2024 Ladder Predictions

[carlton_99]

Lets cut to the chase, your basically predicting every unknown factor to go against us and for you. Isn't it obvious why that might seem a little unreasonable?

I know its a prediction thread and I'm just querying your predictions, which as I understand it, is also allowed.

The only thing I am predicting to go against you is that Walters as a 33 year old will decline - I don't think this is a ridiculous expectation. I predict Amiss, Frederick, Sturt and Treacy all to improve. But with Schultz gone I am not confident in them being able to make up those lost goals.

With Carlton the only thing I am predicting is McKay gets back to his normal goalkicking we have seen in every year of his career bar pretty much 2023. Fantasia/Hollands are additions to the team so anything from them is just a bonus. I then expect Motlop to improve just like I expect any other 20 year old in the league to improve (i.e., Amiss).

Bottom line: Carlton did not lose anyone from their forward line. Fremantle to improve have to make up the lost goals from Shultz + more.

 

[Joao]

The only thing I am predicting to go against you is that Walters as a 33 year old will decline - I don't think this is a ridiculous expectation. I predict Amiss, Frederick, Sturt and Treacy all to improve. But with Schultz gone I am not confident in them being able to make up those lost goals.

With Carlton the only thing I am predicting is McKay gets back to his normal goalkicking we have seen in every year of his career bar pretty much 2023. Fantasia/Hollands are additions to the team so anything from them is just a bonus. I then expect Motlop to improve just like I expect any other 20 year old in the league to improve (i.e., Amiss).

Bottom line: Carlton did not lose anyone from their forward line. Fremantle to improve have to make up the lost goals from Shultz + more.

We lost 1.4 goals per game and we have at least 4 (because you left out Jackson) forwards who you agree can improve. We didn't lose peak Eddie Betts, we lost a role player. A good one, but not some offensive juggernaut.

And its not like we don't get to play someone in Schultz's place. Even Banfield averaged 0.8 goals last year. So that leaves 0.6 to cover, from up to 5 (just leave it there) forwards under the age of 24.

Walters may decline, just like McKay might not beat his yips. I don't see any reason to grant one is more likely than the other.

Hollands is unproven - could be gun but who knows. Fantasia I concede would make a big difference, but if you're skeptical about Walters then you can't take the idea of getting him on the park as likely. We have some speculative types but I'm not counting any chickens with any of them yet.


0.6 + Motlop = Amiss + Sturt + Treacy + Jackson + Frederick

I'll back us everyday of the week if the rest of the team pull their weight.

 

[carlton_99]

I'll back us everyday of the week if the rest of the team pull their weight.

That's fair enough it's your opinion - if Freo outscore Carlton this year than they should be in contention for a top 6-8 spot I would think. You have a pretty strong defence and a nice young midfield.

 

[Joao]

That's fair enough - if Freo outscore Carlton this year than they should be in contention for a top 6-8 spot I would think. You have a pretty strong defence and a nice young midfield.

I would likely agree. The problem is, its not the forwards I worry about (which is what triggered me). We didn't score because our midfield and turnover game was dog**** most of last year. Pav would have struggled to get a kick at times. Its the same reason Schultz leaving doesn't bother me. If we don't fix that big stuff, the little stuff like Schultz won't make any difference.

I think for you to finish top 2, you'll need most of those hypothetical improvements. McKay sorting it out would certainly help a lot.

 

[BennyGFunk]

We lost 1.4 goals per game and we have at least 4 (because you left out Jackson) forwards who you agree can improve. We didn't lose peak Eddie Betts, we lost a role player. A good one, but not some offensive juggernaut.

And its not like we don't get to play someone in Schultz's place. Even Banfield averaged 0.8 goals last year. So that leaves 0.6 to cover, from up to 5 (just leave it there) forwards under the age of 24.

Walters may decline, just like McKay might not beat his yips. I don't see any reason to grant one is more likely than the other.

Hollands is unproven - could be gun but who knows. Fantasia I concede would make a big difference, but if you're skeptical about Walters then you can't take the idea of getting him on the park as likely. We have some speculative types but I'm not counting any chickens with any of them yet.


0.6 + Motlop = Amiss + Sturt + Treacy + Jackson + Frederick

I'll back us everyday of the week if the rest of the team pull their weight.

How about all the players who have left your club in the last few years though

That has an effect.. to go from the Flagmantle dream to hoping you’re good enough to scrape into finals…

I’m not stirring the pot I’m saying if I was a fan I’d be spewing…

Hearing what Schultz said, the hierarchy have been poor when it comes to remuneration & clearly club culture is so so..

