Expansion A third team in Queensland? AFL acknowledges QLD3 as a 20th licence option

[Canberra Pear]

You'd be surprised at how much thought I did put into those numbers.

So there's a few factors going on here. That census took place in August 2021 (nearly four years ago) and Covid skewed a lot of data back then. Interstate migration numbers were certainly inflated in some areas because people were desperate to get out of the NSW/Victoria lockdowns at the time, so I was trying to account for that. My understanding is Queensland's migration numbers continued at a high rate beyond the Covid period and other states/territories did not. Admittedly, I haven't researched that extensively and could be wrong. Anyway, if you assume a similar growth rate of 10k per year for the Sunny Coast, then it should be sitting around 390-400k population now. It could be even higher considering migration to Queensland has been immense in the last five years.

My understanding is Canberra's growth rate had dropped once we moved on from the Covid period and was something like 1.2% annually. So again, apply the same logic of trying to predict growth, but account for the lowering of the growth rate (just my basic understanding of Canberra, I could be wrong) and you're probably looking at around an extra 15k people living in Canberra. So maybe around 480k total now? Obviously we don't know true population numbers without the census, but it's a rough prediction for the sake of a BF post.

To be clear, what I was really trying to point out was that the northern Brisbane + Moreton Bay + Sunshine Coast has a population of approximately 2 million and how it would be a no brainer to put a team there over the 450-500k people living in Canberra.


Nothing official from the government, but when I Google 2024 population growth in Canberra, there are lots of sites suggesting between 1-1.3% growth. Obviously none of those are great sources without government confirmation, but I did see a few government related posts that suggest they believe the ACT will hit 500,000 in 2030. So we at least know that Canberra doesn't have a population of 500k (yet).

The ABS notoriously underestimates Canberra's population.

In the 2021 census, our growth was about 40% higher than they'd projected. They cut off about 5% of our population.

Our chief minister has asked the ABS to fix their shit. In this article, he said their projections were "inconsistent with recent trends and administrative data", which shows that net interstate migration has been growing Canberra's population.

If they've cut off 5% of our population again, the ACT would have already passed 500k.

But even with underestimating the ACT, based on ABS medium projections, the ACT is expected to grow 55% by 2071. Queensland is expected to grow 42%. I can't see the specifics for the Sunshine Coast, or SEQ, but SEQ already makes up so much of the population that growth wouldn't be that much greater than that.

I also like the Crane Index as a measure of growth. It shows how much building is happening in a city, which is reflective of population growth. At Q3 2024, Canberra had 30, Sunshine Coast had 14.

The ACT is building more dwellings per capita than Queensland. About 45% more. Not an exact measure of population growth, but another good indicator.



So based on all of the above, I would be dubious of any claim that the Sunshine Coast is growing substantially quicker than Canberra. Especially not "more than double" as you claimed.

Well, if you want to talk about border populations then you've got another city of 500k in Moreton Bay right below the Sunshine Coast as well as 1 million+ northern Brisbane residents within 40-60 mins from the Sunny Coast. Then there's lots of tourists staying there at any given time. The Sunshine Coast is like the Gold Coast in that sense e.g the amount of people on the GC balloons to over 1 million during summer because so many people holiday here and the Sunshine Coast would also have that going on because it's a very desirable holiday destination.

There are two main differences between Canberra and the Sunshine Coast's nearby populations.

1. Most of that population in Northern Brisbane is still closer to the Gabba. Whereas Canberra would be the closest team to the whole 750k Capital Region.

2. Most of Canberra's border population is really close. It's literally a 13-minute drive from Queanbeyan to Manuka Oval. It takes longer to get from Maroochydore to Caloundra. Limiting the population to the ACT is misleading.

As I've said, I'm a proponent of SEQ3 getting a team, but I don't think they're ready for Team 20. And, while biased, I don't think they're ahead of Canberra.

 

[MadMundy]

I doubt it, the 20th team should be a Canberra or Northern Territory team.

 

[catters05]

Canberra for 20th should be the only answer imo. Get closer to that federal money and focus on investing more into GWS for West Sydney. Canberra20 wouldn’t take long to overtake Raiders and Brumbies imo if setup correctly.

