Expansion A third team in Queensland? AFL acknowledges QLD3 as a 20th licence option

[eastfreo75]

Is the AFL purposely not helping WA footy because they have the eventual goal to own the two AFL clubs like they do in every other state?

Yes

 

[Byron_Clanger]

That's exactly what the league needs. Another team hoarding all the top draft picks through the Academy.

 

[Rob]

Is the AFL purposely not helping WA footy because they have the eventual goal to own the two AFL clubs like they do in every other state?

That doesn't even make any sense, it's not like either AFL club here's struggling for fans so whiteanting development in WA isn't making it any easier to achieve that aim. Buying out West Coast would probably cost a quarter of a billion dollars alone.

 

[greatwhiteshark]

That doesn't even make any sense, it's not like either AFL club here's struggling for fans so whiteanting development in WA isn't making it any easier to achieve that aim. Buying out West Coast would probably cost a quarter of a billion dollars alone.

It would be about 80 million and it’s just the licence the AFL want. Paid 4 million up front for it in 1986.
Sell it for 100 million and demand upfront payment.
Personally I would never ever sell the licences and the WAFC should give 5% ownership of each licence the WAFL clubs to protect their future forever.

 

[GC2015]

That's exactly what the league needs. Another team hoarding all the top draft picks through the Academy.

There's two ways to look at it. The way you've described or the talent being produced in Queensland will be spread more evenly because it's gone from two to three teams drafting the majority of Queenslanders. To put it perspective, it'd be the equivalent of this third QLD team getting Harris Andrews, Eric Hipwood and Jack Payne because they'd be from the northern academy zone that would likely get assigned to the new team meanwhile the Lions would only get the likes of Keidean Coleman and Daniel Annable because they came from the southern zone. So a more even spread of Queensland talent within the capital city of Brisbane and perhaps less likelihood of the Lions dominating the league.

Brisbane is the only major city in Australia that has just one AFL team. Surely it's not going to be like that forever...

 

[Canberra Pear]

Brisbane is the only major city in Australia that has just one AFL team. Surely it's not going to be like that forever...

But Brisbane is also the only one of the non-Melbourne major cities that has another team within an hour.

Brisbane and the Gold Coast may be separate markets, but they're not that separate. They may not identify as Gold Coasters, but most of southern Brisbane have two teams they can see within an hour's drive.

I do think Brisbane could sustain a second team in the future, but it's pretty obvious why it's the last major city without a second team. If the Gold Coast didn't exist, they may've already had one.

 

[GC2015]

But Brisbane is also the only one of the non-Melbourne major cities that has another team within an hour.

Brisbane and the Gold Coast may be separate markets, but they're not that separate. They may not identify as Gold Coasters, but most of southern Brisbane have two teams they can see within an hour's drive.

You've obviously never lived in Brisbane or the Gold Coast. I know it's not what you want to read, but this is just not true. Just because you CAN drive one hour south to see a footy match, doesn't mean you WILL. These are very much two separate cities with two separate identities / cultures and not much travel occurs between the two cities when it comes to watching professional sport. Up until a year or two ago, it was difficult to even convince Brisbane people to travel an hour south to see their own team play in a QClash! Trust me - it's not what you think it is and Gold Coasters will similarly resist travel to Brisbane to watch professional sport.

I do think Brisbane could sustain a second team in the future, but it's pretty obvious why it's the last major city without a second team. If the Gold Coast didn't exist, they may've already had one.

IMO the reason Brisbane don't already have a second AFL team is because when the state started to show good signs of growth at the grassroots level following Brisbane's triple premiership era (e.g. 8 Queenslanders drafted in the first 32 picks in the 2006 AFL draft) the lay of the land showed Southport were the wealthiest and most dominant team in the QAFL and the Gold Coast was producing a lot of the exceptional Queensland talent that was getting drafted at the time like Tippett, Hale, Merrett, Beams etc. Plus, the Gold Coast had come on in leaps and bounds in terms of population by overtaking Newcastle as the sixth most populated city in Australia in 2007, which meant it was the largest city in Australia without an AFL team. All signs at the time suggested it was a good move to introduce a Gold Coast team into the AFL and the NRL had done the same just a few years earlier with the establishment of the Titans.

Brisbane, as a market independent of the Gold Coast, has really only come to life at the grassroots level in a significant way in the last 5-7 years. The successes of the women's team has been a big part of that growth in the Brisbane market and we're finally seeing it translate into the men's game with Brisbane boy Dan Annable drafted with a top 6 pick this year. Regular sell outs at the Gabba over the last few years have certainly helped massively and the new Olympic stadium should take it to the next level in the 2030s. IMO Brisbane is putting its hand up for a second team now because the stats are showing that there is genuine demand for more AFL content in the Brisbane market and the game has really come to life at the grassroots level inside the Brisbane boundaries. That level of demand / growth didn't exist in the past.

