Expansion A third team in Queensland? AFL acknowledges QLD3 as a 20th licence option

[threenewpadlocks]

A second Brisbane afl team won’t be pulling 23k average from the get go like the dolphins are. Would be lucky to get a 10k average.

There is absolutely no basis for you coming up with this "10k" figure other than wishful thinking.

There's as much basis for me saying that NRL will go bankrupt by 2032.

 

[hampton]

There is absolutely no basis for you coming up with this "10k" figure other than wishful thinking.

There's as much basis for me saying that NRL will go bankrupt by 2032.

There is a basis I already mentioned it, GWS.

In fact in Brisbane / seq there would be more competition than there was in Sydney because there was no equivalent to GC Suns when GWS came on board.

There’s literally no basis for anything other than sub 10k crowds for a third seq team at this point in time.

There’s no basis for a third seq team being successful other than wishful thinking.

 

[threenewpadlocks]

There is a basis I already mentioned it, GWS.

In fact in Brisbane / seq there would be more competition than there was in Sydney because there was no equivalent to GC Suns when GWS came on board.

There’s literally no basis for anything other than sub 10k crowds for a third seq team at this point in time.

For starters, there's already a far stronger existing interest in Aussie Rules north of Brisbane (by the presence of clubs like Aspley which don't have a parallel in Sydney, Western or otherwise), than in Western Sydney, making your comparison a poor-quality one.

 

[hampton]

GWS and Canberra is also a good example of fishing where the fish are. Canberra before gws already had a good pocket of afl interest. 15 years later that’s still the same scenario. and the interest in afl in western Sydney is still below what the interest is in Canberra despite having a dedicated team.

AFL would have had far more success had they based giants out of Canberra to begin with.

Putting another team into qld while ignoring other markets that are more ready for a team is just repeating the mistake.

 

[GC2015]

You point to the Lions' poor performance for the drop in 2011, but conveniently ignore the Lions' current form when banging on about current crowd growth.

The Lions are in dynasty only matched by the early 2000s (or possibly to be bettered). The growth of the Lions' current crowds have to be tempered with the reality that they are currently buoyed by everybody on the bandwagon.



The Lions may not need to fill out, but they should be selling out Vic Park consistently first. The Eagles have thousands paying just to be on a waitlist for a membership. If the Lions reach that level, then yeah, Brisbane would probably be ready for a second team.



What do I think? I think you're continuing to grasp at straws.

1. Suncorp is proposed to be upgraded 12k, compared to AFL's 26k upgrade
2. The Dolphins also already have a smaller, boutique stadium as their main ground
3. There's a decade between the Dolphins' entry and the proposed upgrade



It's an estimate. But it's a real risk when you do both so close.

Members aren't like-for-like with crowd numbers. 80k members, but three-gamers and even single-games make up a big chunk of that.

The Eagles have a 60k stadium with 100k members. They could probably reach 120k if the memberships allowed. A 63k stadium will be more than enough for one team in Brisbane for at least a while.



I don't think they'll hold the Gabba either. It's already slated for residential developments after the Olympics.

A second Brisbane team pulling 20-30k at Vic Park is incredibly optimistic. The Lions have been doing that as the primary team in Brisbane. A second team, playing in the exact same stadium as the Lions while they increase capacity so dramatically, has no chance of pulling that.

It's basic supply and demand.

Alright mate. I can see we're just going to keep going back and forth on this because we clearly don't agree on several points. Having said that, I think we can both agree that, as of right now in 2026, Brisbane aren't in a position to have a second AFL team. The signs of growth are good, but there's still a way to go before expansion could realistically be considered. I'm happy to agree on that and whatever happens in the future will happen. It's basically impossible to accurately predict the future when we're 7ish years away from a decision being made. For example, I would've never thought in the year 2000 that just 7 years later the AFL would confirm that the Gold Coast would be getting an AFL team. Brisbane hadn't even made their first GF at that point in time and further expansion into QLD seemed a long way off.

There is a basis I already mentioned it, GWS.

In fact in Brisbane / seq there would be more competition than there was in Sydney because there was no equivalent to GC Suns when GWS came on board.

There’s literally no basis for anything other than sub 10k crowds for a third seq team at this point in time.

There’s no basis for a third seq team being successful other than wishful thinking.

You think crowds in western Sydney are an accurate indication of what would happen if a second team was started in Brisbane? That's next level mental gymnastics. Just wow.

 

[hampton]

You think crowds in western Sydney are an accurate indication of what would happen if a second team was started in Brisbane? That's next level mental gymnastics. Just wow.

