Coach Justin Longmuir Pt 2

[swanny1234]

I just don’t get the Sean Darcy stubbornness about him. Would love to know the reason he has to play him underdone when cox could have an influence on game day. Its not even like Darcy is in our top 10-15 best players

I could understand it to a certain point with Reidy last year just being a total crab, but they brought Cox in for exactly this reason right? You don't bring a 34 year old to the club for no apparent reason.

 

[Docker82]

I just don’t get the Sean Darcy stubbornness about him. Would love to know the reason he has to play him underdone when cox could have an influence on game day. Its not even like Darcy is in our top 10-15 best players

If he plays like he has in the past he's 100% in our best 10 players IMO.

Having said that less than 50% game time isn't good enough. The alternative is Mason Cox now not Liam Reidy.

He should have played WAFL last week. We'll find out tomorrow evening if he's progressed enough to make a decent impact.

 

[Purple Suit]

The AFL goes too far the other way… clubs give coaches way too much leeway for poor performances. Even JLo aside, how the hell is Voss still in a job?

I agree the EPL is too ruthless, somewhere in the middle would be best.

The AFL use to sack a lot more coaches and the teams who sacked a lot seemed to be the crap ones. Soft caps also mean you can’t afford to be too trigger happy or you gimp the club.

Stability seems to be the only way to get a Dynasty for example. No one has walked into a built team and won more than 1 flag in the modern era (Chris Scott the closest but took him 10 years between drinks).

 

[swanny1234]

The AFL use to sack a lot more coaches and the teams who sacked a lot seemed to be the crap ones. Soft caps also mean you can’t afford to be too trigger happy or you gimp the club.

Stability seems to be the only way to get a Dynasty for example. No one has walked into a built team and won more than 1 flag in the modern era (Chris Scott the closest but took him 10 years between drinks).

Stability is great, if you've got the right man in charge, no one expects them to win a flag every year, but the good stable coaches (Scott, Fagan) do compete at the upper end of the table year after year........ if you don't, stability is just sitting in that 6th to 12th region treading water year after year.

 

[Purple Suit]

Stability is great, if you've got the right man in charge, no one expects them to win a flag every year, but the good stable coaches (Scott, Fagan) do compete at the upper end of the table year after year........ if you don't, stability is just sitting in that 6th to 12th region treading water year after year.

It took Fagan 4 seasons to win a final, same as Jlo. Lions had huge finals question marks till the talent from the academies & trading pushed them over the edge. We’ve got a chance with our recruiting, talent development and contract procurement.

You don’t know if they are the flag coach, till they are. Let’s give him a chance this year rather than hand ring over every loss like we should sack him Monday.

 

[The Feeder Club]

It took Fagan 4 seasons to win a final, same as Jlo. Lions had huge finals question marks till the talent from the academies & trading pushed them over the edge. We’ve got a chance with our recruiting, talent development and contract procurement.

You don’t know if they are the flag coach, till they are. Let’s give him a chance this year rather than hand ring over every loss like we should sack him Monday.

It might have taken Fagan four years to win a final, but he didn't spend 3 years after rhat not winning another one, he went on a sustained upward run.
I totally agree with the uselessness of hand wringing and sack the coach calls after every loss, everyone needs to live with the reality that he will be our coach all year. But he really has no alignment with Fagan's record

 

[swanny1234]

It took Fagan 4 seasons to win a final, same as Jlo. Lions had huge finals question marks till the talent from the academies & trading pushed them over the edge. We’ve got a chance with our recruiting, talent development and contract procurement.

You don’t know if they are the flag coach, till they are. Let’s give him a chance this year rather than hand ring over every loss like we should sack him Monday.

The year after Fagan won a final, did they then miss finals the following season? I'm pretty sure they made a Grand Final the following season - we went the other way.

