Analysis 2025 Draft watch

[Aphrodite]

 

[Blue_Fusion]

Look at it this way, we're not going to be challenging for at least another 3 years anyway.

If we have another first rounder after matching for Dean, then if one of Dovaston or Lindsay are available, we need to take one of them.

We have a plethora of average small forwards and Dovaston would be a huge upgrade imo. Lindsay otoh, doesn't miss targets by foot... something we've lacked for years and you usually can't go wrong drafting a player that can kick.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Look at it this way, we're not going to be challenging for at least another 3 years anyway.

If we have another first rounder after matching for Dean, then if one of Dovaston or Lindsay are available, we need to take one of them.

We have a plethora of average small forwards and Dovaston would be a huge upgrade imo. Lindsay otoh, doesn't miss targets by foot... something we've lacked for years and you usually can't go wrong drafting a player that can kick.

I'm not as big on Dovaston but completely agree with the sentiment.

Lindsay would waltz into our team and instantly be our best user of the footy.

I like Noah Hibbins-Hargreaves and Pickett ahead of Dovaston this year but would still prefer to save our draft capital and try and get a higher end small forward talent next year if I'm targeting that position.

 

[lukep_86]

Not sure if it's been posted but this phantom draft has a bid coming for Dean at 7, Barker at 19 with our residual points, then Ison at 24 which we'd need to trade up for.

Also mentions Dovaston and Lindsey.

https://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_...s-form-guide-willem-duursma-jasper-chellappah

Lots to play out and obviously very dependent on when the bid for Dean comes.

 

[Blue_Fusion]

I'm not as big on Dovaston but completely agree with the sentiment.

Lindsay would waltz into our team and instantly be our best user of the footy.

I like Noah Hibbins-Hargreaves and Pickett ahead of Dovaston this year but would still prefer to save our draft capital and try and get a higher end small forward talent next year if I'm targeting that position.

Little Neo

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Little Neo

Still hoping Prasad gets removed from the Dees NGA with the rule changes. He's a freak.

 

[Blue_Fusion]

Not sure if it's been posted but this phantom draft has a bid coming for Dean at 7, Barker at 19 with our residual points, then Ison at 24 which we'd need to trade up for.

Also mentions Dovaston and Lindsey.

https://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_...s-form-guide-willem-duursma-jasper-chellappah

Lots to play out and obviously very dependent on when the bid for Dean comes.

Yeah that's Knightmare's phantom. I don't agree with him.

Ess aren't going to bid on Dean with their first pick. I can't see any club with consecutive picks willing to do that.

Barker is a good prospect, but he'll miss half the season and with Smith already coming off an ACL, not sure we'd want to take him.

I'd also be quite surprised if Ison is bid on before NHH is drafted...

 

[Blue_Fusion]

Still hoping Prasad gets removed from the Dees NGA with the rule changes. He's a freak.

Can't see them removing him.

Neo is the better player anyway imo.

 

[JJBagger]

And what happens when Walsh doesn't sign on, or Cerra's soft tissues continue to hold him back, or we finish top 8 and miss out on Cody because the AFL torch the rules, or Jagga doesn't kick on like we'd hope. 12 months ago you'd have laughed if I told you all of Curnow, De Koning, Silvagni and Hollands would be playing footy elsewhere in 2026.

I don't believe our list has enough talent on it to be passing on top kids for lesser types who may fill a percieved need in 100 games time. That hasn't been the philosophy of clubs who consistently do better than us year after year either. They address list balance issues by recruiting ready to go players to stay competitive. We thought we didn't need Kennedy and then a club with a far better midfield gave him a career best year. Can never have enough talent.

Said club also finished with a worse ladder position than in 2024

 

[Jimmae]

Not sure if it's been posted but this phantom draft has a bid coming for Dean at 7, Barker at 19 with our residual points, then Ison at 24 which we'd need to trade up for.

Also mentions Dovaston and Lindsey.

https://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_...s-form-guide-willem-duursma-jasper-chellappah

Lots to play out and obviously very dependent on when the bid for Dean comes.

Apparently some aren't aware but Knightmare's name is Chris Doerre and he hasn't done the ESPN Phantom since 2022.