The one great strength I think freo have is midfield.. very solid

But why are players wanting to leave each year? I’d be asking that question

Living through Carlton’s 2013-2017 years and losing players to other clubs I know how frustrating that was as we lost any ground that we had built

 

[carlton_99]

I think for you to finish top 2, you'll need most of those hypothetical improvements. McKay sorting it out would certainly help a lot.

McKay fixing up his kicking will definitely help but he also does a lot of very important things for us aside from goals. He has been imo the best up-the-ground forward in the comp over the last few years bar prime Jeremy Cameron who I don't believe is human. Getting a full season into Martin is key and with the loss of JSOS I expect TDK to get more forward time and he showed in the finals he can kick big goals. Also expect our young small forwards to improve with Motlop looking like he has a lot of potential. Hollands/Fantasia as you say are up in the air but anything from them is a bonus.

Big thing for me is the midfield - need more goals from the likes of Cripps, Walsh, Cerra, Docherty, Kennedy etc. That would be the major thing our midfield probably lacks atm

 

[Joao]

How about all the players who have left your club in the last few years though

That has an effect.. to go from the Flagmantle dream to hoping you’re good enough to scrape into finals…

I’m not stirring the pot I’m saying if I was a fan I’d be spewing…

Hearing what Schultz said, the hierarchy have been poor when it comes to remuneration & clearly club culture is so so..

The one great strength I think freo have is midfield.. very solid

But why are players wanting to leave each year? I’d be asking that question

Living through Carlton’s 2013-2017 years and losing players to other clubs I know how frustrating that was as we lost any ground that we had built

The only one that bothers me since JL arrived was Acres. That's a genuine list blunder but they happen.

A good portion of the leavers left for opportunity or money and that's fair enough.

The rest - we have very obviously prioritised a core group of players, often to the detriment of others. I am ok with this approach but we won't know if it is effective for some time.

Zero frustration for me, but I don't speak for all Freo fans.

 

[BennyGFunk]

The only one that bothers me since JL arrived was Acres. That's a genuine list blunder but they happen.

A good portion of the leavers left for opportunity or money and that's fair enough.

The rest - we have very obviously prioritised a core group of players, often to the detriment of others. I am ok with this approach but we won't know if it is effective for some time.

Zero frustration for me, but I don't speak for all Freo fans.

Here are the players that have left in recent seasons. I think you’d be well & truly in the premiership mix if most of these had stayed…

2023: Lachie Schultz, Liam Henry, Joel Hamling

2022: Blake Acres, Griffin Logue, Darcy Tucker, Rory Lobb, Lloyd Meek

2021: Adam Cerra

2020: Jesse Hogan

2019: Bradley Hill, Ed Langdon

2018: Lachie Neale

2017: Lachie Weller, Hayden Crozier, Harley Balic

There are some very good footballers on this list not only Acres.

 

[RonnieRaven]

Here are the players that have left in recent seasons. I think you’d be well & truly in the premiership mix if most of these had stayed…

2023: Lachie Schultz, Liam Henry, Joel Hamling

2022: Blake Acres, Griffin Logue, Darcy Tucker, Rory Lobb, Lloyd Meek

2021: Adam Cerra

2020: Jesse Hogan

2019: Bradley Hill, Ed Langdon

2018: Lachie Neale

2017: Lachie Weller, Hayden Crozier, Harley Balic

There are some very good footballers on this list not only Acres.

We got better footballers back
Acres doesn’t even hurt for me only the initial hogan trade where we could of nab a King.
Would you prefer Weller over brayshaw?
Hill over serong?
If you hadn’t had a fwd for 10 years
Cerra over Amiss?

Harley balic? Darcy tucker?
2024 Hamling?

We’ve also added
Jackson
Clark
Brodie
Sharp

Keep reading the dirt sheets
it’s easier that way, you don’t need to educate Yourself to form an opinion.

 

[BennyGFunk]

We got better footballers back
Acres doesn’t even hurt for me only the initial hogan trade where we could of nab a King.
Would you prefer Weller over brayshaw?
Hill over serong?
If you hadn’t had a fwd for 10 years
Cerra over Amiss?

Harley balic? Darcy tucker?
2024 Hamling?

We’ve also added
Jackson
Clark
Brodie
Sharp

Keep reading the dirt sheets
it’s easier that way, you don’t need to educate Yourself to form an opinion.

