Europe Backdrop to the war in Ukraine

[Gethelred]

This is the thread for the geopolitics, history and framework around the Russia-Ukraine conflict. If you want to discuss the events of the war, head over to this thread:

Europe - War in Ukraine - Thread 4 - thread rules updated

This is the thread for discussing the War in Ukraine. Should you want to discuss the geopolitics, the history, or an interesting tangent, head over here: https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/backdrop-to-the-war-in-ukraine.1302028/ If a post isn't directly concerning the events of the war or...

www.bigfooty.com

 

[wannabejack]

 

[Zidane98]

Interesting that there's now talk of a peace deal on Ukraine's terms after Trump's Putin inspired proposal was outrightly dismissed by Zelensky. This is light of Russia's recent losses to Ukraine.

At the end of the day nobody is supporting Russia apart from the likes of North Korea & Iran. Putin has completely failed to convince anyone of the legitimacy of his invasion and has suffered the ignominy of being unable to prevent its assets being seized by the European Union.


It makes sense for Putin to do a deal that includes total Russian withdrawal and a guarantee of no NATO in the near future. I'm sure the west would be happy to even allow Putin to declare this as a "victory" if it means putting an end to the war and protecting the security of Ukraine / Europe.

 

[Andre]

Interesting that there's now talk of a peace deal on Ukraine's terms after Trump's Putin inspired proposal was outrightly dismissed by Zelensky. This is light of Russia's recent losses to Ukraine.

At the end of the day nobody is supporting Russia apart from the likes of North Korea & Iran. Putin has completely failed to convince anyone of the legitimacy of his invasion and has suffered the ignominy of being unable to prevent its assets being seized by the European Union.


It makes sense for Putin to do a deal that includes total Russian withdrawal and a guarantee of no NATO in the near future. I'm sure the west would be happy to even allow Putin to declare this as a "victory" if it means putting an end to the war and protecting the security of Ukraine / Europe.

Yeah, no loss for Ukraine to say they won't ask to join NATO anytime soon, since they'd be vetoed anyway. As long as they get real protection, they'll take that. Let Putin have his face saving 'We've stopped the Nazi's joining NATO'. Zelensky would hold elections and not run if there's a ceasefire (with those real protections in place), so Putin can claim 'Nazi gone!' back home. As long as at a minimum Russia isn't attacking any further, it'd be enough for now (with them leaving completely down the track when Putin is gone and/or their economy / demography won't allow an extended occupation).

 

[barreness]

Russia gets its 210 billion euros in assets as soon as it withdraws from Ukraine in disgrace and Putin agrees to never act like a modern day Hitler piece of human excrement again.


It really isn't a difficult equation, Russia can have its assets back in 30 days if it really wants them.

To be honest I doubt it, Iran still has ~100 billion frozen. I would think Russia has more or less presumed they won't see them for a while, maybe some deal on drawing down nuclear weapons in a decade(very optimistic from me).

EU trying to put emergency powers on the loan/reparations deal so a majority could push it through. Italy joined Belgium(plus Hungary, Slovaks) on potentially vetoing it. Ah well, meeting next week to chat about and probably come to no decision, a very EU result

 

[barreness]

This is not reality at all.

Russia has agreed Ukraine's borders permanently and inviolably with the UN in the past. This cannot be repealed - you know this.

Russia's unilateral annexation therefore is a guarantee to fail - like every other attempted annexation of previously agreed sovereignty.

You also are fully aware of this.

Russia needs Ukraine to agree its annexation to succeed. This is not happening. Not even Putin getting his agent Krasnov to pressure Ukraine can achieve this and he is the president of the US.

That leaves a hostile occupation remaining that requires 6-700,000 troops just to maintain it without losing ground while having zero hope of achieving an annexation. It comes at the cost of approximately $1 trillion plus conservatively, it ensures Russia remains a pariah state permanently. Not to mention the millions of casualties it would inflict upon Russia, all because a dictator can't accept the fact that Ukranians reject Russian subjugation.