 

[Purple Suit]

It might have taken Fagan four years to win a final, but he didn't spend 3 years after rhat not winning another one, he went on a sustained upward run.
I totally agree with the uselessness of hand wringing and sack the coach calls after every loss, everyone needs to live with the reality that he will be our coach all year. But he really has no alignment with Fagan's record

Actually I was wrong, it took Jlo 3 seasons to win one so he was better than Fagan. He then missed finals for 2 seasons. Lions blew a lot of chances in finals with multiple straight set losses, blowing a Gabba GF, a 1 point loss (sounds familiar).

My point is sometimes it all clicks and you don't bake a cake by starting again all the time instead of letting it cook.

 

[swanny1234]

Actually I was wrong, it took Jlo 3 seasons to win one so he was better than Fagan. He then missed finals for 2 seasons. Lions blew a lot of chances in finals with multiple straight set losses, blowing a Gabba GF, a 1 point loss (sounds familiar).

My point is sometimes it all clicks and you don't bake a cake by starting again all the time instead of letting it cook.

You also don't leave the cake in the oven for so long it dries out or gets burnt.... I understand your point, I just don't think it's a very good cake.

 

[Mags98]

The year after Fagan won a final, did they then miss finals the following season? I'm pretty sure they made a Grand Final the following season - we went the other way.

no took them like 5 years to make the granny, plenty of close finals game experience for them in that period though

 

[estibador]

Actually I was wrong, it took Jlo 3 seasons to win one so he was better than Fagan. He then missed finals for 2 seasons. Lions blew a lot of chances in finals with multiple straight set losses, blowing a Gabba GF, a 1 point loss (sounds familiar).

My point is sometimes it all clicks and you don't bake a cake by starting again all the time instead of letting it cook.

At least the Lions were gaining invaluable finals experience to help battle-harden them while they were losing those finals.

Those two years we missed finals completely were so costly for the development of this group.

 

[Purple Suit]

The year after Fagan won a final, did they then miss finals the following season? I'm pretty sure they made a Grand Final the following season - we went the other way.

They went out in straight sets from 4th the year after. I wonder how many Brisbane fans were calling for Fages head then the year after blowing the home prelim into a home GF? 1 finals win in 5 seasons at that point.

Then finished 6th (behind us) in 2022 and made a prelim and then got rolling with their finals record. Only just beat Richmond too in the elimination final and could have easily gone the other way. Such small margins sometimes.

 

[The Feeder Club]

Actually I was wrong, it took Jlo 3 seasons to win one so he was better than Fagan. He then missed finals for 2 seasons. Lions blew a lot of chances in finals with multiple straight set losses, blowing a Gabba GF, a 1 point loss (sounds familiar).

My point is sometimes it all clicks and you don't bake a cake by starting again all the time instead of letting it cook.

I posted the data a while back and he has an extremely modest record in terms of finals for a bloke that has coached over 100 games. Extremely. Anything is possible but the historical statistics would suggest he isn't going to make it.

As I said though, this was an argument for the end of last season, or the end of the season before that, when in my opinion we should have looked elsewhere. Now it is 2026 and he is still our coach and he will be all year, so let's back him in and hope he'll prove me wrong.

 

[Kapow!!!]

At least the Lions were gaining invaluable finals experience to help battle-harden them while they were losing those finals.

Those two years we missed finals completely were so costly for the development of this group.

It's what makes 2024 so utterly unforgivable. We really, really missed a valuable opportunity that teams like the Hawks have jumped at.

For the record the Lions went:

2019: Straight Sets at home - Amazing draw, young list breaking out over achieved with a Top 2 finish. Dynasty side pumped them in their first final. Lost by under a kick against a much more battle hardened GWS side.

2020: Beat the dynasty Richmond side at home in a QF, got pantsed in a home prelim vs a battle hardened and well coached Geelong side that took it to them

2021: Straight sets away to Melbourne in their flag year and home to the other grand finalist Bulldogs.

