Who creates betting markets in Australia?

[chrisdon16]

More specifically, AFL. I've always been intrigued as to who or what company creates betting markets and lines that then funnel to all the bookmakers each Monday. A few years ago, when I first got into handicapping I naively assumed each bookmaker created their own lines. Always wanted to find this out and find it fascinating as to what "they" are doing to create the lines. Most likely just a ball park figure as they wouldn't necessarily care too much as they want bets on both sides of the markets.

 

[Jugada]

Pretty sure most of the majors do put up their own lines for AFL and then lesser books copy/adjust

 

[benji21]

When i used to work with a couple. They used to copy of the tab. But that has since changed. I think jugada is right the majors would have their own but would have a look around to make sure they aren't to far out.

 

[Jan Juc]

Enter Brett2468

 

[Lensen]

No official or insider knowledge behind this, just how I view it.

Rec books - Sports, Crown, Lads and the like - open lookaheads a week ahead of the round to come based off their own trader knowledge, which as it tends to be limited means it opens with quite small limits. Then the next round happens, and they'll make adjustments based on how teams went and if there is any weight of money, noting that it probably won't take too much money to change these lookaheads

Then Monday of the week before the round more and more books will start to open based on where these lookaheads have finished after the week before, without too much variation. TAB will open around 11-12ish and will tend to put their own flavour on the lookaheads - ie will be happy to go up a couple of points either side - and then the others slowly tend to fall in line.

Monday/Tuesday really takes * all to move markets as the limits are quite low. Wednesday you'll see Topsport open up their markets and start to take bigger bets; then around lunchtime Pinny tend to ape Topsport's markets with a few exceptions with low limits for them (although higher than most Aus books) and they basically dictate the market from there based on $$ flows - if Pinny move eventually all other Aus books will move that direction, some quicker than others

Totals pretty much the same although often Monday/Tuesday totals are pretty much just guesses that take * all $$ to move - Monday/Tuesday totals are probably the softest and easiest to beat markets in the game but hard to get worthwhile $$ on. Still easier to move totals Wednesday-Thursday than it is lines as Pinny don't tend to open totals until game day (or occasionally will go up the day before)

So TLDR rec books set the market early with low limits, generally some semblance of markets beaten into some level of efficiency by Wednesday (Friday for totals) and then the Pinny moves dictate the entire market from there

 

[chrisdon16]

Great post Lensen

 

[Jimmy69r]

But how do they actually come up with the lines? Are they playing computer simulations 100K times and then using this avg. for their lines