No we don't
The Rebuild - It's happening whether we admit it or not
- Thread starter GAsnr
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And that's the crux of the matter - success. There are 9 sides with a chance this year. Only one will be successful this season. Supporters of the clubs who do not win the flag will be very unhappy.
Including us. Even if we do get in and do some damage in September. Only a flag will do in our game.
Max Milburn
Norm Smith Medallist
Very insightful. Last year we made the prelim and it felt like a failure. (It was I guess). But this year if we make a prelim it will feel like we have squeezed something out of the season. It's a big if though. And not everybody will agree.
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It clearly already has with the way some people go about their buisness here.
catempire
Premium Platinum
Not for me. I enjoy the ride.
Not for mine..CE "Not only" ..
We seem to think we can maintain our ability to contend while turning over the side ... so we add mature players and play younger inexperienced players.. the drafting of mature players seems to have given us a higher success rate than the drafting of kids recently. They probably say Menegola has given them better value than Lang for example. Of course it has not always worked ..nothing works without fail. Some of the mature players we have brought in have been rubbish , and some of the kids have been short of what has been required..
But has any of the these mature drafts and trades stepped up to be A grades to replaced the Agrade we have already lost. Danger has for sure. but others ?.. and there has to be questions over most of the kids that we are playing.. the logic of picking Parsons and MOC rather than Thurlow/Murdoch almost locks in draft failure.. and once suspects Parson will probably fall to the same fate eventually. Passed by some new recruit or draftee.
Is that really rebuilding playing players that have deficiencies..that will probably see them as failures. If i understand you.. you feel we are rebuilding no matter the result because we are playing these kids.. almost like we are rebuilding but it might be a slapped up prefab that is barely legal building .. borderline capable of doing the job once the rebuild has been completed. To me rebuilding without adding enough quality ..its sounds like Westgate bridge before the collapse.
Id agree , the last two years have been a solid attempt at hitting the draft..but we really do not know yet if we have brought the quality that can replace our A grade players. Till we have those players to me its more of a continuation of what we have rather than a rebuild. I would admit that Enright's etc do not always resonate A grade at the start.
Perhaps its the time frame that I am getting conflicted about. Perhaps build for a long term list now is just old hat. If adding Danger is a rebuild then these rebuild are more for 5 years than 10 .. and it will only be another 2-3 years before we need to find another gun or 3 to trade in?
I'll take a bet against that.
catempire
Premium Platinum
See I think this is confusing the outcome with the process. Is it a rebuild? Unquestionably. Is it a successful rebuild? That will be judged in time.
Outcome and process.. you looking for a job in the industry?
OK in the jargon.. My pov is that if you have to have standards on the process..a PCP. a Process Control Plan and without adding (come up with a term) franchise/ a grade etc. kids then its not really a rebuild. Are you really cooking a cake if you don't put all the ingredients in it? There has to be some sort of expectation of success or you are not rebuilding you are just gambling resources.
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catempire
Premium Platinum
It’s a cake. It might just taste like cardboard.
It could also be a stew. I'll making a cake with meat and carrots etc. If you do not add controls to your process then you are not really building anything imo.. Its another pov difference thats we will not convince each other I guess. ..
My pov if we don't add players to replace the core, the foundation of the side then are not rebuilding , we are just cleaning the windows .. year by year Joel and Tom head towards where Harry is now... and our best player V the Hawks was a 34 yo past his best by a fair way.
catempire
Premium Platinum
Don’t agree with that premise.
JumpyHolden
Club Legend
- Apr 17, 2016
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So does that mean that every other club is also in rebuild mode because they are debuting similar numbers as us.
