Fixture 2025 Fixture Discussion

[Dom PC]

The AFL have lacked so much foresight when it comes to this years fixture - I appreciate it is a complex balancing act and they'll always get bits wrong. But there are some key fundamentals which shouldn't be that hard to do... looking at the start times for this Saturday night's games (and other Saturday night games) and it is a real head scratcher as to why the games must start at the exact same time... at least stagger them by 15 mins so people can catch the end of both games if they so choose. Does anyone know the reason why they aren't staggered?

 

[Section 5]

The AFL have lacked so much foresight when it comes to this years fixture - I appreciate it is a complex balancing act and they'll always get bits wrong. But there are some key fundamentals which shouldn't be that hard to do... looking at the start times for this Saturday night's games (and other Saturday night games) and it is a real head scratcher as to why the games must start at the exact same time... at least stagger them by 15 mins so people can catch the end of both games if they so choose. Does anyone know the reason why they aren't staggered?

2 on at the same time 6.35pm AEST this week

Remember when the fixture was done Lions and Cats had the bye this week so had to fit us in.

 

[braddsey]

2 on at the same time 6.35pm AEST this week

Remember when the fixture was done Lions and Cats had the bye this week so had to fit us in.

Yep... but in that regard they had flexibility about where they slot the Lions vs Geelong match. My thinking is the had to schedule both games to appease sponsors of the respective clubs. If they scheduled our game to start at 7:10pm, then they get the argument from Hawks & GWS that they potentially lose eyes on their game from people who start watching the Lions game first and then don't switch over.
Starting them both at the same time takes away arguments of "preferential treatment" for on match over the other.

The only other justification I can think of is they have an agreement with CH7 that matches won't start before 7:30pm on Saturdays, so people continue to watch MAFS or whatever other shit it normally on at that time.

 

[Grasshopper17]

We pick up about 0.45 expected wins from the Swans game, but broadly speaking the models were unconvinced by our performance, dropping our expected wins across our remaining 22 games by a total of 0.16, for a net gain of around 0.29. This seems a bit unfair given our likelihood of victory over the Swans (55%) generally equates to a 4-5 point victory, which obviously we were right on.

It could equally be that the models have favourably reweighted all the other teams we are still to play twice, which given they include the 3 biggest winners from Round 1: Geelong, Collingwood and the Suns, this actually seems fair enough.

We're on a hiding to nothing this Sunday, with a 92% probability of victory, so unless we win by squillions, we're likely to have our ratings downgraded across most of the models.

View attachment 2255672

View attachment 2255673

As foreshadowed last week, the models have responded pretty unfavourably to our win over West Coast on Sunday. Obviously we pick up 0.08 expected wins from the result itself, but across the remaining 21 we lost 0.57 expected wins, for a total drop of 0.50 expected wins, from 15.47 to 14.97.

The changes have been pretty uniform, and as a result we now have expected away losses to Adelaide and Collingwood, in addition to the two to Hawthorn and Geelong we already had.

Our 62.5% likelihood of victory on Saturday against Geelong equates to a winning margin of around 2 goals.

 

[Grasshopper17]

As foreshadowed last week, the models have responded pretty unfavourably to our win over West Coast on Sunday. Obviously we pick up 0.08 expected wins from the result itself, but across the remaining 21 we lost 0.57 expected wins, for a total drop of 0.50 expected wins, from 15.47 to 14.97.

The changes have been pretty uniform, and as a result we now have expected away losses to Adelaide and Collingwood, in addition to the two to Hawthorn and Geelong we already had.

Our 62.5% likelihood of victory on Saturday against Geelong equates to a winning margin of around 2 goals.

View attachment 2262601

View attachment 2262603

We picked up +0.38 expected wins as a result of beating Geelong, but once again the models largely responded indifferently to our performance against Geelong, docking us -0.09 expected wins across the remaining 20 matches. None of the expected results have changed in an absolute sense.

We have an 82.2% likelihood of beating Richmond this weekend, which equates to a win of around 37 points.

I took these screenshots last night before the start of the round.

 

[briztoon]

I can’t remember which thread ya’ll were whinging in about the lack of recognition from the club. Well they must read here, and heard you…

66K views · 1.4K reactions | We love our VIC fans and their little traditions 😂❤️ | By Brisbane Lions | Facebook

We love our VIC fans and their little traditions 😂❤️

www.facebook.com

 

[briztoon]

 

[Dalions]

But they didn’t say thank you

 

[McLuggages]

Play twice: Geelong, Sydney, Western Bulldogs, Collingwood, Gold Coast, Hawthorn

Our fixture was already the hardest - but with GC playing well we are even more screwed as they were our only 'bottom 6 team'.