Pedo Putin has lost the war and has no hope of winning. The objective was destruction of Ukraine the state, the language, the people who disagree with Putin's dream of a new Russian empire.

That is not and simply will never be achieved.

Putin is now just trying to murder / torture / forcibly transfer Ukranian civilians, destroy as much of Ukraine as possible before he calls it a day or a hero of Russia murders the filthy fascist piece of human excrement that Putin is.

The US provides sweet FA to Ukraine. Starlink is not the US government and Russia also uses it. It is also not the only option for internet access either. All of Ukraine's major military successes against Russia involve Ukraine using ingenuity, smarts and home made military products.

Operation spiderweb cost barely $1 millino and inflicted nearly $10 billion in damage on Russia's heavy / nuclear bomber fleet. The best part about it was they were delivered by Russian truck drivers who believed that they were animal tracking drones.

US already stopped arms deliveries for 12 months during Biden's term when Pedo Krasnov & the republicans were blocking a new military aid package.

Ukraine survived just fine, as it has done without US supplies which Pedo Krasnov seems to arbitrarily withdraw when he feels like it.

You also fail here too. I guess you've been brainwashed in your role at the internet research agency into believing that Ukranians couldn't possibly hold of Russia themselves but that is the reality.

As I said before - Ukranians view Putin in the same way that Jews viewed Hitler.

There is no chance that Ukranians will accept being a Russian puppet state or accept being occupied.

I will say that North Korea, Iran & China could end the war pretty quickly if they wanted to.

Putin cannot produce cruise missiles without Chinese electronics. Putin relies on ammunition & military hardware from North Korea / Iran simply to keep his invasion going.


If all 3 of those actors pulled out any support from Putin Russia would be finished within weeks. Soldiers do not want to fight on behalf of a bloodthirsty fascist who takes the cannon fodder approach in a racist manner to claim small amounts of territory.


And once again on behalf of everyone in this thread - we apologise that you are forced to defend this stuff in this tread. It must really take its toll on you personally defending pretty much the modern day equivalent of Hitler.

Whilst a good novel here I disagree on mostly everything. International law doesn't really exist, there's no monopoly on violence to enforce it(I guess the US got close in the 90's).

UN is a diplomacy club, that's it's use. General assembly rulings are ignored by everyone, and the veto of security council is the only way to keep the big dogs in the room(Soviets boycotting in the 50's and letting the Korean war be a UN war etc)

Just one thing on Starlink. This changed after the Crimea stuff early in the war when Ukraine wanted coverage for an ongoing sea drone attack(was illegal for Musk to allow it because of sanctions the US had put on Russia)
It's now gone from Musk's decision to the Pentagons and they certainly don't allow it on Russian controlled territory(the odd stolen terminal/changing front being the exception)
There are very few other options for satellite internet that's high enough bandwidth, this is how you run drones and why the Russians went to fibre optic cables(as insane as this seems, also EW/jammers). China is developing one and there has been suspicions that the Russians have been allowed to use it

 

[Zidane98]

Whilst a good novel here I disagree on mostly everything. International law doesn't really exist, there's no monopoly on violence to enforce it(I guess the US got close in the 90's).

UN is a diplomacy club, that's it's use. General assembly rulings are ignored by everyone, and the veto of security council is the only way to keep the big dogs in the room(Soviets boycotting in the 50's and letting the Korean war be a UN war etc)

Just one thing on Starlink. This changed after the Crimea stuff early in the war when Ukraine wanted coverage for an ongoing sea drone attack(was illegal for Musk to allow it because of sanctions the US had put on Russia)
It's now gone from Musk's decision to the Pentagons and they certainly don't allow it on Russian controlled territory(the odd stolen terminal/changing front being the exception)
There are very few other options for satellite internet that's high enough bandwidth, this is how you run drones and why the Russians went to fibre optic cables(as insane as this seems, also EW/jammers). China is developing one and there has been suspicions that the Russians have been allowed to use it

Whatever you believe about UN the absolute reality is no state that has a territorial agreement registered with the UN has or ever will succeed in annexing territory unilaterally.


