Analysis 2025 Draft watch

[Aphrodite]

 

[JimmyRabbit49]

And when everyone leaks to Twoomey who is an afl employee.

Is it a "leak" or a requirement.

 

[Jimmae]

And when everyone leaks to Twoomey who is an afl employee.

Technically he's independent of them, and I think the site revenue actually goes to Telstra in the current agreement?

 

[Blue and Silver]

Cal Twomey reported a few days back that GCS are trading their 2026 picks for points this year. Apparently

• GWS pick 35 for 2026 2nd
• Crows pick 48 for 2026 3rd (Ess)
• Port pick 49 for their 2026 3rd.

Wouldn't mind if we jumped ahead of the queue and offered pick 43 for GCS 2026 3rd (Ess) - or pick 46 if we get that as part of the North trade.

I ran the numbers on the Pommy Draft sim after trades with Essendon, North and GCS, and we still get Dean (bid at pick 3), Ison (bid at pick 21) - and another pick at around pick 40 as well as 48.

If there's no bid on Ison beforehand, we get pick 24 - and a latter bid on Ison sees us going into a slight deficit on our 2nd round pick next year.

I think that was yesterday

 

[Aphrodite]

Agresta: We’ll be pretty active

Michael Agresta previews Carlton's 2025 Telstra AFL Draft.

www.carltonfc.com.au

 

[Bundy Bear Bogan]

bear with me

9 to west coast for 13 & 34 or 41
11 to essendon for 21 & 27
13 to north for 25 & F2
43 & 54 come along for the ride with their combined 198 points

we end up with 2408 points which covers a bid for harry at 5 and ison at 15.... - which would really mean an extra mid 20s pick as well as the noirth f2

love your work. Your in the wrong profession ( without knowing what you do )

 

[AlecDuncan]

the theory is that richmond probably would not bid on dean before annable or patterson for whom they have a greater need

An obsessive Richmond follower tells me their defence is sorted long-term, and so Dean isn’t a priority.

 

[Uncle Fester]

love your work. Your in the wrong profession ( without knowing what you do )

ta - but just because it makes sense - it doesnt mean that it would happen - but it has to be said - the easiest way for West Coast to move pick 13 forward is this, unless they do something crazy with essendon for pick 2

i suppose the choice they have is 1, 2 and 9 versus 1, 5, & 6 , where 5, 6 & 9 have all move 3 picks back

 

[swuzzlebubble]

Is our best outcome from here that Essendon are able to prise 2 from WCE?

It might take 5 & 6, keeping 9 for themselves

 

[Bletch]

Thanks for this.

The later the bid comes for Ison, the better it is for us. If a bid for him didn't come and we still had pick 24, could we use it on another player and still have have enough points for him?

36 and 46 i think.

Meaning a bid for Ison at 22 wont be covered for Ison.

Edit. Oh shoot i didn't account for 21, 25 and 27 being slightly lower with the Uwland bid.

Based on my calculations we get 32 and 46 still. Both of which will come in at few spots as Patterson, Annable and Kyle are bid on.

We should be fine.

With the assumed * and North trades if Ison got past out pick, we have enough to get him even if someone bids straight after. we will even get a compo in the 50s

No, we wouldn't have enough points for a bid on Ison if we used that pick (26).

Here's the full story, with all trades happening (for us and Gold Coast) as CT has predicted, and all bids/picks as CT has predicted.

1. Start of draft, we have: 9, 11, 43 & 54

2. Following Ess/NM trades, we have: 21, 25, 27, 30, 46 and a F2

3. After bid on Uwland at 2 (matched), we have: 20, 23, 25, 28, 44 and a F2

4. With the bid on Dean at pick 3, we lose 20, 23 and 25, and gain 51 and 72.

5. We will then have 26, 43, 51, 72 and a F2.

6. After Richmond bid on Patterson and Annable, we'll have 24, 39, 48 = 980 points (can match a bid on Ison at 15+).

7. Jump forward to pick 22, where Geelong bid on Ison. At this point we have picks 26, 38, 47, 72 (these numbers have changed due to some earlier bids on Kyle and Murray).