Suns will come good, they will eventually break the cycle of dead GC sport teams.

Get that 60k stadium for the Lions.


With Hawks and North pulling out of Tas by that time, there could be more opportunity to play more games across Northern Australia. If the AFL wanted to have another go at NZ, could probably trust Hawthorn to succeed.

 

[sabso]

No.

AFL should remove their dicks from queenslands arse and look to promote an existing club from a footy area.

 

[GC2015]

Your estimations are heavily based on your "understanding" of population trends, meaning they're unscientific. I prefer to use actual data instead of guesstimates.


Yeah you did. I brought up numbers from 2022 and 2023 and you started talking about the 2021 census and how it was four years ago and skewed by Covid.


Straw man argument. My contention was with your claim that the population growth rate on the Sunshine Coast is more than double the rate of Canberra, and I showed evidence that the claim was incorrect.


I don't care what Murdoch's clickbait merchants have to say.


It's using an example to show that population isn't the sole factor, there are many other things that go into it.


And are soon to get a stadium with around 20 000 more seats.


Okay, I see you're pretending you didn't say "To be clear, what I was really trying to point out was that the northern Brisbane + Moreton Bay + Sunshine Coast has a population of approximately 2 million and how it would be a no brainer to put a team there over the 450-500k people living in Canberra".


Yes. The paragraph you wrote was dripping with condescension.

...

I'm amused that you think conversations on Bigfooty are that influential on real life that I'd feel the need to steer the conversation away. You can talk about a second Brisbane team to your heart's content, but don't post nonsense and expect it to not be responded to.

Okay mate. I think I understand your contention now. Noted for future discussions with you.

I already made my stance on that clear in the first post I made in this thread. I'll quote it again for you and bold the relevant parts so it's clear to you this time.

So there's your answer.

That's interesting. So if the Suns didn't exist, would you be in favour of a second Brisbane team being established ahead of Canberra or would you push for Gold Coast to have its own team? or is there another option you'd push for that I haven't considered?

Except that's BS because three matches at the ground have had crowds over 10 000. In fact the ground record of 11 912 was set by two teams who are not from Queensland. If the Sunshine Coast was such a great place for the Dolphins to play, perhaps they wouldn't have played more home games in Perth than on the Sunshine Coast.

Even if the true capacity of the Sunny Coast stadium is 12k (I assume that's what you're inferring?) then that's still a pretty good crowd. 78% full isn't a bad crowd.

But you're right in saying they would have continued to play there if they thought it was worth it. It'll be interesting to see if they continue to play multiple home games in Redcliffe each year. I think they will considering it's their traditional home, but there's potentially more to be gained from playing extra games at Suncorp. Time will tell.

I didn't know they played home games in Perth. Why is that? Are they getting money from the WA government to do that?

Wonderful! But this is Queensland where rugby league is the dominant game. This means nothing for a potential second AFL side, particularly if it doesn't have the Dolphins' decades of history.

Around a decade ago when I would attend NRL games fairly regularly in both Brisbane and the Gold Coast, I remember hearing league fans debate whether Brisbane should have a second NRL team and that was obviously prior to the establishment of the Dolphins. I found opinions were mixed on the topic - some thought it was a great idea and others thought it would hurt the Broncos too much.

How can you test a market in terms of its ability to handle a second team without actually starting a second team? I guess you can play games in Brisbane that don't involve the Lions to see how the market reacts and we've heard stories of Collingwood potentially selling home games to Queensland in the future so maybe that could be looked at. That's probably an unfair representation of what would happen if a second Brisbane team was formed considering Collingwood are so big, but I'm not really sure how else you can test the market.

The ABS notoriously underestimates Canberra's population.

In the 2021 census, our growth was about 40% higher than they'd projected. They cut off about 5% of our population.

Our chief minister has asked the ABS to fix their shit. In this article, he said their projections were "inconsistent with recent trends and administrative data", which shows that net interstate migration has been growing Canberra's population.

If they've cut off 5% of our population again, the ACT would have already passed 500k.

But even with underestimating the ACT, based on ABS medium projections, the ACT is expected to grow 55% by 2071. Queensland is expected to grow 42%. I can't see the specifics for the Sunshine Coast, or SEQ, but SEQ already makes up so much of the population that growth wouldn't be that much greater than that.

