Matthew Guy. Can a mediocre leader with a 3rd rate team win government?

[Gralin]

the right isnt disappearing

look at the vic results:
View attachment 1565905


If you look at the primary moves:

ALP/LIBS/SFF/TM/IND - down 7%

Greens/AJP/Pot - up 1.3%

Cookers - up 5.7%

so most of the disgruntled voters were not going to a left alternative, 80% went to cookers.

If you get your wet dream and the libs die, the cookers will pick up the bulk of the liberal vote - not the ALP and def not the Greens

I never said the right was disappearing I said the argument against left wing politics and policy is always the middle will move further right, like apparently moderates would rather vote for racists that social services and climate action

I don't think that is the reality, yeah we've had some pretty good recruitment movements on the right in the last couple of years taking the disenfranchised voters, and some of them have come from the left for sure but some of them have also just moved further right.

Our system is slowly pushing the Overton window to the right, our politicians and media are doing that every day but you like to blame the left for it happening which funnily enough is what they do while pushing themselves.

My wet dream doesn't involve an ALP Greens 2 party system either, it should in theory give us a better option that we have currently but all the effort going into compromising the libs would just focus on the ALP instead.

You're also assuming there wouldn't be a "new libs" to fill the void like the teals tried to do federally, or that the ALP wouldn't just go hard after the lib base and leave the progressive's at the door

The actual hard right vote in Vic was about 5%, I don't see the majority joining them if the Libs imploded somehow, they'd look for better alternatives than voting PHON or UAP

 

[Ned_Flanders]

I never said the right was disappearing I said the argument against left wing politics and policy is always the middle will move further right, like apparently moderates would rather vote for racists that social services and climate action

I don't think that is the reality, yeah we've had some pretty good recruitment movements on the right in the last couple of years taking the disenfranchised voters, and some of them have come from the left for sure but some of them have also just moved further right.

Our system is slowly pushing the Overton window to the right, our politicians and media are doing that every day but you like to blame the left for it happening which funnily enough is what they do while pushing themselves.

My wet dream doesn't involve an ALP Greens 2 party system either, it should in theory give us a better option that we have currently but all the effort going into compromising the libs would just focus on the ALP instead.

You're also assuming there wouldn't be a "new libs" to fill the void like the teals tried to do federally, or that the ALP wouldn't just go hard after the lib base and leave the progressive's at the door

The actual hard right vote in Vic was about 5%, I don't see the majority joining them if the Libs imploded somehow, they'd look for better alternatives than voting PHON or UAP

JFYI hard right is 7.6% on the current vote, and thats excluding the nats (which i dont consider hard right in Vic)

and remember Victoria is historically the least hard right of the major state (PHON always struggled here compared to NSW and QLD), this number will be much higher in NSW in March

 

[Caj]

Except Matthew Guy Yeah?

If a corrupt, incompetent, lying, misogynistic, bully like Daniel Andrews can be Premier, anyone can be

 

[Crankyhawk]

what they were is relevant, because they are not a party of cookers or trumpians or evans. factions are exerting influence, but this can be reversed.

FFS when the ALP person is saying the Libs aint dead and still have relevance, and its everyone else celebrating their demise, we are truly in bizarro world


and btw, good govts have good oppositions. everyone should be fighting for the vic libs to be retuned and providing victorians with a credible and viable alternative. This notion people have of the ALP and Greens being the two parties will never ever happen, and will only be a bad thing (as it ignores far too many in the electorate)

I’m not celebrating the death of the lnp and agree on the need for a competent opposition. I’m just struggling to see how they achieve a return to what you call core pre Howard values. Do they even try? Do they want the moderates to return? They seem to make the environment hostile to moderates (the lnp insider is saying as much if I am reading his post’s correctly)

 

[Ned_Flanders]

I’m not celebrating the death of the lnp and agree on the need for a competent opposition. I’m just struggling to see how they achieve a return to what you call core pre Howard values. Do they even try? Do they want the moderates to return? They seem to make the environment hostile to moderates (the lnp insider is saying as much if I am reading his post’s correctly)

people were saying the exact same s**t about the alp not long ago

remember when we needed to be folded and everyone just join the greens or PHON?

