Analysis The Rebuilds of West Coast and Richmond and their Future Prospects

[Rich01]

Rodriguez was fine, Sharp quiet.

Nice to see GC look to have the pick 1 & 2 punch at the top of the draft with Patterson and Annable

More to be concerned about than excited about for some of your top 5 today…

Fred- looked slow today. Can he win enough ball in the middle to have an impact? Hopefully his WAFL club doesn’t keep hiding him at BP or FP and give him a chance to show his talent in the middle.

Sharp- Really missed his chance to stamp himself on the contest today. Greeves played the role he should have (although Greeves disposal is a huge concern).

Duursma- Is he just another Duursma? Great in juniors and vanilla at the top level?

CDT - he’s a unicorn but with that comes great risk. As an undersized ruck I’d want to see some more Kruezer traits as I think he will get monstered at stoppages by bigger full time rucks.

More questions than answers after today.

2024 top 5 looking significantly better than your 2025 handful at this stage.

 

[bzparkes]

More to be concerned about than excited about for some of your top 5 today…

Fred- looked slow today. Can he win enough ball in the middle to have an impact? Hopefully his WAFL club doesn’t keep hiding him at BP or FP and give him a chance to show his talent in the middle.

Sharp- Really missed his chance to stamp himself on the contest today. Greeves played the role he should have (although Greeves disposal is a huge concern).

Duursma- Is he just another Duursma? Great in juniors and vanilla at the top level?

CDT - he’s a unicorn but with that comes great risk. As an undersized ruck I’d want to see some more Kruezer traits as I think he will get monstered at stoppages by bigger full time rucks.

More questions than answers after today.

2024 top 5 looking significantly better than your 2025 handful at this stage.

Well, the fact that this side performed significantly better than the academy side last year should allay your fears

 

[Shueygod]

Well, the fact that this side performed significantly better than the academy side last year should allay your fears

That’s not a fair comparison, Coburg VFL might be better than the Richmond AFL side let alone their VFL one

 

[tiger_tough]

That’s not a fair comparison, Coburg VFL might be better than the Richmond AFL side let alone their VFL one

Our VFL side is undefeated and Coburg is winless

We had like 5 listed players play today and rested about half a dozen.....

 

[Rich01]

Well, the fact that this side performed significantly better than the academy side last year should allay your fears

There’s no fear Parkes. I’m confident our top pick last year will be better than at least one on your top 5 this year. Especially after today.

 

[MisterMarcus]

One big advantage Richmond have had in 2025 is that most of their older blokes have been playing well.

Nankervis, Hopper, McIntosh, Taranto, Vlaustin and Short have been more than holding their own.....the first three have arguably been among the best players in almost every game. At least the young Tigers have had some semblance of structure and experience around them.

In contrast, a lot of WCE's senior guys are injured, dropped for poor form, or just not impacting how they should. Too much is being left to the kids, and they're getting belted.

This MAY mean Richmond truly won't hit rock bottom until a couple of years' time, which would put West Coast "ahead" (since they're indisputably at rock bottom now). But on the other hand, the Richmond kids will get 20-30 more games of 'protection' from bigger older bodies, which could see them advantaged long term.

Will be interesting to see how it plays out over the next 5 or so years.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

It was pretty widely recognised by anyone with a clue that last years draft was even throughout but not great at the top end.

Lalor looks good but after that the Richmond kids haven’t really warranted the huge hype the tigers faithful put on them.

1. Lalor - flying start to the season, long way to go but above the level of the vast majority of pick 1’s if judging only by first 4 matches. This is off his first ever pre-season and even that was interrupted by a late start and broken jaw prior to Rd 1.

7. Smillie - only played 2 half games at VFL level due to injury but likely to debut in coming weeks. Happy to reserve judgement on him but I know from listening to our players comments they seem to really rate him.

12. Hotton - ACL recovery. Might be seen late 2025. Was shaping as a fringe top 1 pick when he went down early last year.

14. Faull - debuted today in a difficult match and role as an kfd. Our supporters are rapt with what he has shown at VFL level off missing almost the whole pre-season.

