement of the african gangs attack

just proves the most fragile glass jaws in all of politics are those of the conservative right

He was a pretty vocal participant.

Victorian opposition stokes rhetoric on alleged African youth gang crime

John Pesutto says the Andrews government is ignoring a ‘real crisis’, despite police warnings that referring to ‘gangs’ is counter-productive

www.theguardian.com

 

[peetoo]

Labor and green voters of hawthorn setting their bookmarks for Nov 2026.
(If he lasts that long btw)

This marginal lark is so fun

 

[Sqotty from office works]

Labor and green voters of hawthorn setting their bookmarks for Nov 2026.
(If he lasts that long btw)

This marginal lark is so fun

Best chance of winning is to form a coalition with ALP.

 

[The Punter]

This take strikes me as distinctly lacking in hummanity.

Again, it isn't just politics, there was a large segment of the community that was vilified and alienated.

The idea of simply pivoting to a new "strategy" is borderline sociopathic, if that's how the current Liberal party views this and a litany of other social indiscretions it believes it can just paper over.

That wasn't the point I was making at all. The point I was making is regardless of the criticism of the gangs strategy, if that strategy had not been attempted, there would be something else you would be hitting Pesutto over the head with. For example, items on his CV that are over ten years old. Although as we ably demonstrated by Labor, stuff that happened last century isn't too long ago to use as a political tool.

Perhaps I just lack in hummanity.

 

[Ned_Flanders]

Labor and green voters of hawthorn setting their bookmarks for Nov 2026.
(If he lasts that long btw)

This marginal lark is so fun

Best chance of winning is to form a coalition with ALP.

no, the best chance for the ALP to prevent a liberal win is to do exactly what they did in Kooyong (and didnt do in Hawthorn) - run dead

Lets look at the vote:

LIBS and Cookers: 45.3%

ALP and Greens: 33.2%

Then you have the 20% with the teal. For the ALP or Greens to win, they need nearly 75% of teal preferences. Thats not happening, which is why the Libs won.

If the Teal had finished 2nd on the second last preference wash (and not 3rd), she would have had a better chance of winning, thanks to the ALP and Greens preferencing the Teals much more strongly that the Teals preference them

To see the Libs lose, the ALP and the Greens cannot win without a Teal, AND they both have to run dead so as to funnel their vote to the Teal

 

[Gough]

He was a pretty vocal participant.

Victorian opposition stokes rhetoric on alleged African youth gang crime

John Pesutto says the Andrews government is ignoring a ‘real crisis’, despite police warnings that referring to ‘gangs’ is counter-productive

www.theguardian.com

Be interesting to see what he does with Renee Heath.

 

[FredLeDeux]

Be interesting to see what he does with Renee Heath.

Already said he's going to allow her to continue to spread the rot in the rest of the Liberal Party

 

[Ned Ryerson]

Be interesting to see what he does with Renee Heath.

Has already confirmed and re-confirmed that she will be sitting in the party room. Broad church and all that.

 

[Millky95]

no, the best chance for the ALP to prevent a liberal win is to do exactly what they did in Kooyong (and didnt do in Hawthorn) - run dead

Lets look at the vote:

LIBS and Cookers: 45.3%

ALP and Greens: 33.2%

Then you have the 20% with the teal. For the ALP or Greens to win, they need nearly 75% of teal preferences. Thats not happening, which is why the Libs won.

If the Teal had finished 2nd on the second last preference wash (and not 3rd), she would have had a better chance of winning, thanks to the ALP and Greens preferencing the Teals much more strongly that the Teals preference them

To see the Libs lose, the ALP and the Greens cannot win without a Teal, AND they both have to run dead so as to funnel their vote to the Teal

Will be interesting to see if the Teals run again in 2026 or if they'll stick to the Feds

Or be a 1 off time thing

 

[Gough]

Already said he's going to allow her to continue to spread the rot in the rest of the Liberal Party

So the Principal Skinner principle of the children being wrong still applies to the future policy direction of the Libs by the look of that.

