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[RPCB]

His continuing crusade against the father son rule.

Tbf, they didn’t last year with Ben and Lucas Camporeale when we all assumed they would.

 

[Blue__Balls]

depends if the contract is tioed to TPP movements then that gap goes

And if it is front loaded, he may decide to leave half way through to chase more coin...

Or the performance drops away as the years progress - always a risk when you frontload a player's contract like that.

 

[Coops93]

That assumes that his new contract is specifically termed to NOT increase as the cap does. From what I understand, there were only one or two clubs whose contracts were set up that way, and I don't think St Kilda was one of them. Could well be that as the cap increases, TDKs new deal will also increase at the same rate.

Most of the very big contracts like this tend not to be in line with the TPP cap increase. In any case even if this offer is one that increases with the cap, that's one of the benefits of front-loading the deal. The % of cap hits on the way down later whether it's in line with cap increases or not. The suggestion has been he'd be on over $2m, not just $2m, next yr.

Thinking of it, being that heavily front loaded does lend itself to being a deal that maybe does adjust to the cap. Either that or it's simply to turn his head more, with a remarkable up-front payment and immediate salary benefit.

 

[Gointocarlton]

He's the no.1 rated player in the comp in his position comfortably now and is the AA ruckman.

Can I ask where you get this from? Daniel Hoyne said the contrary recently from a Champion Data statistics and metrics point of view. Tom is quite poor at ball use, ranked very lowly as a ruckman compared to others (cant recall the numbers he rattled off).

 

[Jimmae]

We've set our price, we aren't changing it. It would make him the highest paid player at the club, but it is $600k a season less than St Kilda's offer. End of the day, loyalty can only stetch so far. His heart wants to stay, his head, his wallet, his management and just about anybody in the world is telling him he can't stay.

I would love for him to stay. It's hard for us normal folk to comprehend considering I'm pretty confident that most of us would be happy with the Carlton offer if one compares it to relative earnings outside of professional sport, which is fair, I can put my hand up and say I work a lot more hours for a lot less. But at the same time, I have (hopefully) more than 12 years in my career, and whilst sometimes I like to put a bit of mayo on how dangerous my mundane job is, I'm not really at a particular high risk of a career ending injury.

So there is a bit more to it than just eye boggling figures, not all AFL players, or should I say, not many AFL players have the.... world acumen... to put it nicely, to transition into another career post football.

I'm assuming that the gap between maximums reflects a lot more performance incentives from St Kilda? Interested in what the estimated difference would be projected as, probably not that much.

Hope his manager is doing the sums and considering the culture of their playing group, coaching group, and club.

Can I ask where you get this from? Daniel Hoyne said the contrary recently from a Champion Data statistics and metrics point of view. Tom is quite poor at ball use, ranked very lowly as a ruckman compared to others (cant recall the numbers he rattled off).

What specific statistics are in use there? He's a pretty good ball user, but he makes aggressive passes.

 

[Coops93]

l have been a massive TDK fan but seriously Daicos at 22 already won a Copeland & All Australian 2nd in the Brown low big chance for this year.
TDK has not even finished top 5 in our best & fairest, Daicos is going to be one of the best in the current era, no comparison in terms of runs on the board.

You're talking about contracts as thought they're 100% a meritocracy. They aren't, there's different machinations in all of them. What Daicos is on isn't relevant at all to TDK. TDK is a free agent and not a F/S so more likely to remain in any case. If Daicos was a F/A and actually open to moving he'd be offered $2m a season for sure, likely more, but that isn't and likely never will be the case, so his comparison is a waste of time.

There was discussions last yr or early this yr (Don't completely remember) that Harley Reid would be offered $2m to leave WCE. Darcy has been referenced as one to be around that mark too. So even with TDK being offered $1.7 there's already discussions on other guys being offered more.

It's really not as outlandish of an offer as it seems and it won't take long for someone to top it.

 

[bigblueboy]

If TDK decides to stay and turns down that much money. I won't ever say a bad thing about him again. What are people smoking on this thread.

The good shit.

 

[Coops93]

Can I ask where you get this from? Daniel Hoyne said the contrary recently from a Champion Data statistics and metrics point of view. Tom is quite poor at ball use, ranked very lowly as a ruckman compared to others (cant recall the numbers he rattled off).

I believe it was Hoyne who said that he's their AA ruckman right now as well. I remember he said that about his disposal a few weeks back, though, they were awful but just about everything else he was top. If his disposal even got to average (which I think he's been much better since he mentioned it) he was always going to be no.1. If it wasn't Hoyne it was one of the other data types, King or Montagna.

