Mid East Israel attacks Iran. What are the likely consequences? How will it be resolved?

[Not Important]

the thread regarding matters related to israel and the palestinians has been overrun with matters iran, thereby diminishing discussion about the genocide being experienced by the palestinians. so i thought a thread relating to the attack by Israel on iran was called for.

israeli historian avi shlaim:

"iran has never attacked a neighbour.
israel has repeatedly attacked its neighbours.
iran signed the nonproliferation treaty.
israel has refused to sign.
iran submits to inspection by the international nuclear energy agency
israel refuses to submit.
iran has no nuclear weapons.
israel has between 75 and 400.
so, israel poses an existential threat to iran. for the past 40 years has conducted a systematic
campaign of disinformation about iran. why the lies? why the hypocrisy?"

The regime change the West needs is the end of Netanyahu

Benjamin Netanyahu's unprovoked attack on Iran is another in the long list of examples of how the right is now the biggest threat to global stability and security.

www.crikey.com.au

Australia’s claim that Israel has a right to defend itself against Iran is inconsistent with our rules-based order | Ben Saul

While Australia rightly urges de-escalation, it also fails to condemn Israel’s attack on Iran

www.theguardian.com

In Gaza, Israel destroyed its reputation. Attacking Iran is a belated and dangerous attempt to restore it | Nesrine Malik

Losing credibility Netanyahu has acted to diminish Iran while he still can, and in doing so regain support from his allies, says Guardian columnist Nesrine Malik

www.theguardian.com

 

[Not Important]

 

[Number37]

It's becoming clearer that Israel is goading Iran into attacking something that the US will step in to defend.
Israel is also very clearly targeting top Iranian officials to attempt to trigger regime change.
Most probably with a nod and wink from Donny.

Missiles are flying both ways, with very little damage.
Israel has learned that its Iron Dome isn't going to stop anything other than old tech missiles.

Lots of talk by both sides along the lines of 'wait til you see what we do next'.

If I was an Iranian I would be concerned but no more than usual.
If I was an Israeli I would be very concerned.

Not many in Israel would have thought that anyone could lob missiles into central Tel Aviv.
The longer this goes the more the illusion of the security of Israel evaporates.

 

[Not Important]

Israel's History Of Manufacturing The 'Iran Nuclear Threat'

Israel Has Been Peddling Their Current Iran War Deception For A Long Time.

open.substack.com

 

[Not Important]

It's becoming clearer that Israel is goading Iran into attacking something that the US will step in to defend.
Israel is also very clearly targeting top Iranian officials to attempt to trigger regime change.
Most probably with a nod and wink from Donny.

Missiles are flying both ways, with very little damage.
Israel has learned that its Iron Dome isn't going to stop anything other than old tech missiles.

Lots of talk by both sides along the lines of 'wait til you see what we do next'.

If I was an Iranian I would be concerned but no more than usual.
If I was an Israeli I would be very concerned.

Not many in Israel would have thought that anyone could lob missiles into central Tel Aviv.
The longer this goes the more the illusion of the security of Israel evaporates.

someone suggested elsewhere that the "Iranian regime is close to capitulating" that's arrant nonsense.

"So, Iran is far from a democracy. But the idea that regime change would lead to a full democracy that is aligned with Israel and the US is very unlikely."

i'd say more a pipe dream than "very unlikely"

Regime change wouldn’t likely bring democracy to Iran. A more threatening force could fill the vacuum

Israel has made clear its desire for regime change in Iran. But if the supreme leader is toppled, the next government would not likely be any friendlier to the West.

theconversation.com

 

[nut]

It's becoming clearer that Israel is goading Iran into attacking something that the US will step in to defend.
Israel is also very clearly targeting top Iranian officials to attempt to trigger regime change.
Most probably with a nod and wink from Donny.

Missiles are flying both ways, with very little damage.
Israel has learned that its Iron Dome isn't going to stop anything other than old tech missiles.

