Matthew Guy. Can a mediocre leader with a 3rd rate team win government?

[Not Important]

you have been sucked into this myth that Holmes A'Court money won these races. It didnt.

Most of the money teals raised in the fed was from small donors. His funding was essentially starter seed funding, but then their own arrangements kicked off. Also while Ryan raised a buttload of money, so did Frydo. The Libs at one stage had Frydo on pretty much every billboard in the electorate (and im not exaggerating). On election day, he had volunteers shipped in from all over victoria to work his booths (I was a split booth, minority Kooyong, and the Kooyong libs outnumbered by alp volunteers more than 2-1)

now for the state you will go the funding cap. That is a non issue, because as mentioned above the libs spent just as much in Kooyong as the teals did. and also if was fudged pretty badly IMO

question for you. how did the libs afford to pay for flights and accom to bring qld volunteers down to melbourne to work the prepoll and election day given the restraints in place?

and re: the teals and their volunteers, there has been the rumour that they were all ship in's from green and alp electorates to undermine the libs. two things i can say on this (from what i saw at my booth), they were all locals (and I didnt have that with mine for the ALP), and the same faces for Ryan were there for the state election. It was a true grassroots movement, and I think people grossly underestimate how important this was

now ned, you keep cherry picking bits of posts.


first principles. u put that it was labor running dead that gave the teals seats. nonsense. it contributed, as i said, that's all. but unless all of the following occurred the teals would not have garnered the number of seats they did federally. high profile candidates. while small donors made significant contributions the teals funds the (millions) from holmes a court to facilitate the publicity was significant. particularly in kicking it off. as was his advice/input. a well targeted strong social media and general publicity campaign.without them the persuasion necessary to convert other party votes into teal votes would not have happened.

there were also key mistakes made by the incumbents in some seats.

evidence.

[1] the long piece in the tissues last week on the ann capling who was the heart and soul of the kooyong campaign, including picking monique. somehow think she should know.

[2] the fact none of the key matters i referred 2 occurred in vic and the results showed.


[3] i receive regular emails from key kooyong peeps, and they have at various times endorsed my point of view. including the wonderful member.

labor merely running dead, without the persuasiveness i mentioned, would have amounted 2 a hill of beans.

 

[peetoo]

no, the best chance for the ALP to prevent a liberal win is to do exactly what they did in Kooyong (and didnt do in Hawthorn) - run dead

Lets look at the vote:

LIBS and Cookers: 45.3%

ALP and Greens: 33.2%

Then you have the 20% with the teal. For the ALP or Greens to win, they need nearly 75% of teal preferences. Thats not happening, which is why the Libs won.

If the Teal had finished 2nd on the second last preference wash (and not 3rd), she would have had a better chance of winning, thanks to the ALP and Greens preferencing the Teals much more strongly that the Teals preference them

To see the Libs lose, the ALP and the Greens cannot win without a Teal, AND they both have to run dead so as to funnel their vote to the Teal

Which was my reasoning to vote teal v frydenburg

However hawthorn had. Sitting ALP member and little danger of lnp gaining govt.

Now pessuto is sitting, the game now changed for 2026

 

[peetoo]

i acknowledged that labor running dead was a factor, ned. but the waaaaay bigger matter was getting liberals 2 change their vote. it was the only way teals in 2 of the seats i am familiar with won. 1 of them has publicly acknowledged that fact. and that occurred due to the choice of high profile candidates. and holmes a court's millions and campaigning strategy. non of which occurred in victoria.

It wasn’t so much the lib voters switching between elections, but the ones who deserted in th previous two elections not swinging back to lnp, but going to minors
Btw the teal candidate said clearly ‘I hav e been selected as independent for hawthorn’ that is an oxymoron. An independent does not need to be selected

 

[Ned_Flanders]

now ned, you keep cherry picking bits of posts.


first principles. u put that it was labor running dead that gave the teals seats. nonsense. it contributed, as i said, that's all. but unless all of the following occurred the teals would not have garnered the number of seats they did federally. high profile candidates. while small donors made significant contributions the teals funds the (millions) from holmes a court to facilitate the publicity was significant. particularly in kicking it off. as was his advice/input. a well targeted strong social media and general publicity campaign.without them the persuasion necessary to convert other party votes into teal votes would not have happened.

there were also key mistakes made by the incumbents in some seats.

evidence.

