LNP will win the next federal election. Bookmark it.

[Crankyhawk]

This is the state of our “everyone gets a ribbon” if a few paragraphs pass for a “thesis”!

Maybe meant hypothesis?

 

[greyhound punter]

Really? This seems to be total nonsense, can you explain how?

The LNP have consistently favored lower wages opposing any increase. They have opposed workers rights. They have reduced regulation and favored big business and the very rich. They have given billions and billions to the rich (eg the jobkeeper to buinesses that actually increased profits during pandemic, massive tax cuts for the rich) and these costs will be borne by the average working Australian.

By all means. I agree with all you have said. However, my points are as follows:

1) LNP, against all odds, doubled the Jobseeker allowance during the pandemic, and then, permanently increased it after, albeit, by a modest $50 or so.
2) LNP were largely anti-lockdown. Lockdowns decimated the working class (ie, those people who couldn't work from home).
3) LNP closed the borders and largely drove the unemployment rate to where it is now.

Conversely, the ALP have abandoned any pledge to meaningfully increase social support for those unemployed. Additionally, the immigration rate has ensured, tonight, that many people are sleeping in their tents and cars. It is a national disgrace. No-one can talk about it because they are fearful of being branded a racist or a bigot.

The LNP would have done the same, of course, but if the LNP decided to run the next election on a promise to limit immigration to 60 k a year, then they would romp it in and everyone here knows that.

Slowly this issue is getting traction in the media, and I expect it to increase. Rightly so.

 

[royale with cheese]

Abbott couldn't win in 2010 with a government that made a lot more political mistakes than the current one. I think targetting a one-term return to government is very optimistic.

Rudd was riding high until late 2009 when the CPRS imploded.

 

[greyhound punter]

On the contrary.

Inflation is forecast to reduce to 4.5% by this year's end and 3% by 2024. Interest rate rise is expected to one more jump of 0.25 then that's it, followed by some cuts in 2024. House prices will drop 10% but they did in 2018-19 too and that didn't affect the Coalition in 2019.

Basically the worst of the economic pain we are in now, and will be reducing from later this year to stabilise next year. Next election can be delayed until mid 2025 if Albo wants to extend the period of better times before the election.

Forecasts are pointless. Irrelevant.

Inflation is still too high, especially core inflation. It isn't going to come down with interest rates at the current level. Indeed, history shows that interest rates have to go higher than CPI to get inflation (especially core inflation), back to the target range.

Of course, today, the RBA has strongly hinted that more rate rises are on the way.

Economic pain will be in the form of crashing house prices (ultimately a good thing long term), rising unemployment and Stagflation (high inflation combined with stagnating economic growth).

 

[Todman]

Forecasts are pointless. Irrelevant.

Inflation is still too high, especially core inflation. It isn't going to come down with interest rates at the current level. Indeed, history shows that interest rates have to go higher than CPI to get inflation (especially core inflation), back to the target range.

Of course, today, the RBA has strongly hinted that more rate rises are on the way.

Economic pain will be in the form of crashing house prices (ultimately a good thing long term), rising unemployment and Stagflation (high inflation combined with stagnating economic growth).

The last time Inflation was an issue it took 20 years to put it back in the bottle.

 

[Todman]

Inflation will continue to be an issue because the White House has no desire to reign it in.

 

[royale with cheese]

Inflation will continue to be an issue because the White House has no desire to reign it in.

Not just the White House. The world is so laden with debt the solution is to just inflate it away.

 

[Home Alone]

By all means. I agree with all you have said. However, my points are as follows:

1) LNP, against all odds, doubled the Jobseeker allowance during the pandemic, and then, permanently increased it after, albeit, by a modest $50 or so.
2) LNP were largely anti-lockdown. Lockdowns decimated the working class (ie, those people who couldn't work from home).
3) LNP closed the borders and largely drove the unemployment rate to where it is now.

Conversely, the ALP have abandoned any pledge to meaningfully increase social support for those unemployed. Additionally, the immigration rate has ensured, tonight, that many people are sleeping in their tents and cars. It is a national disgrace. No-one can talk about it because they are fearful of being branded a racist or a bigot.

The LNP would have done the same, of course, but if the LNP decided to run the next election on a promise to limit immigration to 60 k a year, then they would romp it in and everyone here knows that.