8. We lose 26 and 38 matching the Ison bid, and gain 40. We then have 40, 47, 72 and a F2.

Maybe we could try bundling 40 and 47 to a slightly higher pick, but it's unlikely.

Now, to address the questions above...

If Geelong don't bid on Ison, and it gets through to our pick 26, and we use it on another player. Then we're left with 38, 47, 72 = 395 points. If a bid on Ison comes in at 27, that would cost 449 points - we're 46 points short. And it's still round one, so that deficit would carry through to round one next year, which is undesirable.

 

[swuzzlebubble]

46 points short. And it's still round one, so that deficit would carry through to round one next year, which is undesirable.

Would that even cost a pick though?
And if we trade/bundle a pick which has been impacted by deficit, does the deficit stay with the original pick or follow us?

 

[Pablito]

No, we wouldn't have enough points for a bid on Ison if we used that pick (26).

Here's the full story, with all trades happening (for us and Gold Coast) as CT has predicted, and all bids/picks as CT has predicted.

1. Start of draft, we have: 9, 11, 43 & 54

2. Following Ess/NM trades, we have: 21, 25, 27, 30, 46 and a F2

3. After bid on Uwland at 2 (matched), we have: 20, 23, 25, 28, 44 and a F2

4. With the bid on Dean at pick 3, we lose 20, 23 and 25, and gain 72.

5. We will then have 26, 43, 51, 72 and a F2.

6. After Richmond bid on Patterson and Annable, we'll have 24, 39, 48 = 980 points (can match a bid on Ison at 15+).

7. Jump forward to pick 22, where Geelong bid on Ison. At this point we have picks 26, 38, 47, 72 (these numbers have changed due to some earlier bids on Kyle and Murray).

8. We lose 26 and 38 matching the Ison bid, and gain 40. We then have 40, 47, 72 and a F2.

Maybe we could try bundling 40 and 47 to a slightly higher pick, but it's unlikely.

Now, to address the questions above...

If Geelong don't bid on Ison, and it gets through to our pick 26, and we use it on another player. Then we're left with 38, 47, 72 = 395 points. If a bid on Ison comes in at 27, that would cost 449 points - we're 46 points short. And it's still round one, so that deficit would carry through to round one next year, which is undesirable.

Looks good to me, thanks for putting the work in.

 

[Bletch]

Would that even cost a pick though?

Fair point. Our natural pick 18 would drop to 19.

 

[Bluebag13]

No, we wouldn't have enough points for a bid on Ison if we used that pick (26).

Here's the full story, with all trades happening (for us and Gold Coast) as CT has predicted, and all bids/picks as CT has predicted.

1. Start of draft, we have: 9, 11, 43 & 54

2. Following Ess/NM trades, we have: 21, 25, 27, 30, 46 and a F2

3. After bid on Uwland at 2 (matched), we have: 20, 23, 25, 28, 44 and a F2

4. With the bid on Dean at pick 3, we lose 20, 23 and 25, and gain 72.

5. We will then have 26, 43, 51, 72 and a F2.

6. After Richmond bid on Patterson and Annable, we'll have 24, 39, 48 = 980 points (can match a bid on Ison at 15+).

7. Jump forward to pick 22, where Geelong bid on Ison. At this point we have picks 26, 38, 47, 72 (these numbers have changed due to some earlier bids on Kyle and Murray).

8. We lose 26 and 38 matching the Ison bid, and gain 40. We then have 40, 47, 72 and a F2.

Maybe we could try bundling 40 and 47 to a slightly higher pick, but it's unlikely.

Now, to address the questions above...

If Geelong don't bid on Ison, and it gets through to our pick 26, and we use it on another player. Then we're left with 38, 47, 72 = 395 points. If a bid on Ison comes in at 27, that would cost 449 points - we're 46 points short. And it's still round one, so that deficit would carry through to round one next year, which is undesirable.

my brian is hurting a little here.

what have we done differently that got me (i used Pommy's Draft Sim):

Used carltons pick 26
Ison bid on 27
Used up 38+48+49
Comp 54
left with 52, 70, 73

This is assuming the trades of Essendon 9+43 for their picks and norths 25+46+F2 and following CT mock draft

 

[Soapy V]

No, we wouldn't have enough points for a bid on Ison if we used that pick (26).