No matter what you say about the UN it is an absolute fact that any annexation by Russia needs agreement from Ukraine for it to succeed. I'll remind you that Russia is a permanent member of the UNSC and has no choice but to meet certain obligations.

If you wish to argue that Ukraine may agree to an annexation - that's a different story and discussion. Personally I believe I have more chance of winning powerball 3 weeks in a row than Ukraine ever agreeing to give up territory to Putin.

As far as annexing territory on its own accord - that simply will not happen for Russia - period.

The only option Putin has is a hostile occupation of Ukraine. What for? With annexation impossible, what's the point? Hostile occupation of Ukraine does nothing for Russia.

 

[Aussie in exile]

Whilst a good novel here I disagree on mostly everything. International law doesn't really exist, there's no monopoly on violence to enforce it(I guess the US got close in the 90's).

UN is a diplomacy club, that's it's use. General assembly rulings are ignored by everyone, and the veto of security council is the only way to keep the big dogs in the room(Soviets boycotting in the 50's and letting the Korean war be a UN war etc)

Just one thing on Starlink. This changed after the Crimea stuff early in the war when Ukraine wanted coverage for an ongoing sea drone attack(was illegal for Musk to allow it because of sanctions the US had put on Russia)
It's now gone from Musk's decision to the Pentagons and they certainly don't allow it on Russian controlled territory(the odd stolen terminal/changing front being the exception)
There are very few other options for satellite internet that's high enough bandwidth, this is how you run drones and why the Russians went to fibre optic cables(as insane as this seems, also EW/jammers). China is developing one and there has been suspicions that the Russians have been allowed to use it

You love of russia and putin shines through again.
Obviously like putin you don't care how many russian lives are lost for for the little man's ego.

 

[Baldur]

In vatnik minds this entire war is a proxy war between the US and Russia with Ukraine acting as the US puppet, meanwhile Trump is Putin's sock puppet.

There would have been evidence that this was true, if Trump had been correct that he would stop the war in 24 hours. So the vatniks believed Trump.

LOL, their delusion is seriously mind eroding stuff.

 

[barreness]

Whatever you believe about UN the absolute reality is no state that has a territorial agreement registered with the UN has or ever will succeed in annexing territory unilaterally.


No matter what you say about the UN it is an absolute fact that any annexation by Russia needs agreement from Ukraine for it to succeed. I'll remind you that Russia is a permanent member of the UNSC and has no choice but to meet certain obligations.

If you wish to argue that Ukraine may agree to an annexation - that's a different story and discussion. Personally I believe I have more chance of winning powerball 3 weeks in a row than Ukraine ever agreeing to give up territory to Putin.

As far as annexing territory on its own accord - that simply will not happen for Russia - period.

The only option Putin has is a hostile occupation of Ukraine. What for? With annexation impossible, what's the point? Hostile occupation of Ukraine does nothing for Russia.

Ok, let's see what happens

 

[CM86]

Ok, let's see what happens

Is it possible that Bush''s WMDs are the same as Putin's NATO?

Is there any point in this conflict where you'd start to think that the invading force is more at fault for the loss of life, rather than the invaded?

 

[barreness]

In vatnik minds is this entire war is a proxy war between the US and Russia with Ukraine acting as the US puppet, meanwhile Trump is acting as if he is Putin's sock puppet.

There would have been evidence that this was true, if Trump had been correct that he would stop the war in 24 hours. So the vatniks believed Trump.

LOL, their delusion is seriously mind eroding stuff.

Que?

If Trump was a Russian agent he would have stopped starlink, ISR, and banned US weapons(no matter the buyer) overnight. The US president has this power. He hasn't though

There's many in the US power structures that want this war to continue, mainly the neocons but also many in the Pentagon/CIA. Also some well meaning liberals who don't want to abandon Ukraine after what they promised them since '14.