I was able to find this too (The number on the right is average player rating per game, from he AFL [provided by Champion data]):

Perhaps they looked over Jackson from the games played perspective and that he's out for a while so put TDK at 1.

Fwiw he's also our highest rated player, above Hewett in 2nd:

 

[macky99]

I know - you said overpaying players causes discontentment in the previous post.

Williams example was to show there's an understanding that FAs are generally overpaid in order to teach you.

l said if TDK was paid $1.7k, l would expect Rohan Marshall who would probably be approx $800-900k would be a likely candidate to be not happy that Saints have valued him of half of TDK worth which is not accurate at all.

Hope TDK stays but absolutely no way at $1.7m, good luck to him if that makes him happy but l still believe it won't be St Kilda he goes to.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Can I ask where you get this from? Daniel Hoyne said the contrary recently from a Champion Data statistics and metrics point of view. Tom is quite poor at ball use, ranked very lowly as a ruckman compared to others (cant recall the numbers he rattled off).

He's in the top 20 for coaches votes and just flogged the best ruck of last year in Xerri

 

[macky99]

You're talking about contracts as thought they're 100% a meritocracy. They aren't, there's different machinations in all of them. What Daicos is on isn't relevant at all to TDK. TDK is a free agent and not a F/S so more likely to remain in any case. If Daicos was a F/A and actually open to moving he'd be offered $2m a season for sure, likely more, but that isn't and likely never will be the case, so his comparison is a waste of time.

There was discussions last yr or early this yr (Don't completely remember) that Harley Reid would be offered $2m to leave WCE. Darcy has been referenced as one to be around that mark too. So even with TDK being offered $1.7 there's already discussions on other guys being offered more.

It's really not as outlandish of an offer as it seems and it won't take long for someone to top it.

Happy for you to believe that it is not a outlandish offer, absolutely it is.

lf he does goes there and accepts that offer more than happy to revisit, again Saints already have a quality ruckman, sharing that role won't see TDK reach his capabilities.
The value has to be a reflection of what the player has done, TDK is Max $1.1m still the highest paid player at Carlton.

 

[Gointocarlton]

I believe it was Hoyne who said that he's their AA ruckman right now as well. I remember he said that about his disposal a few weeks back, though, they were awful but just about everything else he was top. If his disposal even got to average (which I think he's been much better since he mentioned it) he was always going to be no.1. If it wasn't Hoyne it was one of the other data types, King or Montagna.

I was able to find this too (The number on the right is average player rating per game):
View attachment 2293583
Perhaps they looked over Jackson from the games played perspective and that he's out for a while so put TDK at 1.

I used this one below (might be the same one), we you filter out the ruck stuff, he doesnt rank 1 in any.

AFL Player Statistics

AFL player statistics.

www.wheeloratings.com

In any case, I'm not putting shit on TDK, he is an outstanding footballer and is vital to our success.

 

[Coops93]

Happy for you to believe that it is not a outlandish offer, absolutely it is.

lf he does goes there and accepts that offer more than happy to revisit, again Saints already have a quality ruckman, sharing that role won't see TDK reach his capabilities.
The value has to be a reflection of what the player has done, TDK is Max $1.1m still the highest paid player at Carlton.

Outlandish based on what? He's the best ruck in the comp this yr so far and is only 25. Young, currently would be AA in his position, a free agent. He's going to get offered top end money, and what he's been offered isn't really the top end of what others would be offered if they were F/A and potentially swayed. Like I said, Daicos if he ever considered it, Darcy, Reid (apparently) all would easily be offered more.

Contracts aren't always a reflection on what players have done. Contracts are offered on potential all the time and are inflated to cause player movement.

 

[The Bighouse]

Tbf, they didn’t last year with Ben and Lucas Camporeale when we all assumed they would.

The reason we’ve got the revised DVI & %, there is no way the league could (well, they could) change the rules when clubs hadn’t been prepped for draft rules in advance. RFC would have been more displaced after their haul of later picks knowing that they were going to be valuable trading tools.

Muppet Bassat would have campaigning no doubt for instant change. He made a statement re: BL’s winning the premiership and having access to L.Ashcroft IIRC. He’s a major campaigner of the other variety.

 

[The Bighouse]

Outlandish based on what? He's the best ruck in the comp this yr so far and is only 25. Young, currently would be AA in his position, a free agent. He's going to get offered top end money, and what he's been offered isn't really the top end of what others would be offered if they were F/A and potentially swayed. Like I said, Daicos if he ever considered it, Darcy, Reid (apparently) all would easily be offered more.