It’s the closest comparison point yes and also there’s no third team in the Sydney area to split even more of the fans up.

yeah there’s potentially more interest in afl in Brisbane than there was back then in western Sydney but those people are already following the lions, to think that there’s all these people in Brisbane just waiting for another team to support is very fanciful.

If the Brisbane2 team were getting decent crowds like 15-20k it would mean the lions crowds would also drop by 10-15k. Again what happened in Sydney, when gws came in they got about 10k crowds - which is pretty much the same amount that the swans crowds dropped simultaneously.

Best guess at what would happen if bris2 was introduced in 2032 would be lions would average 30k and bris2 12k. Which wouldn’t be a good look in a new stadium.

Instead with just lions they will push 40k average in the new stadium from the get go.

 

[threenewpadlocks]

If the Brisbane2 team were getting decent crowds like 15-20k it would mean the lions crowds would also drop by 10-15k.

Something else you've just made up.

You can't just throw random numbers and treat them like fact.

I believe that the NRL will lose $100 million this year.

 

[Macca180]

Something else you've just made up.

You can't just throw random numbers and treat them like fact.

He can. He's a troll.

They are protected species on here.

 

[hampton]

Something else you've just made up.

You can't just throw random numbers and treat them like fact.

I believe that the NRL will lose $100 million this year.

It’s not random numbers it’s numbers based on some truths and precedence. Swans were getting 34k avg crowds pre-gws and 24k post. There were other factors I’m sure for the big drop in the average crowd but for sure gws had a big part to play in that.

In my estimates I’m actually giving Brisbane and Brisbane2 5k bigger crowds than Sydney / gws had - 30k and 15k.

What is so unrealistic about that? I think some people here are having super unrealistic views that the lions could be getting 40-50k crowds regularly at vic point and having 30k crowds for a brisbane2 in 2032 - now that’s really funny.

 

[Canberra Pear]

Alright mate. I can see we're just going to keep going back and forth on this because we clearly don't agree on several points. Having said that, I think we can both agree that, as of right now in 2026, Brisbane aren't in a position to have a second AFL team. The signs of growth are good, but there's still a way to go before expansion could realistically be considered. I'm happy to agree on that and whatever happens in the future will happen. It's basically impossible to accurately predict the future when we're 7ish years away from a decision being made. For example, I would've never thought in the year 2000 that just 7 years later the AFL would confirm that the Gold Coast would be getting an AFL team. Brisbane hadn't even made their first GF at that point in time and further expansion into QLD seemed a long way off.

We both agree that Brisbane isn't ready for a second team in 2026 and that seven years is a long time in footy.

We don't know what will happen in seven years, but that's also why Brisbane 2 is such a gamble in that timeframe.

The Lions will move into Victoria Park in 2032. We don't know for sure what'll happen in the seven years after that. Growth isn't linear. We don't actually know how well the Lions crowds will be going at Victoria Park. And that's why it's a gamble.

There are unknowns in the next seven years, but Brisbane 2 has an even greater unknown. It's worth waiting to see how the Lions go at Victoria Park before pulling the trigger. Because if we've overestimated the Lions' growth and we've already got the ball rolling on the second team, we have two unhealthy teams in Brisbane rather than one stronger one.

I honestly admire your enthusiasm for a second Brisbane team, and I hope you get it down the track. But with the timing around the stadium, I just don't think Brisbane 2 is a contender for the 20th team.

 

[hampton]

We both agree that Brisbane isn't ready for a second team in 2026 and that seven years is a long time in footy.

We don't know what will happen in seven years, but that's also why Brisbane 2 is such a gamble in that timeframe.

The Lions will move into Victoria Park in 2032. We don't know for sure what'll happen in the seven years after that. Growth isn't linear. We don't actually know how well the Lions crowds will be going at Victoria Park. And that's why it's a gamble.

There are unknowns in the next seven years, but Brisbane 2 has an even greater unknown. It's worth waiting to see how the Lions go at Victoria Park before pulling the trigger. Because if we've overestimated the Lions' growth and we've already got the ball rolling on the second team, we have two unhealthy teams in Brisbane rather than one stronger one.

I honestly admire your enthusiasm for a second Brisbane team, and I hope you get it down the track. But with the timing around the stadium, I just don't think Brisbane 2 is a contender for the 20th team.

It’s also worthwhile seeing how gws goes without Canberra crowds and members before adding a Canberra team, mind you.