Lots of talk by both sides along the lines of 'wait til you see what we do next'.

If I was an Iranian I would be concerned but no more than usual.
If I was an Israeli I would be very concerned.

Not many in Israel would have thought that anyone could lob missiles into central Tel Aviv.
The longer this goes the more the illusion of the security of Israel evaporates.

It wouldn’t surprise me that Israel’s treatment of the Palestinians was to provoke Iran into starting this war. When they didn’t .. Israel couldn’t resist throwing the first punch.

This will be another never ending war…

When is the last time the US was not involved in a war? The military industrial complex more specifically….

 

[Deliverance]

Israel's History Of Manufacturing The 'Iran Nuclear Threat'

Israel Has Been Peddling Their Current Iran War Deception For A Long Time.

open.substack.com

Iran was quite compliant until Trumps first term. They ramped up their nuclear weapon development seriously once he wound back the Obama deal and slapped sanctions on them. If this goes nuclear, he's a significant part of why.

 

[Not Important]

It wouldn’t surprise me that Israel’s treatment of the Palestinians was to provoke Iran into starting this war. When they didn’t .. Israel couldn’t resist throwing the first punch.

This will be another never ending war…

When is the last time the US was not involved in a war? The military industrial complex more specifically….

it's been a long-held ambition of crazies like netanyahu to demolish the state of palestine. the hamas attack gave them the pretext. the lack of blowback by a weak, largely ineffective west has assisted them in getting away with the genocide and may have emboldened them, but i doubt iran was a key consideration

 

[Not Important]

Iran was quite compliant until Trumps first term. They ramped up their nuclear weapon development seriously once he wound back the Obama deal and slapped sanctions on them. If this goes nuclear, he's a significant part of why.

The Iran nuclear deal that Trump ditched - ABC listen

It was one of US President Barack Obama’s key foreign policy achievements back in 2015. The Iran nuclear deal, though far from perfect, prevented Iran from advancing its own nuclear program. President Trump withdrew from the deal in 2018, claiming it failed to curtail Iran’s missile program and...

www.abc.net.au

 

[kalex6251]

vague reference on another website i read - something planned for thursday night (friday morning our time) ..... has anyone heard chatter along these line elsewhere on the net?

[edit] apologies for the lack of info (it was that vague) .... the inference was the US was looking to involve itself - in someway

 

[pjcrows]

"The US was looking to involve itself"

The US is already involved. They're the chief architects of all Middle East conflict.

 

[Mofra]

One view from a high-ranking retired US military chief.

Iran's response is entirely using up it's "old missile" stocks. Munitions do degrade with time, so Iran is keeping most of it's newer missile (including hypersonic) missile fleet on the ground as it seeks a negotiation partner (the US is no longer trustworthy). This also serves to exhaust Israeli defensive capabilities in the hope that as they start to run low on anti-air missile capable of intercepting long range attacks, the 'higher end' Iranian missile are unleashed.

Israel cant stop Iranian attacks indefinitely and is racing the clock to destroy as much Iranian launch capability as possible, which may be an impossible task as Iran has spent decades planning for this. Israel has cut off the head with their targeted attacks (military chiefs and Iran's anti-air capabilities) but the fangs are still there.

 

[Cookie]

"The US was looking to involve itself"

The US is already involved. They're the chief architects of all Middle East conflict.

I see the US as the enabler rather than the architect.
Given their performances since WWII, they couldn't fight their way out of a wet paper bag.

 

[Not Important]

marque lawyers (@marquelawyers.com.au)

The definition of a global conspiracy is the entire world pretending that Trump has the slightest idea what he’s doing to stop WWIII breaking out, when we all know he probably can’t even spell “Iran”.

bsky.app

 

[Not Important]

same bullshit. different century.