I also like the Crane Index as a measure of growth. It shows how much building is happening in a city, which is reflective of population growth. At Q3 2024, Canberra had 30, Sunshine Coast had 14.

The ACT is building more dwellings per capita than Queensland. About 45% more. Not an exact measure of population growth, but another good indicator.

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So based on all of the above, I would be dubious of any claim that the Sunshine Coast is growing substantially quicker than Canberra. Especially not "more than double" as you claimed.

I appreciate you putting in the effort to compile all that data. I don't really want to discuss the idea that the ABS's stats may be inaccurate after the lengthy discussion I had with another poster about stats accuracy, but I appreciate you going to the effort of putting all that together. Cheers.

There are two main differences between Canberra and the Sunshine Coast's nearby populations.

1. Most of that population in Northern Brisbane is still closer to the Gabba. Whereas Canberra would be the closest team to the whole 750k Capital Region.

2. Most of Canberra's border population is really close. It's literally a 13-minute drive from Queanbeyan to Manuka Oval. It takes longer to get from Maroochydore to Caloundra. Limiting the population to the ACT is misleading.

As I've said, I'm a proponent of SEQ3 getting a team, but I don't think they're ready for Team 20. And, while biased, I don't think they're ahead of Canberra.

Fair enough. Thoughts on a northern Brisbane expansion team without the Sunshine Coast connection?

 

[GC2015]

Participation numbers continue to grow impressively year on year in Queensland. We know the AFL looks at these numbers when it comes to expansion options because Andrew Dillon confirmed it this week.

 

[terrybull]

No, there’s more than enough Victorians in this national comp.

Canberra-Fitzroy Lions then…

 

[Canberra Pear]

Fair enough. Thoughts on a northern Brisbane expansion team without the Sunshine Coast connection?

I think a Sunshine Coast team would draw a little on population from northern Brisbane, I just dont think it could be included definitively in their territory. But as the northern suburbs creep further north, I guess new suburbs would be more inclined to support the Sunshine Coast.

A third SEQ team is actually my pick for Team 21.

I think I'm in the minority, but my preference is the Sunshine Coast over northern Brisbane.

If Team 21 comes I'm around 2050, the Sunshine Coast will have about 600k people. Northern Brisbane will have crept closer.

The NRL has bigger priorities. Perth, PNG, Adelaide, NZ2, Western Bris. Which means the AFL expanding there for Team 21 could easily get a foothold first. Would like to see a three games a year in the meantime.

Not opposed to northern Brisbane, I just like the idea of claiming the Sunshine Coast first.

What are you thoughts on Aspley getting the licence? Or would it have to be a fresh team?

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Crazy - no way you should be adding teams to NSW or QLD before WA or SA - both secondary teams in NSW and QLD have low supporter bases.

It’s not crazy when you understand how many Victorian ex-pats there are in QLD and NSW.

 

[Colonial]

Crazy - no way you should be adding teams to NSW or QLD before WA or SA - both secondary teams in NSW and QLD have low supporter bases.

Vic - 5
NSW -2
QLD - 2
SA -2
WA - 2
Tas - 1

14 clubs, 26 round season, shorter games, no pre-season, extended squad for player management

But it's all about $$ - which is so wrong. If $$ are what matters most, AFL should pay full business taxes.

Add a Canberra team otherwise the Giants are a .5 NSW team

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Add a Canberra team otherwise the Giants are a .5 NSW team

Canberra really doesn’t make much sense.

It’s a hole, I doubt many people would want to visit there to watch games, unlike other spots in QLD and NSW.

 

[Purple Suit]

It’s not crazy when you understand how many Victorian ex-pats there are in QLD and NSW.

Yet the numbers in WA surpass everything in QLD. If a big new stadium is coming, Brisbane can fill it first. If we wait 20 years for populations to increase, there will be two teams with giant waiting lists over here and no walk up tickets every week rather than every 2nd week.

Meanwhile rugby will move in while the AFL sits on it’s arse redistributing wealth around the country.

 

[The Feeder Club]

Yet the numbers in WA surpass everything in QLD. If a big new stadium is coming, Brisbane can fill it first. If we wait 20 years for populations to increase, there will be two teams with giant waiting lists over here and no walk up tickets every week rather than every 2nd week.

