Autopsy AFL 2025 Second Elimination Final - Freo v Suns Sat Sept 6th 7:35pm AEST/5:35pm WST (OS)

[Kapow!!!]

Wooooooooo



FINALS PUMPED!!!

I'm absolutely stoked you guys made it. Your core supporters like yourself absolutely deserve this. You've been my second side all year and I love watching your club build its base with some really vocal and passionate core members at games. Your Melbourne cheersquad is also pretty impressive as well.

Should be a great game and whoever wins I hope knocks Brisbane off the following week

 

[ice444]

Freo by 2-3 goals...

 

[GC2015]

Your Melbourne cheersquad is also pretty impressive as well.

I don't think we have much support in WA so it's going to be an extremely one-sided crowd. Will be interesting to see how our guys react to it because they've never played in front of that many people. When the bright lights are on - will we thrive or falter? No one knows!

 

[largebus]

It's sold out, as expected

 

[Chronz]

Freo by 6 goals.

 

[My Tilly]

Fremantle start off slow before coasting to a 5 goal victory.

 

[a_fighting_fury]

Based on stats alone, I can’t see the Suns winning this match.
TACKLE DIFFERENTIAL 15th
CONTESTED POSSESSION DIFF. 12th
GROUNDBALL GET DIFF. 16th
LOOSE BALL GET DIFF. 17th
D50 TO F50 TRANSITION RATE 18th
GOALS PER INSIDE 50 17th

 

[a_fighting_fury]

Suns and Freo match up pretty well, never really destroyed each other over the years. The game will come down to which version of both side rocks up, both have had elite games and both also buckled when a top 4 spot was up for grabs. Whoever wins I think it will be a tight contest but its hard to not pick the Dockers at home

Suns haven’t beaten Freo since 2022 — and have won just 1 of the last 5 games against them.

 

[Jirik13]

Based on stats alone, I can’t see the Suns winning this match.
TACKLE DIFFERENTIAL 15th
CONTESTED POSSESSION DIFF. 12th
GROUNDBALL GET DIFF. 16th
LOOSE BALL GET DIFF. 17th
D50 TO F50 TRANSITION RATE 18th
GOALS PER INSIDE 50 17th

You chose wrong stats, haha. Those ones certainly don't look good. I believe you got to look for scores from stoppages, clearances

It was very close game this year in the wet on GC. Freo played really well and jumped Suns at start. It does look like it could be a wet game again. Suns countered Darcy and Jackson combo with 2 rucks too in Witts and Moyle. It was the only time Suns played them together this year, I doubt they will do it again.

Incredibly, Suns are firmly imbedded in Premiership Window according to On the Couch show. PF #4, PA #5. For comparison Freo PF #9, PA #7.

Suns are not as good away yet. Hopefully, they learned from Port experience where Suns were undisciplined, struggled under pressure to make finals, looked flat. It was a tough crowd with incredible noise of affirmation from umpires. It will be probably similar in Perth.

Having Rioli and Humphrey back certainly helps. Dimma's and fan favourite Graham who was hit by family tragedy could be back too.

At home, Freo by 23.

 

[Brenton87]

Suns haven’t beaten Freo since 2022 — and have won just 1 of the last 5 games against them.

Yeah i know and in each game since then has been decided by a couple of kicks, Dockers have never destroyed the Suns. All I'm saying is it should be a close contest. Dockers should win but anything can happen

 

[GC2015]

Based on stats alone, I can’t see the Suns winning this match.
TACKLE DIFFERENTIAL 15th
CONTESTED POSSESSION DIFF. 12th
GROUNDBALL GET DIFF. 16th
LOOSE BALL GET DIFF. 17th
D50 TO F50 TRANSITION RATE 18th
GOALS PER INSIDE 50 17th

Funny how you can manipulate stats to fit any narrative. Fox Footy also did a top 6 offensive + defensive statistical analysis for the season and found we're entering this finals series inside their premiership window and Fremantle are outside in both areas. Only four teams are inside their window (Suns, Lions, Cats & Cats) and I think they 17 of the last 18 premiers have been inside their premiership window analysis. So take from that what you will.

 

[Piggy Smalls]

Funny how you can manipulate stats to fit any narrative. Fox Footy also did a top 6 offensive + defensive statistical analysis for the season and found we're entering this finals series inside their premiership window and Fremantle are outside in both areas. Only four teams are inside their window (Suns, Lions, Cats & Cats) and I think they 17 of the last 18 premiers have been inside their premiership window analysis. So take from that what you will.