Slowly this issue is getting traction in the media, and I expect it to increase. Rightly so.

So without a once in a 100 year pandem8c, points 1, 2 and 3 wouldn't have happened.

Or are you suggesting that the LNP had this socialist epiphany moment during this period to change their beliefs, and the real econmic enemy is immigration.

 

[CarnTheScray]

LNP are a talentless rabble. When you have to bring in Michaelia Cash to be your Shadow Attorney General you know you are ****ed!

 

[greyhound punter]

The last time Inflation was an issue it took 20 years to put it back in the bottle.

I agree with you mate. Housing is going to crash 50%.

 

[greyhound punter]

So without a once in a 100 year pandem8c, points 1, 2 and 3 wouldn't have happened.

Or are you suggesting that the LNP had this socialist epiphany moment during this period to change their beliefs, and the real econmic enemy is immigration.

You are preaching to the converted bro.

But the idea that the ALP is for "the battler" is absolute hogwash. As I have said, at least with the LNP you knew they were driven by unabated self-interest. The ALP like to act like they are for the battler, dished up with a healthy dose of virtue signaling, yet their actions have shown that they are every bit as a self-interested, if not more, than the LNP. I don't see how that is a particularly controversial statement.

The problem with politics, and the public service in general, is that many of the top end of town are making decisions where they don't share in the downside. They only get to reap the upside.

1. If a politician wants to shut down the economy, then their wage should be reduced to the wage of the people who are put onto JobSeeker as a consequence of the original decision.

2.If you want 'Big Australia', then lets build a heap of high density apartments in the up market suburbs in Melbourne and Sydney, with the associated congestion and loss of amenities.

 

[Home Alone]

You are preaching to the converted bro.

But the idea that the ALP is for "the battler" is absolute hogwash. As I have said, at least with the LNP you knew they were driven by unabated self-interest. The ALP like to act like they are for the battler, dished up with a healthy dose of virtue signaling, yet their actions have shown that they are every bit as a self-interested, if not more, than the LNP. I don't see how that is a particularly controversial statement.

The problem with politics, and the public service in general, is that many of the top end of town are making decisions where they don't share in the downside. They only get to reap the upside.

1. If a politician wants to shut down the economy, then their wage should be reduced to the wage of the people who are put onto JobSeeker as a consequence of the original decision.

2.If you want 'Big Australia', then lets build a heap of high density apartments in the up market suburbs in Melbourne and Sydney, with the associated congestion and loss of amenities.

I think you are deviating from your initial thesis topic. And if I was to be critical, you already had your findings and conclusions before even beginning your research.

 

[Falconista]

LNP will win the next federal election.

My thesis:

The Australian economy will deteriorate over the next two years. High inflation, higher interest rates, house prices falling, unemployment rising.

The Australian populace will start to query what the ALP has actually done while in government, other than increase immigration levels to all time highs in the middle of a rental/housing crisis. If the LNP decide to wedge the ALP on immigration, then they will romp it in.

Andrew Hastie could easily lead the LNP to the next election and is PM material in the making. No doubt in my mind.

Your thoughts?

Which seats are the Coalition gaining next election?
Qld- already pretty good for LNP. Trouble if Warren Entsch retires.
Tassie- always unpredictable. Does Bridget Archer quit the Liberal party before 2025..?
SA- nothing really to change there.
NT- both likely holds. Either a very slight chance of flipping albeit Dutton's comments this past week haven't helped.
ACT- all three look very safe ALP.
Vic- Libs on the nose.
NSW- a couple of possible gains in Gilmore and Bennelong.
WA- Tangney is a strong chance to return Liberal but Moore is vulnerable.

Then which of the teal independents are in trouble? A couple may lose but not many.

Hard to see more than an optimistic +5 for the LNP imho which only gets them to 63 seats.

 

[blueboy25]

Which seats are the Coalition gaining next election?
Qld- already pretty good for LNP. Trouble if Warren Entsch retires.
Tassie- always unpredictable. Does Bridget Archer quit the Liberal party before 2025..?
SA- nothing really to change there.
NT- both likely holds. Either a very slight chance of flipping albeit Dutton's comments this past week haven't helped.
ACT- all three look very safe ALP.
Vic- Libs on the nose.
NSW- a couple of possible gains in Gilmore and Bennelong.
WA- Tangney is a strong chance to return Liberal but Moore is vulnerable.