 

[Canberra Pear]

You've obviously never lived in Brisbane or the Gold Coast. I know it's not what you want to read, but this is just not true. Just because you CAN drive one hour south to see a footy match, doesn't mean you WILL. These are very much two separate cities with two separate identities / cultures and not much travel occurs between the two cities when it comes to watching professional sport. Up until a year or two ago, it was difficult to even convince Brisbane people to travel an hour south to see their own team play in a QClash! Trust me - it's not what you think it is and Gold Coasters will similarly resist travel to Brisbane to watch professional sport.

Like I said, separate, but not that separate.

There's obvious parochial boundaries, but when you look at the geography and demographics, there's still two teams within an hour of each other. And all of the nuances of parochialism between Brisbane and the Gold Coast don't change that.

It might mean that the Gold Coast won't affect a future second Brisbane team, but it's definitely factored into why there's only one Brisbane team now.

Ironically, the one Gold Coaster I know in Canberra is a Lions fan.

Brisbane is putting its hand up for a second team

Are they? Would you mind sending a link? Because I can't find any reference from anybody representing Brisbane or AFL Queensland that is pushing for a second team.

 

[GC2015]

Like I said, separate, but not that separate.

There's obvious parochial boundaries, but when you look at the geography and demographics, there's still two teams within an hour of each other. And all of the nuances of parochialism between Brisbane and the Gold Coast don't change that.

It might mean that the Gold Coast won't affect a future second Brisbane team, but it's definitely factored into why there's only one Brisbane team now.

Ironically, the one Gold Coaster I know in Canberra is a Lions fan.

The Suns aren't servicing the Brisbane market in any significant way. In fact, the Suns are unapologetically a Gold Coast team that often positions itself as anti-Brisbane for the purposes of the QClash rivalry. Why on earth would a Brisbane person embrace a team in another city that is openly positioning itself against your home city? That makes no sense. It'd be like living in Sydney and seeing a team in Wollongong position itself as anti-Sydney's for the rival... and then for some reason you, as a Sydneysider, choose to travel to Wollongong to watch said team / support them. Who would even do that? It doesn't make sense.

You know what Brisbane people who are curious about Aussie rules and aren't already Lions fans would be far more likely to get behind? Another Brisbane team. The question is just whether there's enough demand / growth to warrant a second Brisbane team yet. I already know you feel there isn't enough demand and I believe the current growth trajectory shows there will be enough demand once we get to the 2030s and the league is looking to introduce a 20th team to coincide with the next broadcasting rights deal. Another factor here is the broadcasters wanting expansion in specific large markets and I think Brisbane would be very appealing for that reason.

 

[Canberra Pear]

The Suns aren't servicing the Brisbane market in any significant way. In fact, the Suns are unapologetically a Gold Coast team that often positions itself as anti-Brisbane for the purposes of the QClash rivalry. Why on earth would a Brisbane person embrace a team in another city that is openly positioning itself against your home city? That makes no sense. It'd be like living in Sydney and seeing a team in Wollongong position itself as anti-Sydney's for the rival... and then for some reason you, as a Sydneysider, choose to travel to Wollongong to watch said team / support them. Who would even do that? It doesn't make sense.

There was a 9k drop in the Lions' crowds the year the Suns joined.

I know the Lions were on a downward trend, but that's a huge drop that was clearly affected by the Suns. There's clearly some crossover between the cities.

Like I said, a future team might not be affected by the Gold Coast, especially one you base on the northern side of Brisbane, but it's previously been a factor.

You know what Brisbane people who are curious about Aussie rules and aren't already Lions fans would be far more likely to get behind? Another Brisbane team. The question is just whether there's enough demand / growth to warrant a second Brisbane team yet. I already know you feel there isn't enough demand and I believe the current growth trajectory shows there will be enough demand once we get to the 2030s and the league is looking to introduce a 20th team to coincide with the next broadcasting rights deal. Another factor here is the broadcasters wanting expansion in specific large markets and I think Brisbane would be very appealing for that reason.

That would be true if you weren't getting such a bigger new stadium at the same time.

I know you want Brisbane 2 to be in the window for the 20th team, but you can't reconcile entering a new team at nearly the exact same time capacity increases so dramatically. No realistic amount of trajected growth is going to allow for that.

A second Brisbane team in the early 2030s would work with the current Gabba, but not with Victoria Park. And Victoria Park looks like it's going ahead, so best of luck for the 21st team.

Brisbane is putting its hand up for a second team

Just circling back to this, would you mind putting in a link if you have one?

 

[GC2015]

There was a 9k drop in the Lions' crowds the year the Suns joined.

I know the Lions were on a downward trend, but that's a huge drop that was clearly affected by the Suns. There's clearly some crossover between the cities.