 

[Not Important]

no, the best chance for the ALP to prevent a liberal win is to do exactly what they did in Kooyong (and didnt do in Hawthorn) - run dead

Lets look at the vote:

LIBS and Cookers: 45.3%

ALP and Greens: 33.2%

Then you have the 20% with the teal. For the ALP or Greens to win, they need nearly 75% of teal preferences. Thats not happening, which is why the Libs won.

If the Teal had finished 2nd on the second last preference wash (and not 3rd), she would have had a better chance of winning, thanks to the ALP and Greens preferencing the Teals much more strongly that the Teals preference them

To see the Libs lose, the ALP and the Greens cannot win without a Teal, AND they both have to run dead so as to funnel their vote to the Teal

labor running dead was a factor in the federal election, but a lesser one. by far the most important were that overwhelmingly the teals were conservatives who were disenchanted at the extreme right swing of conservatism. that was not a consistent theme in the state election. there was no benefactor or common rallying force as there was with simon holmes à court in the federal poll. and most of the teals were high profile or at least well known in the federal election. that was not the case in the state poll.

in the seat i'm most familiar with the so-called teal was an extremely intelligent, politically astute person who worked incredibly hard, but was not well known and with no funds or rallying force. as a result she got very little publicity or cut through,

 

[Ned_Flanders]

labor running dead was a factor in the federal election, but a lesser one. by far the most important were that overwhelmingly the teals were conservatives who were disenchanted at the extreme right swing of conservatism. that was not a consistent theme in the state election. there was no benefactor or common rallying force as there was with simon holmes à court in the federal poll. and most of the teals were high profile or at least well known in the federal election. that was not the case in the state poll.

in the seat i'm most familiar with the so-called teal was an extremely intelligent, politically astute person who worked incredibly hard, but was not well known and with no funds or rallying force. as a result she got very little publicity or cut through,

the running dead matters because the Teal MUST finish above the combined vote of the ALP and the Greens

Lets compare 2019 and 2022:

2019:
LIBS: 49.41%
IND: 8.98%
ALP: 16.83%
GRN: 21.24%
Cookers: 2.42%
APJ: 1.13%

2022:
LIBS: 42.66%
IND: 40.29%
ALP: 6.92%
GRN: 6.3%
Cookers: 3.34%
APJ: 0.49%

Then we look at the movement (just using straight line aves and hard 100% preferencing for simplicity)

LIBS: -6.75

• 0.92% to cookers
• 5.83% to indi

ALP/GRN/AJP: - 25.49%
* all goes to indi

so lets go off your notion, and the ALP and Greens dont run dead. What happens?

Lets assume they hold their 2019 numbers, how would that look?

LIB: 42.66%
IND: 15.44%
ALP: 16.83%
GRN: 21.24%
Cookers: 3.34%
APJ: 0.49%

the problem here for the Teal out in the 4th round, and Frydo gets the W thanks to Teal preferences

next step, lets assume the ALP and Greens both bleed 10% of their 2019 to the Teal (which is a big fall as we saw in the recent state polls):

LIB: 42.66%
IND: 15.44%
ALP: 15.15%
GRN: 19.12%
Cookers: 3.34%
APJ: 0.49%

So here the ALP can kill it by having a national deal with the Greens. The ALP gets cut, preferences the Greens, but then Teals tap out 3rd and give the win to Frydo

The only way to prevent a Liberal win is by the ALP and Greens running dead - regardless of what the Teals do

 

[Not Important]

i acknowledged that labor running dead was a factor, ned. but the waaaaay bigger matter was getting liberals 2 change their vote. it was the only way teals in 2 of the seats i am familiar with won. 1 of them has publicly acknowledged that fact. and that occurred due to the choice of high profile candidates. and holmes a court's millions and campaigning strategy. non of which occurred in victoria.