Trump has no coherent foreign policy, that much is clear. He wants a Peace Prize because Obama got one, hence the end wars stuff while trying to start one with Venezuela.

Your post also makes no sense but I'll let that pass, Trumpian if you will. Many such cases

 

[barreness]

Is it possible that Bush''s WMDs are the same as Putin's NATO?

Well NATO does exist and had agreed to expand into Ukraine, WMD's didn't(bar the chemical weapons the US had sold him for the Iran war).

If NATO dies as a alliance, or the US drops out officially(I very much doubt this) then it would be considered a massive win for Russia. Pushing US bases back to Germany/Italy, no missiles/anti missile missiles on your doorstep. This would be the geopolitical coup of the century and worth however many hundreds of thousands of lives(rip)

Is there any point in this conflict where you'd start to think that the invading force is more at fault for the loss of life, rather than the invaded?

I've never suggested this. Of course Russia is at fault directly for the deaths, US is at fault indirectly for using Ukraine as a proxy, Ukraine is at fault for being dumb and not taking any of the peace deals.
EU/UK, well they're just vassals for a US admin that doesn't exist any more, I can hardly explain their actions with reason. Nostalgia?

 

[CM86]

Well NATO does exist and had agreed to expand into Ukraine, WMD's didn't(bar the chemical weapons the US had sold him for the Iran war).

OK. Not sure what is honest, subterfuge, or ignorance from you anymore.

It's about the excuse for military action...

 

[CM86]

WMDs exist and NATO exists. Therefore any threat we state that exists from them existing, justifies military expansion...

Baron, you don't even belelive that Ukraine should exist outside of Russia, do you?

 

[barreness]

WMDs exist and NATO exists. Therefore any threat we state that exists from them existing, justifies military expansion...

Baron, you don't even belelive that Ukraine should exist outside of Russia, do you?

Que? WMD's didn't exist as far as a justification for Iraq war 2. This is well known.
They did have some chemical stockpiles(that the US sold them) that have been used as an excuse for the invasion post hoc. Saddam abandoned his nuclear program years before.

You can either take other nations security concerns seriously or ignore them. Yes NATO exists and is a security concern to nations surrounding it e.g Yugoslavia, Libya, Afghanistan, Syria

Should exist? Well that's a big question. Gonna have to get all Socratic on ya but no, nation states are just an abstract concept and pretty modern, none need exist

Ukraine does exist so I guess that means it should?
That area of territory has existed under various different names and cultures, as can be seen with the mix of cultures within. It existed under the Tsarist empires, the USSR, the Polish Lithuania commonwealth, Independent Ukraine, Rus etc.

It broke off from the Soviet Union upon it's collapse to form for the first time independent Ukraine(was a few month period post WW1 treaty, pre Russian civil war when some declared a Ukrainian state as a German puppet). A major part of this '91 independence declaration was being neutral and non-nuclear, that was why the Soviets/Russians let them go without much pomp.

Do I speak in riddles? you seem to misconstrue me regularly

 

[barreness]

OK. Not sure what is honest, subterfuge, or ignorance from you anymore.

It's about the excuse for military action...

US backed alliances have been a threat to all countries for quite some time, subterfuge ironically being one of their main weapons

 

[CM86]

US backed alliances have been a threat to all countries for quite some time, subterfuge ironically being one of their main weapons

Of course. You look for any excuse or justification.

When the US backs Russia, it's because of (insert justification).

 

[CM86]

Que? WMD's didn't exist as far as a justification for Iraq war 2. This is well known.
They did have some chemical stockpiles(that the US sold them) that have been used as an excuse for the invasion post hoc. Saddam abandoned his nuclear program years before.

