Analysis 2025 Draft watch

[Aphrodite]

 

[GT619]

yep but very low chance, it would be fantastic it if happened

I don't trust geelong or sam power

 

[Soapy V]

I just want to come out of this with Dean, Ison and as much as possible for next year. That’s all I care about.

Navigate tonight as shrewdly and sensibly as possible!

The bonus maybe getting another good player before Ison. Fingers crossed it falls our way

 

[Bluebag13]

I don't trust geelong or sam power

Oh for sure. I'm not getting my hopes up

 

[Uncle Fester]

Why would it be from 3 to 5? If WCE don't bid on Dean and Richmond do with their first it would be 3 to 4 wouldn't it? Because WCE take Duursma, bid on Uwland and then take CDT. Richmond then bid on Dean at 4.

the theory is that richmond probably would not bid on dean before annable or patterson for whom they have a greater need

so it goes

duursma
uwland
cdt
annable
patterson
dean

 

[carlton_99]

the theory is that richmond probably would not bid on dean before annable or patterson for whom they have a greater need

so it goes

duursma
uwland
cdt
annable
patterson
dean

Ah okay I get you. I'm just not sure how much need will play a role when they know for sure it's getting matched.

 

[viking12]

I do feel a bit flat that everything is so predictable already. That’s what happens when they dedicate such an insane amount of coverage to the draft.

still nowhere near US college

Draft coverage here only ramps up about 3 weeks out and the general public knows more about the draftees during that time. The only draftee from recent memory that has had decent coverage has been Cody Walker since 2024

 

[Blue__Balls]

All the laughing emoji's are just an attempt to control the mood. It could very well amount to underwhelming list management giving what we've lost. Are we competing next year or do we need a few years, because it's as sure as hell that the club doesn't know.

In fairness - the uncertainty stems from an historically flaky playing list and a fairly major shake-up of that playing list.

I reckon the club are optimistic that moving on a few uninvested, overpaid players, bringing in some hard-working players with solid skills and much lower salary requirements, mixing up the coaching panel and adding some coaching oversight with premiership experience could and probably should result in improvement from a list that was already underachieving vs. what it should be capable of.

But until the bullets start flying next season, we're not going to know for sure.

So the approach probably needs to be "Demand/expect performance, but keep a few irons in the fire in case we need to cut harder again next year".

 

[carlton_99]

All the laughing emoji's are just an attempt to control the mood. It could very well amount to underwhelming list management giving what we've lost. Are we competing next year or do we need a few years, because it's as sure as hell that the club doesn't know.

What has the club done that's giving you mixed messages in relation to the draft?

 

[lukep_86]

Not long to go now..can't wait for the elation and the melts later

 

[katmanblue]

Is West Coast costing itself by trying to bluff us?

Right now, as it stands they have pick 13.. take out all other matches, as they come after this pick, they simplistically think this pick comes in 2 by taking 9 and 11 of us? Well played in theory?

However, by bidding this early, we will now trade them to two certain users and two clubs - North and Essendon on almost the exact same list build timeline - direct competitors.

They are more likely to get pick 1, 2 and 11 by NOT bidding on Dean, than bidding on him?

They will 100% not get that pick 13 higher by bidding and remain a good to great chance of it coming in one or two spots by not bidding?

Scenario 1 (Won't happen):

West Coast bid pick 1 or 2, Carlton do no trades and match.

West Coast will pick 1,2,11.... well played WC.

Scenario 2:

West Coast bid pick 1 or 2, Carlton trade and match.

West Coast will pick 1,2,13.... north and Essendon 100% use those picks.

Scenario 3:

West Coast don't bid on Dean, pick their player or bid on Patterson/Annable (or Richmond do)

Richmond pick Dean pick 6.. Carlton Match and lose 9/11 and get 22 (may stay in to get this one back).

West Coast will pick 1,2,11....

Scenario 4:

West Coast don't bid on Dean, pick their player or bid on Patterson/Annable (or Richmond do)

Richmond don't bid Dean.. Essendon do Carlton Match and lose 9/11 and get 18 (almost certainly stay in for this pick).

West Coast will pick 1,2,11....

I think they're more concerned with their 4th and 5th picks coming in half a dozen spots or so.

 

[tragic]

I do, because I'd like to light West Coast up for draft tampering. No idea if we'd have grounds, but **** that behaviour.

And the Media seem to be driving the AFL/West Coast narrative by saying " Several Recruiters (anonymous) agree that Dean is rated in the top three of their draft boards"

 

[Uncle Fester]

bear with me

9 to west coast for 13 & 34 or 41
11 to essendon for 21 & 27
13 to north for 25 & F2
43 & 54 come along for the ride with their combined 198 points

we end up with 2408 points which covers a bid for harry at 5 and ison at 15.... - which would really mean an extra mid 20s pick as well as the noirth f2

 

[Jimmae]

And the Media seem to be driving the AFL/West Coast narrative by saying " Several Recruiters (anonymous) agree that Dean is rated in the top three of their draft boards"

If they get a nicely weighted trade straight after and it involves the very pick we he had to sacrifice to match the bid, that has to be scrutinised.

