Europe War in Ukraine - Thread 3

[Saint]

Bakhmut is suffering an unseasonable amount of snow. The Russians are getting nowhere quickly but losing thousands of soldiers. Ukranian counter not far away and I believe it will be devastating to Russia. Last time there was a counter Putin tried to call for a cease fire but everyone saw right through it.

I don't think they were prepared to defend any positions behind their advance last year, since they just assumed it would be over in a week.

Since then they've had time to plan and organise their defence.

 

[Zidane98]

The traditional rivalry of the tribes continues. Toss on a dose of religion & its only a matter of where next.

The Ukraine invasion is all about empirical expansion, not tribes. After all both countries are slavic and the majority in both nations follow the same religion. There's no tribal rivalry here at all.

The age of empirical expansion is long gone. When was the last empirical invasion conducted? Saddam trying to absorb Kuwait into Iraq? All of the great empires (French, British etc) have all been ceding territory since WW2. Not attempting to expand. Russia stands alone as the only modern day nation currently trying to expand its empire. Whether that be Georgia, Transistria, Ukraine or Belarus. The clear aim here by Putin is to create USSR 2.0 lite. He deludedly believes Russia is the successor to the Kievan Rus (not true either - it is a product of the Grand Duchy of Moscow).


The only other possibility I can see is China trying to reclaim Taiwan but that hasn't happened - yet.


The UN is supposed to prevent these sorts of attempts to expand empires but the Russians keep vetoing resolutions about it.

 

[bourbons]

So punish people for someone else’s actions?

Unsure why the onus would be on Ukraine to look after those people. Russia's responsibility surely, they are the ones doing the punishing simply by being there.

Not overly complicated I would have thought.

 

[Chief]

So punish people for someone else’s actions?

They can always leave.

 

[Zidane98]

Unsure why the onus would be on Ukraine to look after those people. Russia's responsibility surely, they are the ones doing the punishing simply by being there.

Not overly complicated I would have thought.

Yep. Russians could easily guarantee the safety of the water supply to Crimea by immediately ceasing all attacks on Ukranian civilian infrastructure and unilaterally withdrawing from Ukraine. It's a bit much to expect Ukraine having to guarantee the water supply when under constant attack from Russians using that very same water supply. They are busy enough having to repair infrastructure destroyed by unprovoked Russian random attacks.


It's not like there aren't other alternatives available either. Build a desal plant. Truck water in from Rostov (when the Kerch bridge is available). Build an undersea pipeline from Rostov. If these projects were completed to supply Crimeans with water and Ukraine specifically targeted them then that would be a serious problem for Ukraine.

 

[Kwality]

But the importance of religion is waning. There's no such thing as a crusade any more, democracies don't allow it.

Almost all of NATO's countries wouldn't have official state religions and they're all becoming less influential.

It's not "where next", it's which of their neighbours will come on-board and stop the silliness of border skirmishes. It's gradually moving further east. This invasion by Russia is practically the last attempt by a belligerent Russia to shift a border before Ukraine joins NATO/EU and it becomes impossible.

The only move I see going forward is independence movements from within, but not to join a neighbour. (i.e. Scotland) or maybe an Irish reunification, but I can't see any becoming anything like a battle.

This dismissive attitude of "where next" or happens all the time is nonsense. It doesn't have to happen all the time. It shouldn't ever happen.

Did you miss the role of the Russian Orthodox:

The one body of ideologically committed agents supporting the invasion was the Russian Orthodox Church. Beyond its efforts to support Russian information operations, its priests were widely recruited and run by the Russian special services37 and their monasteries and churches used as safe houses for equipment and personnel.38 The use of religion as cover is not only a widely established method of the Russian special services but also creates its own protection mechanism because of the political sensitivities of state targeting of religious institutions.39 For this reason, it took some time for the Ukrainian state to move to constrain the activities of these parts of Russia’s support apparatus even after the invasion.40

I have no issue with the tribes of Europe squabllng, just leave the rest of the world out of sorting it. Its not as if the EU/EC arent quick to tell the rest of the world what & where to do their bidding for its own benefit.

 

[Kwality]

It is not a tribal border dispute. It is a murdering of people from another nation that has been invaded. The trick is to have a brain and understand this

Just like the Hutu & the Tutsi. They murdered each other & its wasnt the first time either.

