List Mgmt. 2025 List Management Discussion - Part IV

[Hubnester]

2025 List Management Discussion - Part 4

Now that our season is over, and news is starting to break - it's time for a fresh thread.

This thread is to discuss all things list management - trades, draft, free agency, delistings and more.
As we are now officially in our off-season, we'll be wanting to keep this thread more strictly on-topic than the previous iterations.
Be respectful. You are allowed to disagree with someone - but play the ball, not the man. Repeat offenders will have their posting rights revoked.

Thanks to Lore once again for this incredibly useful spreadsheet.

2025 KEY DATES
Free Agency Period: Friday, October 3rd - Friday, October 10th
Trade Period: Monday, October 6th - Wednesday, October 15th
AFL Draft: Wednesday, November 19th - Thursday, November 20th

See Also:
2025 Year in Review Rumours & Confirmed Movements 2025 Draft Discussion
​

 

[ScrappyDo]

Salary Cap Estimate

I've estimated the Saints’ salary cap position, based on based on reported contract values and AFL cap accounting assumptions.
It looks very healthy heading into 2026 and primed for a 2026 Free Agent.

2025: AFL salary cap was $17.78m. St Kilda reportedly spent only 83% (~$14.76m).

2025: Unused cap space carried forward – around $3.9m likely front-loaded into existing 2025 contracts.

2026: AFL salary cap $18.29m.

2026: Estimated raw player spend (based on reported contracts and estimates) – $19.64m.

2026: Adjusted cap spend (after front-loading using 2025 savings) – $15.73m, or 85.9% of the cap.

2026: Remaining capacity to front-load – approximately $1.65m in existing 2026 contracts.

2027 salary cap $18.44m.

2027: Estimated spend $17.99m – around 97.6% of the cap, a strong and sustainable position.

Summary:
This is a conservative estimate as it assumes our salary spend is $19.64M on average in both 2026 and 2027, but it suggests St Kilda are about $2.5–3 million under the 2026 AFL cap after front-loading adjustments. The club has strong flexibility, with the ability to spend 105% in both 2027 and 2028 and the ability to front-load further without breaching cap limits.

Further allowance for salary increases for up and coming players salary appears to be allowed for given some senior player contracts tapering off and retirements are likely.

It appears to be very well-managed, and will allow St Kilda to be competitive in free agency in 2026.

Go Saints.

We currently have a high number of 18-20yo that will consume cap space with growing payments. By your estimates there's enough in the kitty to handle that but room for another big name probably isn't there without losing the likes of Steele and Marshall

 

[Saints43]

Butters for Marshall, Saints F1 in 2026 and F1 2027. Who says no?

Pencil Case

 

[Saintos The ITK]

It's more likely to be Soldo than Butters, you guys need to chill

Let us dream joog

 

[SainterinSydney]

It's more likely to be Soldo than Butters, you guys need to chill

Soldo is not something you go to ground on in trade period lol

 

[Dr Spaceman]

I think he is referring to Soldo.

Which connects what Tom Morris said to what I said yesterday that Marshall is very much on the table still.

Would be really strange to recruit Soldo a year after he failed a medical with us.

 

[StJimmy]

No, that doesn’t explain the agent blowing up with a statement a few hours after straight to Tom Morris.

It doesn’t explain us walking away.

Deals fall apart all the time.

The sticking point was the second rounder. It was seemingly a non negotiable.

At this point I’m guessing we asked to walk Aleer through the PSD. (SOS did so with Martin when at Carlton) the agent probably loyal to the giants told us otherwise and to pay what they wanted and we walked.

We changed our minds on Aleer prior to trade period, went through the motions then walked away

 

[SaintyMcSaintface]

Oh wow, I can't wait to see who we are after instead of Aleer....

"... Ivan soldo

13

Ivan Soldo

Age

29

Ht

204cm

Wt

110kg

Pos.

