Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2017 Draft Almanac

[HalAlaric]

Hi KM,
I understand its way too early to tell but how do you currently see Noah Balta going and will Liam Ryan be picked up in national draft or is he more of a rookie prospect?
cheers

 

[Dan87]

re. champs

Would really dig some reports of Nick Blakey or a report at the end on him? probably get some clicks on espn

Few clubs keen!

 

[Knightmare]

Just a question re the KPF in this draft... id have thought watching the u17's last year that this draft would be considered more KPF heavy than average and was looking a very good draft ..is that in your opinion shaping up as factual or is it settling into a more standard year with questions over the depth at this stage... and then most likely post draft more names appear and it becomes a little deeper.. ie.. as discussed if player like Brander become KPD rather than forwards.

By the way ..have you and your contacts at espn ever considered a podcast? The road to the draft seems to gather listeners , id think a Knightmare Podcast would gather them as well... special guests , perhaps other respected u18 commentators?

It is a more KPF heavy draft than normal. There is top end strength and overall depth of talls broadly. - Key forward, key defence and ruck.

Overall though it is a well below average draft strength with many fewer options in other positions and a reduced quality top to bottom.

There will be names late/rookie as with every year. I think many of those good ones might be top-agers though with several really performing in the state leagues and TAC Cup.

A podcast is an interesting idea. Thanks for bringing it up, I'm always interested to hear what others would have interest in hearing from me. Have not considered it. I'm time poor and do have a Monday-Friday job beyond writing for ESPN, but I'm always open to opportunities and doing extras. A live Q+A I expect I'll do again this year and in a few weeks I'll be doing another different piece beyond my weekly pieces and monthly power rankings.

Funnily, I've never taken the time to listen to an AFL draft related podcast, so I wouldn't have a clue how any of the other websites format them or what they cover. I was involved in one a few years back talking to Derek Hine for the Collingwood board - 2014 I believe it would have been from what I can best recall where I asked him several questions that interested me at the time.

If I was to expand out and if I had the time, I'd probably look towards some kind of sports debate segment (maybe video, maybe audio) where I debate draft or trade ideas in something like an ESPN First Take or Undisputed on FS1 style. Rather than a generic interview or whatever that the next website would do, that would be more so my style.

 

[Knightmare]

Hi KM,
I understand its way too early to tell but how do you currently see Noah Balta going and will Liam Ryan be picked up in national draft or is he more of a rookie prospect?
cheers

Noah Balta is playing a lot of ruck, but can also play key forward or key defence.

He's going well enough to get drafted but his performances aren't to a first round standard, so he probably goes lower than my personal rating of his talent. His development over the course of the season will be key to his draft position.

Liam Ryan is a chance again this year. He's continuing to improve, so he has to again come into the mix given his talent. Sambono from NT Thunder may be as a mature age general forward be taken ahead of him, so again, no guarantees for Ryan as per last year. But I'd advocate his selection.

re. champs

Would really dig some reports of Nick Blakey or a report at the end on him? probably get some clicks on espn

Few clubs keen!

I won't bring him up in my weekly piece as I'm relatively limited in how long I can make my pieces + he wasn't one of the standouts.

I will however as I know you've been a long time reader share some Blakey notes from Sunday here and now.

Blakey had 11 disposals for the match (20min quarters, no time on).

On the negative, there was a play in the first quarter where he leaped for mark but ball went straight through his hands - his hands on that play were the equivalent of an Auskickers hands - not getting the two hands together to take it. I hope and trust that was a one off blue.

Other than that play, I noted a clean ground ball pickup + an intercept mark. Not much else to note of him in this game.

I've seen snipets of Blakey playing v NT U18 and he looked much better there in that game when he played forward. He's a nice height at 194cm already, will need to get stronger. But for a bottom ager, he looked very draftable for next year and is one to keep track of over the next 18 months.

 

[briztoon]

It is a more KPF heavy draft than normal. There is top end strength and overall depth of talls broadly. - Key forward, key defence and ruck.