Sorry if you are offended, it strips away the nicer points of calling the opponents nations, as if there is something civilised about what is happening.

So apply that brain of yours.

 

[faible]

Yep. Russians could easily guarantee the safety of the water supply to Crimea by immediately ceasing all attacks on Ukranian civilian infrastructure and unilaterally withdrawing from Ukraine. It's a bit much to expect Ukraine having to guarantee the water supply when under constant attack from Russians using that very same water supply. They are busy enough having to repair infrastructure destroyed by unprovoked Russian random attacks.


It's not like there aren't other alternatives available either. Build a desal plant. Truck water in from Rostov (when the Kerch bridge is available). Build an undersea pipeline from Rostov. If these projects were completed to supply Crimeans with water and Ukraine specifically targeted them then that would be a serious problem for Ukraine.

Excuse me Ukraine, can you please send us some fuel to fill our planes so we can bomb your cities please?

 

[Zidane98]

Excuse me Ukraine, can you please send us some fuel to fill our planes so we can bomb your cities please?

I'm sure there will be an official complaint from the Russians that the Ukranians are not respecting the long term lease for Sevastopol naval base by attacking it with air and seaborne drones. Vlad did say that the Ukranians "started the war by taking out the Kerch bridge".

 

[Visions]

I don't think they were prepared to defend any positions behind their advance last year, since they just assumed it would be over in a week.

Since then they've had time to plan and organise their defence.

Defences which will mainly be manned by mobiks who have limited training and will.

It all depends on how hard the initial attack by Ukraine is. If the Russian defences are breached quite easily, then like dominoes, whatever is behind can quite easily fall quickly as the orcs run away despondent.

What can be assumed though is that due to logistics and manpower the counter attack wont be along the whole frontline, but only a particular stretch to maximise impact like the south or Luhansk regions, so the expectations that everything will be liberated soon is highly unlikely.

It however may be enough to take a large chunk of territory back to shape future offensives and which may be persuade those in the FSB to reconsider Putins future.

 

[Power Raid]

They can always leave.

That’s what Putin said about his victims

 

[footyfan1978]

Just like the Hutu & the Tutsi. They murdered each other & its wasnt the first time either.

You are an obnoxious clown.
Waste of time talking anything serious with you.

 

[Crankyhawk]

That’s what Putin said about his victims

there have been perhaps 2 components of this water question that have been conflated.
Do you think that Ukraine CURRENTLY (in the middle of a shooting war) have an obligation to guarantee and repair water supplies for the civilian population of the HOSTILE country engaging in the shooting war, when there are multiple priorities?

2) In the future "peace" - let us assume Russia retains Crimea but doesn't have control of the water - is there an obligation for Ukraine to supply water guarantees or should they be able to extract some fair trade out of it?

 

[Power Raid]

there have been perhaps 2 components of this water question that have been conflated.
Do you think that Ukraine CURRENTLY (in the middle of a shooting war) have an obligation to guarantee and repair water supplies for the civilian population of the HOSTILE country engaging in the shooting war, when there are multiple priorities?

2) In the future "peace" - let us assume Russia retains Crimea but doesn't have control of the water - is there an obligation for Ukraine to supply water guarantees or should they be able to extract some fair trade out of it?

1) is east as Russia controls both the crimea and the water

2) the answer to this is simple, does the Ukraine want this area back? If so the answer is simple. Don’t be vengeful against third parties. Focus the hate on those responsible, not the victims.

 

[Crankyhawk]

1) is east as Russia controls both the crimea and the water

2) the answer to this is simple, does the Ukraine want this area back? If so the answer is simple. Don’t be vengeful against third parties. Focus the hate on those responsible, not the victims.

Re 1) you mean the question is moot/ irrelevant as Russia controls crimea and water. Does that mean that Ukraine is forbidden from attacking the water supply - though it could be used to generate war material from Crimea? (seems completely unrealistic and ridiculous given that they are copping missile attacks on civilian areas from the Russians)

2) what third party? crimea is part of russia now and I don't see a realistic way of Ukraine ever getting it back.