 

[Not Important]

two things:

1) branches do matter. Want proof, look at who determines preselection in the NSW and Vic Libs. Its the branches, not central

2) just because a branch raises an issue, it doesnt mean it has mass support. As mentioned previously, you need to prepare support in advance of state conferences/councils, otherwise you are dead before you start

1. branches determine pre-selection when it suits the machine. when it doesn’t the machine wins the day. the machine wiped out macphee, baume and a dozen other so called ‘bleeding hearts’. wilson won goldstein pre-selection bc of the intervention of m8 brandis. downer won pre-selection in s.a due 2 her fathers influence. morrison inserted a number of his ‘friends’ into seats and ,in fact, got the cook seat after help from the machine. I could go on. the machine gets what it wants.

2 what i was saying about the person i know who was for 4 years the branch rep is endemic in the party. the machine wins on crucial matters always. much of it pre-determined b4 the conference.

 

[Ned_Flanders]

1. branches determine pre-selection when it suits the machine. when it doesn’t the machine wins the day. the machine wiped out macphee, baume and a dozen other so called ‘bleeding hearts’. wilson won goldstein pre-selection bc of the intervention of m8 brandis. downer won pre-selection in s.a due 2 her fathers influence. morrison inserted a number of his ‘friends’ into seats and ,in fact, got the cook seat after help from the machine. I could go on. the machine gets what it wants.

2 what i was saying about the person i know who was for 4 years the branch rep is endemic in the party. the machine wins on crucial matters always. much of it pre-determined b4 the conference.

the rules are not as easily overturned as you seem to think they are

have you forgotten the s**t Scomo caused when he tried to ignore them in the Federal?

for how many years it took the ALP to legally reform its structures (and its still not complete, branch meetings only just resumed, and many of the suspended arrangements are not yet happening)

 

[The Punter]

The Victorian machine would have had a problem with some of the new upper house members to be sure. The branch membership imposed their candidates on the machine.

 

[Ned_Flanders]

The Victorian machine would have had a problem with some of the new upper house members to be sure. The branch membership imposed their candidates on the machine.

I heard a good comment on this Saturday night (forget with channel)

The branches ignore HQ and preselect people they like. But then when the candidate fails, its the fault of HQ

 

[The Punter]

I heard a good comment on this Saturday night (forget with channel)

The branches ignore HQ and preselect people they like. But then when the candidate fails, its the fault of HQ

Sounds like Tony Barry on ABC.

 

[peetoo]

the right isnt disappearing

look at the vic results:
View attachment 1565905


If you look at the primary moves:

ALP/LIBS/SFF/TM/IND - down 7%

Greens/AJP/Pot - up 1.3%

Cookers - up 5.7%

so most of the disgruntled voters were not going to a left alternative, 80% went to cookers.

If you get your wet dream and the libs die, the cookers will pick up the bulk of the liberal vote - not the ALP and def not the Greens

Now devils advocat the other way, I’m sure you could

Anyway the right has lost a shitload over two elections. No one is surprised there a swing back

 

[peetoo]

If a corrupt, incompetent, lying, misogynistic, bully like Daniel Andrews can be Premier, anyone can be

Myscogenistic? Tell that to the male boomers who have been let go. Ageism is conveniently dropped from th diversity industry

 

[Crankyhawk]

people were saying the exact same s**t about the alp not long ago

remember when we needed to be folded and everyone just join the greens or PHON?

That though was in effect a lack of extreme belief in the alp as in not seen to know what they stand for due to over moderation- a contrast to being too hard line to attract other views

 

[Ned_Flanders]

That though was in effect a lack of extreme belief in the alp as in not seen to know what they stand for due to over moderation- a contrast to being too hard line to attract other views

The answer is the same however. You have lost your voters, have no natural constituency anymore, and should just FOAD.

The map looked very similar to this in the 80s, until the libs flipped the table in the 90s. Parties and voters evolve and change, and anyone thinking the liberals are dead is a ******* moron

 

[Not Important]

the rules are not as easily overturned as you seem to think they are

have you forgotten the s**t Scomo caused when he tried to ignore them in the Federal?

for how many years it took the ALP to legally reform its structures (and its still not complete, branch meetings only just resumed, and many of the suspended arrangements are not yet happening)

completely understand how difficult it is 2 change rules. it’s the way the machine wants it. i give u a big tick 4 being an active participant in the political process via party membership but don’t expect 2 have any major impact.