Well it looks like I struck a nerve… I think you can bring in good young players without losing so much of your core list

It just puts so much unnecessary pressure on your coach

If there is a plan for short term pain & long term gain, great, but I’d like to see it first..

You have replaced some of those players with other good players, that’s a positive, but most of them are young and it just means it will take longer for you to reach your peak

I see positives with Fremantle but players leaving as they have indicates there’s room for improvement at the very least in how your club operates

 

[BennyGFunk]

Gee, the Carlton boys are going hard at you Freo boys for some reason on this...

I suspect it's because they're fearful Freo are one of a few teams who will leapfrog them in 2024.

I actually think the 2022 ladder positions are more indicative of where the two clubs sit. The back half of 2023 for Carlton was the aberration not a trend or rule.

No - I’m neither here nor there on Fremantle and wish them well for the year..

Your club obviously can get stuffed however

 

[RonnieRaven]

Well it looks like I struck a nerve… I think you can bring in good young players without losing so much of your core list

It just puts so much unnecessary pressure on your coach

If there is a plan for short term pain & long term gain, great, but I’d like to see it first..

You have replaced some of those players with other good players, that’s a positive, but most of them are young and it just means it will take longer for you to reach your peak

I see positives with Fremantle but players leaving as they have indicates there’s room for improvement at the very least in how your club operates

Here’s a list of ports “players leaving to other clubs” in the same time frame.

Jarman impey
Brendon Achee
Aaron young
Pittard
Polec
Wingard
Howard
Ryder
Frampton
Ladhams
Duursma

But the sheets write they have great player retention under king Kenny

We have our core now,most players of any club signed until 2026(15)
losing players lengthened our build but it certainly didn’t wreck it

 

[Wargreymon90]

Here’s a list of ports “players leaving to other clubs” in the same time frame.

Jarman impey
Brendon Achee
Aaron young
Pittard
Polec
Wingard
Howard
Ryder
Frampton
Ladhams
Duursma

But the sheets write they have great player retention under king Kenny

We have our core now,most players of any club signed until 2026(15)
losing players lengthened our build but it certainly didn’t wreck it

Im not a Ken fan. But this doesn’t really prove any point.

Pittard, Polec, wingard, ladhams, Howard, Duursma were pushed out for draft capital.

Ah chee, young and frampton were on the verge of being delisted so were allowed to pursue other opportunities.

We probably would have liked to keep impey and Ryder. But not huge losses

 

[RonnieRaven]

Im not a Ken fan. But this doesn’t really prove any point.

Pittard, Polec, wingard, ladhams, Howard, Duursma were pushed out for draft capital.

Ah chee, young and frampton were on the verge of being delisted so were allowed to pursue other opportunities.

We probably would have liked to keep impey and Ryder. But not huge losses

Your right, but it does prove my point because the list of freo players that I replied to over half of them were pushed out, looking for opportunities or draft capital
Except only one team gets the media beat up version where they’ve lost a dozen players because of a bad culture

 

[carlton_99]

Ask Arr0w how many times he's commented on my prediction of Carlton finishing 13th.

You put a comment or prediction out there on an internet forum, and if someone disagrees with it you should expect to be questioned or challenged...

But you aren't questioning a single opinion you are calling out all Carlton supporters as if they are the only posters that have put Freo in the bottom 6.

 

[Fadge]

But you aren't questioning a single opinion you are calling out all Carlton supporters as if they are the only posters that have put Freo in the bottom 6.

There was back and forth from multiple Carlton posters, and only Carlton posters, re: Freo's 'plight' over the last page or so of the thread, hence my perception and therefore comment.

 

[Joao]

Here are the players that have left in recent seasons. I think you’d be well & truly in the premiership mix if most of these had stayed…

2023: Lachie Schultz, Liam Henry, Joel Hamling

2022: Blake Acres, Griffin Logue, Darcy Tucker, Rory Lobb, Lloyd Meek

2021: Adam Cerra

2020: Jesse Hogan

2019: Bradley Hill, Ed Langdon

2018: Lachie Neale

2017: Lachie Weller, Hayden Crozier, Harley Balic

There are some very good footballers on this list not only Acres.

Yes I am aware of who left and my response is perfectly encapsulated by my previous post. I don't care if you agree or not.

Except the great Harley Balic, we'll probably never recover from that one.

 

[beside the seaside]

The question marks on Freo in my opinion are do they have enough experience up forward, and is Longmuir good enough to have them playing a consistent brand of footy that gets it done most weeks.

