How the coalition can win the next Victorian election

[mikey127]

Simple. They must resist temptation from the eight of the party abd keep Pesutto as leader. He appeals to the centralist and those are who you need to won an election. I even know ALP voters that like him, the people that like him least are the far right who will preference the coalition over the ALP anyway.

If the liberals bow to pressure and go for a more conservative leader they simply won't gain much ground if any, Pesutto will win if they unite behind him.

 

[demondavey]

It’s not Pesutto. It’s a Victorian LNP issue. They’ve got nothing.

 

[Gethelred]

I think their issues are deeper than mere change of leadership.

 

[mikey127]

I think their issues are deeper than mere change of leadership.

I'm saying don't change leader.

I actually think the are on tge right track with Pesutto, Jess Wilson, Sam Groth. They have some good new blood coming through

 

[mikey127]

It’s not Pesutto. It’s a Victorian LNP issue. They’ve got nothing.

I think some of there younger MPs are decent

 

[Gethelred]

I'm saying don't change leader.

I actually think the are on tge right track with Pesutto, Jess Wilson, Sam Groth. They have some good new blood coming through

While I get what you're saying, I genuinely think the problem is more fundamental in Victoria than merely a change of personnel.

In Vic, they're going to need a complete change of tack. We're simply not in any way - economically or socially - a conservative or right wing state.

If that's what they represent, power is only available to them if or when Labor makes enough of a mistake to allow them back in. Ted Baillieu was ****ed after winning government despite the late era missteps of Bracks/Brumby because they didn't seem to do anything. There was no vision for the state; there was only conservative sitting on one's hands.

If the Libs want power back here, they need to recognise that we here want progress.

They need to sell progress and they need to deliver it in the populace's eyes.

 

[mikey127]

While I get what you're saying, I genuinely think the problem is more fundamental in Victoria than merely a change of personnel.

In Vic, they're going to need a complete change of tack. We're simply not in any way - economically or socially - a conservative or right wing state.

If that's what they represent, power is only available to them if or when Labor makes enough of a mistake to allow them back in. Ted Baillieu was ****ed after winning government despite the late era missteps of Bracks/Brumby because they didn't seem to do anything. There was no vision for the state; there was only conservative sitting on one's hands.

If the Libs want power back here, they need to recognise that we here want progress.

They need to sell progress and they need to deliver it in the populace's eyes.

Sure but I think the likes of Pesutto, Wilson, Brother etc are progressive especially compared with Guy, O'Brien's Davis etc

 

[Gethelred]

Sure but I think the likes of Pesutto, Wilson, Brother etc are progressive especially compared with Guy, O'Brien's Davis etc

But that's just a semblance. If they don't do anything with the power they get - which is tricky to do from opposition - they have no chance.

 

[ep2018]

The Liberal party will be extinct before they become viable in Victoria again. You can make the same argument with the WA Liberals.

Those sick of Labor will mostly vote Greens, those sick of Liberals will vote teal independents... Labor will win each and every time.

 

[mikey127]

But that's just a semblance. If they don't do anything with the power they get - which is tricky to do from opposition - they have no chance.

Agree with what you're saying but I think Pesutto is doing a good job as opposition leader. My mother lives in Jess Wilson's electorate and she seems to spend a lot of time in the community

 

[mikey127]

The Liberal party will be extinct before they become viable in Victoria again. You can make the same argument with the WA Liberals.

Those sick of Labor will mostly vote Greens, those sick of Liberals will vote teal independents... Labor will win each and every time.

I think if they go back to a conservative leader they will be but Pesutto is moderate. Don't know about centralist voting greens, teal maybe but not greens.

I don't follow Queensland politics closely other than taking an interest in the Gabba rebuild but interesting that the libs are warm favourites to win QLD and bookies saying they are not without a chance in WA

 

[geoffjennings79]

He appeals to the centralist and those are who you need to won an election. I even know ALP voters that like him

If this is you're basis to suggest Libs will WIN, I think your analysis is a tad(!) shallow.

Do you know enough(!) ALP voters who 'like' him enough to switch their votes and enable him/LNP to WIN 17 seats - while holding on to all of their own!? Are your ALP friends in gettable seats? Because that's what it will take for them to form majority govt - a net gain of 17 seats (I'd suggest the chances of LNP forming minority govt in Victoria are less than zero).

Sure things can change a lot in 2.5 years in politics. Allan and her govt could implode, some scandal could impact the election, etc. Equally Pesutto could be deposed, or Libs even more fractured themselves.

I'm not even getting into a debate on what a 'centralist' is - I presume you mean swinging voter?

 

[kalex6251]

they could start by burning the entire joint down* .... then blame kroger for the mess (and keep blaming him until the penny drops that him - and the sky fairy nutters he brought in - are no longer wanted or welcome within the fold)

* not that i think it would help

 

[Sttew]

If the Libs want power back here, they need to recognise that we here want progress.

They need to sell progress and they need to deliver it in the populace's eyes.

Not so sure about this. We’ve seen unfettered progress under Andrews, no doubt. But is it sustainable?