 

[threenewpadlocks]

It’s not random numbers it’s numbers based on some truths and precedence. Swans were getting 34k avg crowds pre-gws and 24k post. There were other factors I’m sure for the big drop in the average crowd but for sure gws had a big part to play in that.

In my estimates I’m actually giving Brisbane and Brisbane2 5k bigger crowds than Sydney / gws had - 30k and 15k.

What is so unrealistic about that? I think some people here are having super unrealistic views.

"Truth and precedence"

NRL once had a super league war that nearly sent the league bankrupt, so they will again, that's my truths and precedence.

Your "truth and precedence" do you honestly not admit is incredibly selective statistics that are not a fair representation of a story you're trying to tell, as you remove all context, meaning, timeframe, etc. for it? Thinks like stadium redevelopments, examples being a period of time, crowd numbers rebounding etc. which are all relevant context for the discussion but you just leave out because it's convenient for you?

Like obviousy, there's context to modern NRL ownership structures that make another super league war a highly unlikely event. But by me not including that context, I can simply say there's "truth an precedence for the NRL going bankrupt again this year" and use the same arguments/

 

[Canberra Pear]

It’s also worthwhile seeing how gws goes without Canberra crowds and members before adding a Canberra team, mind you.

Thanks for your input, I0nic.

This isn’t as thread about Canberra, but more than happy for the Giants to play 11 home games as soon as they can.

 

[Canberra Pear]

It’s not random numbers it’s numbers based on some truths and precedence. Swans were getting 34k avg crowds pre-gws and 24k post. There were other factors I’m sure for the big drop in the average crowd but for sure gws had a big part to play in that.

In my estimates I’m actually giving Brisbane and Brisbane2 5k bigger crowds than Sydney / gws had - 30k and 15k.

What is so unrealistic about that? I think some people here are having super unrealistic views that the lions could be getting 40-50k crowds regularly at vic point and having 30k crowds for a brisbane2 in 2032 - now that’s really funny.

The SCG's capacity was reduced for a redevelopment.

 

[hampton]

"Truth and precedence"

NRL once had a super league war that nearly sent the league bankrupt, so they will again, that's my truths and precedence.

Your "truth and precedence" do you honestly not admit is incredibly selective statistics that are not a fair representation of a story you're trying to tell, as you remove all context, meaning, timeframe, etc. for it? Thinks like stadium redevelopments, examples being a period of time, crowd numbers rebounding etc. which are all relevant context for the discussion but you just leave out because it's convenient for you?

Like obviousy, there's context to modern NRL ownership structures that make another super league war a highly unlikely event. But by me not including that context, I can simply say there's "truth an precedence for the NRL going bankrupt again this year" and use the same arguments/

“Incredibly selective statistics” you reckon?

I’m literally comparing the crowds of a more established expansion team with a new expansion team in a northern state, which is the exact same scenario - it’s the same situation and the closest we can get to some lessons learned.

By ignoring that and just going for ‘wishful thinking’ is asinine.

Why do you keep bringing up nrl and super league can you be on topic or ill report you.

 

[hampton]

The SCG's capacity was reduced for a redevelopment.

4-6k seats were impacted at most and the crowds didn’t bounce back immediately it took years to get back to 34k averages - just now they’re getting back to what they were getting pre gws regardless of the upgrade to the scg.

 

[Giant YoYo]

There is a basis I already mentioned it, GWS.

In fact in Brisbane / seq there would be more competition than there was in Sydney because there was no equivalent to GC Suns when GWS came on board.

There’s literally no basis for anything other than sub 10k crowds for a third seq team at this point in time.

There’s no basis for a third seq team being successful other than wishful thinking.

Can you please stop acting like you know anything about football in Western Sydney, let alone Brisbane? Your comparisons are poor and football in SE QLD has always been stronger than Western Sydney.

You trying to weave the Giants in here looks like a desperate attempt to make a point to make it look like you know what you're talking about.

It really isn't necessary for you to tell us how long Giants have been around for or the "unmitigated disaster". It has been discussed at length.

The more you mention Brisbane and the Giants, the less it seems you know what you're talking about.

 

[hampton]

Can you please stop acting like you know anything about football in Western Sydney, let alone Brisbane? Your comparisons are poor and football in SE QLD has always been stronger than Western Sydney.

You trying to weave the Giants in here looks like a desperate attempt to make a point to make it look like you know what you're talking about.

It really isn't necessary for you to tell us how long Giants have been around for or the "unmitigated disaster". It has been discussed at length.

The more you mention Brisbane and the Giants the less it seems you know what you're talking about.