[1] the long piece in the tissues last week on the ann capling who was the heart and soul of the kooyong campaign, including picking monique. somehow think she should know.

[2] the fact none of the key matters i referred 2 occurred in vic and the results showed.


[3] i receive regular emails from key kooyong peeps, and they have at various times endorsed my point of view. including the wonderful member.

labor merely running dead, without the persuasiveness i mentioned, would have amounted 2 a hill of beans.

You need to read up more on the funding, and less from Dutton talking points

 

[Ned_Flanders]

Which was my reasoning to vote teal v frydenburg

However hawthorn had. Sitting ALP member and little danger of lnp gaining govt.

Now pessuto is sitting, the game now changed for 2026

Alp was zero chance of holding.

We won it with a guy who was retired remember. It was the extent of the wave and frankly pot luck that delivered the win.

Having an incumbent however meant you cannot kill the seat, so...

 

[peetoo]

Also at one point. Fryzo went the “can labor voters preference me so that there s a’ moderate’ leader of the libs’

Clearly he knew the govt was lost at that stage

 

[Not Important]

You need to read up more on the funding, and less from Dutton talking points

dutton talking points - rofl

i quoted peeps in-the-know, ned. - ie insiders. knowledge well known by peeps who have a wider political view than someone who gets his info from telephone box size labor branch meetings and someone who cherry picks responses. thought u were politically on-the-ball. oh well!

 

[Not Important]

Also at one point. Fryzo went the “can labor voters preference me so that there s a’ moderate’ leader of the libs’

Clearly he knew the govt was lost at that stage

probably. but still thought he'd hold his seat.

made a lot of mistakes did someone who has been around and in the political scene 4 so long. aligning himself so strongly 2 scummo and s**t canning vic when the state was down were but 2

 

[Ned_Flanders]

dutton talking points - rofl

i quoted peeps in-the-know, ned. - ie insiders. knowledge well known by peeps who have a wider political view than someone who gets his info from telephone box size labor branch meetings and someone who cherry picks responses. thought u were politically on-the-ball. oh well!

LOL, the AEC publishes the data

This is from the Daily Mail, so you cannot accuse it of being soy boy propaganda

Teal independents revealed as highest spending election candidates

Allegra Spender spent $2,124,058 to oust Mr Sharma from the blue ribbon seat of Wentworth in Sydney's eastern suburbs while two others ousted high-profile Liberal MPs in Melbourne.

www.dailymail.co.uk

Six teal independents bankrolled by more than $10million in donations were the largest spending independent candidates in this year's Federal election, new data has revealed.

The teals - who all won seats in parliament in May - were the first six in the top 10 biggest-spending independent candidates.

The 10 highest spenders splashed out a combined $12.2m on political campaigns during this year's election.

New Wentworth MP Allegra Spender spent more than any other independent candidate, according to Australian Electoral Commission figures released this week.

She spent a whopping $2,124,058 to oust former diplomat Dave Sharma from the blue-ribbon seat in Sydney's eastern suburbs.

Two other independents splashed out a combined $3.7m to oust high-profile Liberal MPs from their Melbourne seats.

Wentworth MP Allegra Spender (pictured) spent more on her political campaign than any other independent candidate who ran in the federal election
Ms Spender received $1.9million in donations while the Climate 200 group headed by activist Simon Holmes à Court chipped in $701,776.

The daughter of late fashion designer Carla Zampatti also received $25,000 from Alex Turnbull, the son of former Coalition prime minister Malcolm Turnbull.

Dr Monique Ryan wasn't far behind, spending a massive $2,122,231 to oust then-federal treasurer Josh Frydenberg in the Melbourne seat of Kooyong.

She was followed by former ABC journalist turned Goldstein MP Zoe Daniel who spent almost $1.6million to grab Liberal Tim Wilson's seat.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...cheering-Three-Lions.html?ico=related-replace
New North Sydney MP Kylea Tink ($1.4million) and Mackellar MP Sophie Scamps ($1.2million) also spent up big to claim a first three-year term in parliament.

Western Australian-based Curtin MP Kate Chaney spent just under $1million in her successful quest.

The seventh highest spending independent candidate was another teal, former Winter Olympic medallist Zali Steggall who spent almost $800,000 to secure a second term as Warringah MP on Sydney's northern beaches.

Independent candidates Rob Priestly, Carolyn Heise and Georgia Steele each spent around $700,000 but were all unsuccessful in their quests to be elected.