Contracts aren't always a reflection on what players have done. Contracts are offered on potential all the time and are inflated to cause player movement.

If he’s the best ruck in the comp, how has his direct opponent beaten him this year?
Nank. D.Cameron. Even B.Williams.

 

[Coops93]

I used this one below (might be the same one), we you filter out the ruck stuff, he doesnt rank 1 in any.

AFL Player Statistics

AFL player statistics.

www.wheeloratings.com

In any case, I'm not putting shit on TDK, he is an outstanding footballer and is vital to our success.

Yeah the same. He's no.1 for rucks for disposals and CPs and no. 2 for metres gained (though Flynn in no.1 has only played 2 games to TDKs 6, so he'd be no.1 in most lists after games played qualifiers)

 

[Bletch]

If he’s the best ruck in the comp, how has his direct opponent beaten him this year?
Nank. D.Cameron. Even B.Williams.

It's the difference between being a player of influence in the game, and a ruckman who wins ruck contests.

As Coops pointed out earlier, Tom is only behind Luke Jackson in the first category. He's fast becoming an elite player. But he remains very ordinary when judged purely for his ruck-work. This larger set of stats tells more of the story:



Tom is well down the list when it comes to winning ruck contests. We all know that. But he is getting better in other areas. Notably, when he does win the contest, it is often going to Advantage (32.0% - 7th in comp.). He leads all-comers (ruckmen) in total disposals, and in Stoppage Clearances. He is in the top few in Centre Clearances. He is 8th for marks per game (a significant improvement over past seasons).

What it says, is that he isn't great at the ruck contest, but effectively adds an extra midfielder at the ball after the ruck contest.

 

[macky99]

Outlandish based on what? He's the best ruck in the comp this yr so far and is only 25. Young, currently would be AA in his position, a free agent. He's going to get offered top end money, and what he's been offered isn't really the top end of what others would be offered if they were F/A and potentially swayed. Like I said, Daicos if he ever considered it, Darcy, Reid (apparently) all would easily be offered more.

Contracts aren't always a reflection on what players have done. Contracts are offered on potential all the time and are inflated to cause player movement.

Teams wins premiership players obsessed with chasing $ are normally not part of long term team success only need to look at Geelong & Richmond models were individuals sacrificed chasing massive $ for team success.

Let's agree to disagree very rare to see such a big gap $1.1 to $1.7m our offer is a reasonable considered offer, Saints offer is grossly overvalving his worth based on performance.

 

[ctwenty1]

I believe it was Hoyne who said that he's their AA ruckman right now as well. I remember he said that about his disposal a few weeks back, though, they were awful but just about everything else he was top. If his disposal even got to average (which I think he's been much better since he mentioned it) he was always going to be no.1. If it wasn't Hoyne it was one of the other data types, King or Montagna.

I was able to find this too (The number on the right is average player rating per game, from he AFL [provided by Champion data]):
View attachment 2293583
Perhaps they looked over Jackson from the games played perspective and that he's out for a while so put TDK at 1.

Fwiw he's also our highest rated player, above Hewett in 2nd:
View attachment 2293597

With great respect to the dual brownlow medallist, Im kind of glad Crippa is down the list atm. Less reliance on him during the season the better, then he can go beast mode for the finals

 

[The Bighouse]

It's an interesting point you raise and a valid one. It is called the Easterlin Paradox. The correlation between money and happiness. It is a relationship that is poorly defined and while richer people are happier than poorer people, rich needs to be clearly defined and in relationship to happiness we are talking very different notion of 'rich' to what we are discussing in this thread. Think of developed country v 3rd world country per capita income levels. This is due to the stress of basic needs not being met.
Same within developed countries like us just a higher dollar need, in terms of having enough to put a roof over your head, kids in activities, capacity for social outlets, etc.
Once basic needs are met the relationship breaks down much quicker than people think. The way we are wired, hedonistic tendency, security of gains and other hard wired response mechanisms cause commensurate levels of stress, cancelling out the perceived happiness provided by said wealth.
It is a bell curve. Happiness rises lock step with income to a point but never past it. Personal behaviours, social structures, optimistic v pessimistic personality types then take over again regardless of the wealth once needs are met.
The number is much lower than most think. Numerous studies and research papers while not conclusive all arrive at a bell curve with increase in happiness v increase in wealth plateauing out at between just below 100k out to bit less than 200k per year. Variances being to the fact it is an inexact science, different personality types have different thresholds etc, however those that have tried modelling the economics of happiness all arrive at a similar destination

Beyond that the relationship breaks down materially. In my line of work I manage a lot of miserable buggers worth fortunes, and lovely old guys and girls commensurately cashed up.