This is year 3 for Jasper Chellappah but he's seemingly getting as little usable mail as everyone else. AFL journalism is rightfully contracting, but in the most disappointing way for draft watchers.

 

[FitzroyBlueBagger]

Assuming everything that could go wrong will go wrong is not a viable list management strategy.

Let’s not set up our future through the draft because it takes 2/3 years or it’s not a 100% guaranteed hit!

I believe that you set up your club with a good balanced mix of draft trade FA’s, preferably a good proportion of the list is drafted…

We all have understood that our list has been incredibly unbalanced, lacking in modern types of mobile players of required skill in multiple positions of need, along with a shortage of KKP’s at each end developing over the past 6 years…

Broken record i know, seems like some of the adjustments have been put in place across the past few seasons…

 

[FitzroyBlueBagger]

The point I’m making is it’s not viable trying to predict anything. Assuming everything will go perfectly is equally ridiculous. 18 year olds are nowhere near the finished product and with player movement more accessible than ever lists (and its needs) change faster than those players can develop. A change in coach can change a lists needs. Tactical and strategical trends can change a lists needs. If you continually wait 3-4 years to fill those needs (and that’s if you nail those picks) you will be left behind.

So let’s not draft any players because they take a few years to develop, because they are nowhere near the finished product?
All clubs draft players for the future, for all types of needs, different position types who impact in a variety of ways…
Draft and trade, FA’s get the right mix balance, most clubs will have different mixtures depending on positional and list strengths and needs…

 

[Michael Jezz]

If Dean is bid in the top 5, are we better not matching and keeping 9 & 11. Are the 2 players we would draft be a better combination than Dean?

 

[Blue_Fusion]

If Dean is bid in the top 5, are we better not matching and keeping 9 & 11. Are the 2 players we would draft be a better combination than Dean?

Can't see us not matching unless it's like pick 2 bid...

We'll match it if it's pick 5... even though this is highly unlikely to happen.

But if it did:

Pick 5 = 1616 points required.

Assuming Uwland and Patterson are bid on before hand, our picks go to 11 + 13 = 1205 + 1080 = 2285

2285 - 1616 = 669 = pick 23 back to us.

So we'd get Dean + pick 23 unless I've stuffed something up...

I'd then argue that Dean + whoever we take with 23 will be better for us long term vs taking two players with 12 + 14 (Annable bid will push our picks back 1 more spot).

 

[DZ4]

So let’s not draft any players because they take a few years to develop, because they are nowhere near the finished product?
All clubs draft players for the future, for all types of needs, different position types who impact in a variety of ways…
Draft and trade, FA’s get the right mix balance, most clubs will have different mixtures depending on positional and list strengths and needs…

Drafting players is the best and cheapest way to get talent into your club. But it’s not the way to fill immediate needs.

 

[DZ4]

Is it that we decided to draft them or that we decided to draft crap ones?

Kozi Pickett in his 2nd season kicked 40 goals and was a huge part in the Dees winning a flag along with Jackson who was also in his 2nd year.

Lohmann in his 3rd season was close to BOG in the grand final and kicked 36.

Logan Morris 2nd season 53 goals, pretty much replaced Daniher on his own.

Meanwhile for us, Motlop is hopeless, Moir has a bucket load of talent but his fitness was miles off the pace when he was drafted so was always going to take time (mentioned when he was drafted too) and Durdin was unfortunately plagued by his shoulder injuries after a promising start to his career. No idea why you've put Fantasia in there?

Either way, there's been plenty of other examples lately. Kids nowadays are coming in ready to impact early if they're given the chance to.

There’s been more examples but not plenty of examples. Players still take time. Austin’s drafting has been fine considering the picks he has been working with, which is why I think they’ve kept him, but his trading has been quite poor and that’s why the list has regressed.

Even if the timeline of a draftee to have an impact was a generous three years, it is not quick enough to keep up with the ever changing needs of an AFL list.

Funnily enough we probably picked Moir over Morris because we thought we were stacked for KPP and didn’t see it as an issue on the list. 24 months later we lose Curnow, TDK and Silvagni from the best 22 + their next in line Lemmey who wasn’t good enough, and we replace them with Hayward and Ainsworth who are ready to go in Moir’s exact position.