Look forward to next year when they're one of our top 6 double ups.

 

[TheZork]

Play twice: Geelong, Sydney, Western Bulldogs, Collingwood, Gold Coast, Hawthorn

Our fixture was already the hardest - but with GC playing well we are even more screwed as they were our only 'bottom 6 team'.

Look forward to next year when they're one of our top 6 double ups.

Taking positives, we are getting the dogs and pies double ups at a good time and I would argue we got the Swans and Cats at a good time too.

 

[Dalions]

Taking positives, we are getting the dogs and pies double ups at a good time and I would argue we got the Swans and Cats at a good time too.

But in reverse, they got us at a good time too.
It goes both ways, we have been anything but good.

 

[twhowler]

Taking positives, we are getting the dogs and pies double ups at a good time and I would argue we got the Swans and Cats at a good time too.

That is definitely true re dogs and pies

I think we did well v swans, they got us at a good time. cats too

we just don't really have any easy patches from here as it stands. saints even look good! and north in tassie won't be easy. i still think they will be an improver this year albeit were awful on the weekend

Need to win the next couple i think to get a proper buffer. the pre bye game worry me and we could be running on fumes by then. hawks / dons / gws / geelong / crows is a fair old run. although i guess blues home, gws away, cats away, swans neutral was a fairly tough run

maybe we need to just pretend it's september.

 

[BuntonRules]

Whatever/whoever they put in front of us........

 

[Section 5]

But in reverse, they got us at a good time too.
It goes both ways, we have been anything but good.

Taking positives, we are getting the dogs and pies double ups at a good time and I would argue we got the Swans and Cats at a good time too.

All depends on the final 2-week outcome. Hopefully hindsight reflects that we got those 2 at the right time.

The Dogs are down some good players, and we are close to full strength.

The Pies may get De-Goey back next week and possibly Schultz.
A Thursday night game makes it a bit harder for them though.

Also, the Lions need to get through the Dogs game with no injuries

PLAYER	INJURY	ESTIMATED RETURN
Jordan De Goey	Ankle	1 week
Harvey Harrison	Knee	TBC
Dan Houston	Suspension	Round 7
Ash Johnson	Leg	6-8 weeks
Reef McInnes	Knee	Season
Tom Mitchell	Foot	TBC
Lachie Schultz	Hamstring	2-3 weeks
Updated: April 8, 2025

In the mix​

Craig McRae will have to make three forced changes for Friday night's clash against Sydney at Adelaide Oval. Houston will miss the back-to-back interstate games, while Schultz might not return until after Anzac Day after straining his hamstring at training on Sunday. De Goey is sidelined again with Achilles inflammation. Lachie Sullivan, Ed Allan and Fin Macrae all put their hands up for another shot in Sunday's VFL win over Coburg. Oleg Markov, Jakob Ryan, Tew Jiath and Wil Parker are all options at half-back. Will Hoskin-Elliott kicked two goals, while draftee Charlie West produced a performance that suggests he will debut at some point this year after kicking four goals. – Josh Gabelich

 

[Grasshopper17]

We picked up +0.38 expected wins as a result of beating Geelong, but once again the models largely responded indifferently to our performance against Geelong, docking us -0.09 expected wins across the remaining 20 matches. None of the expected results have changed in an absolute sense.

We have an 82.2% likelihood of beating Richmond this weekend, which equates to a win of around 37 points.

I took these screenshots last night before the start of the round.

View attachment 2272396

View attachment 2272397

Missed this last week as I was otherwise occupied at Gather Round

We picked up 0.18 expected wins from beating Richmond and another 0.46 from beating the Bulldogs. In the meantime the models have wiped off 0.14 expected wins off our remaining 18 games. I can only imagine they weren't overly enamoured with our performance against Richmond.

We have a 63% likelihood of beating Collingwood which equates to around 10 points.



Having said that! Hawthorn's rating has taken a hit as a result of their loss to Port, so a lot of their expected wins have been scaled back considerably. So we are currently in pole position for the minor premiership according to the models. Rightly or wrongly!

 

[Grasshopper17]

Missed this last week as I was otherwise occupied at Gather Round

We picked up 0.18 expected wins from beating Richmond and another 0.46 from beating the Bulldogs. In the meantime the models have wiped off 0.14 expected wins off our remaining 18 games. I can only imagine they weren't overly enamoured with our performance against Richmond.

We have a 63% likelihood of beating Collingwood which equates to around 10 points.

View attachment 2286034

Having said that! Hawthorn's rating has taken a hit as a result of their loss to Port, so a lot of their expected wins have been scaled back considerably. So we are currently in pole position for the minor premiership according to the models. Rightly or wrongly!

View attachment 2286036

After the Collingwood game we've had Freo in Round 23 added to our suite of expected losses.