Following the release of the AEC figures, Dr Ryan paid tribute to her 3,762 donors who raised $1.8million.

'The people of Kooyong knew that going up against one of the most powerful incumbent politicians in the country to put a community independent in parliament would be tough,' she tweeted.

'But when we work together, we can achieve the (previously) impossible.'

But Liberal MP Alan Tudge said Ms Ryan's funding was 'probably the most concentrated and least transparent funding of any campaign in Australia's history'.

Mr Tudge said $1.1m of the Kooyong independent's campaign funding came from 12 wealthy individuals or entities, including $20,232 from Mr Holmes à Court.

Dr Ryan also received $100,000 from LB Conservation, $50,000 from Brian Snape and $20,000 each from Jacqueline Yates and Keep Them Honest.

Ms Scamps, who raised $1.56m from 828 donors, said Climate 200 matched the $779,000 raised from the community on a dollar-for-dollar basis.

'The fact that 66 per cent of the donations I received during the election campaign were $100 or less, while a third were $50 or less, shows the extent to which my campaign was driven and powered by the community,' she said.

 

[kalex6251]

pardon the pun but its a bit rich claiming teals are the highest spending candidates when neither labor or conservatives have lodged their financials for the election .... its well rumoured frydenberg spent way more than ryan .... and were likely never going to know the full cost for either major party given the opaque reporting rules around election spends that conveniently favour them

 

[Not Important]

LOL, the AEC publishes the data

This is from the Daily Mail, so you cannot accuse it of being soy boy propaganda

Teal independents revealed as highest spending election candidates

Allegra Spender spent $2,124,058 to oust Mr Sharma from the blue ribbon seat of Wentworth in Sydney's eastern suburbs while two others ousted high-profile Liberal MPs in Melbourne.

www.dailymail.co.uk

Six teal independents bankrolled by more than $10million in donations were the largest spending independent candidates in this year's Federal election, new data has revealed.

The teals - who all won seats in parliament in May - were the first six in the top 10 biggest-spending independent candidates.

The 10 highest spenders splashed out a combined $12.2m on political campaigns during this year's election.

New Wentworth MP Allegra Spender spent more than any other independent candidate, according to Australian Electoral Commission figures released this week.

She spent a whopping $2,124,058 to oust former diplomat Dave Sharma from the blue-ribbon seat in Sydney's eastern suburbs.

Two other independents splashed out a combined $3.7m to oust high-profile Liberal MPs from their Melbourne seats.

Wentworth MP Allegra Spender (pictured) spent more on her political campaign than any other independent candidate who ran in the federal election
Ms Spender received $1.9million in donations while the Climate 200 group headed by activist Simon Holmes à Court chipped in $701,776.

The daughter of late fashion designer Carla Zampatti also received $25,000 from Alex Turnbull, the son of former Coalition prime minister Malcolm Turnbull.

Dr Monique Ryan wasn't far behind, spending a massive $2,122,231 to oust then-federal treasurer Josh Frydenberg in the Melbourne seat of Kooyong.

She was followed by former ABC journalist turned Goldstein MP Zoe Daniel who spent almost $1.6million to grab Liberal Tim Wilson's seat.
Weeping WAGs brush away their tears after England's 1-2 loss to France
New North Sydney MP Kylea Tink ($1.4million) and Mackellar MP Sophie Scamps ($1.2million) also spent up big to claim a first three-year term in parliament.

Western Australian-based Curtin MP Kate Chaney spent just under $1million in her successful quest.

The seventh highest spending independent candidate was another teal, former Winter Olympic medallist Zali Steggall who spent almost $800,000 to secure a second term as Warringah MP on Sydney's northern beaches.

Independent candidates Rob Priestly, Carolyn Heise and Georgia Steele each spent around $700,000 but were all unsuccessful in their quests to be elected.

Following the release of the AEC figures, Dr Ryan paid tribute to her 3,762 donors who raised $1.8million.

'The people of Kooyong knew that going up against one of the most powerful incumbent politicians in the country to put a community independent in parliament would be tough,' she tweeted.

'But when we work together, we can achieve the (previously) impossible.'

But Liberal MP Alan Tudge said Ms Ryan's funding was 'probably the most concentrated and least transparent funding of any campaign in Australia's history'.