 

[Jimmae]

bear with me

9 to west coast for 13 & 34 or 41
11 to essendon for 21 & 27
13 to north for 25 & F2
43 & 54 come along for the ride with their combined 198 points

we end up with 2408 points which covers a bid for harry at 5 and ison at 15.... - which would really mean an extra mid 20s pick as well as the noirth f2

We almost definitely do not need that many points.

 

[Soapy V]

So if Cal Twomey is right we are swapping 9, 11, 43 & 54

for

21, 25, 27, 30, 46 and a F2

Assuming Dean goes at 3 what does that leave us with?

 

[Uncle Fester]

We almost definitely do not need that many points.

precisely

there should be change coming out of pick 27 which would bring 34 forward and 34 will be coming forward a bit as it will be a blood bat of picks in the 20s being burned up on academy and F&S picks - its why north will give us 25 instead of 26 they wont care as 25 will be burnt to a crisp and 26 will become 25

 

[Bletch]

So if Cal Twomey is right we are swapping 9, 11, 43 & 54

for

21, 25, 27, 30, 46 and a F2

Assuming Dean goes at 3 what does that leave us with?

The bid on Dean at 3 will eat up 20, 23 and 25 (first three of above after the bid on Uwland at 2). We'll get 51 back.

So, after we get Dean we'll have 26, 43, 51.

After Richmond bid on Patterson and Annable, we'll have 24, 39, 48 = 980 points (can match a bid on Ison at 15+).

 

[Jimmae]

So if Cal Twomey is right we are swapping 9, 11, 43 & 54

for

21, 25, 27, 30, 46 and a F2

Assuming Dean goes at 3 what does that leave us with?

Was already covered earlier today Soap, it's roughly two picks at 39 and 42 left over.

How are they draft tampering?

They're using the bidding system to acquire our top pick? It's got elements of the Veale deal if Essendon throw 6 & 9 for 2.

Not as dramatic of course, but heavily weighted to them.

 

[Soapy V]

The bid on Dean at 3 will eat up 20, 23 and 25 (first three of above after the bid on Uwland at 2). We'll get 51 back.

So, after we get Dean we'll have 26, 43, 51.

After Richmond bid on Patterson and Annable, we'll have 24, 39, 48 = 980 points (can match a bid on Ison at 15+).

Thanks

So we would hope no one bids for Ison before 24, get another player and possibly use 39 & 48 on Ison?

 

[lukep_86]

The bid on Dean at 3 will eat up 20, 23 and 25 (first three of above after the bid on Uwland at 2). We'll get 51 back.

So, after we get Dean we'll have 26, 43, 51.

After Richmond bid on Patterson and Annable, we'll have 24, 39, 48 = 980 points (can match a bid on Ison at 15+).

Thanks for this.

The later the bid comes for Ison, the better it is for us. If a bid for him didn't come and we still had pick 24, could we use it on another player and still have have enough points for him?

 

[Bletch]

Thanks

So we would hope no one bids for Ison before 26, get another player and possibly use 43 & 51 on Ison?

Unlikely to be enough. Instead, if it gets to our pick, we might trade back.

 

[Pablito]

So if Cal Twomey is right we are swapping 9, 11, 43 & 54

for

21, 25, 27, 30, 46 and a F2

Assuming Dean goes at 3 what does that leave us with?

36 and 46 i think.

Meaning a bid for Ison at 22 wont be covered for Ison.

Edit. Oh shoot i didn't account for 21, 25 and 27 being slightly lower with the Uwland bid.

Based on my calculations we get 32 and 46 still. Both of which will come in a few spots as Patterson, Annable and Kyle are bid on.

We should be fine.

 

[Bluebag13]

Unlikely to be enough. Instead, if it gets to our pick, we might trade back.

With the assumed * and North trades if Ison got past out pick, we have enough to get him even if someone bids straight after. we will even get a compo in the 50s

 

[Bamboo Harvester]

Cal Twomey reported a few days back that GCS are trading their 2026 picks for points this year. Apparently

• GWS pick 35 for 2026 2nd
• Crows pick 48 for 2026 3rd (Ess)
• Port pick 49 for their 2026 3rd.

Wouldn't mind if we jumped ahead of the queue and offered pick 43 for GCS 2026 3rd (Ess) - or pick 46 if we get that as part of the North trade.

I ran the numbers on the Pommy Draft sim after trades with Essendon, North and GCS, and we still get Dean (bid at pick 3), Ison (bid at pick 21) - and another pick at around pick 40 as well as 48.

If there's no bid on Ison beforehand, we get pick 24 - and a latter bid on Ison sees us going into a slight deficit on our 2nd round pick next year.

 

[swuzzlebubble]

Frustrating that it seems (via Twomey phantom) that our 9 & 11 will be used for Dovaston and Pickett by Ess & Nth