Overall though it is a well below average draft strength with many fewer options in other positions and a reduced quality top to bottom.

There will be names late/rookie as with every year. I think many of those good ones might be top-agers though with several really performing in the state leagues and TAC Cup.

A podcast is an interesting idea. Thanks for bringing it up, I'm always interested to hear what others would have interest in hearing from me. Have not considered it. I'm time poor and do have a Monday-Friday job beyond writing for ESPN, but I'm always open to opportunities and doing extras. A live Q+A I expect I'll do again this year and in a few weeks I'll be doing another different piece beyond my weekly pieces and monthly power rankings.

Funnily, I've never taken the time to listen to an AFL draft related podcast, so I wouldn't have a clue how any of the other websites format them or what they cover. I was involved in one a few years back talking to Derek Hine for the Collingwood board - 2014 I believe it would have been from what I can best recall where I asked him several questions that interested me at the time.

If I was to expand out and if I had the time, I'd probably look towards some kind of sports debate segment (maybe video, maybe audio) where I debate draft or trade ideas in something like an ESPN First Take or Undisputed on FS1 style. Rather than a generic interview or whatever that the next website would do, that would be more so my style.

I do not know if this is true any more. I know it was very much the view last year heading in to this year, and looking at how many talls are in the 2017 AFL academy.

But as Twomey said in his podcast today, many have not come on as much as people would have hoped/expected, and the first round is looking more and more midfielder heavy. And Twomey's views are heavily influenced from talking to recruiters at match days. Todays comments were made on the back of talking to recruiters at the weekends U18 trial games.

I do not know what an average draft looks like in terms of talls being drafted in the first round and over all. There were only 3 drafted in the first round last year, and 7 drafted in the first round in 2015. This year might see 4 or 5, 5 or 6 depending on whether Will Sutherland declares for AFL or not.

Still, the U18 champs are yet to be played, and TAC cup finals, so more players might stand up and push in to first round consideration.

 

[Chris25]

I do not know if this is true any more. I know it was very much the view last year heading in to this year, and looking at how many talls are in the 2017 AFL academy.

It's not a strong key forward draft at all.

 

[Knightmare]

I do not know if this is true any more. I know it was very much the view last year heading in to this year, and looking at how many talls are in the 2017 AFL academy.

But as Twomey said in his podcast today, many have not come on as much as people would have hoped/expected, and the first round is looking more and more midfielder heavy. And Twomey's views are heavily influenced from talking to recruiters at match days. Todays comments were made on the back of talking to recruiters at the weekends U18 trial games.

I do not know what an average draft looks like in terms of talls being drafted in the first round and over all. There were only 3 drafted in the first round last year, and 7 drafted in the first round in 2015. This year might see 4 or 5, 5 or 6 depending on whether Will Sutherland declares for AFL or not.

Still, the U18 champs are yet to be played, and TAC cup finals, so more players might stand up and push in to first round consideration.

My view to the strength of this years talls broadly is likely warped by how ordinary everyone else looks, but I'm seeing the talent, even without the production being there at this stage.

For more on this so I'm not repeating myself read my following response to Chris25..

It's not a strong key forward draft at all.

For this draft to be a poor draft for key forwards Brander and Balta would both need to develop into key defenders and Hayes, Ballenden and Coleman-Jones all develop into ruckmen and Wooller a midfielder. While all that is possible, that's a pretty good group of talls by contrast to the others available this year. Then you've got the depth with Morrisby, McLean, McCartin and various big bodied ruckmen who can push forward and take a contested grab. There are both the top end and depth names this year for mine.

And that's before looking at key defenders.

Anyone would be right to dispute the best positions of these players, or claim that we haven't seen the standard of performance we had hoped coming into the season from the larger majority of these. While that may be so, the talent is still there with this years talls with several of those developable players.