Like I said, a future team might not be affected by the Gold Coast, especially one you base on the northern side of Brisbane, but it's previously been a factor.

Context is really important when discussing this situation. In 2010, Brisbane had just come off participating in their first finals series since the triple premiership era came to an end 5 years earlier and they even won a final to make it through to the semis in 2009. They were very much a young + exciting team with a few premiership stars still in their prime years like Jonathan Brown (28), Simon Black (30) and Luke Power (30).

The Lions definitely looked like they were on the way up with club legend Michael Voss coaching them to the finals in his first year AND they just landed the reigning Coleman Medallist Brendan Fevola. People were very optimistic about what the Lions could achieve leading into the 2010 season after winning a final in 2009 and the increase in members from late 2008 to 2010 (21k to 26k) + in the increase in crowds in late 2009 + the early stages of 2010 reflected that: Late 2009 - R20 33k v Bulldogs, F1 32k v Carlton, Early 2010 - R1 29k v West Coast, R2 36k v Carlton (sell out), R4 33k v Bulldogs, R8 33k v Geelong, R10 34k v Collingwood.

By mid-season 2010, it had become obvously that Brisbane weren't going to live up to the pre-season hype and the crowds dropped off accordingly to the point that they didn't pull a crowd over 30k again after that R10 game. In fact, Brisbane lost 8 consecutive matches after their R10 2010 victory over Collingwood. So although the 2010 crowd average will tell you they pulled 29k to the Gabba for that season, it's heavily front loaded due to what was happening. Look at the 2010 crowds they were pulling towards the end of the season when it was obvious they weren't going to play finals: R18 26k v Melbourne, R20 25k v Adelaide, R22 24k v Sydney.

It's not surprising to see a 4k drop in members from 2010 to 2011 after a season like that (they had the same number of members in 2008 & 2011) and they just continued that gradual crowd slide into the 2011 season: R1 23k v Fremantle, R5 22k v St Kilda, R8 24k v Essendon. Just looking at the season averages and not taking into account the context of what was going at the time can definitely give you the wrong impression of what was happening and I believe that's what has happened here with your post.

Would there have been some crossover from Brisbane to the Gold Coast in 2011? Sure, but it's been grossly exaggerated when I've seen others discuss this topic. The truth is Brisbane were on a downward spiral that gradually saw them get lower and lower with each mounting loss. I don't think the introduction of the Suns had much to do with it because you can clearly see it was happening before they existed anyway. It wasn't like there was this sudden drop in crowds like some would have you believe - the Lions pulled 24k to their last Gabba game in 2010 and 23k to their first Gabba game in 2011. The decline was gradual for Brisbane and that's what happens when you go from a team that looks like it's heading back to the finals in 2010 based on pre-season predictions, but in actuality they finish 13th in 2010 and 15th in 2011.

That would be true if you weren't getting such a bigger new stadium at the same time.

I know you want Brisbane 2 to be in the window for the 20th team, but you can't reconcile entering a new team at nearly the exact same time capacity increases so dramatically. No realistic amount of trajected growth is going to allow for that.

A second Brisbane team in the early 2030s would work with the current Gabba, but not with Victoria Park. And Victoria Park looks like it's going ahead, so best of luck for the 21st team.

You're really hung up on the stadium thing. Go back and have a look at similar situations like the SCG upgrade to approximately 50k capacity occurring in the same year that GWS entered the AFL or Subiaco being upgraded in the year that Fremantle entered the AFL. This isn't the deal breaker that you think it is. You can increase stadium capacity at the same time that a second team from the same city enters the league and we know this because it's happened several times in the past.

Just circling back to this, would you mind putting in a link if you have one?

There's a reason why I ignored it the first time, but since you've done it again... Why did you edit out the 'IMO' part before the 'Brisbane is putting its hand up for a second team' quote? Don't you think that's important context that you've removed and now you're asking for a link? I was expressing my opinion and made it known that it was my opinion. Removing context from quotes is bad practice so I'll ask you to not do that again.

 

[hampton]

A second Brisbane afl team would be worse supported than GWS. Leave it for another decade or two.

 

[Canberra Pear]

Would there have been some crossover from Brisbane to the Gold Coast in 2011? Sure, but it's been grossly exaggerated when I've seen others discuss this topic. The truth is Brisbane were on a downward spiral that gradually saw them get lower and lower with each mounting loss. I don't think the introduction of the Suns had much to do with it because you can clearly see it was happening before they existed anyway. It wasn't like there was this sudden drop in crowds like some would have you believe - the Lions pulled 24k to their last Gabba game in 2010 and 23k to their first Gabba game in 2011. The decline was gradual for Brisbane and that's what happens when you go from a team that looks like it's heading back to the finals in 2010 based on pre-season predictions, but in actuality they finish 13th in 2010 and 15th in 2011.

