Next premiership contender: Melbourne or Essendon?

[Topkent]

Maybe Hogan was a bigger loss than we think. He has attitude problems but he is a very good player. And with the best full back on him, he was taking the pressure off Tom McDonald, and even Gawn to creep forward.

Melbourne had 73 inside 50's yesterday for 6 goals. That is a huge number of forward entries. Geelong in comparison only had 48 inside 50's and kicked 20 goals. They had 10 more clearances than Geelong too. And Tom McDonald... 2 behinds. A side with a strong forward set up such as Adelaide or Hawthorn, with that differential of inside 50's would have won by 10 goals.

Melbourne should be fine. They need to fix their offense. With those numbers... the midfield is doing their job. Backline needs some work too... 20.6 is a bad score to give up. That's way too accurate, and indicative of a poor defensive set up with too many goals being kicked from directly in front and close in.

Essendon have more problems than Melbourne.

This is a myth though, agree with the rest of your post.

Tmac missed the first 6 rounds an we went 2-3 including a belting from Hawthorn an losing to Geelong after 16 more inside 50s.

When Tmac came into the side Hogan played up the ground an Tmac took the best defender. He was on Coleman medal pace, Hogan continually got in his space an averaged less than 2 goals a game against top 8 sides. Hogan went out of the side in round 21 an we went off an beat WC, GWS Geelong an Hawthorn with the much more positionally aware Weiderman.

Hogan wouldn't have made a single difference last night, was a terrible night for keys.

We need a Breust/Stephenson/Rioli/Walters type

 

[Del165198]

I thought champion data rated Melbourne the best list in the AFL

Shows that data doesn't know how to play football

 

[HFF]

I didn't like the Hogan trade at the end of the year and i still dont like it now.
I'ts easy to say he wouldn't have made a difference but he has kicked 40+ goals in 3 of the last 4 seasons and in the other he kicked 20 in just 10 games, so he was on track to do it again too.

When you take a 40+ goal kicker out of your side, it has to make a difference overall because you need to replace those goals somehow.
The brought in May and KK as part of his exchange, the conceded 20 goals last night and both had 6 and 5 disposals each.

McDonald may have kicked 50 last year- but who's to say it wasn't an element of surprise type year?
Weideman is a kid who has kicked 16 goals in 20 games going into this year.
Hogan has kicked 152 in 71.

 

[si tacuisses]

Melbourne were bad, but it was in Geelong, and Cats are playing well. The Dons were just... shameful.

 

[kozi]

Dees have heart but no speed.
Essendon have speed but no heart.

Need both.

 

[Red Bull]

If there is a division in the playing list its a major major problem.
That on top of existing problems re team structure , coaching , leadership etc etc etc paints the picture of a club in dire straits.
If this season spirals downwards , the price paid for Shiel will be enormous.

 

[Cold Sober]

Essendon couldn't beat an injured duck to death, wouldn't be surprised to see Melb kick 30 plus next week.

 

[yeee_haaaa!!!!!]

Melbourne

In 2058

 

[HTT]

I’d give the dees some leeway. The competition is all over the shop atm. GWS were unreal last week, then got smacked by WC who were poor last week. Premature to write off a side that made the prelim last year - they weren’t looking brilliant this time last year either.

Blowtorch has to be on the Dons though. Annually the most hyped team. Annually fail to live up to these expectations. After a slow start last year cost them, I’d have thought they’d get on top of things early. Remind me a bit of Richmond 14-15 where we had a slow start in 2015 after clearly not learning enough from our 3-10 disaster in 2014. Clearly you can turn it around, but there might have to be a bit of a clean out in the coaching ranks.

 

[PAFC_1870]

Fascinating games next week... All bar those on Sunday are intriguing.

This as much as any.

 

[Andy_Mac]

73 inside 50’s for 6 goals. That says it all.

Dees were the highest scoring side last year, you don’t just lose that overnight. Yes Hogan kicked 40, but Weid will kick 30 so it’s not going to be the end of the world.

 

[WilloTree]

Essendon couldn't beat an injured duck to death, wouldn't be surprised to see Melb kick 30 plus next week.

Dodoro would trade the duck.

 

[ziad]

Dees have heart but no speed.
Essendon have speed but no heart.

Need both.

merge them and send the to tasmania

 

[Happy Mastenator]

Melbourne seem to use melksham as a key target inside 50 way to often to be a good team.

 

[Johnny_Dogg4]

73 inside 50’s for 6 goals. That says it all.

Dees were the highest scoring side last year, you don’t just lose that overnight. Yes Hogan kicked 40, but Weid will kick 30 so it’s not going to be the end of the world.

thats a factor .
what about cheap slingshot goals out the back? i watched a lot of dees games and it was an avenue to score a fair bit of goals.

with the new kickin rule, the zone has been pushed back 20-30 m to almost forward of center wing. its becoming harder to get over the back

 

[Obeanie1]

Whichever club employs the best sports psychologist.

Both teams have the raw talent but what is happening between the ears is anyones guess.

 

[juss]

Demons aren't that bad, but have started horribly. They were off guard in round 1, not acceptable but it happens, and then smashed by a very good Cats team at a venue they never lose at. They will at least compete and can turn things around. There is upside there.

Essendon look hopeless, just got embarrassed by a team that will finish bottom 3, that only just scraped a win against another bottom 3 mob. And they looked like they didnt even care about it up until the second half. Their best forward is on the sidelines and their midfield is lacking a match winner. Too many passengers but without the elite top end to carry them along.

 

[LuckyBounce!]

Geez I’m enjoying seeing Melbourne and Essendon struggling! May it continue...

 

[Damon_3388]

Dodoro would trade the duck.

The duck is "the next Chris Judd".

 

[Damon_3388]

Melbourne seem to use melksham as a key target inside 50 way to often to be a good team.

He was borderline All-Australian last year as a small forward, and one of the league leaders in goal assists. He's evolved into a good, creative player up front.

 

[Damon_3388]

If this season spirals downwards , the price paid for Shiel will be enormous.

He's been Essendon's best player in the two games so far, so he's holding up his end.

 

[Damon_3388]

We need a Breust/Stephenson/Rioli/Walters type

I said it a few times last year, but I feel like the Dees should have gone for Steven Motlop (or a similar type) instead of Jake Lever in the last trade/FA period. Doubling down on more defenders in May and KK this year is a little puzzling as well. It's like they're just trying to accumulate names, rather than fill gaps and needs and improve the balance of the side and the list.

 

[Jesse Custer]

Melbourne

In 2058

Essendon in 2088

 

[Happy Mastenator]

He was borderline All-Australian last year as a small forward, and one of the league leaders in goal assists. He's evolved into a good, creative player up front.

Comment was on now they end up in a position using him as a key target, not as a small forward. He contributed, but when he’s your target up forward it’s not ideal.

 

[Scythe]

Comment was on now they end up in a position using him as a key target, not as a small forward. He contributed, but when he’s your target up forward it’s not ideal.

He’s an outstanding one on one player. Uses his body very well and has a good set of hands. No issue with him being a target (unless of course he’s up against multiple, bigger opponents).