21. Trainor - 195cm defender played every game, looks really good. No way he was falling to pick 21 bar some concussion concerns. Making some errors by foot, to be expected at this stage but he is looking a great pick at this stage.

23. Armstrong - Really promising 4 games as a kfd, sadly hamstring tendon injury at training will see him miss most of the year.

28. Sims - 199cm forward/ruck. Won’t be able to judge him for a good few years but he is doing very well at VFL level so far.



58. Alger - just turned 18 smart small forward, showing good early signs in the VFL.

So you will just have to be patient, but this group of players drafted 2024 look to have some serious talent.

Lalor has already shown your cohort of “anyone with a clue” who wrote off the top end of the draft as sub par, were actually clueless. Let alone the rest of the top 10 we have seen so far.

 

[Shueygod]

1. Lalor - flying start to the season, long way to go but above the level of the vast majority of pick 1’s if judging only by first 4 matches. This is off his first ever pre-season and even that was interrupted by a late start and broken jaw prior to Rd 1.

7. Smillie - only played 2 half games at VFL level due to injury but likely to debut in coming weeks. Happy to reserve judgement on him but I know from listening to our players comments they seem to really rate him.

12. Hotton - ACL recovery. Might be seen late 2025. Was shaping as a fringe top 1 pick when he went down early last year.

14. Faull - debuted today in a difficult match and role as an kfd. Our supporters are rapt with what he has shown at VFL level off missing almost the whole pre-season.

21. Trainor - 195cm defender played every game, looks really good. No way he was falling to pick 21 bar some concussion concerns. Making some errors by foot, to be expected at this stage but he is looking a great pick at this stage.

23. Armstrong - Really promising 4 games as a kfd, sadly hamstring tendon injury at training will see him miss most of the year.

28. Sims - 199cm forward/ruck. Won’t be able to judge him for a good few years but he is doing very well at VFL level so far.



58. Alger - just turned 18 smart small forward, showing good early signs in the VFL.

So you will just have to be patient, but this group of players drafted 2024 look to have some serious talent.

Lalor has already shown your cohort of “anyone with a clue” who wrote off the top end of the draft as sub par, were actually clueless. Let alone the rest of the top 10 we have seen so far.

Never said they don’t have talent, I said they haven’t warranted the hype on them as of yet.

A lot of Richmond fans seem to be expecting all of the top 30 picks to work out simply due to being top 30 picks, that’s not how it works.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

One big advantage Richmond have had in 2025 is that most of their older blokes have been playing well.

Nankervis, Hopper, McIntosh, Taranto, Vlaustin and Short have been more than holding their own.....the first three have arguably been among the best players in almost every game. At least the young Tigers have had some semblance of structure and experience around them.

In contrast, a lot of WCE's senior guys are injured, dropped for poor form, or just not impacting how they should. Too much is being left to the kids, and they're getting belted.

This MAY mean Richmond truly won't hit rock bottom until a couple of years' time, which would put West Coast "ahead" (since they're indisputably at rock bottom now). But on the other hand, the Richmond kids will get 20-30 more games of 'protection' from bigger older bodies, which could see them advantaged long term.

Will be interesting to see how it plays out over the next 5 or so years.

I am more familiar with Richmond’s list than Eagles. I think taking too much notice of short term form is making people think the Eagles list is a lot worse than it is. They will add further prime recruits this year as well. And get used to their new game plan, and likely get crucial players back.

Richmond will do the same over the next 2 years both through the draft and free agents. We also have potentially Balta, Lefau, Mansell, Lalor and some other very talented youngsters to add to this team that played today.

I don’t expect us to be languishing around the bottom 4 past 2027. While we will probably lose 6-7 of our veterans to retirement by then, we should find 3-4 prime aged recruits(not necessarily all guns) to join a list of talented youngsters who should be really coming on by 2028. While you are at the bottom of the ladder you also get a good crack at the mid-season draft, where we have already picked up Blight, Trezise and one or two other prospects. You can take salary dumps if you need an extra mature player - though Richmond don’t seem to rate this avenue if recruitment. All this is pretty much equally true of the Eagles, just not sure they have the volume of high end young talent that Richmond does for now.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Never said they don’t have talent, I said they haven’t warranted the hype on them as of yet.

