Analysis 2025 Draft watch

[Aphrodite]

 

[Blue_Fusion]

In the highly unlikely event that a club didn't match, I reckon Westcoast would be pretty happy with any of those guys at 2.

Don't know about that re Dean... they need mids badly. Duursma isn't exactly one either.

 

[JuddgementDay]

A player match may not occur. It can happen - exhibit A, with Merrett during the trade period - the trade simply didn't happen, even though Merrett was & Hawks were committed

 

[gandaal]

That would be risky - or are these nominated clubs too far committed to not match the bid?

Too far committed. Plus I don't think its that risky. Every one of those players deserves to be picked at those selections. If the bid isn't matched I think West Coast would be pretty happy.

 

[gandaal]

Any team that is going to play that game, at some point in the future is going to comeback to them the other way.

l doubt West Coast will take this path, in fact l see them doing a deal with Essendon for Cooper Duff Tyler giving up their 2nd pick.

Maybe if it was a massive reach. None of those picks are a reach.

 

[marcmurphy3]

Don't know about that re Dean... they need mids badly. Duursma isn't exactly one either.

I dont think they bid on Dean but they need just about everything lol.

 

[Blue_Fusion]

I dont think they bid on Dean but they need just about everything lol.

Yeah I really doubt they will too.

Sure they need everything, but if they try to play games and end up with a utility and a KPD with their 1st two picks they'll get mauled.

I think there's a slight chance Ess bid on Dean with their second pick, but my opinion is, it'll be Melbourne with their second pick (likely pick 11).

 

[macky99]

Maybe if it was a massive reach. None of those picks are a reach.

Agree but l think Essendon are apparently very keen on Cooper Duff Tyler so l expect Essendon to give up 5 & 6 for West Coast 2 with something coming back to Essendon.

 

[marcmurphy3]

Agree but l think Essendon are apparently very keen on Cooper Duff Tyler so l expect Essendon to give up 5 & 6 for West Coast 2 with something coming back to Essendon.

5&6 for 2&13 could work but really depends how the clubs rate the respective players in those ranges.

 

[TerryWallet]

I had some time to kill this arvo, so attempted to do a mock Top 20. But it was impossible lol. With 2 years of future picks available, the first 4 clubs all having back to back picks, the 3 top end academy picks and F/S Dean, certain clubs desperate for certain players ie EFC-DuffTytler, Melb-Robey, Adel-one of their top kids.....and more.

Anything can and will happen in the first round. Not much usually happens up the pointy end, but my tip is plenty will this year. Will be an interesting buildup and a more interesting first round than normal.

 

[TerryWallet]

5&6 for 2&13 could work but really depends how the clubs rate the respective players in those ranges.

EFC are usually loathe to give up futures, or they were when under Dodoro at least. And next year could be a precarious one for them.

But i reckon they will swap 5&F1(2026) for 2&13 with WC. They will be in love with Duff-Tytler with him being a star who happens to be a PEGS kid and also already doing some time at the EFC cult.

Apparently WC would prefer the 5&F1 than 5&6. I think they'd be very happy with Dursmaa and Sharp at 5.

 

[Blue__Balls]

This might sound crazy, but I'm not worried about his contested game whatsoever. When I watch him, I don't see a complete liability ala Lochie O'Brien (sorry soap), he just looks like a stock standard underager that is an outside specialist.

He's a flanker that provides elite kicking and decision making. Why are we expecting him to be a contested beast? This is the same thinking that led us to having the slowest and beefiest small forward group of all time lol.

IMO, if he is available when our pick comes around, we should be sprinting to the podium. I can't remember us ever drafting someone who was considered an elite kick. Let's do it for once.

I don't think it's about needing to be a contested beast. But to use that incredible boot, he needs to get the ball and ideally get it in a situation where he's got time. That's going to require at least one of the following:

• elite endurance, to outwork his opponent and gain separation as a result,
• decent contested game, to be able to beat his opponent in a one-on-one,
• elite game sense/read, to be able to assess when and how to leave his opponent at a time they're otherwise occupied, and/or
• better-than-average speed, to gain immediate separation from his opponent.

I've listed those from least useful to most. Endurance is great, but it's a cumulative gain and opponents can be rotated to mitigate it. Contested ability is always useful, but it's still a contest which is less certain than an uncontested possession. Game sense goes a hell of a long way, and some unremarkable players have built impressive careers on it (ie. Sidebottom). But not much beats raw speed for getting away from your opponent so you can take an easy mark.