I reckon we'd be in that window if you just did top 9 v top 9

 

[GC2015]

I reckon we'd be in that window if you just did top 9 v top 9

So you're suggesting Fremantle struggled against bottom 9 teams this year? I reckon both Freo and the Suns have been inconsistent this year. Our best is top 4 footy, but are our worst is probably not top 8 footy.

 

[Piggy Smalls]

So you're suggesting Fremantle struggled against bottom 9 teams this year? I reckon both Freo and the Suns have been inconsistent this year. Our best is top 4 footy, but are our worst is probably not top 8 footy.

7-3 vs top 9
9-4 vs bottom 9

We've definitely not fared as well against bottom 9 teams as some of the other teams, hence our lower percentage.

 

[GC2015]

7-3 vs top 9
9-4 vs bottom 9

We've definitely not fared as well against bottom 9 teams as some of the other teams, hence our lower percentage.

So our breakdown is:

5-6 vs top 9
10-2 vs bottom 9

So we were obviously very good against bottom 9 teams this year and almost always beat the teams we should've beaten throughout the season. It's worth pointing out that we beat three of the four teams placed in the top 4 this year, with Geelong being the one top 4 team we didn't registed a win against this year. Overall, it's essentially a 50/50 split for us against top 9 teams and that's what you would expect of a team that finishes in the 5-8 range. Interesting that we ended up playing more top 9 opposition than Freo this year, despite the Dockers just missing the finals in 2024 and we were placed in the bottom 6. I guess that's just how it goes when it comes to the draw. A slightly easier draw for Fremantle and a worse record against bottom 9 teams has resulted in our two teams essentially in very similar positions.

Our best (wins against Collingwood + Brisbane) is very good, but our worst (losses against Port and Richmond) is bad. However, I do think we've shown more consistency as a top 8 team than Fremantle this year. So that's something.

 

[My_Username]

This year was all about getting finals experience, so we've already 'won'.

That said, every game is a chance, and if we do win, the following week could well be against Brisbane, which would be epic.

 

[Charade19]

I think the Suns will take it and it will be a close game.

 

[thewizardmelon]

So you're suggesting Fremantle struggled against bottom 9 teams this year? I reckon both Freo and the Suns have been inconsistent this year. Our best is top 4 footy, but are our worst is probably not top 8 footy.

This is the most important part. Our floor is still higher than it has been in the last 3-4 years, and our ceiling is of course higher too. But the inconsistency remains. Hopefully the emotion of last week doesn’t sting us too badly and we’re up and about early.

Looking forward to a close contest!

 

[GC2015]

This is the most important part. Our floor is still higher than it has been in the last 3-4 years, and our ceiling is of course higher too. But the inconsistency remains. Hopefully the emotion of last week doesn’t sting us too badly and we’re up and about early.

Looking forward to a close contest!

I think Dimma is going to play into the emotions even more by selecting Will Graham (his brother passed a few weeks ago and he hasn't played since) and potentially inaugural Sun David Swallow as well.

 

[The Lobbster]

Funny how you can manipulate stats to fit any narrative. Fox Footy also did a top 6 offensive + defensive statistical analysis for the season and found we're entering this finals series inside their premiership window and Fremantle are outside in both areas. Only four teams are inside their window (Suns, Lions, Cats & Cats) and I think they 17 of the last 18 premiers have been inside their premiership window analysis. So take from that what you will.

This Window is just a fancy way of displaying percentage. It is not “analysis of offensive and defensive stats”. It’s just points for and points against.

Whilst it’s decent at picking the premier, being in the window doesn’t mean you’ll do well in finals. Melbourne in 2023 were in the window and went out in straight sets, including a loss to Carlton who weren’t in the window.

 

[Jirik13]

This Window is just a fancy way of displaying percentage. It is not “analysis of offensive and defensive stats”. It’s just points for and points against.

Whilst it’s decent at picking the premier, being in the window doesn’t mean you’ll do well in finals. Melbourne in 2023 were in the window and went out in straight sets, including a loss to Carlton who weren’t in the window.

Spot on but you do have to be in the window to have a chance to become premier (ok, 17 out of 18).

 

[PrancingPony]

I got my ticket for next week, should be a fun time.

Hoping for a good win but I won't write off Gold Coast.

 

[Orange crush]

Expecting a certain pony to do a bit of prancing … gcs gonna struggle to match up on the Freo talls

 

[Cam Payne]

We're lucky this isn't against a team outside of the eight. Freo by 24 and a nice little trip down to GOOMBA stadium next week.

 

[Yellow Feathers]

Surely we beat this team of 23 spuds and a wimp coach. Go SUNS