Meanwhile rugby will move in while the AFL sits on it’s arse redistributing wealth around the country.

Exactly this.
The expat argument is spurious. In my experience, what the majority of expats do is turn up to the 1-2 games a year their old team is playing in their new state. If expats in Qld were so keen on adopting a new Qld team, why aren't they going to games now?

 

[flynnrozz]

Oh great. More stupid academy zones.

This annoys me because this is how we create afl talent up north most of these players didn’t even touch afl until the academy’s convinced them to give it a go! In Queensland you don’t see afl posts everywhere it’s the opposite that’s why we have academy’s to get local talent other stats don’t have that issue that NSW/QLD have.

 

[Canberra Pear]

Canberra really doesn’t make much sense.

It’s a hole, I doubt many people would want to visit there to watch games, unlike other spots in QLD and NSW.

Have you actually been to Canberra?

First of all, visitors are not a primary reason to base a team anywhere.

But Canberra is awesome. It's got something for everyone. So many national institutions to visit for free; Questacon; great outdoors, hiking and cycling activities; 40-plus wineries; breweries; great restaurants and bars just next to Manuka.

If you're bored visiting Canberra, you're just a boring person.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Have you actually been to Canberra?

First of all, visitors are not a primary reason to base a team anywhere.

But Canberra is awesome. It's got something for everyone. So many national institutions to visit for free; Questacon; great outdoors, hiking and cycling activities; 40-plus wineries; breweries; great restaurants and bars just next to Manuka.

If you're bored visiting Canberra, you're just a boring person.

Yes, I’ve been to Canberra.

 

[Canberra Pear]

Yes, I’ve been to Canberra.

And did you try anything of the listed above?

If you found it boring, that's on you.

 

[Canberra Pear]

Perth is the 4th largest city in Australia (pop 2.3 million) and is footy - mad. But it only has two teams.

Put in very crude statistical terms, that is 1.15 million per team. Melbourne has teams per 5.2 million for 9 teams. Roughly 0.5 million per team. Forget Brisbane and Sydney in this equation as they are not AFL states.

Any extra club must be in Perth. The Weagles are basically central Perth , Freo the south while the northern suburbs should be home the new team. Joondalup? Balcatta? South Geraldton?

But a third Perth team isn't just going to scoop up a third of support.

It's going to struggle for relevance against its bigger brothers.

In the end, WA3 would struggle for a fifth of Perth and end up with a similarly sized catchment to Canberra.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

And did you try anything of the listed above?

If you found it boring, that's on you.

Most regional centers have all of what Canberra offers. It’s a hole.

 

[Colonial]

Canberra really doesn’t make much sense.

Makes plenty of sense, large enough region to hold a team, is actually a footy, Aussie rules, region.
Capital of our country as well.

It’s a hole,

I’m no fan of it but that’s opinion based, plenty of people love the joint

I doubt many people would want to visit there to watch games, unlike other spots in QLD and NSW.

Disagree. Close to Vic I’m sure there are plenty who look at the short trip as a good away trip.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Makes plenty of sense, large enough region to hold a team, is actually a footy, Aussie rules, region.
Capital of our country as well.

I’m no fan of it but that’s opinion based, plenty of people love the joint

Disagree. Close to Vic I’m sure there are plenty who look at the short trip as a good away trip.

I’ve have never heard a single friend or family member say “we are headed to Canberra this weekend”.

 

[GC2015]

It’s not crazy when you understand how many Victorian ex-pats there are in QLD and NSW.

This is a huge factor. I know the Gold Coast has been absolutely flooded with Victorians ex pats since covid, and there were already a lot of ex Vics here before covid. To the point that SEN Gold Coast publicly committed to a 50/50 split in AFL and NRL coverage earlier this week and they specifically mention Victorians ex pats living on the GC being a big reason as to why they changed their local coverage policy.

I sit next to a bloke at every Suns home game who is a Victorian ex pat that is also an Essendon member and I've talked to a lot of other people wearing Suns gear at home games here who are also Victorian ex pats that share his view. The sentiment is almost always '[Insert Vic team] is my first team but I like the Suns and want to support the game up here.' The important part is most of those people have kids that are exclusively Suns fans and don't have ties to their parents' Vic team. My understanding is there's also a lot of Victorian ex pats on the Sunshine Coast and I know Brisbane has a decent amount of ex Vics living there too.