 

[Ned_Flanders]

i acknowledged that labor running dead was a factor, ned. but the waaaaay bigger matter was getting liberals 2 change their vote. it was the only way teals in 2 of the seats i am familiar with won. 1 of them has publicly acknowledged that fact. and that occurred due to the choice of high profile candidates. and holmes a court's millions and campaigning strategy. non of which occurred in victoria.

you think a 7% lib swing is more important than the 25% ALP/GRN swing, esp considering Ryan ONLY wins if she holds the second spot?

If the ALP and GRN finish higher, she doesnt survive preferencing

 

[Not Important]

you think a 7% lib swing is more important than the 25% ALP/GRN swing, esp considering Ryan ONLY wins if she holds the second spot?

If the ALP and GRN finish higher, she doesnt survive preferencing

let me put it this way, the teals wouldn’t have won either kooyong or goldstein if labor had run dead and the other factors i mentioned weren’t front and centre..

 

[Ned_Flanders]

let me put it this way, the teals wouldn’t have won either kooyong or goldstein if labor had run dead and the other factors i mentioned weren’t front and centre..

you have been sucked into this myth that Holmes A'Court money won these races. It didnt.

Most of the money teals raised in the fed was from small donors. His funding was essentially starter seed funding, but then their own arrangements kicked off. Also while Ryan raised a buttload of money, so did Frydo. The Libs at one stage had Frydo on pretty much every billboard in the electorate (and im not exaggerating). On election day, he had volunteers shipped in from all over victoria to work his booths (I was a split booth, minority Kooyong, and the Kooyong libs outnumbered by alp volunteers more than 2-1)

now for the state you will go the funding cap. That is a non issue, because as mentioned above the libs spent just as much in Kooyong as the teals did. and also if was fudged pretty badly IMO

question for you. how did the libs afford to pay for flights and accom to bring qld volunteers down to melbourne to work the prepoll and election day given the restraints in place?

and re: the teals and their volunteers, there has been the rumour that they were all ship in's from green and alp electorates to undermine the libs. two things i can say on this (from what i saw at my booth), they were all locals (and I didnt have that with mine for the ALP), and the same faces for Ryan were there for the state election. It was a true grassroots movement, and I think people grossly underestimate how important this was

 

[QuietB]

I would have thought that the teals in the state election were nowhere near the force they were in the federal election and that is the main reason Pessutto won. I can probably name every single federal teal elected - I cannot name a single state teal. The teals were a non event in the state election.

As an example Glenferrie Road Hawthorn was a sea of teal T shirts in the federal election. I didn't see one in the state election.

If Labor and the Greens did run dead Pessutto would have won by a lot more.

 

[Ned_Flanders]

I would have thought that the teals in the state election were nowhere near the force they were in the federal election and that is the main reason Pessutto won. I can probably name every single federal teal elected - I cannot name a single state teal. The teals were a non event in the state election.

As an example Glenferrie Road Hawthorn was a sea of teal T shirts in the federal election. I didn't see one in the state election.

If Labor and the Greens did run dead Pessutto would have won by a lot more.

1) most state teals lacked the charisma for the fed teals

2) fundraising caps meant the mass spend on signage, billboards, and corflutes in the fed wasnt possible in the state (and this is a good thing)

3) you honestly think ALP voters would have voted for the Lib over the Teal? Really???

 

[QuietB]

1) most state teals lacked the charisma for the fed teals

2) fundraising caps meant the mass spend on signage, billboards, and corflutes in the fed wasnt possible in the state (and this is a good thing)

3) you honestly think ALP voters would have voted for the Lib over the Teal? Really???

Labor would have got their votes. Without the greens Pessutto would have kept more liberal votes because they would not have the greens for their protest vote and would outright refuse to vote Labor.

 

[Ned_Flanders]

Labor would have got their votes. Without the greens Pessutto would have kept more liberal votes because they would not have the greens for their protest vote and would outright refuse to vote Labor.

ALP would never win (last election was a fluke)

teals preference libs, not alp. and the greens/alp are not enough to hold hawthorn