A lot of Richmond fans seem to be expecting all of the top 30 picks to work out simply due to being top 30 picks, that’s not how it works.

I think Richmond fans know just as well as any other fans it doesn’t work like that. There will be physical attrition and some just won’t be good enough. Against that, some are likely to be better than their draft position indicates.

Our 2024 draft haul if described accurately, is shaping as a massive game changer for the club. It leaves us looking just about one future ruck and two high quality mids short of having all our most key roles filled for our 2028 team. And we have likely 3 very high draft picks to come over the next two drafts plus a huge bank roll plus likely a surplus of key position players to trade in order to fill those roles. The talent we appear to have picked up in the 2024 draft makes it a very unusual looking rebuild. Combined with the 2021 crop it is more or less 8 years worth of Rd 1 quality players already at the club. After this year it will be 10 years worth. And between Balta, Hopper and Taranto another 3 years worth who are already fully mature. This is the difference, 2024-2025 is not the start of a Richmond rebuild. It is the end of it.

 

[Shueygod]

I think Richmond fans know just as well as any other fans it doesn’t work like that. There will be physical attrition and some just won’t be good enough. Against that, some are likely to be better than their draft position indicates.

Our 2024 draft haul if described accurately, is shaping as a massive game changer for the club. It leaves us looking just about one future ruck and two high quality mids short of having all our most key roles filled for our 2028 team. And we have likely 3 very high draft picks to come over the next two drafts plus a huge bank roll plus likely a surplus of key position players to trade in order to fill those roles. The talent we appear to have picked up in the 2024 draft makes it a very unusual looking rebuild. Combined with the 2021 crop it is more or less 8 years worth of Rd 1 quality players already at the club. After this year it will be 10 years worth. And between Balta, Hopper and Taranto another 3 years worth who are already fully mature. This is the difference, 2024-2025 is not the start of a Richmond rebuild. It is the end of it.

Jesus Christ

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Jesus Christ

I think you meant Samuel Lalor.

 

[Shueygod]

I think you meant Samuel Lalor.

You acknowledge that they aren’t all going to work out and then say you’re a ruck and two mids from having your key roles filled for 2028.

 

[bzparkes]

There’s no fear Parkes. I’m confident our top pick last year will be better than at least one on your top 5 this year. Especially after today.

You're gonna need it, considering you just got completely belted playing a ton of seniors.

 

[Shueygod]

Watched all of these players today and apart from Uwland who is an academy kid the rest were extremely average and Josh Smilley played a half and dominated them all and would have got BOG coming of a 12 week lay off

Can’t have been watching too closely, Uwland didn’t play

 

[Meteoric Rise]

You acknowledge that they aren’t all going to work out and then say you’re a ruck and two mids from having your key roles filled for 2028.

We do have other players on our list. No team has a dozen superstars. If you allow for both average attrition and natural progression, what I said is correct.

 

[Rich01]

You're gonna need it, considering you just got completely belted playing a ton of seniors.

Hmm… this has nothing to do with your absurd claim on the top 5 of last years draft class. But keep backpedaling…

 

[Rich01]

OK sometimes we need to spoon feed these kids

Tom Gross was pick #46 in the 2024 afl draft


Now go to bed son

Gross is an example of the quality of the 24 class. They won’t all end up guns, but the talent up to pics in the 50s were there. There’s a higher chance a kid picked in the 40-60 range will make it over previous drafts. Gross is a great example of this. The reason he dropped was because there were questions over his kicking. But he’s shown poise at that top level. Next stop is accountability for his opponent - but that’s on the coaching staff and his team mates at the moment. He’s tracking really well.

 

[HumanMeatball]

It’s not even close. Somehow the eagles started rebuilding 4 years earlier and are 2 years behind Richmond on young talent. Baffling

 

[VinnieB]

Never said they don’t have talent, I said they haven’t warranted the hype on them as of yet.

A lot of Richmond fans seem to be expecting all of the top 30 picks to work out simply due to being top 30 picks, that’s not how it works.