You can either take other nations security concerns seriously or ignore them. Yes NATO exists and is a security concern to nations surrounding it e.g Yugoslavia, Libya, Afghanistan, Syria

Should exist? Well that's a big question. Gonna have to get all Socratic on ya but no, nation states are just an abstract concept and pretty modern, none need exist

Ukraine does exist so I guess that means it should?
That area of territory has existed under various different names and cultures, as can be seen with the mix of cultures within. It existed under the Tsarist empires, the USSR, the Polish Lithuania commonwealth, Independent Ukraine, Rus etc.

It broke off from the Soviet Union upon it's collapse to form for the first time independent Ukraine(was a few month period post WW1 treaty, pre Russian civil war when some declared a Ukrainian state as a German puppet). A major part of this '91 independence declaration was being neutral and non-nuclear, that was why the Soviets/Russians let them go without much pomp.

Do I speak in riddles? you seem to misconstrue me regularly

Tons of bullshit. Point is that you're stating that you don't believe tha Ukrainians are valued human life.

 

[barreness]

Of course. You look for any excuse or justification.

When the US backs Russia, it's because of (insert justification).

I don't understand this argument.
The US is no neutral party in this conflict, without their backing from '14-'24 to overthrow the 'pro-Russian' govt and build their military back up then Ukraine would stand no chance(they would also have been no threat, you see what happened here?)

The US abandoning their 'allies' when they become useless or too costly is no great surprise when you have a grasp of their history. Was Biden a Taliban agent? Nixon a secret Uncle Ho stan?

 

[barreness]

Tons of bullshit. Point is that you're stating that you don't believe tha Ukrainians are valued human life.

I've been saying they should take a peace deal for three years in this thread, maybe I value them a bit more than yourself.

There's no shame in being a vassal if it means you keep you and yours life

 

[barreness]

https://www.compactmag.com/article/how-decades-of-folly-led-to-war-in-ukraine/

Try this article, there's a whole history here that will explain a lot if you don't understand why this war is taking place

 

[Aussie in exile]

I've been saying they should take a peace deal for three years in this thread, maybe I value them a bit more than yourself.

There's no shame in being a vassal if it means you keep you and yours life

Why should they it's there country
Can putin be trusted in any peace deal?

 

[Zidane98]

I don't understand this argument.
The US is no neutral party in this conflict, without their backing from '14-'24 to overthrow the 'pro-Russian' govt and build their military back up then Ukraine would stand no chance(they would also have been no threat, you see what happened here?)

The US abandoning their 'allies' when they become useless or too costly is no great surprise when you have a grasp of their history. Was Biden a Taliban agent? Nixon a secret Uncle Ho stan?

This of course is utter bullshit and blatant Russian propaganda.

It has always been Ukrainians and Ukraine itself who have decided they want to be an independent state. The US is a neutral party their only involvement is as far as their Budapest obligations go (they forced Ukraine to transfer their nuclear arsenal to Russia).

It is also a fact that Ukraine rejecting Russian subjugation is no threat to Russia at all apart from being a blow to Pedo Putins dreams of a hee empire.

You defend Pedo Putin who instead of building a bilateral relationship with Ukraine decided nope, I'll occupy Ukraine if they don't yield to my fascist empire dreams.

It's amazing how you roll out the same fascist pro Russian bullshit, almost like you can't deviate from a script where mother Russia good - Ukraine bad.

 

[Zidane98]

Why should they it's there country
Can putin be trusted in any peace deal?

Obviously. Even our Russian trolls accept that Ukraine won't be signing a guarantee with Russia as part of any deal.

That would be the same as asking Jews to sign a peace guarantee with Hitler prior to WW2 ending.

 

[barreness]

Why should they it's there country
Can putin be trusted in any peace deal?

*Their

lol sorry

But seriously; Probably, they've held neutrality deals in the past(Finland, Georgia).

The real question is can Ukraine be trusted to fulfil their side of the bargain. You'll note Zelensky was elected on a platform of finally fulfilling Minsk2, though he failed(didn't try for the constitutional reforms, doubt they would have got through the Rada tbf)