From what I've seen of Lindsay, his endurance is average (not in the bad sense, just not a point of difference), his contested ability is below average, and his speed is a bit below average too.

I think that means he's going to need to demonstrate incredible game sense to be able to accumulate any meaningful ball. He's gonna get sat on the minute he starts showing signs of carving up zones, so the big question will be, when an opponent is tasked with shutting him down....how will he overcome it.

 

[Psychochook]

If I was West Coast I'd be picking like this:
1) Duursma
2) Uwland bid
3) Patterson bid
4) Annable bid
5) Dean bid
6) Robey

Who knows what it could free up with a later pick? It would certainly wipe out Gold Coast and Carlton from the draft.

....and we already have that healthy disdain for them.
Zero love lost.

Here's the kicker for the AFL though.
Fan hostilities will rise on game day if dog acts like these were the norm.

The collective bagger hatred for the eagles would grow for sure.

Optus would be brooding, teetering on the edge of a riot.

Sensationalism aside. It is a possibility.

The fans from Gold Coast and Brisbane would also be filthy.
Fun times.

 

[DZ4]

The simple comment 'Unless they're a slow inside mid' proves the mantra doesn't hold up.

You draft the best talent that fits a need. Selecting players based purely on talent is idiotic in today's game where balance across the list is more important than ever.

Why couldn't we use a gun inside mid? We are devoid of talent across the park. Yes Walsh, Smith, Walker, Cerra, Hollands and Lord looks a great group but they are hardly Cripps or Hewett and only Walsh has shown he can be truly elite at the level. Walker isn't even on our list yet and Jagga hasn't played a game.

The best clubs identify needs and recruit them ready to go. Personally I'd argue it's idiotic to even try and predict what we might need in 3-4 years time (which is the realistic time frame for any kid not named Daicos or Ashcroft to have an impact) when player movement has never been easier. Imagine if we went out and recruited a ready to go forward pocket a few years ago instead of loading up on kids hoping one would stick. We may be in a completely different position.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Why couldn't we use a gun inside mid? We are devoid of talent across the park. Yes Walsh, Smith, Walker, Cerra, Hollands and Lord looks a great group but they are hardly Cripps or Hewett and only Walsh has shown he can be truly elite at the level. Walker isn't even on our list yet and Jagga hasn't played a game.

The best clubs identify needs and recruit them ready to go. Personally I'd argue it's idiotic to even try and predict what we might need in 3-4 years time (which is the realistic time frame for any kid not named Daicos or Ashcroft to have an impact) when player movement has never been easier. Imagine if we went out and recruited a ready to go forward pocket a few years ago instead of loading up on kids hoping one would stick. We may be in a completely different position.

If you want to end up in the exact same position as we were last year with 4 slow inside mids and one outside runner in Walsh then you go for your life. I certainly won't agree with it.

Having the proper balance across the list is key, otherwise you end up giving away players like Kennedy for unders due to a lack of on ball time and trying to fit square pegs in round holes.

Our list does not currently need additional inside mids and won't for a long time based on what we've seen from our youngsters.

 

[DZ4]

If you want to end up in the exact same position as we were last year with 4 slow inside mids and one outside runner in Walsh then you go for your life. I certainly won't agree with it.

Having the proper balance across the list is key, otherwise you end up giving away players like Kennedy for unders due to a lack of on ball time and trying to fit square pegs in round holes.

Our list does not currently need additional inside mids and won't for a long time based on what we've seen from our youngsters.

And what happens when Walsh doesn't sign on, or Cerra's soft tissues continue to hold him back, or we finish top 8 and miss out on Cody because the AFL torch the rules, or Jagga doesn't kick on like we'd hope. 12 months ago you'd have laughed if I told you all of Curnow, De Koning, Silvagni and Hollands would be playing footy elsewhere in 2026.

I don't believe our list has enough talent on it to be passing on top kids for lesser types who may fill a percieved need in 100 games time. That hasn't been the philosophy of clubs who consistently do better than us year after year either. They address list balance issues by recruiting ready to go players to stay competitive. We thought we didn't need Kennedy and then a club with a far better midfield gave him a career best year. Can never have enough talent.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

And what happens when Walsh doesn't sign on, or Cerra's soft tissues continue to hold him back, or we finish top 8 and miss out on Cody because the AFL torch the rules, or Jagga doesn't kick on like we'd hope. 12 months ago you'd have laughed if I told you all of Curnow, De Koning, Silvagni and Hollands would be playing footy elsewhere in 2026.

