Rumour Bluemour Discussion XXXIX

[Matty411]

To the Bluemour from Beyond Blue - I thought Liam Ryan

1

Liam Ryan

Age

29

Ht

181cm

Wt

76kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

11.3

3star

K

8.6

3star

HB

2.7

2star

M

3.0

3star

T

2.0

4star

G

1.3

5star

D

9.9

3star

K

8.0

3star

HB

1.9

1star

M

3.3

3star

T

1.6

3star

G

1.3

5star

D

11.4

3star

K

9.0

4star

HB

2.4

3star

M

3.8

4star

T

1.8

4star

G

1.6

5star

was going to Saints but good shout that he meets with both clubs and sees which one can do a better deal with WC.

As for Freo, it could be Erasmus but his type probably doesn't suit our list. Switta is a popular figure so not sure it'd be him.

Most likely is Liam Reidy give TDK is goneski.

 

[swuzzlebubble]

Is it written anywhere that the compensation pick can only be the pick after your own first rounder?

The AFL have compensation "bands" and this is the highest band

 

[gab213]

St.Kilda has placed itself and these two players under enormous pressure. At this stage, they aren't the best two players in the comp, and there's a great chance that they never will be.

The ferals at St. Kilda will turn on them quickly if they don't meet their expectations.

I don't blame Tom for accepting the offer, $700,000 p.a. more over 7 or 8 years. I doubt there's one player in the league who would knock that back. I'm more pissed about Jack leaving for very little or no more than what we're offering, and then the only reason I care is because of his name.

Losing them is hard to take, but it doesn't make us an appreciably worse team, it's not as consequential as some are making it out to be.

We've known for ages that both Tom and Jack would leave. I'm pretty much over it and more interested in what's to come.

 

[Dramoth]

Yes sorry you are right. This free agency thing is a joke

The fact that the AFL can make up compensation for clubs on the fly is the joke. The AFL needs to have a set guideline of where each band falls and whether the salaries of players fall within that band. We got ****ed over by the AFL with the Waite compensation. He should have gotten us a second round (band 3) pick based on the length of his new contract and his new salary. But they made up some bullshit and screwed us.

 

[Dramoth]

The AFL have compensation "bands" and this is the highest band

Unless you're really shit and the AFL decides to hand you a start of round 1 compensation pick. It has happened.

 

[Curnowisagun]

The AFL have compensation "bands" and this is the highest band

The bands appear only relevant to what has has happened in past free agency. I just had a quick look at the afl page to see what is written...

The compensation formula produces a points rating for players based on:

The new contract of the free agent;
The age of the free agent.

Draft picks are allocated to clubs based on the net total points for free agents lost and gained during the transfer period.

Draft picks will be allocated to one of five places:

1st round
end of 1st round
2nd round
end of 2nd round
3rd round

In applying the formula, an expert committee reviews the formula outcomes. The committee has the power to recommend alternative outcomes to GM – Football Operations where the formula produces a materially anomalous result.

It just says first rd, what would be stopping us from questioning the AFL on the formula and getting a higher first rd pick than our own given it just says first round. This TDK free agency move hasn't happened before, hope we are pushing on a higher pick because of the unprecedented situation. Top Ruckman in his prime about to be the second highest paid player in the game!

 

[gab213]

I'd be quite happy for the AFL to remove the compensation picks handed out when a player takes up their free agency option. It impacts 16 clubs that are unrelated to the move.

 

[Sector 7G]

The fact that the AFL can make up compensation for clubs on the fly is the joke. The AFL needs to have a set guideline of where each band falls and whether the salaries of players fall within that band. We got ****ed over by the AFL with the Waite compensation. He should have gotten us a second round (band 3) pick based on the length of his new contract and his new salary. But they made up some bullshit and screwed us.

I have no problem with no compensation for Waite. 30yr + that we could have retained if we were prepared to offer a 2 year contract to. We weren't, so he left and we got what we deserved.

 

[reubsblues]

George Wardlaw and his management have stepped away from negotiations with North.

Not happy with the medical department but loves Clarkson.

Could be gettable, would we take the risk?

100% I love the way wardlaw goes about it

 

[smit_is]

Is this Juddy dropping subliminal hints about Vossy and Longmire?