 

[Chris25]

For this draft to be a poor draft for key forwards Brander and Balta would both need to develop into key defenders and Hayes, Ballenden and Coleman-Jones all develop into ruckmen and Wooller a midfielder. While all that is possible, that's a pretty good group of talls by contrast to the others available this year. Then you've got the depth with Morrisby, McLean, McCartin and various big bodied ruckmen who can push forward and take a contested grab. There are both the top end and depth names this year for mine.

And that's before looking at key defenders.

Anyone would be right to dispute the best positions of these players, or claim that we haven't seen the standard of performance we had hoped coming into the season from the larger majority of these. While that may be so, the talent is still there with this years talls with several of those developable players.

The best key forward in the draft is a cricketer. That says it all.

I think Brander and Balta are already better suited to playing as defenders. Neither have dominated to the level that you'd want from a first round key forward. Both seem better players when given the chance to run, and Brander given the chance to read the play and distribute the ball. Hayes has always been a better ruckman for me, and Coleman-Jones could head that way too given his extra growth this year. If not, I think he and Ballenden are both limited as forward prospects and are best suited to a #2 forward and part time ruck role.

Wooller is undersized, McLean hasn't come on this year as hoped. Kreuger has stalled a bit too, not having been settled into a position. Oscar Allen has potential, but he's not really ideal size - even though his marking makes up for that.

And I'm pretty sure you have a theory that key forwards should be drafted in the first round, or not at all? I think it's a good draft for key defenders, but the key forwards have question marks and few shape as guaranteed prospects for me.

 

[Knightmare]

The best key forward in the draft is a cricketer. That says it all.

I think Brander and Balta are already better suited to playing as defenders. Neither have dominated to the level that you'd want from a first round key forward. Both seem better players when given the chance to run, and Brander given the chance to read the play and distribute the ball. Hayes has always been a better ruckman for me, and Coleman-Jones could head that way too given his extra growth this year. If not, I think he and Ballenden are both limited as forward prospects and are best suited to a #2 forward and part time ruck role.

Wooller is undersized, McLean hasn't come on this year as hoped. Kreuger has stalled a bit too, not having been settled into a position. Oscar Allen has potential, but he's not really ideal size - even though his marking makes up for that.

And I'm pretty sure you have a theory that key forwards should be drafted in the first round, or not at all? I think it's a good draft for key defenders, but the key forwards have question marks and few shape as guaranteed prospects for me.

Your view given that justification is more than fair enough, though with Balta I would interject that he has had little chance forward, playing mostly ruck for Calder. Brander was also going pretty well last year up forward, so I'm not discounting those chances either.

I'm mostly based on draft history in the take key forwards in the first round camp. There are every now and then exceptions. Much of the time these will be mature agers or players let go too soon by clubs. But it's a position certainly about superiority of talent with the combination of talent, production and rate of improvement the three critical variables to consider when drafting young key forwards.

Ruckmen I favour as rookies mostly with that being where the value is if you find one with scope to develop.

Key defenders draft position isn't as relevant as if they can win 1v1s, intercept mark and take a contested grab.

If you want to convert your picks. That's the way to draft for each of those three positions if I was to provide a general template to give clubs a feel for where they should take each position based on relative historical draft success.

 

[Bicks]

Knightmare I was watching some footage of last year's Championship's games last night looking more specifically at the under agers and was wondering where indigenous lad Tyrone Hayes has got to, is he injured or something as it seems he's only played one TAC game this year looking at the TAC stats for Gippy. Thought he was a player that would be in heavy discussion for this year's draft but seems to have fallen right off the radar??

 

[ringo1]

Knightmare I was watching some footage of last year's Championship's games last night looking more specifically at the under agers and was wondering where indigenous lad Tyrone Hayes has got to, is he injured or something as it seems he's only played one TAC game this year looking at the TAC stats for Gippy. Thought he was a player that would be in heavy discussion for this year's draft but seems to have fallen right off the radar??

Believe there could've been some discipline issues that have put him behind the 8 ball....hearing he is no hope to be picked up now.

 

[Bicks]

Believe there could've been some discipline issues that have put him behind the 8 ball....hearing he is no hope to be picked up now.