2022: Finished 6th. Fell over the line against Richmond in the last final of the dynasty and pumped a brittle Melbourne side away to make the prelims (before being belted by the Cats)

2023: Comfortably handled Port and Carlton at home after finishing second. Lost a heartbreaking GF.

2024: Finished 5th. Only second side to win the flag from outside top 4.

2025: Played all 4 weeks of finals, at the G for 3 of them to win the flag.


They had a LOT of finals under their belt, with an uptick in 2022 where their finals form clicked, before they put a Grand Final season together.

 

[BREATHLESS_987]

If we're going to look at Fagan and the Lions - it's only fair we also look at the other recent dynasty in Richmond and Hardwick -

2010 - 15th
2011 - 12th
2012 - 12th
2013 - 5th - lost elim final
2014 - 8th - lost elim final
2015 - 5th - lost elim final
2016 - 13th
2017 - FLAG, dynasty etc

Compare to JL and Freo, 10 years later

2020 - 12th
2021 - 11th
2022 - 6th - lost semi final
2023 - 14th
2024 - 10th
2025 - 8th, lost elim

I'm firmly in the not 100% sold camp on JL, but the similarities are striking. The noise out of Richmond to get rid of Hardwick in 2016 was deafening. And just because Richmond did it, doesn't mean we will, but it can be done.

 

[The Feeder Club]

If we're going to look at Fagan and the Lions - it's only fair we also look at the other recent dynasty in Richmond and Hardwick -

2010 - 15th
2011 - 12th
2012 - 12th
2013 - 5th - lost elim final
2014 - 8th - lost elim final
2015 - 5th - lost elim final
2016 - 13th
2017 - FLAG, dynasty etc

Compare to JL and Freo, 10 years later

2020 - 12th
2021 - 11th
2022 - 6th - lost semi final
2023 - 14th
2024 - 10th
2025 - 8th, lost elim

I'm firmly in the not 100% sold camp on JL, but the similarities are striking. The noise out of Richmond to get rid of Hardwick in 2016 was deafening. And just because Richmond did it, doesn't mean we will, but it can be done.

Since we joined the AFL 30 years ago there have been 19 individual premiership coaches.

18 of the 19 have made a prelim final (not even won a prelim, just made one) in their first five years as coach. Hardwick is the only one that hasn't.

It's OK to raise Hardwick as a template for Longmuir, I get it that people desperately want our man to succeed, I want him to succeed because I want a flag, but the harsh reality is almost all premiership coaches have some measure of success within five years of starting in the job. In fact, the majority of coaches that survive to coach 100 games make a prelim in that time, only a few including Longmuir have been given the grace of 100 games without even making a prelim.

If we have another Hardwick on our hands, yippee. More likely we don't unfortunately

 

[Outshined]

For every Hardwick, there's a Cameron or a Ratten. Very good at certain aspects like player development but they consistently fell short in other key areas.

The parralels to Hardwick were more interesting a few years ago, especially after 2022. 3 seasons have passed since then for the sum total of one finals loss. I also really want Longmuir to get it right and he's certainly not been helped by an imbalanced, overly green list at times. That being said, the weight of evidence keeps stacking up that he might not be the one to push the group into that next tier up.

Still early days of course. We made it into the 8 after a much worse RD1 performance this time last year but the clock's ticking.

 

[Purple Suit]

Since we joined the AFL 30 years ago there have been 19 individual premiership coaches.

18 of the 19 have made a prelim final (not even won a prelim, just made one) in their first five years as coach. Hardwick is the only one that hasn't.

It's OK to raise Hardwick as a template for Longmuir, I get it that people desperately want our man to succeed, I want him to succeed because I want a flag, but the harsh reality is almost all premiership coaches have some measure of success within five years of starting in the job. In fact, the majority of coaches that survive to coach 100 games make a prelim in that time, only a few including Longmuir have been given the grace of 100 games without even making a prelim.