I do not think I will understand your desire to see Ukraine be fairer to Russia than Russia is to it. I do not understand your high moral ground argument - it is like arguing "the sky is orange"

 

[bourbons]

I do not think I will understand your desire to see Ukraine be fairer to Russia than Russia is to it. I do not understand your high moral ground argument - it is like arguing "the sky is orange"

This

Power Raid seems to be applying a high moral expectation to Ukraine and none whatsoever to Russia, its bizarre

 

[Chief]

2) the answer to this is simple, does the Ukraine want this area back? If so the answer is simple. Don’t be vengeful against third parties. Focus the hate on those responsible, not the victims.

Does Russia want water? If so, the answer is simple. Leave. Don't rape and kill the population.

Russia. Lies. All. The. Time.

They should get nothing without their own action up front. Nothing at all.

 

[wannabejack]

I do enjoy Ben Hodges' articles and videos. Apologies if I've posted this before.

Ukraine’s Road to Victory Runs Through Crimea

Lt-Gen (rtd.) Ben Hodges explains how and where Ukrainians should fight to expel Russia from Crimea and ultimately from Ukraine itself.

cepa.org

For Ukraine, the road to victory runs through Crimea. It is the key. It is the decisive terrain. Liberating Crimea, this year, will change everything in this war.
[Crimea can have their water]

Our focus should be on helping Ukraine liberate Crimea; it should be the main effort, while using “economy of force” in the east to slow/stop Russian ground attacks. Ukraine knows it will never be safe or secure so long as Russia occupies the peninsula. Any peace settlement which results in Russia holding onto this land would simply allow the Kremlin to wait two or three years until we, the West, lose interest, while in the meanwhile they rebuild the military, address their mistakes, and restart their war against Ukraine — that, after all, has been the pattern since 2008.

The liberation of Donbas won’t significantly change the strategic situation. The liberation of Crimea would be such a monumental defeat for Russia that I think the will to fight among Russian troops and “separatists” in the region would likely evaporate.

 

[footyfan1978]

Was curious to see any news in Armenia with respect to ICC.
Can only find this but I still wonder whether it a trap for Putin.
I suspect he will never set foot in Armenia to be on the safe side.

Armenia's vice-speaker says Yerevan won't try to arrest Putin once it ratifies ICC statute

Hakob Arshakyan, the Vice-President of the Armenian National Assembly, has said that the ruling Civil Contract party has no intention of arresting ...

intellinews.com

 

[Gavin Excell]

Is there any evidence to suggest Putins position within Russia is more vulnerable?

Have read a few articles recently suggesting this but not sure if wishful thinking rather than anything real

 

[Mobbs]

Just like the Hutu & the Tutsi. They murdered each other & its wasnt the first time either.

Sorry if you are offended, it strips away the nicer points of calling the opponents nations, as if there is something civilised about what is happening.

So apply that brain of yours.

Nobody's offended. They're just pointing out that you're wrong.

 

[Mobbs]

Unsure why the onus would be on Ukraine to look after those people. Russia's responsibility surely, they are the ones doing the punishing simply by being there.

Not overly complicated I would have thought.

I should break into his garage and jack his car and then get all pissed off that he won't unlock the roller door for me.

 

[Mobbs]

Defences which will mainly be manned by mobiks who have limited training and will.

It all depends on how hard the initial attack by Ukraine is. If the Russian defences are breached quite easily, then like dominoes, whatever is behind can quite easily fall quickly as the orcs run away despondent.

What can be assumed though is that due to logistics and manpower the counter attack wont be along the whole frontline, but only a particular stretch to maximise impact like the south or Luhansk regions, so the expectations that everything will be liberated soon is highly unlikely.

It however may be enough to take a large chunk of territory back to shape future offensives and which may be persuade those in the FSB to reconsider Putins future.

There is rumour that police forces in the big towns are now being tapped for resources to replace tiring forces in the Donbas.

 

[Chief]

That’s what Putin said about his victims

Putin has no moral standing.

Ukraine does.

No idea why you're being obtuse about this.

 

[Power Raid]

Collapse of Putin's Russia has begun, Ukraine official predicts

Oleksiy Danilov, the secretary of Ukraine's National Security and Defense Council, said the West must be on high alert, having failed to be ready for the collapse of the Soviet Union.

www.dailymail.co.uk

I’m not sure on what basis Russia will collapse

The nation is forecast to have good GDP growth, the sanctions aren’t working, china has commenced the program to produce their own silicon chips to mitigate reliance on the west.

Putin won’t be around forever but his replacement will be worse and by ruling with an iron fist, no break up will happen but rather see more of the same.