Prediction 2024 Fixture Predictions

[Section 5]

We're a chance to sell out every game at the Gabba except for the GWS one I reckon.

Only if our form holds up. Brisbane people don't like following losing teams.

 

[Section 5]

The excitement as each game is announced has been a highlight for me this year

What about Gunstons extended contract

 

[CarterS]

Only if our form holds up. Brisbane people don't like following losing teams.

Thats a myth if you ask me, compare our attendances when we were down, to the bottom Vic teams at the time (in games vs interstate teams), they aren't all that different.

 

[martinson]

Except for the Ashcroft and Payne injuries we had a perfect set up to have a crack at it this year and didn't quite get there.

I'm fairly phlegmatic about things like the draw. I don't think it's any crucial factor as long as we're able to get that first home final.

There's a lot of games , many things happen ,in the end this year it came down to the last 5 minutes.

The key for us is to get home finals and have a reasonably fit and healthy list.

Personally I took this year a little hard because the competition's getting tougher and we had as good as an opportunity as we could expect.

 

[Section 5]

Thats a myth if you ask me, compare our attendances when we were down, to the bottom Vic teams at the time (in games vs interstate teams), they aren't all that different.

You were talking about filling the Gabba for 10 games though.
It would take very good form for that to happen

 

[M Malice]

Except for the Ashcroft and Payne injuries we had a perfect set up to have a crack at it this year and didn't quite get there.

I'm fairly phlegmatic about things like the draw. I don't think it's any crucial factor as long as we're able to get that first home final.

There's a lot of games , many things happen ,in the end this year it came down to the last 5 minutes.

The key for us is to get home finals and have a reasonably fit and healthy list.

Personally I took this year a little hard because the competition's getting tougher and we had as good as an opportunity as we could expect.

The bolded goes for every club.

Yes I expect 2024 to be very tough, the clubs I can see improving substantially are the Crows, Giants, Suns and Swans.

Having a guess to fall out of the top 8 would be Saints, every other top 8 side from last year I can't see dropping off although historically at least a couple will.

In a few years and in hindsight 2023 could end up being the best chance at a flag this current core group of players ever got.

 

[KissKiss]

Another Mothers Day game is annoying. At least it's in the evening

 

[CarterS]

Fox Sports analysis- Grade: D-

Analysis: On the plus side, the three other preliminary finalists all have to come and play at the Gabba next year. On the negative side, that’s because they play two of 2023’s preliminary finalists twice, plus two games against Melbourne, plus two against finalist St Kilda, plus two against near-finalist Adelaide... there’s no other way to put it, this is a brutal set of double-ups. Combine that with a bizarre mix of home and away trips, which will see the Lions fly to WA twice and SA three times across the course of the season, and this is a damn tricky draw. They’ve still got the best home ground advantage in the comp, and if they’re winning at least eight or nine games at the Gabba, that’s a huge headstart for making the top four again. But that’s going to happen every year no matter what - in terms of what the AFL actually controls, the Lions have copped the short straw. At the extremes a tough fixture can make a team lose one extra game (via an accumulation of disadvantages) and they may be that team.

 

[Section 5]

Some journalist doing the work for us all.

However, i do wish the foxsports articles would remove the GF result that is on all articles

Winners and losers: Who cashed in on AFL’s ‘weighted’ 2024 fixture as Dimma gifted dream run

Winners and losers: Who cashed in on AFL’s ‘weighted’ fixture as Dimma gifted dream run

www.foxsports.com.au

 

[lioninthesand]

Harder the draw the better, practice winning on the road and in hostile settings as much as possible.

Wish us Vic fans got 6 games but other than that, looks fine!

 

[dlanod]

Really pleased we are not playing in Tasmania, Ballarat or Geelong!

Underrated feature - good point given how often we get sent to Shitsville to play games. Inconvenient, risky and substandard.

 

[FeastOrFamine]

Instagram post by fox footy says we've got the hardest draw. Lots of tough games on the road + only two games at the 'G. Personally I'm disappointed that the team isn't coming to Sydney this year - Canberra is just a bridge too far.

Our double ups are doozy's to say the least. Each one of those teams could give us a bloody nose on their day. On a positive note we've got plenty of prime time which is always good.

 

[DevRoboGun]

I personally would rather finish 4th with a tough draw and be absolutely battle hardened come finals time than finish 2nd with a soft draw and slip up in the finals. Last years GF loss + a tough draw this year means even if we finish 3/4 we are gonna be absolutely ready to go in september.

 

[irel]

Yep, a lot of VIC teams are untouchable with there lack of travel yet we get 2xWA, 3xSA, 1xACT (Sydney fans burned again) and only 5xVIC including only two at the G.

Shame one each of those WA and SA games aren’t in VIC for our big fan base down there.

Also why do we get Hawks at Marvel; isn’t their home ground MCG?

I take offence to this. Perhaps more consideration to the long suffering WA supporters who have hardly seen their team.

 

[irel]

Interstate club makes a granny gets whacked as expected …. Just shows how a lost opportunity that game was.

I see you live in QLD so every other state should be an interstate to you. Why do you refer to yourself as an inter-stater. Such a victim, defeatist view.

 

[Gadzorks]

Normally I'm a bit meh about the draw - there's always differences from the expected difficulty but I think the two WA trips are ... Unfair.

We have previously dropped a training day after the long trip. Big disruption, extra day away and less training. Shouldn't have to do it twice.

 

[Bucking Beads]

We will finish top 2 so all good. This team knows it is time.

 

[lionsrules]

I see you live in QLD so every other state should be an interstate to you. Why do you refer to yourself as an inter-stater. Such a victim, defeatist view.