You've gone way too deep. I just wanted some recognition that there's at least some cross over between the two markets.

You're really hung up on the stadium thing. Go back and have a look at similar situations like the SCG upgrade to approximately 50k capacity occurring in the same year that GWS entered the AFL or Subiaco being upgraded in the year that Fremantle entered the AFL. This isn't the deal breaker that you think it is. You can increase stadium capacity at the same time that a second team from the same city enters the league and we know this because it's happened several times in the past.

I'm "hung up" on it, because it's incredibly important. I can't believe you're being so flippant about it.

The fact that you're using those comparisons is also disingenuous.

The Giants and Swans aim to service two different markets, in two different stadiums. Brisbane 2 will play in Victoria Park. They'll essentially be a Lions 2.0.

And the SCG capacity increased 2k. That's so negligible that it wasn't even worth including.

I can't find the specifics of Subiaco, but its 1995 upgrade was a single stand. I doubt it was a 37k-seat upgrade.

I honestly don't get how you can't see why increasing capacity by more than 350% would be an issue for the second team. Do you not see it, or are you being wilfully ignorant?

I0nic Hampton has a point. A second Brisbane team could be quite like the early years of the Giants. Except the Giants played at a boutique stadium across town.

If you bring in a second Brisbane team before the Lions have filled out Vic Park, you risk sub-10k crowds in a 63k stadium. That'd look terrible for the game.

There's a reason why I ignored it the first time, but since you've done it again... Why did you edit out the 'IMO' part before the 'Brisbane is putting its hand up for a second team' quote? Don't you think that's important context that you've removed and now you're asking for a link? I was expressing my opinion and made it known that it was my opinion. Removing context from quotes is bad practice so I'll ask you to not do that again.

Sorry, I interpreted that part as fact, and the IMO as related to the timeframe around it. Sorry for my misinterpretation.

I cut it for simplicity for just the part I wanted answered (I wasn't chasing a link around timeframes).

So, confirming, you don't have any links about Brisbane putting their hand up and it is just your opinion?

 

[hampton]

Second Brisbane team wouldn’t even be in the realms of serious thinking for team 20. There’s no one calling out for a second Brisbane team, where would the support come from?

But I think once vic stadium is built and the lions have had a couple seasons there, and if they’re regularly getting 50k crowds, it will immediately start the conversation for a second Brisbane team. I don’t think they’ll get close to filling out regularly for a long time though.

Right now there are more obvious options for team 20 - Canberra and WA3. Probably it will be Canberra. There are way too many unknowns and risks for another qld team.

After team 20 if it’s Canberra the AFL will then have their work cut out to bolster a western-Sydney only GWS without the Canberra prop-up and continuing building up Suns in GC. Doesn’t matter what Canberra Pear says, a new Canberra team will be a hit on GWS members and crowds for sure. To what extent we won’t know, but I’d imagine we’d be back to sub 8k crowds at western Sydney.

That will see out the afl for the next decade or two.

 

[Canberra Pear]

After team 20 if it’s Canberra the AFL will then have their work cut out to bolster a western-Sydney only GWS without the Canberra prop-up and continuing building up Suns in GC. Doesn’t matter what Canberra Pear says, a new Canberra team will be a hit on GWS members and crowds for sure. To what extent we won’t know, but I’d imagine we’d be back to sub 8k crowds at western Sydney.

That will see out the afl for the next decade or two.

Why are you always so pessimistic about the Giants, I0nic? They're tracking in the right direction.

But three extra games won't bring the average down that much. I actually think it'll have the opposite effect, but that's probably a discussion for another thread.

Even if the Giants had absolutely zero people rock up to the extra three games, they'd still average 9k.

 

[LeBronco]

Is the AFL purposely not helping WA footy because they have the eventual goal to own the two AFL clubs like they do in every other state?

Brisbane are controlled by their members not the AFL and it won't be long before Adelaide become a member controlled club too. I don't think the AFL want to control every interstate club they just tend to forget about WA and SA because all the TV money in Australia comes from NSW, Victoria and Queensland so their focus and priority tends to be those three states.

 

[The Educator]

Brisbane are controlled by their members not the AFL and it won't be long before Adelaide become a member controlled club too.

Correct. This is my understanding from a quick scratch around

The Crows apparently will transfer to fully normal member elected boards at the end of 2028. The can move to this beforehand at mutual agreement between board and AFL

The Swans and Port dont have a default date but apparently can do so now at mutual agreement with the AFL

These three clubs all have 2 board positions elected by normal members.

The Suns' and Giants' constitutions apparently have triggers based on financial metrics

They are member owned clubs but there is a special class of member in their constitutions (i.e. the AFL) with sole rights over board appointments.

The Eagles and Dockers are different in that they are limited by shares rather than limited by guarantee, and have a single shareholder that is the WAFC.