Here's the full story, with all trades happening (for us and Gold Coast) as CT has predicted, and all bids/picks as CT has predicted.

1. Start of draft, we have: 9, 11, 43 & 54

2. Following Ess/NM trades, we have: 21, 25, 27, 30, 46 and a F2

3. After bid on Uwland at 2 (matched), we have: 20, 23, 25, 28, 44 and a F2

4. With the bid on Dean at pick 3, we lose 20, 23 and 25, and gain 72.

5. We will then have 26, 43, 51, 72 and a F2.

6. After Richmond bid on Patterson and Annable, we'll have 24, 39, 48 = 980 points (can match a bid on Ison at 15+).

7. Jump forward to pick 22, where Geelong bid on Ison. At this point we have picks 26, 38, 47, 72 (these numbers have changed due to some earlier bids on Kyle and Murray).

8. We lose 26 and 38 matching the Ison bid, and gain 40. We then have 40, 47, 72 and a F2.

Maybe we could try bundling 40 and 47 to a slightly higher pick, but it's unlikely.

Now, to address the questions above...

If Geelong don't bid on Ison, and it gets through to our pick 26, and we use it on another player. Then we're left with 38, 47, 72 = 395 points. If a bid on Ison comes in at 27, that would cost 449 points - we're 46 points short. And it's still round one, so that deficit would carry through to round one next year, which is undesirable.

Nice. Sounds to me we likely end with Dean, Ison and see if we rate someone at 40

Maybe this is where Toby Murray comes into it? I'd love to land Archie Ludowyke

 

[Bletch]

No, we wouldn't have enough points for a bid on Ison if we used that pick (26).

Here's the full story, with all trades happening (for us and Gold Coast) as CT has predicted, and all bids/picks as CT has predicted.

1. Start of draft, we have: 9, 11, 43 & 54

2. Following Ess/NM trades, we have: 21, 25, 27, 30, 46 and a F2

3. After bid on Uwland at 2 (matched), we have: 20, 23, 25, 28, 44 and a F2

4. With the bid on Dean at pick 3, we lose 20, 23 and 25, and gain 72.

5. We will then have 26, 43, 51, 72 and a F2.

6. After Richmond bid on Patterson and Annable, we'll have 24, 39, 48 = 980 points (can match a bid on Ison at 15+).

7. Jump forward to pick 22, where Geelong bid on Ison. At this point we have picks 26, 38, 47, 72 (these numbers have changed due to some earlier bids on Kyle and Murray).

8. We lose 26 and 38 matching the Ison bid, and gain 40. We then have 40, 47, 72 and a F2.

Maybe we could try bundling 40 and 47 to a slightly higher pick, but it's unlikely.

Now, to address the questions above...

If Geelong don't bid on Ison, and it gets through to our pick 26, and we use it on another player. Then we're left with 38, 47, 72 = 395 points. If a bid on Ison comes in at 27, that would cost 449 points - we're 46 points short. And it's still round one, so that deficit would carry through to round one next year, which is undesirable.

I should add to this...

After step 8, there's an opportunity for us to trade pick 40 to Essendon, as it's probable that they won't have enough points for Sweid (assuming they choose to match). Won't be for much, but any future pick would be welcome.

 

[Bletch]

my brian is hurting a little here.

what have we done differently that got me (i used Pommy's Draft Sim):

Did you do all of the CT trades? Or just the Carlton ones?

He also has GC trading futures to pick up 35, 48 and 49 from GWS, Adelaide and Port respectively. That effects bid matching numbers. Not sure if that accounts for the difference? I also used Pommy's simulator (and have tried out Sotaram's too).

 

[Blue__Balls]

If they get a nicely weighted trade straight after and it involves the very pick we he had to sacrifice to match the bid, that has to be scrutinised.

Why?

Seems like smart list management.

If they want 9, we don't want to trade it to them, but bidding on Dean with a pick that we are prepared to match means that we trade Pick 9 to a club who are prepared to on-trade it to WC so they themselves can move up the board - where is the foul play?