That's really disappointing, looked a real prospect last year.

 

[Hotpiescoldbeers]

Hi, could Sam Hayes be played as a key forward in a similar role to 2 meter peter, or do you see him more asa ruckman?

 

[blueiris]

With Ballenden playing as a ruckman in the Allies team will that push him down the Draft ratings much like Grundy and English

 

[CaptainMurphy]

With Ballenden playing as a ruckman in the Allies team will that push him down the Draft ratings much like Grundy and English

Not to the same extent I'd imagine because it's already been established he can play up forward. The same wasn't true of Grundy or English.

 

[Gollo]

Hi KM,
I understand its way too early to tell but how do you currently see Noah Balta going and will Liam Ryan be picked up in national draft or is he more of a rookie prospect?
cheers

There's a reason Liam Ryan wasn't picked up at all last year and it's why I cannot see him getting picked up at all this year - he ran a sub-11 beep at the WA Combine last year. That's simply not good enough for an AFL player and it, in my opinion, shows a problematic lack of determination and work ethic on his part. If you want to be an AFL player you must have the drive to at least improve your tank to that of a 12+ beep.

 

[Knightmare]

Knightmare I was watching some footage of last year's Championship's games last night looking more specifically at the under agers and was wondering where indigenous lad Tyrone Hayes has got to, is he injured or something as it seems he's only played one TAC game this year looking at the TAC stats for Gippy. Thought he was a player that would be in heavy discussion for this year's draft but seems to have fallen right off the radar??

Very talented and exceptionally quick but has reportedly had his disciplinary issues. Don't know if/when he'll get back to playing for Gippsland, but he's one who would certainly add to the quality of this draft class.

Hi, could Sam Hayes be played as a key forward in a similar role to 2 meter peter, or do you see him more asa ruckman?

Sam Hayes can play forward. A few weeks ago he did kick six goals.

In saying that, Hayes often feels quiet up forward and overall does not have the same impact as consistently as he does through the ruck where he is much more advanced.

I tend to look at Hayes as a number one ruck with the flexibility to push forward.

Wright for me was always a better forward than ruckman. Hayes is the reverse. Able forward, but better and more impactful ruckman.

With Ballenden playing as a ruckman in the Allies team will that push him down the Draft ratings much like Grundy and English

Clubs don't take ruckmen as early as they once did, with alternative pathways now + all the late and rookie bargains clubs have found by position throughout the years, and the relative lack of success early draft ruckmen have had.

Ballenden is also capable as a forward, so his stocks don't have to suffer greatly. He may drop to the back end of the first round, but still looks like a first round choice.

There's a reason Liam Ryan wasn't picked up at all last year and it's why I cannot see him getting picked up at all this year - he ran a sub-11 beep at the WA Combine last year. That's simply not good enough for an AFL player and it, in my opinion, shows a problematic lack of determination and work ethic on his part. If you want to be an AFL player you must have the drive to at least improve your tank to that of a 12+ beep.

Cyril was sub 12 in his draft year.

Endurance can improve in an AFL program.

As a forward, I find myself less concerned about his endurance as his talent and production. He's doing enough and doing damage when he gets it, so if he is doing so well with such a poor endurance base, imagine if he improved it how good he could become.

I'd have no problem selecting Ryan personally as a rookie if needing a forward.

 

[Knightmare]

AFL Draft weekly wrap with a focus on the AFL U18 trial matches and the VFL v WAFL game: http://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/...l-draft-wrap-zac-bailey-elevates-draft-stocks

 

[Jeffcrowe]

re. champs

Would really dig some reports of Nick Blakey or a report at the end on him? probably get some clicks on espn

Few clubs keen!

From what I've seen so far I will be surprised if he wasn't top 3 pick next year if not no 1 but it's going to be a belter draft

 

[Turbocat]

It is a more KPF heavy draft than normal. There is top end strength and overall depth of talls broadly. - Key forward, key defence and ruck.