Mr Tudge said $1.1m of the Kooyong independent's campaign funding came from 12 wealthy individuals or entities, including $20,232 from Mr Holmes à Court.

Dr Ryan also received $100,000 from LB Conservation, $50,000 from Brian Snape and $20,000 each from Jacqueline Yates and Keep Them Honest.

Ms Scamps, who raised $1.56m from 828 donors, said Climate 200 matched the $779,000 raised from the community on a dollar-for-dollar basis.

'The fact that 66 per cent of the donations I received during the election campaign were $100 or less, while a third were $50 or less, shows the extent to which my campaign was driven and powered by the community,' she said.

u keep cherry picking stuff, ned. u wrote that labor not running hard in some electorates was the reason peeps like monique ryan and zoe daniel won. i have said repeatedly that it was a factor but only a factor and gave reasons -e.g other factors - from 1st hand sources. you're all over the place m8.

i've never questioned the financial input of donations or their value. i was one who 'input'. but without holmes a court's over $6m 2 kick it off and support 4 such things as the court challenge by zoe over wilson's signs, together with his other support the so-called 'teal' campaign would not have been the outstanding success it was. the evidence is the poor performance of the teals in vic.

 

[Not Important]

victorian's definitely dodged a bullet there.

 

[Maggie5]

Mathew Guy should really check who else he will be dining with before accepting invitations.

 

[Not Important]

Mathew Guy should really check who else he will be dining with before accepting invitations.

but, but, but they're his mates.

 

[peetoo]

Spender has come out and said the govt should cut spending to control inflation.

Ya cant make this stuff up


Edit. I reckon fryzo out spender the, ya couldn’t walk 100m without seeing a fryzo billboard

 

[kalex6251]

grab the popcorn folks .... this $hitfight is about to get interesting

 

[western royboy]

grab the popcorn folks .... this $hitfight is about to get interesting

Yes this is exactly what is needed a bunch of religious nuts running the show…sure to attract voters

 

[Jascave]

Yes this is exactly what is needed a bunch of religious nuts running the show…sure to attract voters

This is not what the Victorian Liberals need right now-another leadership spill. And it will play right into Daniel Andrews's hands.

 

[peetoo]

Not even bothering with a pesutto thread?

 

[Festerz]

This is not what the Victorian Liberals need right now-another leadership spill. And it will play right into Daniel Andrews's hands.

LOL. Dan Andrews is just s few months away from having achieved a record breaking landslide victory - his third in a row. His hands are calloused from the Libs playing into his hands for a decade.

Rather than worrying about Dan Andrews and keeping someone in the job as leader just for the heck of it, what the Liberals need - at Federal and State level across the nation - is to come up with a set of policies that are in tune with what the voters of Australia actually want.

That requires a willingness to completely overhaul their policy and membership at grass roots level to get people as candidates who actually GAF about the needs of others, rather than playing partisan identity politics on everything.

 

[geoffjennings79]

LOL. Dan Andrews is just s few months away from having achieved a record breaking landslide victory - his third in a row. His hands are calloused from the Libs playing into his hands for a decade.

Rather than worrying about Dan Andrews and keeping someone in the job as leader just for the heck of it, what the Liberals need - at Federal and State level across the nation - is to come up with a set of policies that are in tune with what the voters of Australia actually want.

That requires a willingness to completely overhaul their policy and membership at grass roots level to get people as candidates who actually GAF about the needs of others, rather than playing partisan identity politics on everything.

They are now beyond being able to steer their party back to your points in paragraphs 2 and 3. The RWNJs have taken over the party federally and in Vic, and elsewhere. Dutton is beholden to them, and Pesutto - for all his fake posturing - looks like he doesn't control anything. Leader only in name - can't even speak out against Deeming's speech. Guy ditched Finn because of the looming election. Pesutto can't even caution Deeming. Any moderate remnants of the LNP in Vic are also jumping ship according to that Age article. They are a rabble.

 

[Baltimore Jack]

This is not what the Victorian Liberals need right now-another leadership spill. And it will play right into Daniel Andrews's hands.

When there is an election right around the corner in 4 years time

 

[Gralin]

Lol I had absolutely forgotten about this

Bottleneck blitz: Liberals leader Matthew Guy promises to remove 55 road intersections

More than 50 of Melbourne's busiest and most dangerous road intersections will be removed by replacing traffic lights and roundabouts with underpasses if the Coalition wins government next year.

www.theage.com.au