 

[JimmyBC]

Correct. This is my understanding from a quick scratch around

The Crows apparently will transfer to fully normal member elected boards at the end of 2028. The can move to this beforehand at mutual agreement between board and AFL

The Swans and Port dont have a default date but apparently can do so now at mutual agreement with the AFL

These three clubs all have 2 board positions elected by normal members.

The Suns' and Giants' constitutions apparently have triggers based on financial metrics

They are member owned clubs but there is a special class of member in their constitutions (i.e. the AFL) with sole rights over board appointments.

The Eagles and Dockers are different in that they are limited by shares rather than limited by guarantee, and have a single shareholder that is the WAFC.

I think we'll need Koch out the way before it happens at Port, he likes being unaccountable to the members far too much to encourage it. The real Port people are aware and will push though.

 

[LeBronco]

I think we'll need Koch out the way before it happens at Port, he likes being unaccountable to the members far too much to encourage it. The real Port people are aware and will push though.

Koch also said Brisbane are AFL controlled while trying to justify Port Adelaide maintaining an AFL controlled board by saying AFL controlled clubs can win premierships look at Brisbane, from memory he also tried to justify keeping Hinkley by saying old coaches can win premierships look at Chris Fagan. Once Adelaide become a member controlled club it'll be hard to see a case for Port remaining under AFL control especially since Port have managed to clear their debt.

 

[GC2015]

You've gone way too deep. I just wanted some recognition that there's at least some cross over between the two markets.

And I recognised that there would have been a small amount of crossover, but that theory has been exaggerated IMO. In reality, the Lions dropped 4k members in a season that they went from finishing top 6 to 13th (perfectly reasonable drop for that circumstance) and the crowds went from 25k in late 2010 games to 23k in early 2011 games, which is also to be expected when you have that kind of drop in performance. If the Suns did have an impact on the Lions when they entered the league in 2011, it was only minimal. The truth is the Lions were gradually dropping off in all the telling metrics as the losses were mounting and the stats show that began well before the Suns even entered the AFL.

The stats clearly show that the two Queensland clubs haven't taken away members / crowds from each other in any significant way. In fact, the stats prove both QLD clubs are creating new fans and growing the game tremendously well at the grassroots level. You only have to look at the record memberships and crowds set by both clubs in 2025 to see that is true and I believe you'd see even more previously unaffiliated people drawn to the game if a second Brisbane team entered the league e.g. the crossover of fans from the Lions/Suns would be minimal and you'd mostly see new fans coming to the game to support the third QLD club.

Neither the Lions or Suns are having trouble creating new fans in recent years - the Lions have gained just under 50k extra members since 2018 and the Suns have gained just under 20k extra members since 2018 - and I'm confident that another team in South East Queensland would have similar results because the same format would be implemented with a northern academy being created to focus on untapped areas and grow the game properly at the grassroots level in their zone.

I'm "hung up" on it, because it's incredibly important. I can't believe you're being so flippant about it.

The fact that you're using those comparisons is also disingenuous.

The Giants and Swans aim to service two different markets, in two different stadiums. Brisbane 2 will play in Victoria Park. They'll essentially be a Lions 2.0.

I think this is once again a cultural thing that you'd only understand if you lived here. Brisbane people often talk about being 'north of the river' (northside) or 'south of the river' (southside). The Brisbane River is seen as a natural divider of the city and which side of the river you are from comes with a level of identity for residents. Generally speaking, the northern side of Brisbane tends to be seen as more affluent and the southern side is less so. The Lions were historically based inner-south of the river (Woollongabba / Coorparoo) before moving west to Springfield in 2022 and the northern suburbs of Brisbane remain relatively untapped in that sense.

That's not to say there aren't Lions fans north of the river, but it's just not where the Lions have focused on in the past (with the exception of a brief testing period in Burpengary). A second Brisbane AFL team would almost certainly base itself north of the river and would work on growing the game in the northern suburbs + neighbouring Moreton Bay and even a bit further north to the Sunny Coast. I personally think teaming up with a QAFL club called the Aspley Hornets would be a great idea considering they are already well established in the northern suburbs and are wealthy. Aspley can be used in a similar way to the Southport Sharks on the Gold Coast in terms of growing the game at the grassroots level in northern Brisbane.

I honestly don't get how you can't see why increasing capacity by more than 350% would be an issue for the second team. Do you not see it, or are you being wilfully ignorant?

Well, for starters - I don't think we're seeing a true reflection of the crowds that the Lions are currently capable of pulling to home games in the Brisbane market. We know their crowd average would be higher in a bigger stadium because they virtually sell out every home game at the Gabba these days.