Overall though it is a well below average draft strength with many fewer options in other positions and a reduced quality top to bottom.

There will be names late/rookie as with every year. I think many of those good ones might be top-agers though with several really performing in the state leagues and TAC Cup.

A podcast is an interesting idea. Thanks for bringing it up, I'm always interested to hear what others would have interest in hearing from me. Have not considered it. I'm time poor and do have a Monday-Friday job beyond writing for ESPN, but I'm always open to opportunities and doing extras. A live Q+A I expect I'll do again this year and in a few weeks I'll be doing another different piece beyond my weekly pieces and monthly power rankings.

Funnily, I've never taken the time to listen to an AFL draft related podcast, so I wouldn't have a clue how any of the other websites format them or what they cover. I was involved in one a few years back talking to Derek Hine for the Collingwood board - 2014 I believe it would have been from what I can best recall where I asked him several questions that interested me at the time.

If I was to expand out and if I had the time, I'd probably look towards some kind of sports debate segment (maybe video, maybe audio) where I debate draft or trade ideas in something like an ESPN First Take or Undisputed on FS1 style. Rather than a generic interview or whatever that the next website would do, that would be more so my style.

The best key forward in the draft is a cricketer. That says it all.

I think Brander and Balta are already better suited to playing as defenders. Neither have dominated to the level that you'd want from a first round key forward. Both seem better players when given the chance to run, and Brander given the chance to read the play and distribute the ball. Hayes has always been a better ruckman for me, and Coleman-Jones could head that way too given his extra growth this year. If not, I think he and Ballenden are both limited as forward prospects and are best suited to a #2 forward and part time ruck role.

Wooller is undersized, McLean hasn't come on this year as hoped. Kreuger has stalled a bit too, not having been settled into a position. Oscar Allen has potential, but he's not really ideal size - even though his marking makes up for that.

And I'm pretty sure you have a theory that key forwards should be drafted in the first round, or not at all? I think it's a good draft for key defenders, but the key forwards have question marks and few shape as guaranteed prospects for me.

Very insightful guys... Can I ask are we making the assertion that the depth of the draft..and the quality of KPF a bit too early?

Do we have any stats on players that would indicate they must be perform at this time of the year or they will probably not be of a standard good enough to get drafted or if drafted ..not last? I keeping think in terms of Oliver and how he looks so good now at AFL level yet he played little or an champs stuff. Sure the standard may be off a bit atm , you would have a terrific grasp for that ... but are we saying that this look like a churn draft this early? If we say KPP do take time , is it always a case that they stand out in juniors?

For eg.. reading Knightmare's stuff , now on ESPN... how many of the articles generally mention players that do get drafted ..would it be fair to say its probably less than half? Very interesting to see how early perceptive football eyes that see a lot of junior football can make that call.

 

[ringo1]

Very insightful guys... Can I ask are we making the assertion that the depth of the draft..and the quality of KPF a bit too early?

Do we have any stats on players that would indicate they must be perform at this time of the year or they will probably not be of a standard good enough to get drafted or if drafted ..not last? I keeping think in terms of Oliver and how he looks so good now at AFL level yet he played little or an champs stuff. Sure the standard may be off a bit atm , you would have a terrific grasp for that ... but are we saying that this look like a churn draft this early? If we say KPP do take time , is it always a case that they stand out in juniors?

For eg.. reading Knightmare's stuff , now on ESPN... how many of the articles generally mention players that do get drafted ..would it be fair to say its probably less than half? Very interesting to see how early perceptive football eyes that see a lot of junior football can make that call.

I think I agree with your thoughts . I find it difficult to comprehend how some players are 'chosen' ones despite poor output. This is the reason that the likes of Oliver get picked up. I believe that the Nationals are overplayed and that the form at TAC/VFL level still holds up. The Nationals to be have become a tall mans game whilst neglecting some truer footballers.

 

[briztoon]

Except Oliver didn't have poor output. He dominated the second half of the TAC cup season.