So there's lots of interest in Aussie rules because of that reason and it's been snowballing to the point that we're seeing born and bred Queenslanders jumping on board as well. I've seen it first hand from people who grew up rugby league supporters and previous had no interest in Aussie rules - then they give footy a go for one reason or another, and now many of them love it just as much or more than league. The big thing for future growth of the game up here is to convert the local interest into supporters of the local teams.

All these ex Vics come with their pre-existing loyalties to Victorian teams and that can be really hard to break. However, the Suns and Lions are doing a great job of convincing their kids to be supporters of the local AFL teams. So there's a generational effect going on as well. I assume there's something similar going on in NSW, but I don't have anywhere near enough knowledge to comment on that.

I think a Sunshine Coast team would draw a little on population from northern Brisbane, I just dont think it could be included definitively in their territory. But as the northern suburbs creep further north, I guess new suburbs would be more inclined to support the Sunshine Coast.

A third SEQ team is actually my pick for Team 21.

I think I'm in the minority, but my preference is the Sunshine Coast over northern Brisbane.

If Team 21 comes I'm around 2050, the Sunshine Coast will have about 600k people. Northern Brisbane will have crept closer.

The NRL has bigger priorities. Perth, PNG, Adelaide, NZ2, Western Bris. Which means the AFL expanding there for Team 21 could easily get a foothold first. Would like to see a three games a year in the meantime.

Not opposed to northern Brisbane, I just like the idea of claiming the Sunshine Coast first.

What are you thoughts on Aspley getting the licence? Or would it have to be a fresh team?

The Aspley idea reminds me of discussions the footy community was having about Southport 20 years ago. Financially strong local club but pre-existing reputations could hurt them going forward. Southport are/were certainly more hated than Aspley, but Aspley has been around since the 1960s so I'm sure they also have some locals that aren't particularly fond of them. Plus, the AFL doesn't seem keen on letting existing teams into the league. The one exception they made with Port Adelaide almost completely blew up in their face in the late 2000s/early 2010s and I'm not sure they'd want to go there again.

If Southport couldn't get entry into the AFL, then I doubt Aspley stands a chance. It's probably best to just start a new club with new branding. Then the AFL has full control over it and don't have to take into consideration historical elements that can rub other clubs up the wrong way like Port Adelaide's consistant requests to wear their traditional prison bar jumper. Just start fresh with a new logo, branding and colours.

 

[Purple Suit]

But a third Perth team isn't just going to scoop up a third of support.

It's going to struggle for relevance against its bigger brothers.

In the end, WA3 would struggle for a fifth of Perth and end up with a similarly sized catchment to Canberra.

Sure, lets say it only gets a 5th of Perth. While it is establishing that 5th, it should get a fair bit of walk-up support from WC & Freo fans. The first few years of that, two sellout Derbies will get them to 30K average attendance easily.

This will be greater than any other expansion club option as we have a pre-existing 60K stadium. We are an AFL state so there will not be other codes competing on the same level. 20% of the population of Perth will be greater than Canberra and more relevant than 50% of Brisbane considering it's a rugby state and has struggled to support one team, even when they are going well.

Perth is actually set to go past Brisbane in terms of population anyway so why would you target 3 teams in Qld over WA first?

 

[Colonial]

I’ve have never heard a single friend or family member say “we are headed to Canberra this weekend”.

And? Know 20 plus million people do you?

They have a 3.4 billion dollar tourism industry so someone’s going there

 

[jannissary]

People will push up Southport, but I wonder if the AFL will have its eye on Maroochydore or Maloolaba instead?

Has its own airport, smack bang in the middle of Caloundra, Noosa and the rest of the Sunshine Coast.

There’s a shit tonne of Ex-pat Vic’s up there, plus you’d get a huge influx of visitors for games who would love an excuse to spend a weekend up there.

this is the most sensible one i reckon. only problem that comes to mind would be location of a reasonable sized stadium/spot for one. not that i've been up that way in a long time, though.