 

[HurleyHepsHird]

Im willing to give him the benefit of the doubt

one price you pay with large party politics, is you must push the barrow that you are given - whether you agree with it or not, you have to accept the will of the party room

Just IMO, the sudanese gangs strategy most likely originated from Guy and his inner circle

This election was a massive bitch slap from Asian voters in Ashwood, Glen Waverley, and Box Hill (again), and this is not sustainable if the Libs with to regain power. Also the Libs made massive gains in the north and the west, areas of massive migrant numbers. If the Libs hope to potentially flip these, they need to embrace these communities and not vilify them.

Lets see how Pesutto goes (assuming he gets up) before we hang him

Why give a person who went all in on a racist strategy that alienated a whole swathe of the public "the benefit of the doubt".

That's such a cynical take, which rests on giving these scumbags a free pass coz party politics.

His first moment in the media was to confirm that he would allow an extremist that Guy vowed to boot, back into the party room.

This West Wing brain take, which begs for a competitive opposition and comity from one side of politics, vs a rabble of deranged freaks, is exactly how you devolve into a US type situation where the political class is completely alienated from the public.

Have and demand actual values. ******* honestly.

 

[Ned_Flanders]

Why give a person who went all in on a racist strategy that alienated a whole swathe of the public "the benefit of the doubt".

That's such a cynical take, which rests on giving these scumbags a free pass coz party politics.

His first moment in the media was to confirm that he would allow an extremist that Guy vowed to boot, back into the party room.

This West Wing brain take, which begs for a competitive opposition and comity from one side of politics, vs a rabble of deranged freaks, is exactly how you devolve into a US type situation where the political class is completely alienated from the public.

Have and demand actual values. ******* honestly.

As I said previously, it's guy who wears that call, not the party room

On the Evan, do you have any links to statements that she personally has made that are bad? So far everything I've seen is from her dad's church and not her.

Convicting by association is complete bs

 

[HurleyHepsHird]

As I said previously, it's guy who wears that call, not the party room

On the Evan, do you have any links to statements that she personally has made that are bad? So far everything I've seen is from her dad's church and not her.

Convicting by association is complete bs

It's everyone who participated. Including Pesutto who made those statements.

"Just following orders" is not an acceptable excuse, for obvious reasons.

I find it odd that you are rushing to defend these demons.

 

[peetoo]

It's everyone who participated. Including Pesutto who made those statements.

"Just following orders" is not an acceptable excuse, for obvious reasons.

I find it odd that you are rushing to defend these demons.

The massive billboards accompanying the “strategy’ didn’t magically materialise either

 

[Ned_Flanders]

It's everyone who participated. Including Pesutto who made those statements.

"Just following orders" is not an acceptable excuse, for obvious reasons.

I find it odd that you are rushing to defend these demons.

Because politics should not be "my guys good, your guys evil"

If you lot actually spoke to your local members, you would realise there are genuinely good people on all sides of politics.

Too often we ignore good talent just because they are not in a party we like

 

[Gralin]

Because politics should not be "my guys good, your guys evil"

If you lot actually spoke to your local members, you would realise there are genuinely good people on all sides of politics.

Too often we ignore good talent just because they are not in a party we like

If they are in a party with openly racist, homophobic or mysoginistic people and not calling them out because they are on the same team the they're also racist, homophobic and mysoginistic

 

[Ned_Flanders]

If they are in a party with openly racist, homophobic or mysoginistic people and not calling them out because they are on the same team the they're also racist, homophobic and mysoginistic

Dude you think everyone not green is scum

 

[Theseventhhamster]

Because politics should not be "my guys good, your guys evil"

If you lot actually spoke to your local members, you would realise there are genuinely good people on all sides of politics.

Too often we ignore good talent just because they are not in a party we like

You're not a good person if you go along with racist s**t. This isn't complex mate.

 

[fs88]

Yay now his potential replacement hasn't even finished high school ffs lol. You'd think the bare minimum qualifications to run a state is to complete year 12 and not literally graduate from the School of Hard Knocks.

Liberal leadership hopeful looks to home ownership to boost support among young Victorians

Brad Battin says the party failed to define its values to voters and needs to target the outer suburbs

www.theguardian.com

 

[Crankyhawk]

Yay now his potential replacement hasn't even finished high school ffs lol. You'd think the bare minimum qualifications to run a state is to complete year 12 and not literally graduate from the School of Hard Knocks.

View attachment 1568598

Liberal leadership hopeful looks to home ownership to boost support among young Victorians

Brad Battin says the party failed to define its values to voters and needs to target the outer suburbs

www.theguardian.com

Dunno it gives him a leg up over the typical liberal image (private school trust fund kiddy)