But how good is needs based drafting hey?

 

[JustaBattler]

Would you have taken Lukosius in 2018?

Lets get real - the only decent picks Carlton have made in the draft from the time SOS arrived were wooden spoon picks in Weiteting and Walsh who picked themselves - Curnow and McKay and maybe just maybe Ollie Hollands. Ironically silvagni jnr has probably been the outstanding pick of the era at #57 - and TDK on a slow burn kicked into gear 2 years ago as an interesting ruck - 3 of them gone now. I do think HOF will be a good player and also HOK - neither were top10 picks one a hail mary.

You only have to look at the list to see how horrendous VCarlton use of top10 picks has been - and that is after the Rogers Hughes era of absolute disaster.

I'm not a buyer of Carlton cant develop players - young kids develop better in strong lists and Carlton's lack of depth across every line has been a massive negative to development.

Weitering has been playing a lone hand back there with no 2nd tall defender and we are now going to cough up 2 first rounders to get Dean who is more a third tall in height. Last year we brought in Camporeles- neither of who can kick the ball yet - but father /sons - yee haaa.

Play the kids play the kids.
Sack the coach


Makes me laugh really.

 

[ferrisb]

Assuming everything that could go wrong will go wrong is not a viable list management strategy.

Might have actually worked for Carlton over the last 15 years

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Lets get real - the only decent picks Carlton have made in the draft from the time SOS arrived were wooden spoon picks in Weiteting and Walsh who picked themselves - Curnow and McKay and maybe just maybe Ollie Hollands. Ironically silvagni jnr has probably been the outstanding pick of the era at #57 - and TDK on a slow burn kicked into gear 2 years ago as an interesting ruck - 3 of them gone now. I do think HOF will be a good player and also HOK - neither were top10 picks one a hail mary.

You only have to look at the list to see how horrendous VCarlton use of top10 picks has been - and that is after the Rogers Hughes era of absolute disaster.

I'm not a buyer of Carlton cant develop players - young kids develop better in strong lists and Carlton's lack of depth across every line has been a massive negative to development.

Weitering has been playing a lone hand back there with no 2nd tall defender and we are now going to cough up 2 first rounders to get Dean who is more a third tall in height. Last year we brought in Camporeles- neither of who can kick the ball yet - but father /sons - yee haaa.

Play the kids play the kids.
Sack the coach


Makes me laugh really.

This is all just absurdly hyperbolic and negative.

The only decent picks Carltons made are McKay, Curnow, Weitering and Walsh? We just had 3 rising star nominations in 2025 (should have been 4 with HOF) and the lowest any of them were taken in the draft was pick 30.

We're about to pay 2 first rounders for Dean who's more 3rd tall height? According to who? Where are you getting 2 first rounders from?

Absolute nonsense honestly.

 

[JJBagger]

Lets get real - the only decent picks Carlton have made in the draft from the time SOS arrived were wooden spoon picks in Weiteting and Walsh who picked themselves - Curnow and McKay and maybe just maybe Ollie Hollands. Ironically silvagni jnr has probably been the outstanding pick of the era at #57 - and TDK on a slow burn kicked into gear 2 years ago as an interesting ruck - 3 of them gone now. I do think HOF will be a good player and also HOK - neither were top10 picks one a hail mary.

You only have to look at the list to see how horrendous VCarlton use of top10 picks has been - and that is after the Rogers Hughes era of absolute disaster.

I'm not a buyer of Carlton cant develop players - young kids develop better in strong lists and Carlton's lack of depth across every line has been a massive negative to development.

Weitering has been playing a lone hand back there with no 2nd tall defender and we are now going to cough up 2 first rounders to get Dean who is more a third tall in height. Last year we brought in Camporeles- neither of who can kick the ball yet - but father /sons - yee haaa.

Play the kids play the kids.
Sack the coach


Makes me laugh really.

Jeez the hyperbole here is astonishing. 2 first rounders for Dean? you realise you only have to match points, and you get picks back for any unused points?

