Preview 2025 AFL Draft General Discussion

[Ura]

Yeah 100% give him 5 years to show what he has
My point was Schubert which is still only 17 until Xmas and expected to be a top 10 selection should also be given the same and to believe Mattlock to be better after basically a nothing year is a bit far fetched

At what point did someone say one was better then the other? All I said is Schubert isn’t miles ahead and they play a different role. You seem to be arguing something else I think… I’m not sure what.
It’s way too early to tell about either. KPP in the first round bust at much higher rates than midfielders. This is because they are hard to project.
How do you project Schubert? What do you like about his game? Why do you rate him higher then the other KPF this draft? Which game should we watch to see his best?

 

[Westlo]

Clearly North don't need players like X Taylor and Robey, but say Melbourne trade pick 6 and their 2026 first to Richmond you've given up what ends up as 2 top 6 picks for 2 second rounders.

And you can't cope with the 2026 draft being shit.

 

[Jen2310]

 

[Giant Strides]

That's only the first 8 picks, down to Melbourne's two selections, plus bids. Interesting to see Jacob Farrow in that group.

 

[Keystone agony]

That's only the first 8 picks, down to Melbourne's two selections, plus bids. Interesting to see Jacob Farrow in that group.

Twomey has talked about him inside the live 8 for a fair while now. Dees are very keen he says

 

[THE_GUN]

That's only the first 8 picks, down to Melbourne's two selections, plus bids. Interesting to see Jacob Farrow in that group.

Well if Carlton gets a bid early and cant trade out then lose #9 and #11 drifts back then that might bring Farrow into calculations as the 10th selected or maybe Melbourne have an interest

 

[dazzledavey36]

Twomey has talked about him inside the live 8 for a fair while now. Dees are very keen he says

Where has he mentioned that we are very keen on Farrow?

 

[Keystone agony]

Where has he mentioned that we are very keen on Farrow?

Listen to his last 4 podcast on gettable

Somewhere in there he has aligned Farrow in the 8 and to dees. May not have said the words 'very keen'

Thinks looking at non talls, so would be a pick between Farrow/Grlj/O.Taylor ect

 

[#BallMagnet]

Do we really think clubs will go hard and bid on these early Club tied kids if they really think they are the better player or are they just going to play nice to avoid upsetting clubs for future dealings?

 

[ItsAllAboutMe]

Do we really think clubs will go hard and bid on these early Club tied kids if they really think they are the better player or are they just going to play nice to avoid upsetting clubs for future dealings?

History suggests they won’t be bid on early but perhaps clubs are getting sick of the academies taking all the top players and will now make them pay

 

[Giant Strides]

Also, the heavier cost of matching now (lower discount, less points per picks) means that it might be possible to break a kid free. Perhaps not this year, given clubs can still go into deficit, but if there's a change to deficit banking in future (which I'd suggest seems possible even likely if AFL introduces the "2-pick maximum") then it might become more possible.

For example:

• If Eagles really wanted Dylan Patterson from the Suns academy, then bidding on Zeke Uwland at #1, then Patterson at #2 means that Suns have to pay 4933 points, while only holding 3773 points (ignoring any trades for additional points). This would give them a significant deficit (1160 points, or around pick #10 next year, where they also have another highly rated player). Given they have 3 other academy kids this year, that might give them pause to consider whether they match Patterson.

 

[4tune8]

Also, the heavier cost of matching now (lower discount, less points per picks) means that it might be possible to break a kid free. Perhaps not this year, given clubs can still go into deficit, but if there's a change to deficit banking in future (which I'd suggest seems possible even likely if AFL introduces the "2-pick maximum") then it might become more possible.

For example:

• If Eagles really wanted Dylan Patterson from the Suns academy, then bidding on Zeke Uwland at #1, then Patterson at #2 means that Suns have to pay 4933 points, while only holding 3773 points (ignoring any trades for additional points). This would give them a significant deficit (1160 points, or around pick #10 next year, where they also have another highly rated player). Given they have 3 other academy kids this year, that might give them pause to consider whether they match Patterson.