I don't believe our list has enough talent on it to be passing on top kids for lesser types who may fill a percieved need in 100 games time. That hasn't been the philosophy of clubs who consistently do better than us year after year either. They address list balance issues by recruiting ready to go players to stay competitive. We thought we didn't need Kennedy and then a club with a far better midfield gave him a career best year. Can never have enough talent.

Assuming everything that could go wrong will go wrong is not a viable list management strategy.

 

[JustaBattler]

Draftees are coming into the AFL more prepared than ever before and impacting from early on more and more frequently. It's no longer just Walsh and Daicos types we're seeing succeed early days. Some of the best players in the AFL are ages 20-23 and impacting from their 2nd and 3rd seasons rather than taking the 6-7 they used to. Daicos, Sheezel, NWM, Callaghan etc.

Even just looking at Brisbane this year

Ashcroft x 2 (top rated picks similar to Walsh and Daicos as juniors)
Fletcher
Morris
Lohmann
Wilmot
Gallop

All under the age of 22 and a huge part of why they're able to hold onto all their elite talent. Some of these kids are producing performances better than many senior AFL players while being on their base contracts from when they were drafted.

Drafting the best talent and 'crossing your fingers' is an outdated philosophy. Draft the best talent that fills a need and if it isn't at the pick you hold... Either trade up, down or into the next draft, where you're confident a talent that does fill a need will be there for you.

If we select Dyson Sharp or Ollie Greeves because they're the best available talent at our pick despite being completely stacked for slow inside mids I'll just about puke.

so - you are agreeing with me that even the best take 2-3 years to impact- which is why if you really really have a need- you trade for a developed player

the draft is for the future not the present the future being 2-3 years out.....

Look back at the type of injuries some our star players have copped early days..Murph lasted a few games before Brisbane smashed his shoulder ...TDK and Harry had stress fractures in the back,,,Curnow and knees..SPS finished his hamstrings off in a season....(I'm leaving aside the bad luck Smith last year and HOF after a couple of games) - some genuine super stars before draft do an early inujury and never recover properly and never make it - eg Pickett for us recovered from a navicular break at GWS dofr 2 yesrs comes on as steak knives- looks absolutely fantastic and breaks down with massive knee explosion after half a season...I could go on...

 

[DZ4]

Assuming everything that could go wrong will go wrong is not a viable list management strategy.

The point I’m making is it’s not viable trying to predict anything. Assuming everything will go perfectly is equally ridiculous. 18 year olds are nowhere near the finished product and with player movement more accessible than ever lists (and its needs) change faster than those players can develop. A change in coach can change a lists needs. Tactical and strategical trends can change a lists needs. If you continually wait 3-4 years to fill those needs (and that’s if you nail those picks) you will be left behind.

 

[DZ4]

so - you are agreeing with me that even the best take 2-3 years to impact- which is why if you really really have a need- you trade for a developed player

the draft is for the future not the present the future being 2-3 years out.....

Look back at the type of injuries some our star players have copped early days..Murph lasted a few games before Brisbane smashed his shoulder ...TDK and Harry had stress fractures in the back,,,Curnow and knees..SPS finished his hamstrings off in a season....(I'm leaving aside the bad luck Smith last year and HOF after a couple of games) - some genuine super stars before draft do an early inujury and never recover properly and never make it - eg Pickett for us recovered from a navicular break at GWS dofr 2 yesrs comes on as steak knives- looks absolutely fantastic and breaks down with massive knee explosion after half a season...I could go on...

Look at the Swans. Identified Charlie as a massive need and executed. Will shoot straight back into flag contention.

We have picked up a few very good half forward flankers in return. It’s a pity it has come 4 years too late because we decided to draft for those needs instead (Durdin, Motlop, Fantasia, Moir).

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

so - you are agreeing with me that even the best take 2-3 years to impact- which is why if you really really have a need- you trade for a developed player

the draft is for the future not the present the future being 2-3 years out.....

Look back at the type of injuries some our star players have copped early days..Murph lasted a few games before Brisbane smashed his shoulder ...TDK and Harry had stress fractures in the back,,,Curnow and knees..SPS finished his hamstrings off in a season....(I'm leaving aside the bad luck Smith last year and HOF after a couple of games) - some genuine super stars before draft do an early inujury and never recover properly and never make it - eg Pickett for us recovered from a navicular break at GWS dofr 2 yesrs comes on as steak knives- looks absolutely fantastic and breaks down with massive knee explosion after half a season...I could go on...