Huh what?? no that wasn't the angle I was playing. I was referring that because interstate teams generally travel every second week (which is totally fine) and we made the grand final we would get a tough draw as expected. You finish at the top end and for equalisation we get a tougher draw. My disappointment is that we couldn't pinch a cup and have the tougher draw. You get to see the lions twice... hooray for you, no one is trying to take that away from you or sook about it.

 

[M Malice]

Looking at our first 4 Perth and Adelaide trips travel factor.

Coming into our round 1 game at Optus v the Dockers we have a 9 day break from our opening fixture v the Blues @ Gabba.... we then have a bye which gives us an 11 day break heading into the Easter Thursday gave v the Premiers.

Next is the Kangaroos in round 4 off a 8 day break v Magpies @ Gabba.... going into a game v Demons round 5 @ Gabba off a 6 day break.

Next is Crows in round 9 coming off a 7 day break from round 8 v Suns @ Gabba... going into a game v Tigers in round 10 @ Gabba off a 6 day break.

Next is Port in round 15 coming off a 8 day break v Saints @ Gabba.... going into a game v the Demons @ Gabba in round 16 which is a date and time TBC.
_______________________________
Our game v Eagles late in the season is also bookended by games @ Gabba... date and time TBC.

Decent breaks and we also have games before and after at the Gabba so not back to back travels, not much to complain about there IMO.

 

[KissKiss]

So its rough we got all the extra travel but they didnt double screw us with extra short breaks on that travel. Still the club will have to be smart about how we approach all the long trips. I'll make my early call about being smart about resting older/younger players from games around those trips - ie we shouldnt push to risk a guy like Zorko to play over in West Coast if he was playing the weeks before and after

Also I do think its good we are playing West Coast away. Too many years of us not playing them in Perth is stupid. The home/away balance we have against WC and Freo is nuts

 

[rye]

So its rough we got all the extra travel but they didnt double screw us with extra short breaks on that travel. Still the club will have to be smart about how we approach all the long trips. I'll make my early call about being smart about resting older/younger players from games around those trips - ie we shouldnt push to risk a guy like Zorko to play over in West Coast if he was playing the weeks before and after

Also I do think its good we are playing West Coast away. Too many years of us not playing them in Perth is stupid. The home/away balance we have against WC and Freo is nuts

zorko and arguably neale are the two guys we should try manage through the year. unless neale wants to go to WA so he can see family id give him a week off against west coast for example

 

[Gibbo_88]

zorko and arguably neale are the two guys we should try manage through the year. unless neale wants to go to WA so he can see family id give him a week off against west coast for example

Strong disagree with managing Neale at this stage of his career. If you're winning the brownlow, you're unlikely to need to have your body managed.

 

[twhowler]

Looking at our first 4 Perth and Adelaide trips travel factor.

Coming into our round 1 game at Optus v the Dockers we have a 9 day break from our opening fixture v the Blues @ Gabba.... we then have a bye which gives us an 11 day break heading into the Easter Thursday gave v the Premiers.

Next is the Kangaroos in round 4 off a 8 day break v Magpies @ Gabba.... going into a game v Demons round 5 @ Gabba off a 6 day break.

Next is Crows in round 9 coming off a 7 day break from round 8 v Suns @ Gabba... going into a game v Tigers in round 10 @ Gabba off a 6 day break.

Next is Port in round 15 coming off a 8 day break v Saints @ Gabba.... going into a game v the Demons @ Gabba in round 16 which is a date and time TBC.
_______________________________
Our game v Eagles late in the season is also bookended by games @ Gabba... date and time TBC.

Decent breaks and we also have games before and after at the Gabba so not back to back travels, not much to complain about there IMO

Good points. None of these breaks should be an excuse.

Huge bonus not going to Ballarat, Geelong or Tassie as they are such banana peel games for us.

If we are going to be contenders we will be very good at the gabba again. So let's just assume we drop 0-2 games there, it almost doesn't matter who we play there if it's anything like last year.

Meaning how hard our draw is, despite the media ratings, is 100% about how hard it is on the road and how tough it is in terms of breaks.

Only one 5 day break so far and our opponent also has a 5 day break. Giants play away week before the game, we play them away for the actual game, so that's about even.

As for the difficulty of away games:

Freo at Optus - they will probably be worse this year, we should be strong favourites
Melb at MCG - tough game but we know we can beat them there, depends how we are both going but probably 40/60 game to them if we are being realistic
Giants at manuka - interesting match, definitely tough but we are 2-0 at manuka so right in it, will be interesting to see if giants can keep momentum going, let's call it a 50/50 match and be pessimistic
Adelaide away - pretty tough game, maybe again a 40/60 to them
Hawks at docklands - not a great venue for them, strong faves
Dogs at docklands - a middling team really, we will be favourites i think
Port away - tough game BUT port are not automatic winners. Sadly i think they are much better during the day time, calling this a 40/60 game to them
west coast - should win
Suns - round 20 will they be going well or struggling by then? who knows. call it 50/50
saints - think they tread water, not an easy game but we should be faves
pies mcg - very tough obviously. can we hope for a premiership hangover by then? they are not a young side. again who knows but for now call it 40/60 to them

Some tough games here for sure. By my reckoning up to 6 games where we are starting underdog or 50/50.

The most likely path to top 2 is:

9-10 wins out of 11 at gabba
2-3 wins of the tough 6 games above
At least 5 wins of remaining away games

Gives us at least 16 wins which we got this year.

 

[irish]

At least no Geelong, Ballarat or Tasmania games

tassie would be way better than 2 trips to perth

 

[twhowler]

tassie would be way better than 2 trips to perth

I would probably swap a freo perth trip for hawks launceston in terms of what game we win. but it's close

def not eagles

i assumed once gather round was out we would not be playing north in hobart, and i'd much rather them at norwood than hobart, we nearly lost in hobart a few years ago