S&P claims the state debt will hit $250 billion in 2027. This year’s State budget is going to be the budget from Hell because without slashing funding and raising taxes further (we are already the highest taxed state in Australia) critical services will be affected. Where do you draw the line?

 

[Johnny Bananas]

The Liberals won't win under Pesutto unless Labor screw up epically. Mind you, under Guy or Battin they wouldn't win even if Labor did screw up epically.

 

[Johnny Bananas]

I don't follow Queensland politics closely other than taking an interest in the Gabba rebuild but interesting that the libs are warm favourites to win QLD and bookies saying they are not without a chance in WA

Bookies often know very little about politics when it comes to a general election. You can make good money from elections if you look at where bookies have screwed up their odds.

 

[Gethelred]

Not so sure about this. We’ve seen unfettered progress under Andrews, no doubt. But is it sustainable?

But that's the thing: it doesn't seem to matter if it's sustainable. Baillieu's government was a stock standard, run of the mill Liberal government, and were looked askance at because they didn't seem to be doing anything.

Vics don't like governments and leaders who sit on their hands, sustainable or not.

S&P claims the state debt will hit $250 billion in 2027. This year’s State budget is going to be the budget from Hell because without slashing funding and raising taxes further (we are already the highest taxed state in Australia) critical services will be affected. Where do you draw the line?

The opp. needs to be able to make that case. I don't expect it to have all that much traction, but it's their elction to lose.

 

[Sttew]

But that's the thing: it doesn't seem to matter if it's sustainable. Baillieu's government was a stock standard, run of the mill Liberal government, and were looked askance at because they didn't seem to be doing anything.

Vics don't like governments and leaders who sit on their hands, sustainable or not.

The opp. needs to be able to make that case. I don't expect it to have all that much traction, but it's their elction to lose.

Totally agree about Baillieu and fact it’s LNP’s election to lose.

I don’t expect Allen to perform as well as Andrews unless the Labor spin machine works overtime.

2024 will be a telling year for both sides. This state is facing serious pain and the LNP has to leverage off that.

Land tax on industrial properties is reportedly stifling many businesses who will shed labour and/or increase prices to offset 100-300% land tax hikes. And the irony is many of these businesses are producing parts for the Big Build.

 

[Todman]

The 4 pillars of state government

1. Law and order
2. Health
3. Education
4. Public Transport.

If the public perceives you as better than the other guys then you win.

 

[Maggie5]

The 4 pillars of state government

1. Law and order
2. Health
3. Education
4. Public Transport.

If the public perceives you as better than the other guys then you win.

I think you may need to squeeze in Taxes, Housing and Cost of Living in there somewhere and maybe drop Public Transport.

 

[Todman]

I think you may need to squeeze in Taxes, Housing and Cost of Living in there somewhere and maybe drop Public Transport.

These only become issues when the current government stuffs up bigtime.

 

[Maggie5]

These only become issues when the current government stuffs up bigtime.

Maybe in the 'golden olden days', but not now.

All an opposition has to do is rinse and repeat those three additional things which will hit home.

 

[Cyber_punk]

When 2026 hits the Libs would of held power for just 4 of the last 27 years. Only chance they have is if people do a protest vote en masse if unhappy with the ALP.

Quite frankly the (usually correct) public perception of the Libs being the party for the rich old white guys like Gerry Harvey is not going to go away anytime soon. Especially in ever-growing green Melbourne.

 

[Crankyhawk]

While I get what you're saying, I genuinely think the problem is more fundamental in Victoria than merely a change of personnel.

In Vic, they're going to need a complete change of tack. We're simply not in any way - economically or socially - a conservative or right wing state.

If that's what they represent, power is only available to them if or when Labor makes enough of a mistake to allow them back in. Ted Baillieu was ****ed after winning government despite the late era missteps of Bracks/Brumby because they didn't seem to do anything. There was no vision for the state; there was only conservative sitting on one's hands.

If the Libs want power back here, they need to recognise that we here want progress.

They need to sell progress and they need to deliver it in the populace's eyes.

And move socially back towards the center, rejecting the culture wars, while having a well developed economic plan which appeals to their base (and yes, probably with a bit of punching down - enough to be able to hold a majority and to differentiate from ALP but not so egregious as to cause people to realise what is going on). Potentially a good target would be the public service in the middle and upper management types without face to face public contact - they are soft target for budgetary pressures.

 

[mikey127]

If this is you're basis to suggest Libs will WIN, I think your analysis is a tad(!) shallow.

Do you know enough(!) ALP voters who 'like' him enough to switch their votes and enable him/LNP to WIN 17 seats - while holding on to all of their own!? Are your ALP friends in gettable seats? Because that's what it will take for them to form majority govt - a net gain of 17 seats (I'd suggest the chances of LNP forming minority govt in Victoria are less than zero).

Sure things can change a lot in 2.5 years in politics. Allan and her govt could implode, some scandal could impact the election, etc. Equally Pesutto could be deposed, or Libs even more fractured themselves.

I'm not even getting into a debate on what a 'centralist' is - I presume you mean swinging voter?

I know 17 seats is a lot but let's remember when the polls open everyone starts at zero.

Pesutto could be disposed but I think that would be a big mistake. Jess Wilson could be an option but don't know if she is experienced enough yet.