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

There’s been more examples but not plenty of examples. Players still take time. Austin’s drafting has been fine considering the picks he has been working with, which is why I think they’ve kept him, but his trading has been quite poor and that’s why the list has regressed.

Even if the timeline of a draftee to have an impact was a generous three years, it is not quick enough to keep up with the ever changing needs of an AFL list.

Funnily enough we probably picked Moir over Morris because we thought we were stacked for KPP and didn’t see it as an issue on the list. 24 months later we lose Curnow, TDK and Silvagni from the best 22 + their next in line Lemmey who wasn’t good enough, and we replace them with Hayward and Ainsworth who are ready to go in Moir’s exact position.

But how good is needs based drafting hey?

Yep, needs based drafting.

Brisbane needed a Daniher replacement as they knew he was finishing up + McStay had left the year before so selected Morris and Gallop. Morris basically carried their forward line this year and Gallop came in and had a huge finals series.

They needed some more run and carry from their back half with an aging rebounding group so selected Wilmot and picked up Fletcher as a F/S, combined with Zorko formed just about the best half back line in the league.

They needed to add depth to their small forward group with an aging Cameron and McCarthy so picked up Lohmann and McLachlan (who's been fantastic at VFL level and likely breaks into the team this in 2026 or next)

They needed midfield depth to replace an aging Lyon and Neale but knew they had two rolled gold midfield F/S on the way so simply banked points for them too.

And as a result, Brisbane have probably set themselves up for another decade of dominance.

One distinction is that they did add some quality free agents in that time like Daniher, Doedee, Gunston and now Allen and Draper but really the only significant trade they've done since 2019 has been Dunkley. The rest has been fantastic drafting and even better salary cap management.

 

[marcmurphy3]

If Dean is bid in the top 5, are we better not matching and keeping 9 & 11. Are the 2 players we would draft be a better combination than Dean?

You're talking like Dean costs us 9&11 with no change. By matching Dean even in the top 5, we still get something else decent. Either an F1, a later first rounder, and/or more points for Ison.

So its more like Dean + F1/late1st + extra points for Ison or 9 &11. Id take the first option every time.

 

[Michael Jezz]

You're talking like Dean costs us 9&11 with no change. By matching Dean even in the top 5, we still get something else decent. Either an F1, a later first rounder, and/or more points for Ison.

So its more like Dean + F1/late1st + extra points for Ison or 9 &11. Id take the first option every time.

I am not talking anything. I am asking is Dean & pick 25-30 better than who we project to take at 9 & 11.
I see no post with a list of who we would pick at say 12 and 15 and miss out on Dean in the top 5

 

[AT97]

Not sure if it's been posted but this phantom draft has a bid coming for Dean at 7, Barker at 19 with our residual points, then Ison at 24 which we'd need to trade up for.

Also mentions Dovaston and Lindsey.

https://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_...s-form-guide-willem-duursma-jasper-chellappah

Lots to play out and obviously very dependent on when the bid for Dean comes.

At least it’s something different to the stock standard, doveston at wherever our second pick lands… amazing how he always seems to be available at our second pick.

 

[Jimmae]

If Dean is bid in the top 5, are we better not matching and keeping 9 & 11. Are the 2 players we would draft be a better combination than Dean?

Well if you go for the doomsday scenario on here of pick 5 bid after 3 prior bids and then an Ison bid of pick 25, you likely land with the pair costing 9 & 11 exactly due to how the draft order moves around.

The alternative would likely be picking with what would become 12 and 15, so two prospects along the lines of Hibbens-Hargreaves, Cumming, Greeves, Grjl*, Marsh.

That alone shows you that the bid estimates are ridiculous.

 

[BlueTongue]

Apparently some aren't aware but Knightmare's name is Chris Doerre and he hasn't done the ESPN Phantom since 2022.

This is year 3 for Jasper Chellappah but he's seemingly getting as little usable mail as everyone else. AFL journalism is rightfully contracting, but in the most disappointing way for draft watchers.

Why would anyone listen to anyone else but Twomey. He may not nail the later picks but he pretty much nails the top 10 every year. His job is literally that.