 

[Chemical]

Tom De Koning​

• Assumptions consistent with reporting: AAV ≈ $1.5m, 7 years, age 25, Carlton offer strong but materially lower than rival.
• Base (≥90th pct) = 1
• Length (7y) = –1.0
• Age (25) = 0
• Retention (competitive but clearly lower) = +0.25
• Final Band calc: 1−1.0+0+0.25=0.25→round=11 - 1.0 + 0 + 0.25 = 0.25 \rightarrow \text{round} = \mathbf{1}1−1.0+0+0.25=0.25→round=1

TDK result: Band 1

• With Carlton finishing 11th (natural pick would have been Pick 8, but traded), Band 1 yields the pick after that ⇒ theoretical Pick 9.
• After academy/NGA bid creep and extra Band-1 comps (e.g., Oscar Allen
  12

  Oscar Allen

  Age

  26

  Ht

  196cm

  Wt

  96kg

  Pos.

  Fwd

  Career

  Season

  Last 5

  D

  9.8

  2star

  K

  6.6

  3star

  HB

  3.2

  3star

  M

  3.8

  4star

  T

  2.4

  4star

  G

  1.1

  4star

  No current season stats available

  D

  8.6

  3star

  K

  5.8

  3star

  HB

  2.8

  3star

  M

  3.8

  4star

  T

  2.0

  4star

  G

  1.2

  4star

  , Draper scenarios), the numeric slot likely lands ~Pick 11–13.

Jack Silvagni​

• Assumptions: AAV ≈ $0.65–0.70m, 4 years, age 27, Carlton offer close to rivals.
• Base (70–89th pct) = 2
• Length (4y) = 0
• Age (27) = 0
• Retention (very close) = +0.5 or (close but not equal) +0.25
  • Using +0.25 (most realistic): 2+0+0+0.25=2.25→round=22 + 0 + 0 + 0.25 = 2.25 \rightarrow \text{round} = \mathbf{2}2+0+0+0.25=2.25→round=2
  • If AFL deems it very close: 2.5→round=32.5 \rightarrow \text{round} = 32.5→round=3

Silvagni result: Band 2 most likely (Band 3 is a live but less likely outcome)

• Band 2 = end of round 1 ⇒ ~Pick 19–21 once comp picks and bids are inserted.

 

[Lukeblueboy]

Tom De Koning​

• Assumptions consistent with reporting: AAV ≈ $1.5m, 7 years, age 25, Carlton offer strong but materially lower than rival.
• Base (≥90th pct) = 1
• Length (7y) = –1.0
• Age (25) = 0
• Retention (competitive but clearly lower) = +0.25
• Final Band calc: 1−1.0+0+0.25=0.25→round=11 - 1.0 + 0 + 0.25 = 0.25 \rightarrow \text{round} = \mathbf{1}1−1.0+0+0.25=0.25→round=1

TDK result: Band 1

• With Carlton finishing 11th (natural pick would have been Pick 8, but traded), Band 1 yields the pick after that ⇒ theoretical Pick 9.
• After academy/NGA bid creep and extra Band-1 comps (e.g., Oscar Allen, Draper scenarios), the numeric slot likely lands ~Pick 11–13.

Jack Silvagni​

• Assumptions: AAV ≈ $0.65–0.70m, 4 years, age 27, Carlton offer close to rivals.
• Base (70–89th pct) = 2
• Length (4y) = 0
• Age (27) = 0
• Retention (very close) = +0.5 or (close but not equal) +0.25
  • Using +0.25 (most realistic): 2+0+0+0.25=2.25→round=22 + 0 + 0 + 0.25 = 2.25 \rightarrow \text{round} = \mathbf{2}2+0+0+0.25=2.25→round=2
  • If AFL deems it very close: 2.5→round=32.5 \rightarrow \text{round} = 32.5→round=3

Silvagni result: Band 2 most likely (Band 3 is a live but less likely outcome)

• Band 2 = end of round 1 ⇒ ~Pick 19–21 once comp picks and bids are inserted.

 

[Sector 7G]

There really shouldn't be a band 2 compensation to FA. Just get rid of it. It make s no sense why teams get the same value given it is generally teams in the 8 getting the FA for nothing and raiding bottom clubs. Compensation last year was ridiculously generous as it was assessed on the salary cap at the time not on what it is going to be in the new pay structure. Perryman and Battle should have been band 2 as no one would give a first round pick for either of them.

