Analysis 2025 Draft watch

[Aphrodite]

 

[Blue_Fusion]

And Ainsworth, and Florent, and Jagga, and Chesser, and the Campos, and Ison, and multiple future first round picks...

But don't let that get in the way of a good tanty.

Yep... oh and Hayward says hi too...

 

[Old navy]

Also seen a lot of complaining about losing TDK JSOS and Curnow and what we got back in return for them, but something I think a lot of people aren’t taking into account is the amount of cap space we saved with those 3 leaving.
We saved roughly 3 million in cap space, which means we can go after any free agents or players we want and we now have the draft picks and the cap space to be really flexible in how we wanna build out our list.

Seen heaps of complaining about what we’ve done with picks 9 and 11, but the fact is those picks are really picks 13 and 15, so instead of picking at 13 and 15 we’ve gotten Dean pick 3, pick 28 plus North’s F2 is not a bad result considering the position we were put in with the early Dean bid.
We’ve now added Jagga pick 3 and Dean pick 3 in consecutive draft without a bottom 3 finish, with Cody Walker to come.

 

[marcmurphy3]

Philippou is not someone Carlton takes. Not our style. If he is a figjam there is no way we will go near him. Its not the Carlton way. Trust me on that. Wish we would give it a go but i would be surprised if we did.

I reckon we could do with a bit of figjam sometimes, so long the player can back it up and has decent character overall.

We have several highly paid players, that when its their moment tend to shy away and dont want to be "the man".

Nothing wrong with backing yourself. I think we demonise it at times in this country. Probably because of our tall poppy syndrome.

 

[TerryWallet]

i think it seems pretty clear that we have planned to get Dean, Ison, as much 2026 capital as possible, then a low ranked small forward like Tobyn Murray or someone like that.

So with Ison now likely slipping past our next pick, we'll try to trade 28 for as much 2026 capital as we can which also leaves us with enough points to nab Ison and leaves a remnant pick over for Murray.

If we can end with Dean, Ison, 2 2026 2nds, and Murray(for eg), or a slider....then that is damn good work by a diligent and imo effective recent List Mgt team.

 

[Ninja Worrier]

Philippou is not someone Carlton takes. Not our style. If he is a figjam there is no way we will go near him. Its not the Carlton way. Trust me on that. Wish we would give it a go but i would be surprised if we did.

Quite possible...our recruiters will know if genuine figjam or just a bit immature and poorly advised.

I agree the most likely outcome is we trade out for another F2 and take a small forward later

 

[Bfevola]

What is our obsession with average small forwards for us. We need talls. Our list is a bit unbalanced.

 

[marcmurphy3]

What is our obsession with average small forwards for us. We need talls. Our list is a bit unbalanced.

Yeah, I dont personally think we need another small forward.

 

[Blue By Blood]

What is our obsession with average small forwards for us. We need talls. Our list is a bit unbalanced.

Especially always taking them late in a draft- the skilled ones more often than not go early. Kosi Pickett, Watson, Dovaston etc.. We have a love affair with trying to get lucky with a good small forward late. It hasn't worked. Durdin, Motlop (jury still out) etc.

What our list screams out for is talent and athleticism. Less vanilla players and more genuine talent. Take the best available and if that's Phillipou so be it. I'd even rather take a punt on a young tall forward with upside than yet another small forward. Really don't see the need to trade back given we get a free hit at a player before Ison and should be able to get Cody next year anyway or at worst end with a small deficit.

Edit: I'll also add that small forwards need at least one elite trait to be truly dangerous and cause match up issues. Whether that's blistering speed, unbelievable work in traffic (slippery), crumbing instincts, IQ etc.. When you draft a small forward that isn't exceptional in any one area they just end up very average and almost a non-existent threat for the opposition to worry about. We've had too many of these types and it's time to move past that approach.

 

[skadoosh]

Yeah, I dont personally think we need another small forward.

Agree - we need to target another KPF in Ludowyke

 

[Old navy]

That ignores the fact they had 4 first round selections in 2023 (Walter #3, Read #9, Rogers #14, Graham #26) and 1 first rounder in 2024 (Lombard #9) to go with their other 4 last night.

That's 9 first rounders in 3 years, and add Petracca this season. I don't think it's unfair for others that feel this is too much.