I think last year's performance puts a big question mark on Longmuir and he has work to do to prove he is a good enough coach.

I also reckon Lobb was an underrated loss for them and without Taberner playing at his best they lack experience up forward. Schultz is a loss for his experience as much as performance.

They have some great young players though so if they can get on top of those issues they can become a very good side again. Probably also need to find some mids to help out Brayshaw and Serong.

 

[RonnieRaven]

The question marks on Freo in my opinion are do they have enough experience up forward, and is Longmuir good enough to have them playing a consistent brand of footy that gets it done most weeks.

I think last year's performance puts a big question mark on Longmuir and he has work to do to prove he is a good enough coach.

I also reckon Lobb was an underrated loss for them and without Taberner playing at his best they lack experience up forward. Schultz is a loss for his experience as much as performance.

They have some great young players though so if they can get on top of those issues they can become a very good side again. Probably also need to find some mids to help out Brayshaw and Serong.

Tabs has had a good preseason to support Jackson amiss Treacy if needed
Fyfe and Brodie have had good preseasons to support Brayshaw Serong Young.
Johnson and Erasmus are developing well.

 

[gbatman]

Top 4 quality sides
1. Brisbane - Genuine quality side, hard to see them falter.
2. Carlton - List is very good, depth is good, having a very good run with injury and preseason. Recruited well. Should build on last year.
3. GWS - Really boomed away late last season, very talented list, I expect a lot from them.
4. Collingwood - Still the same talented side, a few perhaps up forward? Effort has been their key, after winning a flag will it be there and will their forward line function still for a whole season or will the edge just be off? Still rate them.

Top 8 quality sides pushing for the top 4
5. Port Adelaide - Majority of their 2023 season they were very good. Faltered at the end. I'm hearing their preseason has been good. Port could drop as well, hard to read, no excuses for them.
6. Sydney - It's just hard to not rate the swans when they look on the up. Finished strongly last season, just a quality club.
7. Adelaide - Very impressed by their game style, very similar to Collingwood, consistency is the key for them and that could well come.
8. St Kilda - Same as Adelaide, they have talent and are well coached with a high speed, high pressure game style.
9. Melbourne - Still talent laden but are they aging and are they going to handle off field issues? Is the fire still burning? They have talent but need a spart, not sure where it comes from.

Mid table sides who will push hard for the 8
10. Essendon - Loads of talent, some good young players, been rebuilding for a while, are they due? Questions over whether their talented youth have nailed down primary positions and their spine.
11. Geelong - Talented veterans are their but how good is the youth? We will find out.
12. Bulldogs - They seem stuck in limbo and have been for some time. Usually when this happens to sides they go down.
13. Richmond - Similar case to Geelong. New coach on board, what does a rebuilding Richmond look like?
14. Fremantle - Been rebuilding for a while now, they have some talent but enough to make the 8?
15. Gold Coast - Been rebuilding since their inception. Showed promise last season. New coach. They have some talent but do they have enough?


Probable bottom sides, no realistic chance of finals
16. North Melbourne - Building some young talent, they finished the season really competitive, I think they will show a bit in 2024 but still be a bottom side.
17. Hawthorn - The talent is scattered, still well in rebuild mode.
18. West Coast - They were terrible last season, still early days of a very intensive rebuild.

Reckon there are 4 groups of teams in terms of quality and they will probably finish around here. There are a few striving to go into the next group who may well do that.

However these teams fare is dependant on injuries and fitness.

Expecting the competition to be fairly even and close again.

 

[Giant Pete]

Tigers depth looks terrible

 

[smasha]

Tigers depth looks terrible

Watching a preseason game knackers?

 

[BennyGFunk]

The question marks on Freo in my opinion are do they have enough experience up forward, and is Longmuir good enough to have them playing a consistent brand of footy that gets it done most weeks.

I think last year's performance puts a big question mark on Longmuir and he has work to do to prove he is a good enough coach.

I also reckon Lobb was an underrated loss for them and without Taberner playing at his best they lack experience up forward. Schultz is a loss for his experience as much as performance.

They have some great young players though so if they can get on top of those issues they can become a very good side again. Probably also need to find some mids to help out Brayshaw and Serong.

Pretty much sums up my thoughts also..

 

[Giant Pete]

Watching a preseason game knackers?

Yeah… sick at home… not much sport on

 

[My_Username]

After their win in the match simulation, Richmond are clearly premiership contenders.

Melbourne on the other hand are going to struggle this year.