The deficit that they can go to is reliant on the picks that they hold next year which are 2 x 2nds & 2 x 3rds. The points allocated to those picks are the equivalent of end of 2nd (pick 36) and end of 3rd (pick 54) The total amount that they can go to is 667pts.

 

[4tune8]

Do we really think clubs will go hard and bid on these early Club tied kids if they really think they are the better player or are they just going to play nice to avoid upsetting clubs for future dealings?

Blair Hartley is on record as saying that the Tigers will bid on where they rate those players, so yeah, the bids will come.

 

[danielG]

Blair Hartley is on record as saying that the Tigers will bid on where they rate those players, so yeah, the bids will come.

It needs to happen.. It’s absurd that GC can bring in Patterson, Uwland and Petracca in one of season and not really lose anyone of any significance (yes, I know they lost Flanders). That shouldn’t happen and I hope clubs do all they can to ensure GC pay a fair price.. It needs to stop. It’s a blight on the game.

 

[4tune8]

It needs to happen.. It’s absurd that GC can bring in Patterson, Uwland and Petracca in one of season and not really lose any of anyone of any significance (yes, I know they lost Flanders). That shouldn’t happen and I hope clubs do all they can to ensure GC pay a fair price.. It needs to stop. It’s a blight on the game.

It's not as simple as that, just looking at this year doesn't take into account what they did last year.

They gained Port's and the Pies 1st round picks this year at the cost of Lukosious. Flanders, Fiorini, Ainsworth, Budarick and Rosas were traded this year.

They paid a fair price for Petracca with 7, 8 and an F1.

What isn't fair is the discount and that should be removed immediately.

 

[Giant Strides]

The deficit that they can go to is reliant on the picks that they hold next year which are 2 x 2nds & 2 x 3rds. The points allocated to those picks are the equivalent of end of 2nd (pick 36) and end of 3rd (pick 54) The total amount that they can go to is 667pts.

Excellent point, thanks, I was just doing the theoretical response and didn't look at their specific picks in 2026.

It reinforces why there is a greater risk of kids (either single at the very top end or multiple high picks) not being matched.

It does require clubs - in this year's case the Eagles - being bold.

Of course, the points deficit will be less than I quoted, as Suns will trade for more points, and once they match Uwland, their later picks will come in and gain some points. But if they can't get it inside that 667 points, they wouldn't be able to match.

It does really require Eagles bidding at #1 and #2; anything later would leave Suns with avenues to achieve the points.

Do I think Eagles will do that this year? No. It's just illustrating the greater risk under this year's changes, and changes to come.

 

[4tune8]

Excellent point, thanks, I was just doing the theoretical response and didn't look at their specific picks in 2026.

It reinforces why there is a greater risk of kids (either single at the very top end or multiple high picks) not being matched.

It does require clubs - in this year's case the Eagles - being bold.

Of course, the points deficit will be less than I quoted, as Suns will trade for more points, and once they match Uwland, their later picks will come in and gain some points. But if they can't get it inside that 667 points, they wouldn't be able to match.

It does really require Eagles bidding at #1 and #2; anything later would leave Suns with avenues to achieve the points.

Do I think Eagles will do that this year? No. It's just illustrating the greater risk under this year's changes, and changes to come.

Yep, a lot more difficult this year and hopefully the discount is removed next year.

Just spitballing here, if I was in the WCE list manager's shoes and I rated both Uwland and Patterson at 1 & 2 then I wouldn't have any hesitation bidding on them at those spots with the very slim chance that the GCS pass on Patterson to secure Addinsal, Murray, Coulson and Collins, in my mind that's not much different to splitting a top pick.

 

[Maybe Tomorrow]

Yep, a lot more difficult this year and hopefully the discount is removed next year.

Just spitballing here, if I was in the WCE list manager's shoes and I rated both Uwland and Patterson at 1 & 2 then I wouldn't have any hesitation bidding on them at those spots with the very slim chance that the GCS pass on Patterson to secure Addinsal, Murray, Coulson and Collins, in my mind that's not much different to splitting a top pick.

GC have been putting Uwland and Paterson in front of the media this year but none of the others.