No, the absolutely best draftees are impacting from year 1. The good draftees are impacting from years 2-3 nowadays rather than the 6-7 they used to. Professionalism in the under 18s pathways is at an all time high amongst juniors and thus they're able to come in and play a role early days.

Also I'm really not sure what these examples are meant to relate to? They're all vastly different situations so don't really make any sense together?

TDK and Harry were held back in the VFL to build up their bodies after some early injury issues before ever being exposed to the level, if anything we took an ultra cautious approach with both of them. But stress related issues are extremely common in young KPPs, same as fast bowlers in cricket.

Curnow and knees early days? He was drafted with knee issues and took a freak side on hit to his knee in his 4th season which kept him out for a bit, then dislocated it playing basketball trying to dunk on our captain, slipped on a wet tile etc. His durability before that was fantastic.

Pickett looked great early, hurt his knee and went off and gained about 15kgs at KFC which was the reason he got delisted. He did the same just about every time he got injured for any extended period of time. Really never showed up in elite condition across his entire career.

 

[ctwenty1]

EFC are usually loathe to give up futures, or they were when under Dodoro at least. And next year could be a precarious one for them.

But i reckon they will swap 5&F1(2026) for 2&13 with WC. They will be in love with Duff-Tytler with him being a star who happens to be a PEGS kid and also already doing some time at the EFC cult.

Apparently WC would prefer the 5&F1 than 5&6. I think they'd be very happy with Dursmaa and Sharp at 5.

Wow if ESS do that trade

WCE would end up with picks 1 2 and 3 next year- picks 1 and 2 will be WCE and ESS in whatever order, and pick 3 will be another compo pick.

AFL better not make it harder to match bids If they are giving out picks Willy Billy

 

[DollarsandSense]

hard to believe there are ten better kids than this one.... looks a gem.

Yes please. Bring him to me!!!

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Look at the Swans. Identified Charlie as a massive need and executed. Will shoot straight back into flag contention.

We have picked up a few very good half forward flankers in return. It’s a pity it has come 4 years too late because we decided to draft for those needs instead (Durdin, Motlop, Fantasia, Moir).

Is it that we decided to draft them or that we decided to draft crap ones?

Kozi Pickett in his 2nd season kicked 40 goals and was a huge part in the Dees winning a flag along with Jackson who was also in his 2nd year.

Lohmann in his 3rd season was close to BOG in the grand final and kicked 36.

Logan Morris 2nd season 53 goals, pretty much replaced Daniher on his own.

Meanwhile for us, Motlop is hopeless, Moir has a bucket load of talent but his fitness was miles off the pace when he was drafted so was always going to take time (mentioned when he was drafted too) and Durdin was unfortunately plagued by his shoulder injuries after a promising start to his career. No idea why you've put Fantasia in there?

Either way, there's been plenty of other examples lately. Kids nowadays are coming in ready to impact early if they're given the chance to.

 

[katmanblue]

Is it that we decided to draft them or that we decided to draft crap ones?

Kozi Pickett in his 2nd season kicked 40 goals and was a huge part in the Dees winning a flag along with Jackson who was also in his 2nd year.

Lohmann in his 3rd season was close to BOG in the grand final and kicked 36.

Logan Morris 2nd season 53 goals, pretty much replaced Daniher on his own.

Meanwhile for us, Motlop is hopeless, Moir has a bucket load of talent but his fitness was miles off the pace when he was drafted so was always going to take time (mentioned when he was drafted too) and Durdin was unfortunately plagued by his shoulder injuries after a promising start to his career. No idea why you've put Fantasia in there?

Either way, there's been plenty of other examples lately. Kids nowadays are coming in ready to impact early if they're given the chance to.

Where was each drafted?

 

[Blue_Fusion]

so - you are agreeing with me that even the best take 2-3 years to impact- which is why if you really really have a need- you trade for a developed player

the draft is for the future not the present the future being 2-3 years out.....

Look back at the type of injuries some our star players have copped early days..Murph lasted a few games before Brisbane smashed his shoulder ...TDK and Harry had stress fractures in the back,,,Curnow and knees..SPS finished his hamstrings off in a season....(I'm leaving aside the bad luck Smith last year and HOF after a couple of games) - some genuine super stars before draft do an early inujury and never recover properly and never make it - eg Pickett for us recovered from a navicular break at GWS dofr 2 yesrs comes on as steak knives- looks absolutely fantastic and breaks down with massive knee explosion after half a season...I could go on...

Would you have taken Lukosius in 2018?