They should get 2 or 3 players out of that lot. 1 of which may be very good.

Apart from Reid, not sure the Eagles have had any ‘very good’ kids out of their past 3 drafts.

 

[flyinghi64]

We are in for a fair bit of hurt I think. Unfortunately our older experienced players just don't seem to be up for it, except for a couple who are unfortunately always in and out with injury.
When a Player like Ryan comes in and just stands out like a sore thumb with his attack and skill level it makes the other "fit" experienced players stand out even more for their lack off.

 

[Dr Tigris]

Well, WC has been down for longer. They tried a mini restructure last year to get some mature bodies in for the next 5 ish year to help the kids. Reid is a superlative talent. They have talent, but seem to be a bit .. disrupted right now. I look at WC and see a rebuilding team that has changed tack, and possibly is about to build something pretty solid. Had bad injuries in recent years, which doesn't help.

The Tigers didn't expect to be where last year ended up. So the club traded out a lot of good players for a lot of good picks, into a deep draft. Then they drafted a spine, 2 top end mids, some X factor and one KPD - so the Tigers drafted the skeleton of a future top end squad if developed well. They've kept older players to protect the kids, and have a group of not yet proven players in their 20's. If all goes well the Tigers will have, from this year's team, a good to very good team in 3 years time. Drafting and trading in of more talent could build out the skeleton into a super team. It's sort of like an expansion team, but based on a team that won 3 premierships. We've got one shot at this rebuild as it isn't happening over time like WC. If it works the Tigers will have top end talent right through the spine and in the midfield, with X factor players, and good role players filling the squad out. That looks a lot like they are aiming at premierships rather than a slow build. I see it as risky, but also potentially high return. The team could be a competitor early and stay in for a many years. Or the build could fall apart and we'd have to go round again more slowly. Right now I am impressed and see this year as more focused on development than wins.

 

[Shueygod]

They should get 2 or 3 players out of that lot. 1 of which may be very good.

Apart from Reid, not sure the Eagles have had any ‘very good’ kids out of their past 3 drafts.

Of course you’re not, you don’t watch them.

 

[Scotland]

The Tigers didn't expect to be where last year ended up. So the club traded out a lot of good players for a lot of good picks, into a deep draft.

This is interesting. WC didn't expect to be where 2021/22 then 23/24 ended up. I'm sure the Tigers didn't expect to be where they were in 2021/22/23 either. 12th, 7th, 13th before finishing last. To be expected, you can't stay at the top forever. But Richmond's list management in 2022 did not point to a rebuild in 2024. If we apply the same inane arguments as have been applied to WC then Richmond were shit for getting Tom Lynch in 2018. Never mind the prelim he won and the 200 goals he has kicked, he got injured and now you are shit so bad Richmond boo hiss.

Looking down the list of the 47 (!) players used in 2022, there is no obvious path to trading to secure draft capital. There is no Baker, Rioli, Bolton looking to leave that have trad value. Outside Liam Ryan and Tom Barrass I don't see many players I would call valuable assets. Yeo played 5 games, Allen didn't play, Waterman kicked a goal a game for the 5th year in a row etc.

From 2022 we split pick 2 (4) to get Hewett (14) and Ginbey (9), then in 2023 picked Reid (1) then in 2024 I hate the trade but we picked Allan (16) and added Baker.

These players are gawn from the flag side (*the three stars to miss):

2018: LeCras, Lycett
2019: Masten, Venables
2020: Jetta, Schofield
2021: Hutchings, Vardy, Sheppard*
2022: Kennedy, Redden
2023: Naitanui*, Shuey, Rioli
2024: Darling, Gaff*, Barrass

Some questionable recruiting decisions around the fringes from 2019-22 but the way people carry on WC are still fielding a team of 35 year olds from 2018 and have been topping up with free agents each year and signing everyone over 30 to a 5 year contract.

 

[Shueygod]

Curious thought experiment for those that are rating Richmond’s talent simply due to their draft hand last year. If West coast lose Allen and Reid this year and thus have a greater draft hand than Richmond’s of last season. Do they then fly back passed Richmond?