If we have another Hardwick on our hands, yippee. More likely we don't unfortunately

The comp has changed though, especially in the last 10 seasons since the expansion clubs, free agency and soft caps came in. The data will slowly become more forgiving on coaches lasting longer since it takes more time to build a premiership side as it's harder to win. Clarko has had 5 years with North, Nicks the same as Jlo, Voss on his 5th year.

Jlo is on his last chances but the bar is still the same and he will continue to coach unless we miss finals (top 8) or the players revolt.

 

[PrancingPony]

I think it's a sort of nuanced situation with Longmuir, I just don't know when they're going to sack a guy who by all reports is adored by the players, every player who's spoken on him has nothing but glowing things to say, board seem very happy with him too.

Until one of those groups becomes unhappy, I just don't see a situation where he's getting sacked. Not playing finals this year could be that straw that breaks the camel's back, but if we continue to play finals football, I don't see him getting the boot.

 

[Dockeroo]

I think it's a sort of nuanced situation with Longmuir, I just don't know when they're going to sack a guy who by all reports is adored by the players, every player who's spoken on him has nothing but glowing things to say, board seem very happy with him too.

Until one of those groups becomes unhappy, I just don't see a situation where he's getting sacked. Not playing finals this year could be that straw that breaks the camel's back, but if we continue to play finals football, I don't see him getting the boot.

I wouldn’t believe jack shit out of the players.
Unless they absolutely detest him - why else are they ever gonna say only that he’s a great guy, great coach etc etc?

Same applies for every club. In reality we have no idea. It’s likely some players love him, some are ok with him and some probably don’t like him.

You hardly expect Brayshaw or Serong to say ah yeah JL is ok but if we could replace him with Chris Scott that would be even better?!
They could easily think that privately but never ever going to say it.

If we waste another year in the wasteland of mid table then he’s gone.

 

[PrancingPony]

I wouldn’t believe jack shit out of the players.
Unless they absolutely detest him - why else are they ever gonna say only that he’s a great guy, great coach etc etc?

Same applies for every club. In reality we have no idea. It’s likely some players love him, some are ok with him and some probably don’t like him.

You hardly expect Brayshaw or Serong to say ah yeah JL is ok but if we could replace him with Chris Scott that would be even better?!
They could easily think that privately but never ever going to say it.

If we waste another year in the wasteland of mid table then he’s gone.

Fair enough, I see what you're saying. Although I imagine a lot of the players wouldn't have signed long term deals with the club if they weren't happy with the overall direction.

But you are right.

 

[mattis117]

Since we joined the AFL 30 years ago there have been 19 individual premiership coaches.

18 of the 19 have made a prelim final (not even won a prelim, just made one) in their first five years as coach. Hardwick is the only one that hasn't.

It's OK to raise Hardwick as a template for Longmuir, I get it that people desperately want our man to succeed, I want him to succeed because I want a flag, but the harsh reality is almost all premiership coaches have some measure of success within five years of starting in the job. In fact, the majority of coaches that survive to coach 100 games make a prelim in that time, only a few including Longmuir have been given the grace of 100 games without even making a prelim.

If we have another Hardwick on our hands, yippee. More likely we don't unfortunately

JL aside, what your positing here is a logical fallacy. You're using historical data that is not relevant to the current situation to make a future prediction. To use an analogy, it's like trying to predict Perth weather by being provided historical data on Madagascar. They're relatively close by and similar in latitude but your predictions are inherently flawed.

Having never been done before is never an argument against any proposed action.

Analysis must include relevant data only. Winning premierships is much easier from Victoria and a coach that inherets a developed list will naturally have an advantage probabilistically, McRae and early Scott being examples here.

These historical standards fall down with JL because we're based in Perth and he has done the developing all himself with the assistants.

This season is without doubt the one where it is pre lim or bust for Justin. Taking the argument into what other coaches have done is a waste of time because no other club has had to do it like Fremantle. That is not a JL thing, that is an AFL thing.