Swans 18
George Hewett
Callum Mills
Tom Papley
Aliir Aliir
Jack Hiscox
Harrison Marsh
Jordan Foote
Oliver Florent
Nic Newman
Will Hayward
Robbie Fox
Jordan Dawson
Lewis Melican
Ben Ronke
Tom McCartin
Ryley Stoddart
Colin O'Riordan
Darcy Cameron
Cats 16
Tom Ruggles
Sam Menegola
Tom Stewart
Brandan Parfitt
James Parsons
Mark O'Connor
Jordan Cunico
Wylie Buzza
Sam Simpson
Zach Guthrie
Lachie Fogarty
Tim Kelly
Esava Ratugolea
Jack Henry
Jamaine Jones
Quinton Narkle
Tigers 14
Daniel Rioli
Jayden Short
Jason Castagna
Nathan Broad
Oleg Markov
Adam Marcon
Callum Moore
Dan Butler
Ivan Soldo
Shai Bolton
Tyson Stengle
Jack Graham
Jack Higgins
Ryan Garthwaite
Liam Baker
Hawks 14
Marc Pittonet
Kieran Lovell
Kaiden Brand
Kade Stewart
Blake Hardwick
Kurt Heatherley
Ryan Burton
Teia Miles
James Cousins
Dallas Willsmore
Conor Glass
Harry Morrison
David Mirra
James Worpel
Mitchell Lewis
Pies 14
Matthew Goodyear
Mason Cox
Josh Smith
Ben Crocker
Tom Phillips
Rupert Wills
Callum Brown
Josh Daicos
Kayle Kirby
Jaidyn Stephenson
Sam Murray
Flynn Appleby
Brody Mihocek
Brayden Sier
GWS 13
Jacob Hopper
Matthew Kennedy
Harrison Himmelberg
Tim Taranto
Daniel Lloyd
Harry Perryman
Jeremy Finlayson
Will Setterfield
Zac Langdon
Nick Shipley
Isaac Cumming
Sam Taylor
Brent Daniels
Eagles 12
Tom Cole
Malcolm Karpany
Kurt Mutimer
Luke Partington
Liam Ryan
Jake Waterman
Daniel Venables
Willie Rioli
Jack Petruccelle
Brayden Ainsworth
Jarrod Brander
Oscar Allen
Dees 12
Clayton Oliver
Josh Wagner
Jayden Hunt
Christian Petracca
Sam Weideman
Mitch Hannan
Joel Smith
Tim Smith
Corey Maynard
Bayley Fritsch
Charlie Spargo
Harrison Petty
Port 12
Dougal Howard
Darcy Byrne-Jones
Logan Austin
Jesse Palmer
Riley Bonner
Will Snelling
Sam Powell-Pepper
Dan Houston
Brett Eddy
Aidyn Johnson
Joe Atley
Todd Marshall
Jarrod Lienert
Kane Farrell
When you have poor skills and a bottom six who struggle to get a kick or lay a tackle and you lose to the premiers by 5 points, you can safely say it isn’t the game plan.
So Chris Scott used the words “KPI” and said that he intentionally picks a kid instead of the best available?
I am sure there is some indication of intention to bring in kids but I don’t believe it was said in a KPI way as a must over the expense of picking the best side.
I can already say from that list just seeing the swans that you have stuffed the entire list up. Mills didn’t debut last two seasons and either did aliir or Papley. No need to check out the rest. You also put Tom ruggles in for Geelong
JumpyHolden
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That list is for 2016, 2017 and 2018
[in reply to my post about what is the measure of success]
So do I - enjoy the ride. Very much. But that's the metric used by so many m[winning a flag].
For me its AFL as a game first - I love it.
Cats come second.
I can enjoy a GF where for instance Sydney play WCE very much.......... Geelong didn't make it? OK maybe next year.
Ray Donovan
Staring into the abyss
Richmond might tank this week bringing essendon into the mix for a ratings bonanza Friday night clash with port
Ray Donovan
Staring into the abyss
great post
If you did a list on just 2017 and 2018 debutants, if we wanted to stretch back to 2016 Geelong only had two debutants in that year so it's probably doesn't work well.Geelong was also low on change of clubs but all those were surprisingly even 7 in 3 years only 3 in the last two seems to be slightly below the median Sydney has had zero which is a complete turn around from the old Sydney. These broad stats don't mean a lot though you need to break it down to games played, who is in the best 22.