IMO they will match both at the cost of the others later in the draft if needed.

WC won't bid a 1 because they won't get Patterson anyway. I'm sure GC are looking to do a deal for picks 15 or 18 with WC in their favour to get no bids. Probably the same with Richmond.

 

[THE_GUN]

GC have been putting Uwland and Paterson in front of the media this year but none of the others.

IMO they will match both at the cost of the others later in the draft if needed.

WC won't bid a 1 because they won't get Patterson anyway. I'm sure GC are looking to do a deal for picks 15 or 18 with WC in their favour to get no bids. Probably the same with Richmond.

Not sure what deal the GC & Richmond could do to be honest

 

[marcmurphy3]

GC have been putting Uwland and Paterson in front of the media this year but none of the others.

IMO they will match both at the cost of the others later in the draft if needed.

WC won't bid a 1 because they won't get Patterson anyway. I'm sure GC are looking to do a deal for picks 15 or 18 with WC in their favour to get no bids. Probably the same with Richmond.

I think GC will be targeting Essendon and Nortn 20s picks for more points. No deal with Westcoast or Richmond would make sense.

 

[hammer180]

It's probably in the clubs best interests to bid earlier now because the points system should move clubs back much further back. Take a bid on Dean for example at 2 by WCE if Carlton can't get a trade done for points there 2nd 1st rounder will move behind wces 2nd round pick.

 

[Maybe Tomorrow]

Not sure what deal the GC & Richmond could do to be honest

Richmond will likely hedge their bets and bid with their second pick. Then they can claim to be big boys "making GC pay" while also saying it could have been worse. Their pay off was probably the overs they got for Rioli last year.

 

[THE_GUN]

Richmond will likely hedge their bets and bid with their second pick. Then they can claim to be big boys "making GC pay" while also saying it could have been worse. Their pay off was probably the overs they got for Rioli last year.

I dont think it has anything to do with being 'Big Boys' as you say
Richmond will bid on Patterson if still on the board and also Murray but doubt they bid on any others
These 2 would be genuine bids that Richmond would like at Punt Road

But you have not answered my question about Richmond and GC doing a deal
What deal could these 2 clubs actually do ?
The only deal would be if Richmond dont bid and Murray is available the suns let him through

 

[Maybe Tomorrow]

I dont think it has anything to do with being 'Big Boys' as you say
Richmond will bid on Patterson if still on the board and also Murray but doubt they bid on any others
These 2 would be genuine bids that Richmond would like at Punt Road

But you have not answered my question about Richmond and GC doing a deal
What deal could these 2 clubs actually do ?
The only deal would be if Richmond dont bid and Murray is available the suns let him through

Maybe the deal was done last year?

GC will find a way to get the guys they want either way. If they lose Murray or Addinsall that's life. They can always get "homesick" after their rookie contracts. Man it would be good to be on the winning end of a "homesick" trade.

 

[wceeaglesfan]

Thoughts on this mock?

Trades

• WCE Trade Pick 13 + 34 for CAR 9
• GC trade pick 15 for ESS 21 + 27
• WCE trade Pick 2 for ESS 5 + 15
• ADEL trade pick 16 + F1 for CAR 11 + F3

Pick 1 WCE Willem Duursma
Pick 2 ESS Sullivan Robey
Pick 3 RIC CDT
Pick 4 RIC Sam Grlj
Pick 5 WCE Sam Cumming
Pick 6 ESS Xavier Taylor
Pick 7 MEL Dyson sharp
Pick 8 MEL Jacob Farrow
Pick 9 WCE Lachy Dovaston
Pick 10 HAW Ollie Greeves
Pick 11 ADE Oskar Taylor
Pick 12 GWS Harley Barker
Pick 13 WB Noah Hibbens
Pick 14 WCE Aidan Schubert
Pick 15 CAR Josh Linsday
Pick 16 GEE Mitch Marsh
Pick 17 FRE Jevan Phillopou
Pick 18 HAW Latrelle picket
Pick 19 NM Max Kondogiannis
Pick 20 NM Archie Ludowyke