You say they've had to sell the farm but what other club has had close to that volume of first rounders over a 3 year period?

Your right it is way too much, the difference between this years draft and 2023 draft is this year they’ve had to use up all the assets they had banked plus this years draft hand and next years, it’s a much fairer price they’ve had to pay.
Unfortunately they’re so loaded with talent now it’ll be easy for them to build up their draft hand for next year again and apparently they have another gun academy kid in next years draft, it looks like GCS is just going to be a talent merry go round unless the rules change

 

[josephone]

Trading into next year isn't just about Cody though. It's about having assets to use in a trade for Butters or another player that may become available. It's also about being able to cash in on the last draft not compromised by Tasmania.

These factors (and Cody) mean that 2026 picks are like gold to us, no matter where they fall. Probably more valuable than the players left on the board at the moment.

 

[Bfevola]

Agree. Either go for a project tall forward. Or Philippou or Greeves. They are untried. Murray would have been taken by Geelong if he was any good. I trust their eye for talent.

 

[blueycarlton]

Dylan Patterson had contracts from 4 NRL clubs thrown at him at 15 years old. Kid looks an absolute gun from the little I've seen.

It's a bit easier for Sydney to pick good players when you have only one other team to compete with in the whole state.
Here we have 10. Although the Vic clubs could do a lot more. I believe Carlton hasn't had one player come through and play a senior game from its NGA. I could be wrong. Maybe Ison if selected, will be the first.

 

[teagueyubeauty]

The other issues they will have is that they can't fit all the 1st round talent they have into their team and 1st rounders don't like being stuck in the 2s. Rogers , Walter & others might drop out cheaply in the future

Correct, that’s why I’m surprised they didn’t cash in on Walter this year…he’s one that could be playing magoos a lot

But if they have little to show for the academy next year it kinda makes sense.

Anyhow, the point is not a snowflakes chance in hell they’ll be getting 4 first rounders again from the academy unless they do some serious wheeling n dealing and paying through the nose to get them

 

[JuddgementDay]

If we go for a pick a 28, let's say Archie Ludowyke, do we have enough points to match for Ison?

 

[GT619]

talor byrne not bad, solid lefty

 

[The Blue Weirdo]

Just remove the discount of you finish top 4.

Okay, lets try that, it's a start.
I'm not against the northern academies, just teams rooted to the bottom of the ladder for decades should receive increasing assistance(not random picks at the AFL's whim) until there is regular upwards movement.

Try this method before they introduce a maximum use of 2 picks to select a draftee(which is being threatened), that penalises every team.

 

[smashbox gill]

How many list spots do we have? Do we have room for ISON + 1?

 

[ctwenty1]

If we go for a pick a 28, let's say Archie Ludowyke, do we have enough points to match for Ison?

yes

 

[ctwenty1]

How many list spots do we have? Do we have room for ISON + 1?

we are upgrading HoK

so not sure iof that means we have a rookie/SPP spot avialble

 

[bmaurizio]

I'd take the challenge with Philippou too, a confident, talented youngster , with bold character.
Given our upgraded coaching panel, a youngster a little conceited perhaps still immature can be advised appropriately and mentored, we've got to be aggressive, talent is supreme. Otherwise, a project tall being the less risk option.

 

[KnaveyBlue]

Agree. Either go for a project tall forward. Or Philippou or Greeves.

After watching more footage I hope we take a punt on Greeves and get him a sprint coach. He's such a natural all-round footballer.

 

[PenskeFile]

i think it seems pretty clear that we have planned to get Dean, Ison, as much 2026 capital as possible, then a low ranked small forward like Tobyn Murray or someone like that.

So with Ison now likely slipping past our next pick, we'll try to trade 28 for as much 2026 capital as we can which also leaves us with enough points to nab Ison and leaves a remnant pick over for Murray.

If we can end with Dean, Ison, 2 2026 2nds, and Murray(for eg), or a slider....then that is damn good work by a diligent and imo effective recent List Mgt team.

Yeah that’s how I read it, hopefully we can get a good 2026 pick. Perhaps the player we are thinking of taking this year (along with Ison) will be available later in the draft

 

[marcmurphy3]

Im hoping for Phillipou or an F2 trade. While I agree we need a KPF none available excite me.

 

[Bfevola]

Are you hearing anything marcmurphy3 ?