What would be considered a solid home crowd average in a 60k stadium? Perth Stadium's capacity is 60k and Freo averaged 45k to home games in 2025 (third largest in the AFL behind Collingwood and Carlton) meanwhile West Coast averaged 42k to home games in 2025 (fifth largest in the AFL behind fourth placed Adelaide). I would assume most would agree that those are pretty good home crowd averages even though there's 15-20k empty seats on average when they play and I don't think it's a stretch to suggest Brisbane's crowd average would likely jump the required 10k to move into the top 5 in the league if the capacity allowed for it. IMO this idea of needing to 'fill out' a 60k stadium before expanding doesn't really hold up when you look at how some of the best teams in the league are going in terms of their home crowd averages or previously rounds of expansion in the AFL.

In 2025, the Dolphins averaged crowds of 23k to home games at the 52k capacity Suncorp Stadium and the Broncos averaged 41k to home games at Suncorp. What do you think of that? Keep in mind, our premier has said in the last few months that he wants to upgrade the capacity at Suncorp Stadium to 65k in the near future. No one seems concerned about the Dolphins potentially only filling 1/3 of the stadium if the upgrade goes ahead. It's about maximising the opportunity for the Broncos and future proofing the stadium for the larger crowds it will pull as the population grows. The same can be said about the Lions and the future of Aussie rules in Brisbane / Queensland. Vic Park will allow the Lions to pull those massive crowds that they can't at the Gabba, but it can also serve as a venue for a smaller second Brisbane team (like the Dolphins) as well.

If you bring in a second Brisbane team before the Lions have filled out Vic Park, you risk sub-10k crowds in a 63k stadium. That'd look terrible for the game.

And what have you based that on? How could you possibly know what kind of crowd number a second Brisbane team would pull in the 2030s? The Lions had 75k members in 2025 and it's entirely possible that they are going to break through the 80k barrier in 2026 considering they are expected to be a top 4 team again. Their 75k membership base is already more than double the capacity of the Gabba and there's likely thousands of Brisbane people missing out on attending AFL games every second week. Clearly there's currently high demand for AFL content within the Brisbane market. Why would you just ignore that if you're trying to promote growth in Queensland?

Just to be clear, the Lions won't be moving into the new Vic Park Stadium until 2033 and the current broadcasting rights deal ends in 2031. So hypothetically, if you started a second Brisbane AFL team in 2032 then that team would need to share the Gabba with the Lions for at least one season. That opens all kinds of possibilities if it was obvious that the second Brisbane team wasn't ready to move to Victoria Park. There's no reason why the Gabba couldn't be retained for a few extra years while the new team establishes itself, with the eventual goal to move permanently to Vic Park. I personally wouldn't do it that way because I don't think a second Brisbane team pulling 20-30k to home games at Vic Park in their first few years would be a big deal, but if that was a genuine concern for the AFL then I'm sure they could convince the QLD government to retain the Gabba for a few more years.

 

[LeBronco]

Why bring in a hybrid Sunshine Coast/Brisbane team it would be pointless since Brisbane and Sunshine Coast are two distinct areas, it annoys me when people try and link the two it's like those who talk about there being crossover between Gold Coast and Brisbane.

 

[threenewpadlocks]

Why bring in a hybrid Sunshine Coast/Brisbane team it would be pointless since Brisbane and Sunshine Coast are two distinct areas, it annoys me when people try and link the two it's like those who talk about there being crossover between Gold Coast and Brisbane.

But there are ways to make the overall offering of men, women and senior gamrs work across two cities and have an academy/growth presence in the region based in the area, just like how the Bulldogs make Western suburbs and Ballarat work.

Nobody's explicitly saying that it's a "hybrid" team just that the team can represent the region and take some sort of product to the people of Sunshine Coast (provided there's an appropriate stadium).

 

[Canberra Pear]

Well, for starters - I don't think we're seeing a true reflection of the crowds that the Lions are currently capable of pulling to home games in the Brisbane market. We know their crowd average would be higher in a bigger stadium because they virtually sell out every home game at the Gabba these days.

You point to the Lions' poor performance for the drop in 2011, but conveniently ignore the Lions' current form when banging on about current crowd growth.

The Lions are in dynasty only matched by the early 2000s (or possibly to be bettered). The growth of the Lions' current crowds have to be tempered with the reality that they are currently buoyed by everybody on the bandwagon.

What would be considered a solid home crowd average in a 60k stadium? Perth Stadium's capacity is 60k and Freo averaged 45k to home games in 2025 (third largest in the AFL behind Collingwood and Carlton) meanwhile West Coast averaged 42k to home games in 2025 (fifth largest in the AFL behind fourth placed Adelaide). I would assume most would agree that those are pretty good home crowd averages even though there's 15-20k empty seats on average when they play and I don't think it's a stretch to suggest Brisbane's crowd average would likely jump the required 10k to move into the top 5 in the league if the capacity allowed for it. IMO this idea of needing to 'fill out' a 60k stadium before expanding doesn't really hold up when you look at how some of the best teams in the league are going in terms of their home crowd averages or previously rounds of expansion in the AFL.