We lose 0.63 expected wins from the Collingwood game, and the models have docked us a further 0.49 expected wins across the remaining 17 games.



We've slipped all the way back to 4th in the expectations of the models, with Collingwood and Geelong now clear out in front:

 

[mpal6]

After the Collingwood game we've had Freo in Round 23 added to our suite of expected losses.

We lose 0.63 expected wins from the Collingwood game, and the models have docked us a further 0.49 expected wins across the remaining 17 games.

View attachment 2293659

We've slipped all the way back to 4th in the expectations of the models, with Collingwood and Geelong now clear out in front:

View attachment 2293662

Parking the model aside, I really want that Kardinia Park win.

They robbed us with Bailey's tackle not paid last time. I hope we get the win this time around. Narrow ground experience in Norwood Oval could come handy for this one.

 

[dlanod]

After the Collingwood game we've had Freo in Round 23 added to our suite of expected losses.

We lose 0.63 expected wins from the Collingwood game, and the models have docked us a further 0.49 expected wins across the remaining 17 games.

View attachment 2293659

We've slipped all the way back to 4th in the expectations of the models, with Collingwood and Geelong now clear out in front:

View attachment 2293662

I don't see how we can win from the top 4 so that seems fine to me.

 

[Grasshopper17]

After the Collingwood game we've had Freo in Round 23 added to our suite of expected losses.

We lose 0.63 expected wins from the Collingwood game, and the models have docked us a further 0.49 expected wins across the remaining 17 games.

View attachment 2293659

We've slipped all the way back to 4th in the expectations of the models, with Collingwood and Geelong now clear out in front:

View attachment 2293662

We picked up 0.41 expected wins on Saturday, and in addition, the models, somewhat begrudgingly it seems, gave us back another 0.30 expected wins across our remaining 16 games.

We are now broadly expected to lose to Carlton in Round 18. On the flipside we've been given our away win back against Freo. So on an all-or-nothing basis we're still expected to go 17-6.



We've lifted back up from 4th to 2nd here on the Squiggle aggregate ladder.

 

[Perrip]

 

[Grasshopper17]

We picked up 0.41 expected wins on Saturday, and in addition, the models, somewhat begrudgingly it seems, gave us back another 0.30 expected wins across our remaining 16 games.

We are now broadly expected to lose to Carlton in Round 18. On the flipside we've been given our away win back against Freo. So on an all-or-nothing basis we're still expected to go 17-6.

View attachment 2301329

We've lifted back up from 4th to 2nd here on the Squiggle aggregate ladder.

View attachment 2301331

Somehow we've gained more ground from our home 17 point win than our away 45 point win. We made up 0.38 expected wins from beating the Suns, and then all the models have chipped in with another 0.37 expected wins across our remaining 15 games.

We've also got back our away win against Carlton, so on an all-or-nothing basis we are currently expected to go 18-5.



We're still 2nd on Squiggle's aggregate ladder. No don't ask me how come Collingwood are 1st with less expected wins.

On aggregate we have an 83% chance of victory on Sunday. This roughly translates to a 34 point win. Suffice to say we should not expect any generous treatment from the models this round. Just need to keep banking these wins!

 

[BrainOfMorbius]

Here's a couple of fixturing quirks:

1.
Gold Coast gets a 5 day break before playing their second Darwin game on Thursday night v Hawthorn in R10. The following week, Hawks get 9 days to recover from the Darwin conditions before playing Brisbane.

2.
Last round, the Qld and NSW teams both played their derby games. This round, there are no games played in Qld or NSW. The anti-opening round?

 

[Perrip]

Sounding like it'll be released on Thursday according to 7 News Melbourne

 

[pOleK]

Unsure if this is the right place to put it, but was just looking at getting a few tickets for the Giants game in a few weeks. I’ve lived interstate the past few years so was just wondering if the tickets available are an accurate reflection at the moment or if they’ll release more seats closer to the game.

Definitely wouldn’t have thought in the mid-2010s a Saturday 1pm game against the Giants would nearly be a lockout a month in advance. Which is mildly annoying but a testament to the club at the moment.

 

[dlanod]

Unsure if this is the right place to put it, but was just looking at getting a few tickets for the Giants game in a few weeks. I’ve lived interstate the past few years so was just wondering if the tickets available are an accurate reflection at the moment or if they’ll release more seats closer to the game.

Definitely wouldn’t have thought in the mid-2010s a Saturday 1pm game against the Giants would nearly be a lockout a month in advance. Which is mildly annoying but a testament to the club at the moment.

We had a similar surprise getting tickets to the Adelaide game last year. They don't seem to dribble tickets out for regular season games that I could find - what you see is what there is.