 

[SurreyBlue]

The bands appear only relevant to what has has happened in past free agency. I just had a quick look at the afl page to see what is written...

The compensation formula produces a points rating for players based on:

The new contract of the free agent;
The age of the free agent.

Draft picks are allocated to clubs based on the net total points for free agents lost and gained during the transfer period.

Draft picks will be allocated to one of five places:

1st round
end of 1st round
2nd round
end of 2nd round
3rd round

In applying the formula, an expert committee reviews the formula outcomes. The committee has the power to recommend alternative outcomes to GM – Football Operations where the formula produces a materially anomalous result.

It just says first rd, what would be stopping us from questioning the AFL on the formula and getting a higher first rd pick than our own given it just says first round. This TDK free agency move hasn't happened before, hope we are pushing on a higher pick because of the unprecedented situation. Top Ruckman in his prime about to be the second highest paid player in the game!

I would be demanding 2 top 10 picks as compensation for such an offer.

 

[AndyLucimitis]

And doesn’t Carlton great and triple premiership player and Inaugural Norm Smith Medalist Wayne Harmes now attend Richmond games - the team he supported as a child growing up.

I think he may have said that once to wind people up so not sure if it's actually true.

 

[chickendippas]

View attachment 2403088

Is this Juddy dropping subliminal hints about Vossy and Longmire?

With Kreuzer as senior assistant.

Reckon we’ve cracked the code.

 

[KnaveyBlue]

Don’t think Peter Dean would have an issue jumping SOS’ fence and having a word.

I had wondered whether this angle would come into it.

I'm sure in theory SOS would have no trouble screwing Carlton by bidding - would probably enjoy it in fact. But does he hate us enough to actively use Peter Dean's son to weaken our team?

 

[bluekidjoe]

I had wondered whether this angle would come into it.

I'm sure in theory SOS would have no trouble screwing Carlton by bidding - would probably enjoy it in fact. But does he hate us enough to actively use Peter Dean's son to weaken our team?

All I know is that if he did this it would be the definitive end of the Silvagni legacy at Carlton.

 

[Garters]

St.Kilda has placed itself and these two players under enormous pressure. At this stage, they aren't the best two players in the comp, and there's a great chance that they never will be.

The ferals at St. Kilda will turn on them quickly if they don't meet their expectations.

I don't blame Tom for accepting the offer, $700,000 p.a. more over 7 or 8 years. I doubt there's one player in the league who would knock that back. I'm more pissed about Jack leaving for very little or no more than what we're offering, and then the only reason I care is because of his name.

Losing them is hard to take, but it doesn't make us an appreciably worse team, it's not as consequential as some are making it out to be.

We've known for ages that both Tom and Jack would leave. I'm pretty much over it and more interested in what's to come.

My cousin ( their whole fam) mad Saints supporters. He is already spitting venom at the gaps in their list, and that they already have a good ruckman yadda yadda, we now dont have any cap space yadda, yadda.
If he wasn't my cousin I would have hung up on him. Nas and TDK have some eye watering work ahead of them to keep the feral masses appeased.

 

[yibbida]

If someone offered you 2 million dollars to support a different team, would you?

Contractually, yes...... but only for the duration of the contract and only during the game. The rest of the time I'm phoning it in......

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

All I know is that if he did this it would be the definitive end of the Silvagni legacy at Carlton.

That legacy is over the second Jack walks out the door. Stephen is as bitter a flog as there is.

 

[agro]

All I know is that if he did this it would be the definitive end of the Silvagni legacy at Carlton.

Given the fact that SOS is the Nonno now and paterfamilias I’d say it’s a distinct possibility.

 

[The Flying Doormat]

Waiting on the JSOS announcement….

 

[RPCB]

That legacy is over the second Jack walks out the door. Stephen is as bitter a flog as there is.

Ah well, someone who is no long at Carlton sacked SOS and he now hates the club. It’s as moronic as it sounds.

 

[Coops93]

So much praise for St Kilda gambling on NWM and TDK, what if either or both sustain a long-term injury? A ridiculous strategy for mine, especially when it could not be clearer that NWM will not be there for the long haul anyway.

"Pay me $2m a year for two years and I'll think about staying, I pinky promise!"

I think there's lots of praise for the NWM move, not so much for TDK. If anything, there's been a lot of questions about the TDK move.