The Lions may not need to fill out, but they should be selling out Vic Park consistently first. The Eagles have thousands paying just to be on a waitlist for a membership. If the Lions reach that level, then yeah, Brisbane would probably be ready for a second team.

In 2025, the Dolphins averaged crowds of 23k to home games at the 52k capacity Suncorp Stadium and the Broncos averaged 41k to home games at Suncorp. What do you think of that? Keep in mind, our premier has said in the last few months that he wants to upgrade the capacity at Suncorp Stadium to 65k in the near future. No one seems concerned about the Dolphins potentially only filling 1/3 of the stadium if the upgrade goes ahead.

What do I think? I think you're continuing to grasp at straws.

1. Suncorp is proposed to be upgraded 12k, compared to AFL's 26k upgrade
2. The Dolphins also already have a smaller, boutique stadium as their main ground
3. There's a decade between the Dolphins' entry and the proposed upgrade

And what have you based that on? How could you possibly know what kind of crowd number a second Brisbane team would pull in the 2030s? The Lions had 75k members in 2025 and it's entirely possible that they are going to break through the 80k barrier in 2026 considering they are expected to be a top 4 team again. Their 75k membership base is already more than double the capacity of the Gabba and there's likely thousands of Brisbane people missing out on attending AFL games every second week. Clearly there's currently high demand for AFL content within the Brisbane market. Why would you just ignore that if you're trying to promote growth in Queensland?

It's an estimate. But it's a real risk when you do both so close.

Members aren't like-for-like with crowd numbers. 80k members, but three-gamers and even single-games make up a big chunk of that.

The Eagles have a 60k stadium with 100k members. They could probably reach 120k if the memberships allowed. A 63k stadium will be more than enough for one team in Brisbane for at least a while.

Just to be clear, the Lions won't be moving into the new Vic Park Stadium until 2033 and the current broadcasting rights deal ends in 2031. So hypothetically, if you started a second Brisbane AFL team in 2032 then that team would need to share the Gabba with the Lions for at least one season. That opens all kinds of possibilities if it was obvious that the second Brisbane team wasn't ready to move to Victoria Park. There's no reason why the Gabba couldn't be retained for a few extra years while the new team establishes itself, with the eventual goal to move permanently to Vic Park. I personally wouldn't do it that way because I don't think a second Brisbane team pulling 20-30k to home games at Vic Park in their first few years would be a big deal, but if that was a genuine concern for the AFL then I'm sure they could convince the QLD government to retain the Gabba for a few more years.

I don't think they'll hold the Gabba either. It's already slated for residential developments after the Olympics.

A second Brisbane team pulling 20-30k at Vic Park is incredibly optimistic. The Lions have been doing that as the primary team in Brisbane. A second team, playing in the exact same stadium as the Lions while they increase capacity so dramatically, has no chance of pulling that.

It's basic supply and demand.

 

[hampton]

And I recognised that there would have been a small amount of crossover, but that theory has been exaggerated IMO. In reality, the Lions dropped 4k members in a season that they went from finishing top 6 to 13th (perfectly reasonable drop for that circumstance) and the crowds went from 25k in late 2010 games to 23k in early 2011 games, which is also to be expected when you have that kind of drop in performance. If the Suns did have an impact on the Lions when they entered the league in 2011, it was only minimal. The truth is the Lions were gradually dropping off in all the telling metrics as the losses were mounting and the stats show that began well before the Suns even entered the AFL.

The stats clearly show that the two Queensland clubs haven't taken away members / crowds from each other in any significant way. In fact, the stats prove both QLD clubs are creating new fans and growing the game tremendously well at the grassroots level. You only have to look at the record memberships and crowds set by both clubs in 2025 to see that is true and I believe you'd see even more previously unaffiliated people drawn to the game if a second Brisbane team entered the league e.g. the crossover of fans from the Lions/Suns would be minimal and you'd mostly see new fans coming to the game to support the third QLD club.

Neither the Lions or Suns are having trouble creating new fans in recent years - the Lions have gained just under 50k extra members since 2018 and the Suns have gained just under 20k extra members since 2018 - and I'm confident that another team in South East Queensland would have similar results because the same format would be implemented with a northern academy being created to focus on untapped areas and grow the game properly at the grassroots level in their zone.


I think this is once again a cultural thing that you'd only understand if you lived here. Brisbane people often talk about being 'north of the river' (northside) or 'south of the river' (southside). The Brisbane River is seen as a natural divider of the city and which side of the river you are from comes with a level of identity for residents. Generally speaking, the northern side of Brisbane tends to be seen as more affluent and the southern side is less so. The Lions were historically based inner-south of the river (Woollongabba / Coorparoo) before moving west to Springfield in 2022 and the northern suburbs of Brisbane remain relatively untapped in that sense.