 

[chaosball32]

In the past 20 seasons we’ve only had 3 different head coaches. Not counting interim coaches, other clubs to have 3 or less in that time period are:

• Collingwood
• Geelong
• Hawthorn
• Richmond
• Sydney
• West Coast
• Western Bulldogs

(Not counting GWS as they didn’t exist 20 seasons ago)

All clubs who have won premierships in that time period, all clubs who have had sustained periods of contention.

And then there is us. The only club in that group not to win a premiership and outside of the first few years under Ross have been largely irrelevant in that time period.

JL is coaching his 133rd game this weekend, surpassing Ken Judge to go into 2nd place all-time for most games coached without making a preliminary final in the AFL era. 1st place is Brett Ratten

Brett Ratten

Age

54

Ht

184cm

Wt

88kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

22.4

5star

K

12.1

4star

HB

10.3

5star

M

2.9

3star

T

3.0

5star

No current season stats available

D

26.4

5star

K

13.8

5star

HB

12.6

5star

M

3.4

4star

T

1.6

4star

, JL is two seasons away from clinching the gold medal.

However if we are talking about stints at one club, then JL is 1st all-time for most games coached without a prelim, as Ratten only coached 120 games during his stint at Carlton, and a further 68 with St Kilda.

If Carlton or Essendon are examples of clubs hot potatoing their coaches then we are the other extreme where we hold onto coaches way past their expiry date. Even with Ross we probably held onto him for a season, possibly two seasons too long.

People can keep comparing Longmuir to Hardwick or Fagan (although Fagan made a prelim in his 4th season and has made finals every year since 2019 so not sure how he’s comparable to JL at all) but there is a much stronger likelihood that JL is just another Ratten.

 

[The Feeder Club]

JL aside, what your positing here is a logical fallacy. You're using historical data that is not relevant to the current situation to make a future prediction. To use an analogy, it's like trying to predict Perth weather by being provided historical data on Madagascar. They're relatively close by and similar in latitude but your predictions are inherently flawed.

Having never been done before is never an argument against any proposed action.

Analysis must include relevant data only. Winning premierships is much easier from Victoria and a coach that inherets a developed list will naturally have an advantage probabilistically, McRae and early Scott being examples here.

These historical standards fall down with JL because we're based in Perth and he has done the developing all himself with the assistants.

This season is without doubt the one where it is pre lim or bust for Justin. Taking the argument into what other coaches have done is a waste of time because no other club has had to do it like Fremantle. That is not a JL thing, that is an AFL thing.

All I will say in reply is two things.

1. if you follow the thread, it wasn't me that started the discussion today by bringing up another coach's record this morning

2. As I have said before in response to similar comments, no predictive data model is perfect, and this one is far far from it. It is simple 2x2 table stuff using data from less than 50 coaches. Do not take it to be anyting more than what it is. Yet it still beats the hell out of anecdote, or 'them feels', which is what most people use as evidence when they tell me Longmuir is going to win us a flag. There's an open invitation to anyone that wants to create a multivariate prediction model using list age, km travelled, injury stats, coach's eye colour and anything else you want to model as possible predictors of success. I look forward to reading it

 

[dominguez]

I think everyone here, regardless of their stance on the coach, does ultimately want to see Freo do well.

I do get annoyed when people accuse you of not being a real fan when you’re negative, being a supporter isn’t blindly being positive even when you can see things aren’t going well.

I agree.

It was so obvious that Connolly wasn't up to the job and we wasted our first real opportunity for a flag. He was replaced by Harvey who was also terrible. The same mistake is being repeated here with JLo.

Our list is so good that it would take a disaster for us to miss the top 10. If the majority of our list stay fit we'll be top 6. Then the baord and Garlo will keep backing JLo for a couple more years then we'll be starting again with a new coach in 2029 or 2030 when the guys who are mid 20's now will be pushing 30 and then we'll be rebuilding again.

If JLo gets us to a prelim this year and proves me wrong then great. But the benchmark should be set really high this year otherwise he needs to go IMO.