Your approach to how you live your life, mental health etc, strong social networks, interests determines one's happiness, not balance sheet.

Have seen a lot learn this the hard way. Working 100 hr weeks, multiple marriages, kids with little respect bar for the platinum Amex. They sell the business, come to us with a 25m cheque only to find out that personal relationships remain torched, they get bored, also frustrated without purpose as they don't have the business. But hey they have 25m invested. Rinse repeat. You basically become their psychologist more so than their investment team! Not all cases but is a common theme.

Its a fascinating topic. If TDK in intrinsically happy and a commensurate alternative offer is on the table by CFC that I am sure is there abouts. It is not a simple case of take additional cash and run.
The risks to happiness and career satisfaction are stacked against him leaving for a dollar based amount when its only in the vicinity being talked about.

New environment, stress of having to perform, new colleagues/ relationships, post move regret etc. Lot to weigh up. Hope he has some good people in his corner that don't let his manager cloud his judgement whereby his manager is just chasing a clip of the ticket under the guise of 'getting the best outcome for Tom'.. Please.

Call me!

 

[TwiggleyFanClub]

Someone in Doc’s camp needs to have a quiet word with him. It’s time to call time.
Give him a dinner (he deserves it) but don’t give him any more games.

 

[Gointocarlton]

Same as TDK did 2 years ago

Still, Chad would have got a handsome deal to move but didn't.

 

[Stamos]

Someone in Doc’s camp needs to have a quiet word with him. It’s time to call time.
Give him a dinner (he deserves it) but don’t give him any more games.

You’re going to make that call from 5 games?
Why jump the gun on guy like Doc who’s been such a great player for us, and given so much?

 

[JJBagger]

You’re going to make that call from 5 games?
Why jump the gun on guy like Doc who’s been such a great player for us, and given so much?

Cause being angry and irrational is more fun (apparently)

 

[Gointocarlton]

It's an interesting point you raise and a valid one. It is called the Easterlin Paradox. The correlation between money and happiness. It is a relationship that is poorly defined and while richer people are happier than poorer people, rich needs to be clearly defined and in relationship to happiness we are talking very different notion of 'rich' to what we are discussing in this thread. Think of developed country v 3rd world country per capita income levels. This is due to the stress of basic needs not being met.
Same within developed countries like us just a higher dollar need, in terms of having enough to put a roof over your head, kids in activities, capacity for social outlets, etc.
Once basic needs are met the relationship breaks down much quicker than people think. The way we are wired, hedonistic tendency, security of gains and other hard wired response mechanisms cause commensurate levels of stress, cancelling out the perceived happiness provided by said wealth.
It is a bell curve. Happiness rises lock step with income to a point but never past it. Personal behaviours, social structures, optimistic v pessimistic personality types then take over again regardless of the wealth once needs are met.
The number is much lower than most think. Numerous studies and research papers while not conclusive all arrive at a bell curve with increase in happiness v increase in wealth plateauing out at between just below 100k out to bit less than 200k per year. Variances being to the fact it is an inexact science, different personality types have different thresholds etc, however those that have tried modelling the economics of happiness all arrive at a similar destination

Beyond that the relationship breaks down materially. In my line of work I manage a lot of miserable buggers worth fortunes, and lovely old guys and girls commensurately cashed up.

Your approach to how you live your life, mental health etc, strong social networks, interests determines one's happiness, not balance sheet.

Have seen a lot learn this the hard way. Working 100 hr weeks, multiple marriages, kids with little respect bar for the platinum Amex. They sell the business, come to us with a 25m cheque only to find out that personal relationships remain torched, they get bored, also frustrated without purpose as they don't have the business. But hey they have 25m invested. Rinse repeat. You basically become their psychologist more so than their investment team! Not all cases but is a common theme.

Its a fascinating topic. If TDK in intrinsically happy and a commensurate alternative offer is on the table by CFC that I am sure is there abouts. It is not a simple case of take additional cash and run.
The risks to happiness and career satisfaction are stacked against him leaving for a dollar based amount when its only in the vicinity being talked about.

New environment, stress of having to perform, new colleagues/ relationships, post move regret etc. Lot to weigh up. Hope he has some good people in his corner that don't let his manager cloud his judgement whereby his manager is just chasing a clip of the ticket under the guise of 'getting the best outcome for Tom'.. Please.

A player manager with morals, yeah right! Connors no less. They would be foregoing 90-200K of commission depending on their agreed % (somewhere between 2% and 5 %).