And it's not just BF posters talking about this draft. It's Cal Twomey on his Podcast, it's Brett Anderson on his pod cast, its D_P_S and Bishop all saying the same thing, the club scouts are saying it's a shallow draft.

There is some top end talent, but barring a couple of individuals, they have been pretty inconsistent.

After say the top 8 to 10, the quality really starts to fall away.

 

[Supersuns]

KM Do you believe any of the Suns Academy players will be drafted this year?
Crossley looks like what about the rest?

 

[HellasOle]

Where do you think Worpel will go now that he is injured

 

[Knightmare]

Very insightful guys... Can I ask are we making the assertion that the depth of the draft..and the quality of KPF a bit too early?

Do we have any stats on players that would indicate they must be perform at this time of the year or they will probably not be of a standard good enough to get drafted or if drafted ..not last? I keeping think in terms of Oliver and how he looks so good now at AFL level yet he played little or an champs stuff. Sure the standard may be off a bit atm , you would have a terrific grasp for that ... but are we saying that this look like a churn draft this early? If we say KPP do take time , is it always a case that they stand out in juniors?

For eg.. reading Knightmare's stuff , now on ESPN... how many of the articles generally mention players that do get drafted ..would it be fair to say its probably less than half? Very interesting to see how early perceptive football eyes that see a lot of junior football can make that call.

The KPF situation is fluid. Will, Will Sutherland enter this years AFL draft? Where will all those who have shown at stages potential as key forwards settle? More information is required and will become clearer over the course of the season.

Under-18 Championships are helpful but not the be-all-end-all. Clayton Oliver as you mentioned is one of the key examples. Wasn't selected to play Under-18 Champs but then second half of the season went BANG in the TAC Cup and earned his draft position.

Of the players I mention weekly. Probably less than half will get selected and I'm sure if you went through the players I spoke about last year your suspicion would be proven right. I mostly talk about a combination of draft relevant players but more so focus on who really performed that week. That doesn't always correspond perfectly with who will get chosen. If I'm talking about say a group of mature agers from last weekends VFL v WAFL game, not that many will be picked, 2-3 might, but if I mention 7-8 or whatever number it was I felt played well, clubs pick mature agers situationally, often based on list needs, so not all will get picked. Then you've got top agers who may dominate but often get overlooked despite quality of performances, because clubs recognise they're a year older and a year more mature and have much greater expectations of them. There are bottom agers I talk about regularly because they're performing, but they're still a year off and not featuring this year. Then there are others - the likes of Scharenberg last year who while they performed just don't get selected which can also happen.

I think I agree with your thoughts . I find it difficult to comprehend how some players are 'chosen' ones despite poor output. This is the reason that the likes of Oliver get picked up. I believe that the Nationals are overplayed and that the form at TAC/VFL level still holds up. The Nationals to be have become a tall mans game whilst neglecting some truer footballers.

I'm a production guy also. Having a point of different is helpful, and you're looking for guys who can ultimately find a way to impact games and influence the outcome. But if you're not finding or winning enough of the ball, too often you see these types don't translate. Whereas you have these guys who have performed simply go on to play in the state leagues and dominate there. Sometimes they get picked up later, and sometimes they don't.

Except Oliver didn't have poor output. He dominated the second half of the TAC cup season.

And it's not just BF posters talking about this draft. It's Cal Twomey on his Podcast, it's Brett Anderson on his pod cast, its D_P_S and Bishop all saying the same thing, the club scouts are saying it's a shallow draft.

There is some top end talent, but barring a couple of individuals, they have been pretty inconsistent.

After say the top 8 to 10, the quality really starts to fall away.

I'd say after the top 5-6 it drops away frankly.

KM Do you believe any of the Suns Academy players will be drafted this year?
Crossley looks like what about the rest?

Gold Coast have some worthwhile talent this year.

Crossley is good and a must get.

Jacob Dawson and Harry Simington also are worth selecting.

All three should feature around mid-draft I would have thought.

Sam Davidson also has talent and if last Sunday is any indication, I'd also be picking him too.