Then which of the teal independents are in trouble? A couple may lose but not many.

Hard to see more than an optimistic +5 for the LNP imho which only gets them to 63 seats.

All depends on who they have running in the seats.....if they continue down the ultra right wing, Pentecostal route then they are in big big trouble.

Also need to remember Federal ICAC will be coming in before the next election.

 

[geoffjennings79]

Is this a satire thread? OP wasn't even all that funny or clever, and the "thesis" joke fell flat too.

2/10

 

[Johnny Karate]

Which seats are the Coalition gaining next election?
Qld- already pretty good for LNP. Trouble if Warren Entsch retires.
Tassie- always unpredictable. Does Bridget Archer quit the Liberal party before 2025..?
SA- nothing really to change there.
NT- both likely holds. Either a very slight chance of flipping albeit Dutton's comments this past week haven't helped.
ACT- all three look very safe ALP.
Vic- Libs on the nose.
NSW- a couple of possible gains in Gilmore and Bennelong.
WA- Tangney is a strong chance to return Liberal but Moore is vulnerable.

Then which of the teal independents are in trouble? A couple may lose but not many.

Hard to see more than an optimistic +5 for the LNP imho which only gets them to 63 seats.

This. How the hell are they picking up 20 seats to win back government in 2025 if all they’ve got is 1. culture wars and 2. “we’re not laybah”?

 

[Gough]

This. How the hell are they picking up 20 seats to win back government in 2025 if all they’ve got is 1. culture wars and 2. “we’re not laybah”?

Same mentality that has Frydo sailing in to right the ship. Big on intent, very short on details.

 

[Johnny Karate]

Same mentality that has Frydo sailing in to right the ship. Big on intent, very short on details.

Much like Morrison and Abbott staying on, Frydenberg coming back would only confirm that noone in the private sector would give him a job. A stunningly low bar, given the amount of taxpayer money that would’ve been siphoned off to corporate donors during their time in government. To think they couldn’t even get a job as a talking head idiot for Sky News or as a lobbyist for some mining concern that wants to blow up a cultural site or village in a developing nation. Completely and utterly talentless.

 

[Gough]

Much like Morrison and Abbott staying on, Frydenberg coming back would only confirm that noone in the private sector would give him a job. A stunningly low bar, given the amount of taxpayer money that would’ve been siphoned off to corporate donors during their time in government. To think they couldn’t even get a job as a talking head idiot for Sky News or as a lobbyist for some mining concern that wants to blow up a cultural site or village in a developing nation. Completely and utterly talentless.

Even if he was willing and able, what seat would he run in? Melbourne is almost completely out of the question leaving a Sydney seat more likely if he wants to make a comeback, and you only need ask Kristina Kenneally how that can turn out for a blow in however highly decorated they are.

 

[NSWCROW]

" Ads " new account ?

 

[Todman]

I agree with you mate. Housing is going to crash 50%.

Housing wont drop by 50%. Prices will soften every time there is a rate rise. They are propping up the housing market by record immigration.
Also the State governments heavily rely on stamp duty from the sales of housing. They don't want to slay the golden goose.

 

[royale with cheese]

Housing wont drop by 50%. Prices will soften every time there is a rate rise. They are propping up the housing market by record immigration.
Also the State governments heavily rely on stamp duty from the sales of housing. They don't want to slay the golden goose.

Yeah no chance of a house crash. They'll just up the immigrant intake.

 

[Home Alone]

Yeah no chance of a house crash. They'll just up the immigrant intake.

Is that a pro or con for the thesis.

On SM-A515F using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[royale with cheese]

Is that a pro or con for the thesis.

I don't think Liberals can win the next election, too far back to do so. But I do believe most of Australia will become less liveable in the next 10 years due to mass immigration, housing shortages, infrastructure shortfalls, and an inability to rein in inflation / interest rates.

 

[schneebly111]

I don't think Liberals can win the next election, too far back to do so. But I do believe most of Australia will become less liveable in the next 10 years due to mass immigration, housing shortages, infrastructure shortfalls, and an inability to rein in inflation / interest rates.

That's been going on for a long time, mostly under Liberal governments, didn't seem to affect their electability too much.