If we don't rate Dean that highly we can let him go. That's the means test. Club matches bid? Bid was fair.

 

[marcmurphy3]

my brian is hurting a little here.

what have we done differently that got me (i used Pommy's Draft Sim):

Word is we'll have to give kangas 52, so one less pick.

 

[Yubby]

No, we wouldn't have enough points for a bid on Ison if we used that pick (26).

Here's the full story, with all trades happening (for us and Gold Coast) as CT has predicted, and all bids/picks as CT has predicted.

1. Start of draft, we have: 9, 11, 43 & 54

2. Following Ess/NM trades, we have: 21, 25, 27, 30, 46 and a F2

3. After bid on Uwland at 2 (matched), we have: 20, 23, 25, 28, 44 and a F2

4. With the bid on Dean at pick 3, we lose 20, 23 and 25, and gain 72.

5. We will then have 26, 43, 51, 72 and a F2.

6. After Richmond bid on Patterson and Annable, we'll have 24, 39, 48 = 980 points (can match a bid on Ison at 15+).

7. Jump forward to pick 22, where Geelong bid on Ison. At this point we have picks 26, 38, 47, 72 (these numbers have changed due to some earlier bids on Kyle and Murray).

8. We lose 26 and 38 matching the Ison bid, and gain 40. We then have 40, 47, 72 and a F2.

Maybe we could try bundling 40 and 47 to a slightly higher pick, but it's unlikely.

Now, to address the questions above...

If Geelong don't bid on Ison, and it gets through to our pick 26, and we use it on another player. Then we're left with 38, 47, 72 = 395 points. If a bid on Ison comes in at 27, that would cost 449 points - we're 46 points short. And it's still round one, so that deficit would carry through to round one next year, which is undesirable.

Thanks for the detailed explanation and analysis. How does GCS potentially trading future picks for other clubs picks impact this? Eg if they get 3 picks in the 30s and 40s from other clubs. Wouldn't this mean the later picks potentially come in even more? Or have you already accounted for possible additional trades?

 

[Blue__Balls]

Technically he's independent of them, and I think the site revenue actually goes to Telstra in the current agreement?

Telstra, who sponsor the AFL

It's a big ol' circle jerk.

 

[Bluebag13]

Did you do all of the CT trades? Or just the Carlton ones?

He also has GC trading futures to pick up 35, 48 and 49 from GWS, Adelaide and Port respectively. That effects bid matching numbers. Not sure if that accounts for the difference? I also used Pommy's simulator (and have tried out Sotaram's too).

Only trades I did were for ours.

hmmm

 

[Bletch]

I

Thanks for the detailed explanation and analysis. How does GCS potentially trading future picks for other clubs picks impact this? Eg if they 3 picks in the 30s and 40s from other clubs. Wouldn't this mean the later picks potentially come in even more? Or have you already accounted for possible additional trades?

All included in that analysis.

Have assumed everything in CT's phantom comes off - the two Carlton trades with Ess/NM, and the 3 GC trades.

 

[Bluebag13]

Word is we'll have to give kangas 52, so one less pick.

Really? where did you see that

 

[ashstores]

Caveat emptor.

His footy was no secret, does your recruiting team not watch AFL?

By the looks of things, recently they haven't watched much.

 

[Bletch]

Really? where did you see that

From CT:

Phantom Draft late mail: Intrigue over Tigers' picks, Bombers' big haul

Draft guru Cal Twomey reveals the last-minute draft whispers ahead of the 2025 AFL Draft

www.afl.com.au

"The Bombers' deal with Carlton will see them land pick No.9 and likely pick 43 in exchange for picks 21, 27 and 30 in a swap that generates more points for the Blues to match bids on Dean and NGA prospect Jack Ison, and see them enter the draft with three top-10 picks for the first time since 2020. "

"North has been busy in recent days after securing pick 11 from Carlton, with the Roos swapping picks 25, 46 and a future second-rounder for 11 and 54. If a bid comes for Dean at No.3 as expected, it would likely spit out the Blues' next pick around No.25. "