Analysis 2025 Draft watch

[Aphrodite]

 

[Jacks Seething Rage]

Dean is one of the best prospects we've had in a long time. We should bid on wherever he falls and be happy for it.

Not just because he's a good player. But he's been with the team for the last month. He's got the gear, he's got a locker. He spent weeks with the team earlier this season. He's got an enormous head start on almost every other first year player. Ison is a similar story.

It's an enormous piece of luck that's just fallen into our laps and we should be happy for it. If we can pick up another guy then that's just icing on the cake.

He's also an incredibly high floor draftee in a year where even the highest rated come with question marks.

The biggest concern with Dean is hoping that a kid who turns 18 today (Happy Birthday Harry!) has another cm or two to grow.

 

[macky99]

Anybody who thinks Sullivan Robey is a great get should watch this:



Terrible is an understatement. Makes all the wrong calls, terrible disposal. Weak efforts. Maybe its one of his worst games but damn...

l would not be taking too much notice of this, Robey has had massive improvement in a short period of time, hard to see him falling outside top 6.

 

[gandaal]

l would not be taking too much notice of this, Robey has had massive improvement in a short period of time, hard to see him falling outside top 6.

Yes i mentioned that later. Massive improvement which is a credit to him.

I still think he'll continue to need some very good coaching development next year to help him catch up everything he missed from being outside a professional environment for so long. But that's a positive too because it means he has even more upside.

 

[Stamos]

Bolter.
Called by McGowan last week.

 

[bradfisher14]

He's also an incredibly high floor draftee in a year where even the highest rated come with question marks.

The biggest concern with Dean is hoping that a kid who turns 18 today (Happy Birthday Harry!) has another cm or two to grow.

There are plenty of players that "play taller" than their listed height. Steven May (193), Josh Battle (193), and Sam Collins (194) come to mind. Harry Dean is very much in that category.

 

[gandaal]

Bolter.
Called by McGowan last week.

Twomey did say that Melbourne are interested. Do they have a top 10 pick on the night after the bids?

Or are the invited just players likely taken in the first round?

 

[Stamos]

Twomey did say that Melbourne are interested. Do they have a top 10 pick on the night after the bids?

Or are they just players likely taken in the first round?

Likely (as in pretty much guaranteed) 1st Round.

Dees picks are 7 & 8, probably become 11 & 12.
But also Dogs & Giants (currently 12 & 14) apparently keen.

 

[macky99]

Yes i mentioned that later. Massive improvement which is a credit to him.

I still think he'll continue to need some very good coaching development next year to help him catch up everything he missed from being outside a professional environment for so long. But that's a positive too because it means he has even more upside.

Yes if it was not for Dean l believe Robey would have been our next best choice.

 

[Blue and Silver]

Really love Dovaston. He's about as readymade a player as you are going to find. Bust proof imo.

He's more than just a small forward as well. He's very good when getting up the ground, creating with his agility and speed.

What I like about him most is his quick disposal and decision making. He gets the ball away in a flash. One of the issues with judging u18 players is that the quality and pace of the footy is so far below AFL level. Players who look good dancing around skinny kids suddenly look third rate against elite professional athletes with bodies hardened by multiple preseasons. I'll have to watch more of him but I think this is going to be an issue for Duursma.

Anyway, this is why I love Dovaston so much. His quick, mostly accurate, disposal will make the transition to AFL footy really smooth. He's going to play round 1 in the right team and be a serious problem.

I haven't really been following this draft class to make definitive statements.

But, for Carlton, in the open pool, I think Dovaston is close to the top of my list.

Mitch Marsh is also up there

 

[gandaal]

I haven't really been following this draft class to make definitive statements.

But, for Carlton, in the open pool, I think Dovaston is close to the top of my list.

Mitch Marsh is also up there

I honestly think players like Dovaston slide because struggling clubs are so desperate for mids and key forwards.

Essendon fans would riot if they picked a small forward after their terrible year and picking up Kako last year. Instead they'll probably pick up another third tall defender in Xavier Taylor who "could be" a midfielder.

 

[ItsAllAboutMe]

Yes i mentioned that later. Massive improvement which is a credit to him.

I still think he'll continue to need some very good coaching development next year to help him catch up everything he missed from being outside a professional environment for so long. But that's a positive too because it means he has even more upside.

Sounds like the perfect player for Essendon to draft

 

[Blue and Silver]

Finding it hard to gauge this year's key forward prospects.

Convention has Schubert first (unless you count CDT) but what are people's rankings on them?

In very rough order

Schubert
Marsh
Emmett
McCarthy
Ludowyke
Hetherton

With the roughies being

Curtin
Ah Mu
Mckinnon

 

[C4[2]Yo`DooR]

I haven't really been following this draft class to make definitive statements.

But, for Carlton, in the open pool, I think Dovaston is close to the top of my list.

Mitch Marsh is also up there

My Preference is for: Dovaston, Pickett, Grlj, Farrow, Marsh or Lindsay

DO NOT want Uwland or Annable under any circumstances.

 

[ItsAllAboutMe]

If Josh Lindsay & Dovaston are both available at our pick, do those draft experts here have a view on which way we should go?