Ruck

Career

Season

Last 5

D

8.0

2star

K

3.9

2star

HB

4.1

3star

CL

2.4

4star

HO

24.2

5star

D

7.3

2star

K

3.1

1star

HB

4.1

3star

CL

2.4

4star

HO

23.0

5star

D

6.4

2star

K

3.0

1star

HB

3.4

3star

CL

1.6

4star

HO

21.4

5star

..."

 

[BrutThough]

No there is a difference

So he didn't fail, he just didnt score high enough to pass.

 

[maanco]

We currently have a high number of 18-20yo that will consume cap space with growing payments. By your estimates there's enough in the kitty to handle that but room for another big name probably isn't there without losing the likes of Steele and Marshall

That's true. All though we will be able to use 105% of the salary cap in 2027.

And there are only a few players out of contract in 2026 that will need a pay increase to keep - Wilson, Sharman, Caminiti, Keeler and Dodson. And maybe Dow and O'Connell. - form dependant.

Steele, Marshall, Wood, Hill, and Macrae likely retire by the start of the 2027.

 

[The_Steadier]

Suspect the Marshall deal will get reignited if the Cats drop out of the Curnow chase, because right now they look to be a fair way behind Sydney

I was surprised to hear mackie apparently said yesterday that marshall is their negotiations priority (over curnow).

That to me sounds like the cats themselves think they are not a real shot at curnow (ie their rubbish offer for him is pretty close to their best and final).

The cats are desperate for marshall, just trying not to appear so.


Like the giants did with jezza cameron- Port would be willing to match any RFA offer on butters to force a trade.
So I'd be surprised if they were interested in letting him go a year early.

They will be able to force a trade next year and get similar to what the cats coughed up for cameron (3 firsts with 2nd rounder back etc)

 

[maanco]

Pencil Case

I don't get it

 

[SaintJunior]

So confused are we cooking still or not ?

Which camp are people in one where we have something on the go or the camp where according to the media we have told player managers we are done ?

On the Aller saga handled poorly but correct decision. Really get the impression we were seduced by potential but when given a run at it at senior level think impression changed .

You certainly don’t over pay both financially and in assets if you have doubts .

 

[bird_man]

I’ve seen some teams smash the opposition by zigging when everyone else was zagging.

We’ve just seen it again, Brisbane couldn’t go big up forward and unsettled the best teams with a mobile set up. I’m happy to play two quality rucks which few teams will be able to match.

Grundy and Gawn didn’t work not because two rucks won’t work but because they couldn’t work together. You had two guys on big money who both want 95% game time and want to spend it in the ruck. Marshall and TDK are very similar, both play to some extent like old fashioned ruck rovers and look like they could play as keys, it’s a tactical advantage to rule the air.

I’m quite pumped at the possibilities it throws up plus it’s cover for king who must have some questions marks next to his name given his injury run.

Yes I’m a huge Dodson fan but injuries happen every year so he’ll still get some opportunity’s plus it shows him there’s a path for him at st kilda. If we ditch Marshall because we’re a club who doesn’t believe two rucks are a bonus then surely he’s looking to get out. TDK is on a massive long term contract so he’s not pushing him out anytime soon.

TDK definitely doesn't look like he can play as a key. Carlton have tried it time and again and he always struggles. He played his best footy early in the year as the only ruck.

Unsurprisingly this year his form dropped right off as soon as they brought Pittonet back into the side.

Marshall can pinch hit forward but it was different with Ryder who was also a very good forward.

Theres definitely enough evidence to suggest TDK plays his best footy and a full-time ruck.

I just think it's a big risk trying to make it work if we can get good currency for Marshall and then fill some genuine needs with it.

 

[The Slug]

 

[stavro#4]

So he didn't fail, he just didnt score high enough to pass.

He wasn’t worth the risk on the deal we offered 12 months ago.

Smaller deal. More appetite for risk.

 

[The_Steadier]

Butters for Marshall, Saints F1 in 2026 and F1 2027. Who says no?

Unfortunately- port.

So confused are we cooking still or not ?

Tony74 (impeccable itk record) inferred we were cooking something else up yesterday (hence the silence from the club in response to aleer fallout).