Abul Rizvi (@abulrizvi.bsky.social)

1984 report that Iran would have a nuclear weapon in 2 years. https://www.upi.com/Archives/1984/04/24/Ayatollah-bomb-in-production-for-Iran/4490451630800/

bsky.app

'Ayatollah' bomb in production for Iran - UPI Archives

Iran is moving 'very quickly' toward production of a nuclear bomb and could have such a weapon within two years, the authoritative Jane's Defence Weekly...

www.upi.com

 

[Not Important]

jon always hits the mark - emphatically

 

[Not Important]

 

[SBD Gonzalez]

Just listening on ABC radio to a former Australian diplomat to several Middle East countries and now academic (didn’t catch his name).

He says Trump has NFI how much he’s been played by Iran and Israel. Completely out of his depth.

Also says that contrary to popular perception, Israel has NFI what it’s trying to do in Iran.

 

[SBD Gonzalez]

"So, Iran is far from a democracy. But the idea that regime change would lead to a full democracy that is aligned with Israel and the US is very unlikely."

i'd say more a pipe dream than "very unlikely"

Yeah, I mean Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya are such exemplary thriving democracies these days.

 

[Mitcham VIC 3132]

Yeah, I mean Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya are such exemplary thriving democracies these days.

they are all not real countries- Libya and Somalia fell apart because of that once Barre and Gaddafi were gone. Insisting on the old colonial borders was one of the stupidest things the UN ever did. Makes the LoN in the 1930s look like Hawking and Einstein.

 

[Mitcham VIC 3132]

It is easier for a person in a democracy to plot from an armchair as a hypothetical than for a democratic state to actually execute, especially when so many of their politicians know that the enemies will make it cost tons of treasure and buckets of blood and it is not just "throwing a shitty little country up against the wall" like post Desert Storm, post 9/11 Iraq.

 

[pjcrows]

I see the US as the enabler rather than the architect.
Given their performances since WWII, they couldn't fight their way out of a wet paper bag.

That's true, but they're still the architects. They love a good proxy war.

 

[Mitcham VIC 3132]

So did the Eastern Bloc (Vietnam, Angola)

 

[schneebly111]

Israel named it's attacks "Operating Rising Lion". The symbol of the Shah, Reza Pahlavi, was a lion. I think it's a subtle hint that he wants the former monarchy restored and the monarch as a Israel/US friendly dictator. Except by bombing things like apartment buildings, nuclear power plants and other civilian targets they've united Iranians behind their government and against Netanyahu.

 

[IlovethePies]

The White House’s claim that a sixth round of talks would be held in Oman last Sunday between US and Iranian officials on a peaceful resolution to the nuclear conflict was a ruse, designed to lure Iran’s political and military leaders into a death-trap.

The fact that the Iranian government fell for it, so desperate was it to do a deal with the criminals in the White House and the Knesset, is a measure of its political bankruptcy. To have trusted such psychopaths has now created the situation where Israel and the US are feeling free to join together in a blitzkrieg against the people of Iran.

All the G7 governments are complicit in the impending war of aggression against Iran. Issued Monday evening, the “G7 Leaders’ statement on recent developments between Israel and Iran” casts Iran as the aggressor, and greenlights escalation of the war. It affirms that “Israel has a right to defend itself;” pledges the imperialist powers’ support “for the security of Israel,” and condemns Iran as “the principal source of regional instability and terror.”

What a lie! It is Israel, not Iran, that illegally acquired nuclear weapons with imperialist assistance, and that refuses any and all International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) oversight of its nuclear program or to otherwise abide by the provisions of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.

And it was Washington that in 2018 abrogated the UN-backed Iran nuclear accord, with Trump unilaterally imposing sweeping, globally-applicable sanctions on Tehran with the aim of crashing Iran’s economy and precipitating regime change. Western intelligence agencies have repeatedly conceded that there is no evidence Iran is pursuing nuclear weapons and, even were it to do so, Tehran is years away from fashioning such a weapon.

This is a replay of the 2003 Gulf War. Non-existent nuclear weapons are about to be utilised as a pretext for annihilating the civilians of Iran, along with all life sustaining infrastructure.