Yeah let’s not even try to learn from gws and draw any comparisons or lessons, which is another second expansion team in a non-traditional market. Not similar scenarios at all.

 

[threenewpadlocks]

“Incredibly selective statistics” you reckon?

I’m literally comparing the crowds of a more established expansion team with a new expansion team in a northern state, which is the exact same scenario - it’s the same situation and the closest we can get to some lessons learned.

By ignoring that and just going for ‘wishful thinking’ is asinine.

Why do you keep bringing up nrl and super league can you be on topic or ill report you.

If you don't mention things like a redevelopment impacting capacity, and if you don't put crowd statistics into their proper context about how they rebound and recover over a longer period of time (because if we're assessing how the impact of one thing existing upon another it obviously makes sense to look at things over a period of time, because we care about them over a period of literally more than one year), you're being selective in your statistics to be biased and obviously trolling.

If you want people to take you seriously - even if you're biased - be smarter about it. Your bad faith is obvious here, if even if your pro-NRL trolling you actually want to achieve something and be convincing, you got to make your bad faith less obvious.

I'm a bit confused as to what you're trying to achieve here, because you don't even seem self-aware enough to realise that you're not actually all that convincing in your arguments because people aren't actually all that stupid and they're intelligent enough to put back in the context that you seem to think you're clever (without actually being clever) in removing.

 

[threenewpadlocks]

I’m literally making the same argument as Canberra Pear has been trying to make in here, ie that Brisbane2 isn’t ready, and I’m using some actual data drawing back on GWS entering the Sydney market. Is that ok for you?

You don't think a person with "Canberra" in their name and has the most prominent voice on and off of BigFooty in making Canberra the Team 20 could also be a bit biased in putting down the idea of other Team 20 locations too? Wow, colour me shocked if that's the case. I never knew a guy in Canberra with Canberra in their username could be so pro-Canberra biased too.

 

[Canberra Pear]

You don't think a person with "Canberra" in their name and has the most prominent voice on and off of BigFooty in making Canberra the Team 20 could also be a bit biased in putting down the idea of other Team 20 locations too? Wow, colour me shocked if that's the case. I never knew a guy in Canberra with Canberra in their username could be so pro-Canberra biased too.

Biased, yes, but I honestly try to be as balanced as I can in my assessments.

And I truly believe that a third Perth team and Canberra are the only viable options for the 20th team (barring some miraculous government investment for the NT).

I don't put a second Brisbane team down because I see them as competition; I genuinely don't think the timing works for them as the 20th team.

 

[threenewpadlocks]

What’s the price of fish in china got to do with me joining this thread? Oh I know, you just don’t like me posting here. Too bad little boy, keep going.

To humour you, I didn’t realise that forum member “Canberra Pear” was the preeminent Australian subject matter expert for all things afl expansion, I must have missed The Australian op-ed on him. Forgive me.

Be completely unconvincing in your arguments, and when you get called out on it, lash out.

Says a lot.

 

[Giant YoYo]

Yeah let’s not even try to learn from gws and draw any comparisons or lessons, which is another second expansion team in a non-traditional market. Not similar scenarios at all.

Are you trying to tell me Northern Brisbane and Sunshine coast:

• is as diverse as Western Sydney
• it has as many professional teams from another winter sport in the same area as western Sydney
• Has the same or less generational football families than Western Sydney
• Has the same/similar number of football participants or support as Western Sydney

I don't believe you.

It's far fetched, at best, and so are your inferences.

 

[Canberra Pear]

I’m literally making the same argument as Canberra Pear has been trying to make in here, ie that Brisbane2 isn’t ready, and I’m using some actual data drawing back on GWS entering the Sydney market. Is that ok for you?

Maybe it doesn’t paint the best picture that you want to have for Brisbane2 but that’s my opinion based on data and a shared opinion by many others on here too.

Oh but im an nrl troll, yet without even bringing up anything non-afl related here. You’re the troll.

No offence, but the source says a lot.

You're known to mock AFL on LU, so even if you and I are saying the exact same thing, it's going to be taken with a bit of mistrust.

 

[hampton]

No offence, but the source says a lot.

You're known to mock AFL on LU, so even if you and I are saying the exact same thing, it's going to be taken with a bit of mistrust.

No offence, but I don’t have time to google and research forum members and try to find out their other interests and views. I’m just having a discussion in a thread based on the information in front of me. Maybe some people in here have too much time on their hands.

If you’re bringing up something against me based on my religious interests, my other hobbies or my socio-economic details you researched online then that’s on you. It’s a shit move.