 

[Blue and Silver]

My Preference is for: Dovaston, Pickett, Grlj, Farrow, Marsh or Lindsay

DO NOT want Uwland or Annable under any circumstances.

Anti-Maroon bias?

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

If Josh Lindsay & Dovaston are both available at our pick, do those draft experts here have a view on which way we should go?

I'd be going Lindsay all day long for me. A lot of genuinely elite small forward prospects next year and there's more chance of picking up a small forward late than a talent like Lindsay.

 

[gandaal]

If only Hibbins-Hargreaves was 10 cm taller. Geez he makes a good forward. Strong mark, great kick for goal under pressure. I admit I've seen a small sample size though. Pity he isn't taller. Half forward at the highest level.

He loves his overhead look away handball doesn't he? Not sure that cuts it at AFL level.

 

[Blue and Silver]

If only Hibbins-Hargreaves was 10 cm taller. Geez he makes a good forward. Strong mark, great kick for goal under pressure. I admit I've seen a small sample size though. Pity he isn't taller. Half forward at the highest level.

He loves his overhead look away handball doesn't he? Not sure that cuts it at AFL level.

Not sure why, but he feels like a GWS pick

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Not sure why, but he feels like a GWS pick

Hawks keen

 

[Siegfried]

I did some calculations on the impact of different Dean bids on 9 and 11. It doesn't cover all scenarios, and makes some assumptions eg bids on Uwland and Patterson coming early, possible bid for Annable. It also doesn't take into account any pick swaps. I think the calculations are correct. What's interesting is that academy bids for GC and Bris players pushes a Dean bid back (good), but also pushes 9 and 11 back (not good), so they kind of cancel each other out in the net result.

I was unsure what the Dean bid would do to 9 and 11, and whether it pushes them back before the calculation to match points are made. According to ChatGPT, it doesn't (I used Dean being bid on at pick 3 by WC, who had already bid on Uwland, so our picks would be 10 and 12 before the Dean bid, as the example)...

The answer:​

Carlton’s picks stay at 10 and 12 for the purposes of calculating the match.
Here’s why:

• The AFL’s draft system determines the points cost based on the bid pick (in this case, pick 3 → 2234 points).
• To match, the club uses the current live points value of its picks at the time the bid is made.
• Carlton doesn’t yet have a player inserted at pick 3 when the calculation occurs; that only happens after they’ve committed to match and the AFL confirms they have enough points.
  

So:

• At the time of matching → Carlton’s picks are still 10 and 12, worth 1395 + 1268 = 2663 points.
• They use those to match the pick 3 bid worth 2234 × 0.9 = 2011 points.
• After that, Harry Dean is inserted at pick 3, and only then do all later picks (including their own unused ones) shift back by one.

Dean Bid	Later picks pushed back by	Picks to match	New pick
Pick 3 - 1960	1	10 (1276) + 12 (1140) = 2416	30 (456)
Duursma
Uwland – bid
Dean
Pick 4 - 1766	1	10 (1276) + 12 (1140) = 2416	23 (650)
Duursma
Uwland – bid
CDT
Dean
Pick 5 - 1615	2	11 (1205) + 13 (1080) = 2285	23 (670)
Duursma
Uwland – bid
CDT
Patterson – bid
Dean
Pick 6 - 1493	2	11 (1205) + 13 (1080) = 2285	20 (792)
Duursma
Uwland – bid
CDT
Patterson – bid
Player
Dean
Pick 7 - 1388	2	11 (1205) + 13 (1080) = 2285	17 (897)
Duursma
Uwland – bid
CDT
Patterson – bid
Player
Player
Dean
OR	3	12 (1140) + 14 (1024) = 2164	20 (776)
Duursma
Uwland – bid
CDT
Patterson – bid
Player
Annable - bid
Dean
Pick 8 - 1298	3	12 (1140) + 14 (1024) = 2164	17 (866)
Duursma
Uwland – bid
CDT
Patterson – bid
Player
Player
Annable - bid
Dean
OR	2	11 (1205) + 13 (1080) = 2285	15 (987)
Duursma
Uwland – bid
CDT
Patterson – bid
Player
Player
Player
Dean

 

[gandaal]

Not sure why, but he feels like a GWS pick

Yep or Hawthorn. He's got a lot going for him and he'll do well in the right environment. I feel like he could be one of those players that'll leave people scratching their head in 5 years time, wondering how he dropped so far.

 

[Blue and Silver]

Hawks keen

Of course. Why draft mids when you can draft guys who maybe might be able to play as a mid if everything goes perfect.

 

[gandaal]

Does anyone else get Lochie O'Brien

4

Lochie O'brien

Age

26

Ht

185cm

Wt

84kg

Pos.

M/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

13.2

3star

K

9.3

4star

HB

3.9

3star

M

4.5

4star

T

1.3

3star

CL

0.7

3star

No current season stats available

D

13.0

4star

K

9.8

4star

HB

3.2

3star

M

5.2

5star

T

1.4

4star

CL

1.0

3star

vibes from Josh Lindsay?

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Of course. Why draft mids when you can draft guys who maybe might be able to play as a mid if everything goes perfect.

I'd guess Oskar Taylor will be the Giants selection. Aging half back line and would fit in well next to Ash.

 

[bradfisher14]

DO NOT want Uwland or Annable under any circumstances.

More details pls