That's not to say there aren't Lions fans north of the river, but it's just not where the Lions have focused on in the past (with the exception of a brief testing period in Burpengary). A second Brisbane AFL team would almost certainly base itself north of the river and would work on growing the game in the northern suburbs + neighbouring Moreton Bay and even a bit further north to the Sunny Coast. I personally think teaming up with a QAFL club called the Aspley Hornets would be a great idea considering they are already well established in the northern suburbs and are wealthy. Aspley can be used in a similar way to the Southport Sharks on the Gold Coast in terms of growing the game at the grassroots level in northern Brisbane.


Well, for starters - I don't think we're seeing a true reflection of the crowds that the Lions are currently capable of pulling to home games in the Brisbane market. We know their crowd average would be higher in a bigger stadium because they virtually sell out every home game at the Gabba these days.

What would be considered a solid home crowd average in a 60k stadium? Perth Stadium's capacity is 60k and Freo averaged 45k to home games in 2025 (third largest in the AFL behind Collingwood and Carlton) meanwhile West Coast averaged 42k to home games in 2025 (fifth largest in the AFL behind fourth placed Adelaide). I would assume most would agree that those are pretty good home crowd averages even though there's 15-20k empty seats on average when they play and I don't think it's a stretch to suggest Brisbane's crowd average would likely jump the required 10k to move into the top 5 in the league if the capacity allowed for it. IMO this idea of needing to 'fill out' a 60k stadium before expanding doesn't really hold up when you look at how some of the best teams in the league are going in terms of their home crowd averages or previously rounds of expansion in the AFL.

In 2025, the Dolphins averaged crowds of 23k to home games at the 52k capacity Suncorp Stadium and the Broncos averaged 41k to home games at Suncorp. What do you think of that? Keep in mind, our premier has said in the last few months that he wants to upgrade the capacity at Suncorp Stadium to 65k in the near future. No one seems concerned about the Dolphins potentially only filling 1/3 of the stadium if the upgrade goes ahead. It's about maximising the opportunity for the Broncos and future proofing the stadium for the larger crowds it will pull as the population grows. The same can be said about the Lions and the future of Aussie rules in Brisbane / Queensland. Vic Park will allow the Lions to pull those massive crowds that they can't at the Gabba, but it can also serve as a venue for a smaller second Brisbane team (like the Dolphins) as well.


And what have you based that on? How could you possibly know what kind of crowd number a second Brisbane team would pull in the 2030s? The Lions had 75k members in 2025 and it's entirely possible that they are going to break through the 80k barrier in 2026 considering they are expected to be a top 4 team again. Their 75k membership base is already more than double the capacity of the Gabba and there's likely thousands of Brisbane people missing out on attending AFL games every second week. Clearly there's currently high demand for AFL content within the Brisbane market. Why would you just ignore that if you're trying to promote growth in Queensland?

Just to be clear, the Lions won't be moving into the new Vic Park Stadium until 2033 and the current broadcasting rights deal ends in 2031. So hypothetically, if you started a second Brisbane AFL team in 2032 then that team would need to share the Gabba with the Lions for at least one season. That opens all kinds of possibilities if it was obvious that the second Brisbane team wasn't ready to move to Victoria Park. There's no reason why the Gabba couldn't be retained for a few extra years while the new team establishes itself, with the eventual goal to move permanently to Vic Park. I personally wouldn't do it that way because I don't think a second Brisbane team pulling 20-30k to home games at Vic Park in their first few years would be a big deal, but if that was a genuine concern for the AFL then I'm sure they could convince the QLD government to retain the Gabba for a few more years.

A second Brisbane afl team won’t be pulling 23k average from the get go like the dolphins are. Would be lucky to get a 10k average.

If you think a second Brisbane team is going to be getting 20-30k at vic park from 2032 that’s extremely optimistic and downright nonsensical thinking.

You’re looking at the current lions bandwagon, who won’t always be doing so well, and thinking oh beaut there must be all this demand for an extra 20k people to be attending lions games and on top of that all this demand for another 30k to attend games for a whole new team.

The best example to draw from is GWS. When swans were on a bandwagon getting 35k to the scg regularly and afl was going gangbusters in Sydney adding another team to capture this growing market made sense. 15 years later they’re still struggling to find relevance and even though they’re in their own stadium in a distinct area separate to the swans. And for the swans/gws there wasn’t a third team based an hour drive away.

 

[threenewpadlocks]

A second Brisbane afl team won’t be pulling 23k average from the get go like the dolphins are. Would be lucky to get a 10k average.

There is absolutely no basis for you coming up with this "10k" figure other than wishful thinking.

There's as much basis for me saying that NRL will go bankrupt by 2032.