2017 & 2018 plus 2016
North Melbourne ( 15 ) ( 17 )
Geelong ( 14 ) ( 16 )
Fremantle ( 14 ) ( 17 )
Sydney ( 11 ) ( 18 )
Gold Coast ( 11 ) ( 17 )
West Coast ( 10 ) ( 12 )
Carlton ( 10 ) ( 13 )
GWS ( 10 ) ( 13 )
Richmond ( 7 ) (14)
Collingwood ( 8 ) ( 14 )
Hawthorn ( 8 ) ( 14 )
Port ( 7 ) ( 12 )
Brisbane ( 10 ) (19)
Adelaide ( 9 ) (12)
It's a tough one to answer a lot of Geelong's talent in this department is mature age think Stewart, Menegola, Kelly although parfitt, ratugolea, Henry, Narkle all look good although i'm geelong biased. Sydney for depth probably wins Rich, Gws, Gee, Collingwood you will be able to dissect in a few years down the track.
Was very interesting when i looked into it though
JumpyHolden
Club Legend
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Even worst is that in our selected side this week we only have 6 of those debutants playing and 3 of them are mature age, realistic every other side this week would probably have just as many if not more debutants playing then us, seems we keep searching for the right kid but keep falling short so onto the next one which falsely inflates our numbers.
number of debutants doesn't really matter
if you are rebuilding then you are playing a number kids in key positions instead of an older but better player
we are just switching list cloggers and kids out to play forward pocket and giving the odd token game
catempire
Premium Platinum
If you are rebuilding you need to be replacing the whole list every 10-12 years as a rule of thumb. So half it every 5-6 years and a quarter every 2-3. 
Only Selwood and Taylor were in our best 18 in 2007/8. Hawkins was drafted and on the list then too. So we’ve probably added 40+ players since then, counting those that have come and gone.
By 2012, add Duncan, Murdoch, GHS, Guthrie and McCarthy. Roughly 30 players added since then. Of the current best 22, 13 would be new since then.
We added a bunch up to 2014/15 but we’ve also drafted heaps since then as the above posts evidence. Going by the rule of thumb you want 5-6 of your best 22 to come from list turnover in the last 2-3 years. We have:
Stewart
Parfitt
Ratugolea
Tuohy
Kelly
Menegola
Maybe even Henry
Fitting that bill.
Someone who doesn’t understand list management will point to their ages. In reality you want players good enough, regardless of age. If age gaps emerge you can target those specifically, as we have repeatedly proven.
Only Selwood and Taylor were in our best 18 in 2007/8. Hawkins was drafted and on the list then too. So we’ve probably added 40+ players since then, counting those that have come and gone.
By 2012, add Duncan, Murdoch, GHS, Guthrie and McCarthy. Roughly 30 players added since then. Of the current best 22, 13 would be new since then.
We added a bunch up to 2014/15 but we’ve also drafted heaps since then as the above posts evidence. Going by the rule of thumb you want 5-6 of your best 22 to come from list turnover in the last 2-3 years. We have:
Stewart
Parfitt
Ratugolea
Tuohy
Kelly
Menegola
Maybe even Henry
Fitting that bill.
Someone who doesn’t understand list management will point to their ages. In reality you want players good enough, regardless of age. If age gaps emerge you can target those specifically, as we have repeatedly proven.
I find the pessimism this year interesting. I feel it too with the disappointment of the last few weeks where we've been a bit off. Still if Gaz kicked the goal against Richmond and a few things went the other way against Hawthorn, we'd be talking double chances and premierships right now. I feel like we are a long way off, but we are probably less than it seems.
On the list, lose Harry and Gaz in the next year or so and we'll still have a very strong core in their prime with quality young guys coming through. Defensively we have been great this year, midfield is great, forwards are good too with the young guys roving and the Esava and Hawkins combo and Menzel and Menegola and even smith when he gets right.
On the list, lose Harry and Gaz in the next year or so and we'll still have a very strong core in their prime with quality young guys coming through. Defensively we have been great this year, midfield is great, forwards are good too with the young guys roving and the Esava and Hawkins combo and Menzel and Menegola and even smith when he gets right.
The top end talent opportunites we had to start were busts. Our bottom 6 are the problem..had the 3 first round picks in Thurlow, Caddy (Trade) and the Twig turned into A graders playing 100 games, problem solved. We co
uld have rebuilt and contended
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