No-one knows what it could be, but in tony74 we trust.

 

[Saints43]

I don't get it

Sorry, the username of a footscray supporter who's certain that Butters will be playing for the dogs next. As are all dogs supporters apparently.

 

[stavro#4]

 

[Dr Spaceman]

View attachment 2453023

 

[SinCitySainter]

Salary Cap Estimate

I've estimated the Saints’ salary cap position, based on based on reported contract values and AFL cap accounting assumptions.
It looks very healthy heading into 2026 and primed for a 2026 Free Agent.

2025: AFL salary cap was $17.78m. St Kilda reportedly spent only 83% (~$14.76m).

2025: Unused cap space carried forward – around $3.9m likely front-loaded into existing 2025 contracts.

2026: AFL salary cap $18.29m.

2026: Estimated raw player spend (based on reported contracts and estimates) – $19.64m.

2026: Adjusted cap spend (after front-loading using 2025 savings) – $15.73m, or 85.9% of the cap.

2026: Remaining capacity to front-load – approximately $1.65m in existing 2026 contracts.

2027 salary cap $18.44m.

2027: Estimated spend $17.99m – around 97.6% of the cap, a strong and sustainable position.

Summary:
This is a conservative estimate as it assumes our salary spend is $19.64M on average in both 2026 and 2027, but it suggests St Kilda are about $2.5–3 million under the 2026 AFL cap after front-loading adjustments. The club has strong flexibility, with the ability to spend 105% in both 2027 and 2028 and the ability to front-load further without breaching cap limits.

Further allowance for salary increases for up and coming players salary appears to be allowed for given some senior player contracts tapering off and retirements are likely.

It appears to be very well-managed, and will allow St Kilda to be competitive in free agency in 2026.

Go Saints.

It is a nice look at how the salary cap is structured but I don't think it is correct.

Firstly, I agree we spent 14.76 but supposedly we front-ended contracts to bring us up to 95% of the cap. That is front-ending 2.14. However, that was front-ending contracts that run 2026 and 2027 as that is when the bulk of players come off contract. Therefore the savings need to be spread over two years not applied to just one, which is 1.1 m saving a year.

Now, so far we have desisted 1.2 m approximately of salary a year. However, we have had to uplift a number of salaries including NAS. So I would suggest conservatively that is an uplift of 2.7 m to NAS, Windy, Wilkie, Hall and Pou. Add to that the 3.9m for TDK, Flanders, JSOS, and Ryan and all of a sudden our salary cap is stretched to its limits. If my figures are close we will be paying 104% of the salary cap for the next 2 years.

If we had recruited Aleer we would have had to cave to Geelong's offer to remain under the max cap.

 

[Fehring]

He didn’t necessarily fail the medical. We weren’t comfortable on it with the deal offered.

We know the player and have his medical. If a deal for Marshall happens. It makes sense if it’s cheap

I'm not sure the wording the Saints used but that was certainly the vibe of the media release at the time and I remember thinking that he'd be livid that they said that publicly. So I'm very surprised he's still interested in coming. I guess he wasn't that upset.

 

[Marlo]

I agree 100%. Aleer was surplus to needs and the costs were too high - but I really don’t like leading a player on this far into trade period. Saints should have cut the cord the day they knew they were getting silvangi.

Other players may take note of what the Saints have done and may think twice about nominating them.

If those other players are spuds looking to be paid twice what they're worth, I'm ok with that..

Aleer isn't a starting 18 player in a contending team. He knows it, the footy world knows it

I'd be stoked if I was Nas or even Flanders that the deal didn't go through for Aleer

 

[Tommy Wigs]

Butters for Marshall, Saints F1 in 2026 and F1 2027. Who says no?

First thing Port says, if we are nominated, is “Nasiah”.

 

[Minga]

Soldo is not something you go to ground on in trade period lol

It is if he relates to Marshall leaving, he’s the element that they’d be scrutinising

 

[Tommy Wigs]

It's more likely to be Soldo than Butters, you guys need to chill

Durdin already trying to get out. F1, make it happen SOS.